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continuousprediction — Formulating Model-based RL Dynamics as a continuous rather then one step prediction
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20 September
19 September
18 September
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Their words
It's isn't just to people with ADHD that this happens. Some tasks inherently take a certain amount of time. An appointment that breaks the afternoon into two blocks of time could leave you with no block long enough to complete a task.
17 September
16 September
14 September
13 September
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Their words
Now recently the U.S. economy has experienced a huge positive shock to its Intelligence, with more to come. The core prediction is that this increases marginal returns, employment, and real wages in the Polanyi knowledge sector.
A simple model of AI-aided economic growthmarginalrevolution.com
10 September
7 September
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Their words
The AI jobs prediction so far is playing out the opposite of what many thought.
4 September
From one piece Why Fei-Fei Li Is Betting on Spatial Intelligence 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
New view prediction is to spatial intelligence what next token prediction is to language.Their words
we do believe very strongly that next viewpoint prediction is is the equivalent of next token prediction.
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Their words
So okay, so to take a evolutionary view, right? That new viewpoint prediction is exactly evolution had to solve by making animals move. You you nature give animals eyes. But nature didn't give trees eye. Eyes. Why? Because when you move, you see a new viewpoint.
3 September
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Lovedrcmnd.app
GPT-6 AstraTheir words
GPT-6 Astra represents a step-function change in model capability for interactive reasoning problems. It scores 66% on ARC-AGI-3 using our standard harness, and nearly 100% with a continuous conversation harness and custom compaction, at a cost of roughly $360 per game.
2 September
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Their words
I worry a lot about reliances on continuity failing at exactly the most dangerous time.
31 August
- Mastodon
- NewsletterIssue 109 – Reg Crypto
26 August
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Their words
This is complete nonsense, a shame that The Economist has been taken in by it.
25 August
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korrents.com
The froth visible in US markets in 2025 was the 2021 mania returning, and reason enough to take risk off.Their words, before
It’s not that any one of these things represents a mania, but collectively they do. And I know what can happen after that mania.
Their words now
Since then U.S. stocks are up 16% (total return) and my bearish prediction turned out to be misguided.
23 August
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Their words
/Z, /J, and /MT are not levels on a performance slider. They change restartability, buffering, and concurrency.
21 August
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Their words
The debt dynamics work the same for a central government as they do for a person or a company, except that a central government has a central bank that can print money (which devalues it) and it can take money away from people via taxes.
20 August
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korrents.com
Well-functioning systems succeed through continuous debugging rather than perfect initial design.Their words
When things work well, it's usually not because they were designed perfectly, but because they are constantly being debugged.
17 August
13 August
7 August
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This is a little bit different than actually literally I vector centrality but it's very similar and so we call this technique IGEN reviews and I've become convinced that this is more or less the right way to do performance reviews.
3 August
29 July
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And I wonder sometimes if that is the reason people don't recognize the use of math in software engineering is because the math they do need is not the math they've been exposed to.
26 July
14 July
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Decisions: Studying and Supporting People Facing Hard ChoicesTheir words
His narrative of the development of decision-making research over the past half-century is rich with personal anecdotes, gentle humor, continuous learning, and profound humility about how prone we all are to misjudge and misunderstand risks.
6 July
5 July
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Their words
The emotional and relational dynamics are not an intrusion upon the work of prescribing. They are a part of the work itself.
29 June
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Their words
In truth, rather rapid electrification projects, without decade-by-decade continuity, exist outside the UK and are often quite reasonable in their costs, as in Denmark, Israel, and especially India.
9 June
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Their words
a more common trait that's related in the entrepreneurial world is obsessive learning like constant learning because the disruptions that allow for the technology waves that allow for companies to be disruptive and take market share from an incumbent are all tied to something dynamic that's happening on the edge.
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Lovedrcmnd.app
ObstetrixTheir words
All told, this is a read-in-one-sitting thriller that does as much to illuminate the workings and dynamics of patriarchy and religion as any gender studies class. It's peak Kritzer (so far), and that's saying something.
4 June
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Their words
but of course, that's not what's happened, because as we've accumulated more wealth and you know, more advanced machines and and so on, we've expanded the range of things other than singers to spend our money on, and the share spent on singers has stayed sort of negligible. Um so likewise, that's sort of my central prediction about how future unfolds, though I it could go either way.
