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18 September
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
17 September
Security technologist and author of books including Applied Cryptography and Data and Goliath; writes the Schneier on Security blog and the monthly Crypto-Gram newsletter.
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
14 September
Software engineer, Wikipedia editor and crypto critic; writes Citation Needed and runs Web3 is Going Just Great.
Programmer and writer; co-founder of Stack Overflow and Discourse, and author of the Coding Horror blog, which he has written since 2004.
"The effort from Conway’s San Francisco-based investment firm SV Angel, dubbed Project Blueprint, intends to fill a vacuum between policymakers and the AI industry ahead of a midterm cycle where Democrats are poised to make gains in Congress" politico.com
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12 September
Mathematical physicist at UC Riverside. Wrote This Week's Finds in Mathematical Physics and now the Azimuth blog on mathematics, physics and environmental science.
The Republican Party's midterm convention used the traditional red, white and blue decorations - but added Trump's favorite color: gold. I recommend that they use a new US flag. The traditional colors were red for blood, white for purity and blue for justice. The new version features red for blood, gold for wealth and purple for monarchy. Related
5 September
American historian of Central and Eastern Europe and the Holocaust; author of Bloodlands, On Tyranny and On Freedom, and writer of the newsletter 'Thinking about...'.
3 September
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
From one piece
Beware big swings in midterm forecasts
2 beliefs · natesilver.net
21 August
Founder and CEO of Social Capital, a venture firm; co-host of the All-In podcast and an early Facebook executive. Writes an annual letter and a weekly newsletter on markets and technology.
3 June
Writes Very Serious, a newsletter on politics, the economy and culture, and hosts the podcast of the same name.
18 March
Investigative journalist on policing, forensics and criminal justice; wrote Rise of the Warrior Cop and writes The Watch.
30 June 2025
Writes Don't Worry About the Vase, a near-daily account of what is happening in AI and what they think it means. Former Magic: the Gathering pro and trader; unusually willing to put a number on a belief and to grade their own past calls.
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He offers a unique form of grounding on political, sports and other issues, and a way of bridging my kinds of ideas into mainstream discourse. I almost never regret reading.
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thezvi.substack.com
27 March 2025
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
Their words
but I recommend Abundance to the Silver Bulletin audience.
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natesilver.net
15 April 2024
Deep-learning researcher and Turing Award laureate; founder of the Mila institute.
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A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one
sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at
korrents.com .
Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said.
The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in
korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who
else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public
statements, and a person can change their mind, which is recorded too.
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About the English under a post
Some people here publish in a language other than English. Where they
do, this site shows a machine translation beneath the post, in
this typeface — the site's own, not theirs.
The post itself is never changed, moved or hidden: what is set in the
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quote them on. A translation can be wrong in ways that matter,
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are left in their original language.
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