Nate Silver
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
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What they believe
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It would take a massive October surprise or a bigger-than-2016 polling error to save the Republican majority in the House, despite Republicans’ aggressive redistricting.
It would take a massive October surprise or a bigger-than-2016 polling error to save the Republican majority there, despite Republicans’ aggressive redistricting.
natesilver.netSaid 13 Oct 2026This on korrents
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There remains a very real chance — about 1 in 4 — that Republicans keep the Senate despite Democrats’ seeming momentum.
There remains a very real chance — about 1 in 4 — that Republicans keep the Senate despite Democrats’ seeming momentum.
natesilver.netSaid 9 Oct 2026This on korrents
The bold line is korrents’ wording; the quote is theirs. These 2: what they wrote before what they said aloud, one per source, newest first.
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As its own page →Hiding
16 October
15 October
13 October
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Their words
It would take a massive October surprise or a bigger-than-2016 polling error to save the Republican majority there, despite Republicans’ aggressive redistricting.
9 October
From one piece Could Minnesota spoil the blue wave? 2 beliefs · natesilver.net
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Their words
Perpetually increasing polarization means that: 1) fewer states are competitive; 2) there’s less and less ticket-splitting, so races for Congress are more predictable based on presidential voting and 3) “candidate effects,” including incumbency, are weaker, so there’s less opportunity for a candidate with strong personal qualities to overcome the partisan tide.
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Their words
There remains a very real chance — about 1 in 4 — that Republicans keep the Senate despite Democrats’ seeming momentum.
8 October
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Their words
Overall, there isn’t much evidence that female candidates face an electoral penalty, although that deserves a deeper analysis.
6 October
From one piece The Democrats’ AI primary is heating up 2 beliefs · natesilver.net
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korrents.com
Presidential candidates will almost certainly begin announcing their bids in early 2027.Their words
Those primaries might feel a long way off, but remember, candidates will almost certainly start to announce their bids in early 2027.
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Their words
But not everyone is so bullish on AI, and with the arguably alarming rate at which the models are improving, this issue is likely to become more relevant before 2028.
3 October
From one piece What if the polls are wrong again? 2 beliefs · natesilver.net
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Their words
In the 9 midterms or presidential years I’ve covered since FiveThirtyEight launched in 2008, polls have had a systematic bias against Democrats once, in 2012, a systematic bias against Republicans four times (the three Trump presidential elections + 2014), and were basically unbiased in the other four elections, including in the past two midterms.
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korrents.com
Polls may be biased in either directionTheir words
Systematic polling errors are common. Polls might be biased against Republicans again. Or against Democrats.
1 October
From one piece Why did Ohio stop being a swing state? 2 beliefs · natesilver.net
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korrents.com
Ohio has become much redder in the Trump EraTheir words
all three Big Ten states have become much redder in the Trump Era — but Ohio more so than the others.
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korrents.com
Democrats' voter-targeting efforts are plausibly more efficient and effective than Republicans' efforts under Trump.Their words
Democrats’ voter-targeting efforts are plausibly more efficient and effective than the Republican ones under Trump.
Nothing matches.
Beliefs
Korrents What they believe 26 beliefs — each backed by an exact quote.
Each is a — compiled by korrents.com, not by them: the one-line wordings are korrents', the quotes are theirs.
Recent
It would take a massive October surprise or a bigger-than-2016 polling error to save the Republican majority in the House, despite Republicans’ aggressive redistricting.
It would take a massive October surprise or a bigger-than-2016 polling error to save the Republican majority there, despite Republicans’ aggressive redistricting.
Will Republican gerrymanders become dummymanders? Said 13 Oct 2026
There remains a very real chance — about 1 in 4 — that Republicans keep the Senate despite Democrats’ seeming momentum.
There remains a very real chance — about 1 in 4 — that Republicans keep the Senate despite Democrats’ seeming momentum.
Could Minnesota spoil the blue wave? Said 9 Oct 2026
Perpetually increasing polarization means that fewer states are competitive, there is less ticket-splitting, and candidate effects are weaker.
Perpetually increasing polarization means that: 1) fewer states are competitive; 2) there’s less and less ticket-splitting, so races for Congress are more predictable based on presidential voting and 3) “candidate effects,” including incumbency, are weaker, so there’s less opportunity for a candidate with strong personal qualities to overcome the partisan tide.
Could Minnesota spoil the blue wave? Said 9 Oct 2026
Show 23 more
There is not much evidence that female candidates face an electoral penalty.
Overall, there isn’t much evidence that female candidates face an electoral penalty, although that deserves a deeper analysis.