From one piece The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And if you look at Ricardo's predictions, they're actually right. If you look at all those jobs that made money in Ricardo's time, they got automated. So, if I was David Ricardo and I woke up and somebody told me all those jobs did get automated. And you ask me David Ricardo, like what do you think the prime age employment rate is in 2026? I think he would be surprised if you told him it was the highest it's ever been other than 2000.
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Their words
rather than thinking about individual forecasts like what me and Phil are going to do, rather looking at kind of like basically generating prediction markets, where you get aggregate forecasts, where you get like kind of wisdom of the crowd effects. And kind of the reason that I think this is because we have been famously terrible at forecasting.
27 May
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Their words
It's like everyone is just saying mantras to themselves cuz the root thing that's going on here is we are experiencing a moment of great change. Everyone is very nervous about what that means for their own position in it. a defense mechanism is to confidently assert a future in which you're a winner. And that's almost what every single prediction that you see is happening.
25 May
24 May
From one piece AI predictions: Job markets, Codex beats Claude, and the death of org charts | Dan Shipper 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
SaaS stocks are a buy right now.Their words
So, this is another good prediction. I would buy SAS stocks right now.
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Their words
Here's a prediction. I'm pretty sure every coding model on the market will still do this in a year. Every coding model on the market will take that instruction seriously.
23 May
13 May
13 April
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Their words
Fifth, for IIT to fit with current successful theories in fundamental physics, a reformulation in terms of continuous fields would be needed.
23 March
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I don't love the other methods, which is continuous improvement. The problem with continuous improvement, it… First of all, you should engineer something from first principles at the speed, you know, with speed of light thinking. Limit it only by physical limits, and physics limits. And after that, of course you would improve it over time.
18 February
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Their words
Forecasting AI capabilities is closer in kind to solving a thermodynamics equation than solving the three-body problem.
13 February
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But but that's actually a very weak criterion, right? People thought I was saying like we won't need 90% of the software engineers. Those things are worlds apart, right?
6 February
13 January
11 January
7 January
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Lovedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Continuous Discovery HabitsTheir words
Teresa Torres is the best in the business at helping teams build products and services that their customers want. Here she shares her techniques for transforming your process into one of continuous discovery and learning.
28 December 2025
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Likedrcmnd.app
Jurassic ParkTheir words
Jurassic Park by Michael Crichton is a surprisingly weird and weirdly underrated novel given how many copies it sold and the popularity of the blockbuster franchise it spawned. The story weaves together many apparently disparate threads and there are extensive speculative digressions into the biotechnology, business interests, and institutional dynamics that make the park possible and its dissolution inevitable. If the movie is supremely entertaining, the book is supremely thought-provoking.
8 December 2025
18 November 2025
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Their words
Thus my personal prediction is that in domains that are already largely under the powers of modern AI, such as languages, programming or chess, we’re going to see a divergence in human abilities.
17 October 2025
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Their words
so a good example recently was um Jeff Hinton's prediction that radiologists would not be a job anymore and this turned out to be very wrong in a bunch of ways right so radiologists are alive and well and growing even though computer vision is really really good at recognizing all the different things that they have to recognize
26 September 2025
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Their words
If you go to look about how psychologists think about learning, there's nothing like uh imitation. Maybe there are some extreme cases where humans might do that or appear to do that, but there's no basic animal learning process called imitation.
22 September 2025
12 September 2025
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Their words
And when you make a mistake and correct it, well, first you you've achieved the task because you've corrected, but you've also gained knowledge that allows you to avoid that mistake in the future. With driving, because of the dynamics of how it's set up, it's very hard to make a mistake, correct it, and then learn from it because the mistakes themselves have significant ramifications.
23 July 2025
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Their words
I think to the extent that it can predict the next frames in a coherent way, that is a form of understanding, not in the anthropomorphic version of, it's not some kind of deep philosophical understanding of what's going on, I don't think these systems have that, but they certainly have modeled enough of the dynamics, put it that way
4 July 2025
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korrents.com
Using a neural network is likely to become easier than designing a custom-tuned prediction algorithm for many tasks.Their words
in 2025 it might end up being easier to just throw a neural net at the problem, instead of a custom-designed-and-tuned prediction algorithm!
14 June 2025
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Their words
There are certainly math results which could only have been accomplished because there was a human authentication and an AI involved, but it's hard to disentangle credit. I mean, these tools, they do not replicate all the skills needed to do mathematics, but they can replicate some non-trivial percentage of them, 30, 40%, so they can fill in gaps.
