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Tynan Blog
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14 September
11 September
10 September
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Their words
Young people tend to be happier than older generations, but not in the Anglosphere
6 September
2 September
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Their words
there is evidence that the reversal effect has weakened over time, leaving investors who bet on mean reversion and a return to fundamentals in the lurch
1 September
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korrents.com
Launch costs are on a declining trajectory comparable to Moore's Law-driven chip cost declines in the 1990s.Their words
One reason Starcloud has been so successful at fundraising is that it's a bet on launch costs decreasing, and that's like betting on Moore's Law in the 1990s.
24 August
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Their words
Among the Silent Generation (born 1925–1945), only 15% of parents had a single child. It was 22% of Boomers and 27% of Generation X.
Do Religious Families Actually Have More Kids?graphsaboutreligion.com
11 August
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Their words
And so there's some like deep underlying properties of the model that are being sort of transferred between model generations because basically you you train your AI on data from the prior generation and keep going.
3 August
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korrents.com
Betting a robotics company on today's component prices is betting it on a number with a short shelf life.Their words
So, betting your company, betting your approach on today's hardware prices is just betting your company on a number that has a fairly short shelf life and is going to expire.
31 July
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Likedrcmnd.app
The Thinking Woman's Guide to Real MagicTheir words
Mind candy fantasy: in which an early-21st-century American young woman, whose English-lit thesis and love life are going equally poorly, does a good deed; gets rewarded with three wishes, without realizing it; and, in consequence, wanders off, first into Faery and then into a Fantasyland which is convincingly poor, sexist and dirty, but also magical.
27 July
From one piece Boris Cherny: We Cut 80% of Claude Code's Prompt 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And the reason is every model is very different. So, something that you did for one model maybe 3 months ago, it just might not translate at all to the next model.
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Their words
I think evals, they outlive the harness a little bit, but not by that much. Like an eval might live for maybe one, two, three model generations, but nowadays the you know, we're on the exponential. The model is improving so quickly, very often we just saturate the eval, and then we have to throw it away, and we have to come up with a new eval.
26 June
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Their words
And I wouldn't be surprised if you know 6 months or a year from now, the model is able to do zero shot an entire poker solver, basically my entire PhD thesis in one go.
24 June
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Their words
The only reason I suggested that even in the title was that I think if you have an attitude of like you don't want to try hard, or you don't like you don't want to do things yourself, and you don't want to to dig deeper into things, like you need to do that. You need to do certain things. And if you're not willing to do that, I think you should know like what you're getting yourself into
18 June
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Their words
Much of active investing is built around publicly available information and a belief in the power of mean reversion, not original research and seeking information.
16 June
From one piece Machiavelli is the most misunderstood thinker of all time – Ada Palmer 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Every new information technology is followed by a wave of censorship in which a great many books are banned at once.Their words
mini thesis, every time there's a new information technology, there's a subsequent wave of censorship to try to censor the new technology and a bajillion books get banned all at once.
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And everyone says, "Why are they liking this man? He is a cruel murdering tyrant." And the answer is for the first time in generations, they have had something close to fair justice.
4 June
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korrents.com
Younger generations are rejecting AI hype while older generations, who stand to benefit from it, remain optimisticTheir words
there's a consistent theme where Gen Z (and millennials, to some extent) are rejecting the AI hype while older generations are optimistic and coincidentally in a position to benefit from it.
2 June
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korrents.com
AI as it is currently deployed bends towards demoralisation rather than towards flourishing.Their words
My working thesis about the generalized impact of “AI” as it is currently deployed can be summed up in the observation that the arc of AI bends toward demoralization.
9 May
8 May
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Their words
And so one possible explanation for that is just that there's only a handful of generations maybe five over which the natural selection would operate. And so maybe if the selection was 2% a generation you would still only see maybe a 10% compounded effect and there's just not enough time to detect it. But the Bronze Age is not 300 years, it's 3,000 years. It's the power of compound interest and you have enough time to begin to see a strong effect.
2 April
22 March
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Their words
Oh, I agree. You know, one is being able to clearly articulate the problem or the thesis or the idea. Without trying, I don't get there.
13 March
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So when you look at inference at let's say 100 tokens a second for deepseek and kimk 2.5 hopper versus blackwell the performance difference is on the order of 20x
12 February
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The robot arm base case saves some hourly labor at the expense of adding more skilled labor, and can easily be negative if it needs reprogramming more than a few times per year.
9 December 2025
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By this broader definition, humans have never been truly sustainable.
8 September 2025
18 August 2025
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Brett and I like betting and one of the bets we have is the year in which greater than 50% of conversations with agents built on Sierra are with people's personal agents. So agents talking to agents.
23 July 2025
From one piece Demis Hassabis: Future of AI, Simulating Reality, Physics and Video Games | Lex Fridman Podcast #475 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So my betting is that it's mostly it is just classical computing that's going on in the brain, which suggests that all the phenomena are modelable or mimicable by a classical computer.
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I think fusion and solar are the two that I would bet on. Solar, I mean it's the fusion reactor in the sky of course, and I think really the problem there is batteries and transmission.
15 July 2025
6 April 2025
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Automation will not save us.
3 February 2025
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Their words
The short-term that company that could make the most money is the one that figures out what advertising targeting method works for language model generations.
19 January 2025
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inflationimmigrationgovernment
Their words
And so my argument is, that has now opened the door to the presidency of Donald Trump, which is potentially a deeply transformative moment that will change the size and shape of government, that may change our foreign policy profoundly, that may change our immigration policy, that may change the demographics of our country, all of that, and my thesis is that that's all been made possible by inflation.
5 August 2024
25 May 2024
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Their words
about this idea that really when you’re older in most societies, your job is no longer to form new episodic memories, it’s to pass on the memories that you already have, this knowledge about the world, what we call semantic memory, to pass on that semantic memory to the younger generations, pass on the culture.
21 May 2024
2 January 2024
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korrents.com
Every age of life is less deadly than it was for the generation before, not just childhood.Their words
Each age of our lives is less deadly than it was for previous generations.
16 August 2023
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