The left’s fortunes have been rising. Will 2028 be AOC’s moment? Said 8 Oct 2026
AI is likely to become a more relevant issue before 2028.
But not everyone is so bullish on AI, and with the arguably alarming rate at which the models are improving, this issue is likely to become more relevant before 2028.
The Democrats’ AI primary is heating up Said 6 Oct 2026
Presidential candidates will almost certainly begin announcing their bids in early 2027.
Those primaries might feel a long way off, but remember, candidates will almost certainly start to announce their bids in early 2027.
The Democrats’ AI primary is heating up Said 6 Oct 2026
Polls may be biased in either direction
Systematic polling errors are common. Polls might be biased against Republicans again. Or against Democrats.
What if the polls are wrong again? Said 3 Oct 2026
Across nine election years since 2008, polls were biased against Democrats once, against Republicans four times, and basically unbiased four times.
In the 9 midterms or presidential years I’ve covered since FiveThirtyEight launched in 2008, polls have had a systematic bias against Democrats once, in 2012, a systematic bias against Republicans four times (the three Trump presidential elections + 2014), and were basically unbiased in the other four elections, including in the past two midterms.
What if the polls are wrong again? Said 3 Oct 2026
Democrats' voter-targeting efforts are plausibly more efficient and effective than Republicans' efforts under Trump.
Democrats’ voter-targeting efforts are plausibly more efficient and effective than the Republican ones under Trump.
Why did Ohio stop being a swing state? Said 1 Oct 2026
Ohio has become much redder in the Trump Era
all three Big Ten states have become much redder in the Trump Era — but Ohio more so than the others.
Why did Ohio stop being a swing state? Said 1 Oct 2026
Fuel price inflation is much higher in diesel-heavy farm states and may explain some surprisingly competitive Senate races.
Inflation in fuel prices is much higher in diesel-heavy farm states — and may explain some surprisingly competitive Senate races.
Diesel prices could crush Republicans in the heartland Said 22 Sept 2026
Democratic polling overperformance has generally been strongest in the central U.S., in rural, agricultural, and energy-producing states.
But generally, Democratic polling overperformance has been strongest in the middle part of the country, in rural, agricultural states and in states that are big energy producers.
Diesel prices could crush Republicans in the heartland Said 22 Sept 2026
Cautious expert race ratings, like Cook's, are misaligned with the long history of strong opposition performance in midterms under unpopular presidents.
Conversely, expert ratings imply a much different political environment. The Cook Political Report, for example, counts seven races as “toss-ups,” including states like New Hampshire where models and prediction markets imply that Democrats are heavy favorites. This cautious view is misaligned with the long history of strong opposition performance in midterm elections, especially when the incumbent president is as unpopular as Trump.
Expert ratings are ignoring signs of a blue wave Said 20 Sept 2026
The current pro-AI coalition opposing regulation is not expected to be very durable, since its factions hate one another.
So I don’t expect this pro-AI coalition to be very durable. The AI denialists and the Trump fans hate one another.
A supermajority wants to slow AI down Said 17 Sept 2026
Substantive AI regulation is probably more likely to pass than conventional wisdom suggests.
I don’t know what odds I’d give, but I’m probably bullish on the odds of substantive regulation passing relative to the conventional wisdom.
A supermajority wants to slow AI down Said 17 Sept 2026
It seems like common-sense risk management that the AI industry needs far more regulation and probably some enforceable slowdown.
It just seems like common-sense risk management that the industry needs far more regulation, and probably some sort of enforceable slowdown.
We’re not ready for superpersistent AI Said 15 Sept 2026
AI has arguably been hitting its marks so far, roughly as anticipated by people who are really worried about existential threats.
I think AI has basically been hitting its marks so far as anticipated by people who are really worried about existential threats.
We’re not ready for superpersistent AI Said 15 Sept 2026
A 17-game NFL season with imbalanced schedules inherently introduces randomness no projection model can eliminate.
A projection model will never solve the problem that a 17-game NFL season with imbalanced schedules is inherently going to introduce a degree of randomness.
Inside ELWAY’s 2026 NFL forecast Said 9 Sept 2026
A sports model that shows profound, systematic differences from Vegas is probably doing something wrong.
But if your model shows profound, systematic differences from Vegas, it’s probably doing something wrong.
Inside ELWAY’s 2026 NFL forecast Said 9 Sept 2026
Quarterbacks account for almost a third of a football team's total player value.
QBs literally account for almost a third of overall player value in the NFL, based on our analysis.
2026 ELWAY NFL projections Said 7 Sept 2026
Efficiency measures such as yards per play and first downs gained are generally more predictive than scoring alone.