12 May 2025
23 April 2025
8 January 2025
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Their words
Structural fiscal deficits have surpassed private sector lending and monetary policy as the primary drivers of economic activity and inflation, marking a fundamental shift in the economy's liquidity dynamics.
16 December 2024
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The Engineering Executive's PrimerTheir words
"It’s honest in how it covers topics like navigating tricky power dynamics with CEOs, surviving 'peer panic,' dealing with competition within leadership teams, and in its overall breadth and depth."
6 November 2024
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Nonlinear Dynamics and ChaosTheir words
Pictures, examples, geometric intuition.
1 October 2024
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korrents.com
Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.Their words
To summarize the above, my basic prediction is that AI-enabled biology and medicine will allow us to compress the progress that human biologists would have achieved over the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.
19 September 2024
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Their words
So for these reasons, I (unfortunately) do not expect any big AI-driven breakthroughs in biological understanding any time soon.
1 September 2024
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Their words
I also have another less optimistic prediction: as soon as the concept of founder mode becomes established, people will start misusing it. Founders who are unable to delegate even things they should will use founder mode as the excuse. Or managers who aren't founders will decide they should try to act like founders.
13 June 2024
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Their words
I think large language models are kind of like the genetic system for language in some sense, where it’s allowing an archiving that’s highly dynamic.
25 May 2024
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Their words
is this idea that we form these internal models at particular points of high prediction error or points of, I believe also points of uncertainty, points of surprise or motivationally significant periods. And those points are when it’s maximally optimal to encode an episodic memory.
9 March 2024
18 February 2024
2 January 2024
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Their words
Life expectancy isn’t a prediction of how long people will live.
30 November 2023
12 November 2023
30 October 2023
28 September 2023
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Recommendsaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
MisbeliefTheir words
Dan Ariely's book Misbelief is a must-listen for anyone trying to understand how social dynamics are changing the way some people see the world.
1 September 2023
2 August 2023
28 July 2023
4 July 2023
31 January 2023
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
This Corner of the UniverseTheir words
Mind candy: Military SF by someone who must've spent a big chunk of time in the (US?) military. The novel is good on the inter-personal dynamics of the service and especially of the small ship.
20 October 2022
7 September 2022
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korrents.com
The primordial soup is a miracle story: life needs a continuous flow of reaction, and a soup can never provide one.Their words
So, how did they do that? You may as well say that a miracle happened. I don’t believe in soup. I think what we have in a vent is a continuous conversion, a continuous growth, a continuous reaction, a continuous converting a flow of molecules into more of yourself, you might say, even if it’s a small bit.
6 August 2022
25 July 2022
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Their words, before
If you get a check during a pandemic, you’re not going to go out and spend it at restaurants and bars, because…well, there’s a pandemic. Instead, you’re more likely to stick it in the bank, pay down debt, or pay the back rent that you owe.
Their words now
I had some theory and some evidence on my side for this prediction, and yet I ended up being very wrong about what would happen to consumption.
15 July 2022
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Their words
In order to move this army or sustain it in place it is thus necessary to ensure a massive and relatively continuous supply of food to the army. Failure to do that will result in the army falling apart long before it comes anywhere close to the enemy.
15 July 2021
From one piece Highly accurate protein structure prediction with AlphaFold (with 33 co-authors) 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Despite these advances, contemporary physical and evolutionary-history-based approaches produce predictions that are far short of experimental accuracy in the majority of cases in which a close homologue has not been solved experimentally and this has limited their utility for many biological applications.
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Their words
Despite recent progress10-14, existing methods fall far short of atomic accuracy, especially when no homologous structure is available.
18 January 2021
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Their words
Just because we use a different branch of math doesn't mean we're not doing engineering.
11 January 2021
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Their words
Not only are the traditional staples of classic value investing (readily discernable quantitative measures of cheapness in the here-and-now) no longer likely to produce a sustainable edge on their own, but the world has gotten more complex, with many more dynamics that can drive a decoupling of near-term metrics from valuation, both to the positive and negative.
Something of Value (memo to Oaktree clients)oaktreecapital.com
20 October 2020
24 August 2020
30 June 2020
5 June 2020
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Likedrcmnd.app
suckless toolsTheir words
Suckless offers an alternative to this continuous cycle of bloat and meaningless redesign. Suckless tools aim to keep things simple, minimal, usable and hackable by default.
1 February 2019
11 September 2018
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