Efficiency measures, such as yards per play and first downs gained, are generally more predictive than scoring alone.
2026 ELWAY NFL projections Said 7 Sept 2026
Touchdown rates are noisy and opportunity-dependent, and don't transfer well when a quarterback changes teams.
TDs are both noisy and opportunity-dependent, and TD rates don’t “travel” all that well when a QB changes teams.
How our ELWAY forecasts work Said 7 Sept 2026
Dropped passes should, with high confidence, be attributed to the receiver rather than the quarterback.
We are quite confident that drops should be attributed to the WR, not the quarterback.
QBERT 2026 NFL quarterback ratings Said 5 Sept 2026
Quarterback sneaks are almost purely a result of the offensive line and/or opportunities, not quarterback skill.
Sneaks are almost purely a result of the offensive line and/or opportunities.
QBERT 2026 NFL quarterback ratings Said 5 Sept 2026
Midterm races in the modern era tend not to change much between Labor Day and Election Day.
midterm races in the modern era tend not to change all that much between Labor Day and Election Day.
Beware big swings in midterm forecasts Said 3 Sept 2026
A new poll in a single state such as Michigan or Maine pretty much affects that state's race and that state only.
A new poll in Michigan or Maine or South Carolina or Alaska pretty much affects that state and that state only.
Beware big swings in midterm forecasts Said 3 Sept 2026
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Recommends rcmnd
rcmnd What they recommend 2 things — each backed by an exact quote.
Compiled by rcmnd.app, not by them: the quotes are theirs, and each links to the post it was copied from.
Recent
Loved Pirate Wires
Yesterday, I spoke with Mike Solana of the excellent newsletter Pirate Wires, one of the best places anywhere to find some truly heterodox takes about the relationship between tech and politics.
natesilver.net 14 Apr 2026
Recommends Abundance
but I recommend Abundance to the Silver Bulletin audience.
natesilver.net 27 Mar 2025
Where they publish
Newsletter Silver Bulletin Their newsletter: elections, forecasting and risk.
Polling models, election forecasts and posts on gambling, risk and prediction — the successor to their FiveThirtyEight work. Has a feed.
Recent
- FLIPR 2026 Governors forecast 16 Oct 2026 Silver Bulletin's prediction for every gubernatorial election in 2026.
- FLIPR 2026 House forecast 16 Oct 2026 Silver Bulletin's prediction for every House election in 2026.
- FLIPR 2026 Senate forecast 16 Oct 2026 Silver Bulletin's prediction for every Senate election in 2026.
Show 15 more
- FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast 16 Oct 2026 Silver Bulletin's prediction for every Senate, House, and gubernatorial election in 2026.
- QBERT 2026 NFL quarterback ratings 16 Oct 2026 Our advanced statistical ratings on every quarterback’s past, present, and future are back for the new NFL season.
- 2026 ELWAY NFL projections: Week 6 16 Oct 2026 Team ratings, playoff and Super Bowl odds, and forecasts of every upcoming game from Silver Bulletin's exclusive NFL model.
- How popular is Donald Trump? 16 Oct 2026 Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
- Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot? 16 Oct 2026 Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.
- How popular is the Iran War? 16 Oct 2026 Silver Bulletin approval ratings for the ongoing conflict.
- Welcome to midterm silly season 🤡 15 Oct 2026 Still Couting EP 5
- Could Minnesota spoil the blue wave? 9 Oct 2026 You’ve heard a lot about Michigan. But Democrats may have bigger problems in states where voters don’t trust their governance.
- The left’s fortunes have been rising. Will 2028 be AOC’s moment? 8 Oct 2026 Still Counting EP5 is out! Here’s why I chose Ocasio-Cortez in our 2028 Democratic primary draft.
- What if the polls are wrong again? 3 Oct 2026 Systematic polling errors are common. Polls might be biased against Republicans again. Or against Democrats.
- Why did Ohio stop being a swing state? 1 Oct 2026 Still Counting EP4 covers the Ohio and Maine Senate races. Plus, we’re reviving Silver Bulletin Subscriber Questions (SBSQ).
- SBSQ reboot thread 1 Oct 2026 Please ask your questions in the comments!
- How popular is Elon Musk? 30 Sept 2026 Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.
- Midterm waves are the rule, not the exception 29 Sept 2026 Democrats have an increasingly large lead in the polls — and in FLIPR. But history says that shouldn’t be surprising.
- NBA Future of the Franchise Rankings 4.0 28 Sept 2026 It won’t shock you to learn that the Spurs and Thunder have the brightest futures. But what about the rest of the league after a crazy offseason?
Link verified 1 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
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