Robin Hanson
Economist at George Mason University. Writes Overcoming Bias on prediction markets, signalling and the far future, and wrote The Age of Em and The Elephant in the Brain.
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Where they publish
Overcoming BiasNewsletter Their long-running blog, now on Substack. Has a feed.
Short, provocative posts on prediction markets, signalling, medicine, and what the far future implies about the present. Running under this name since 2006 and still posting most weeks.
Recent
- Modern Worries 1 Sept 2026
- Aliens Are Not Crazy Unlikely 31 Aug 2026
- Testimony Data Project 27 Aug 2026
Show 17 more
- Make Peace With Darwin 24 Aug 2026
- No-New-Physics Consciousness 15 Aug 2026
- Digital Mind Suicide 14 Aug 2026
- Digital Mind Castes 10 Aug 2026
- The Modern Mind's Fatal Flaw 8 Aug 2026
- Easy To Hard Discipline Academic Careers Paths 7 Aug 2026
- How To Be A Usually-Right Contrarian 5 Aug 2026
- Status And Social-Skill Bias 3 Aug 2026
- Why Sheep Need Pigs in Sheepdog’s Clothing 2 Aug 2026
- Who Are Your "Descendants"? 29 Jul 2026
- Our Likely Future Filter: World Govt 25 Jul 2026
- The End Of Culture 23 Jul 2026
- 200yrs of Reasons For World Govt 22 Jul 2026
- LLM-judged policy debates 21 Jul 2026
- Overly Smooth Drained Strict Costly Norms 18 Jul 2026
- Callard's Uni-Context 15 Jul 2026
- This Time Is Always Different 12 Jul 2026
Link verified 1 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
@robinhansonx.com Short-form, and where posts get argued after publication.
Short questions and claims, and the arguments that follow a new post. Higher volume than the blog and often where an idea is tested before it becomes one.
Recent
- Good to know. The reason I'd been focusing on is the least popular among 3 options. 1 Sept 2026
- Re your next personal day, fears and hopes are of similar magnitude. But re the world over decades, we find far more to fear than to hope for. 1 Sept 2026
- "main correlates for support of redistribution are the beliefs concerning the importance of effort versus luck for success (fairness), the trust in government… 1 Sept 2026
Show 16 more
- "Participants … were asked to hold at least one personal conversation a day with a generative AI tool of their choice for 28 days … This led to an increase in… 1 Sept 2026
- "criticism’s aversion to obviousness is rooted in its construction of the particularly skilled author as the possessor of an informal, extralegal kind of intel… 1 Sept 2026
- "across 3 experiments, people are less sensitive to info others discover than to equally relevant info they discover themselves. … even when others info is per… 1 Sept 2026
- "democratizations have a large, negative impact on asset valuations driven by a rise in redistriubiton risk. Across 90 countries over 200 years …" 1 Sept 2026
- I've found it hard to get people to see how much they love their culture, compared to the space of possible cultures. I think this norm that all cultures are e… 1 Sept 2026
- Libertarians object to limits on acts enforced by govts, but not those enforced by norms. Libertines object to both. 1 Sept 2026
- "To really grapple with the Aztecs is to experience a sort of vertigo every bit as disorienting and nauseating as cosmic horror itself. … The nine most frighte… 1 Sept 2026
- "There was nothing special about the mass sacrifices atop the pyramids, they were just one of the gaudiest and costliest outgrowths of a sensibility that perva… 1 Sept 2026
- Have you ever looked up at night stars, and been filled with rage or despair that the stars seem oblivious to your influence? No? Then why be so upset that AIs… 1 Sept 2026
- "universe of public-health laws can account for approximately two-thirds of the mortality decline during the study period." 31 Aug 2026
- "decline in fertility likely reflects a complex mix of changing norms around work, parenting, gender roles, and leisure" 31 Aug 2026
- "participants from … U.S., Poland, Japan, & India. Despite the moderate distance on key cultural dimensions (e.g., individualism-collectivism, tightness-loosen… 31 Aug 2026
- If you were to worry about cultural drift causing civ declines, then rebirths, which would be your main reason? (A) People suffer in troughs between civs. (B)… 31 Aug 2026
- Re both the possibilities of non-Earth-life in the Solar System, and that some-UFOs-are-aliens, reasonable priors are pretty high. So Bayesian analysis does NO… 31 Aug 2026
- huh. Where I know more than others, both young and old, are mostly topics where the old don't know much more than the young. 31 Aug 2026
- Median lognormal fit: we prefer only ~1/1200 cultures in history to ours. 30 Aug 2026
Link verified 1 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
Latest
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- Good to know. The reason I'd been focusing on is the least popular among 3 options. 1 Sept
- Re your next personal day, fears and hopes are of similar magnitude. But re the world over decades, we find far more to fear than to hope for. 1 Sept
- Modern Worries 1 Sept
- "main correlates for support of redistribution are the beliefs concerning the importance of effort versus luck for success (fairness), the trust in government… 1 Sept
- "Participants … were asked to hold at least one personal conversation a day with a generative AI tool of their choice for 28 days … This led to an increase in… 1 Sept
- "criticism’s aversion to obviousness is rooted in its construction of the particularly skilled author as the possessor of an informal, extralegal kind of intel… 1 Sept
Show 24 more
- "across 3 experiments, people are less sensitive to info others discover than to equally relevant info they discover themselves. … even when others info is per… 1 Sept
- "democratizations have a large, negative impact on asset valuations driven by a rise in redistriubiton risk. Across 90 countries over 200 years …" 1 Sept
- I've found it hard to get people to see how much they love their culture, compared to the space of possible cultures. I think this norm that all cultures are e… 1 Sept
- Libertarians object to limits on acts enforced by govts, but not those enforced by norms. Libertines object to both. 1 Sept
- "To really grapple with the Aztecs is to experience a sort of vertigo every bit as disorienting and nauseating as cosmic horror itself. … The nine most frighte… 1 Sept
- "There was nothing special about the mass sacrifices atop the pyramids, they were just one of the gaudiest and costliest outgrowths of a sensibility that perva… 1 Sept
- Have you ever looked up at night stars, and been filled with rage or despair that the stars seem oblivious to your influence? No? Then why be so upset that AIs… 1 Sept
- "universe of public-health laws can account for approximately two-thirds of the mortality decline during the study period." 31 Aug
- "decline in fertility likely reflects a complex mix of changing norms around work, parenting, gender roles, and leisure" 31 Aug
- "participants from … U.S., Poland, Japan, & India. Despite the moderate distance on key cultural dimensions (e.g., individualism-collectivism, tightness-loosen… 31 Aug
- Aliens Are Not Crazy Unlikely 31 Aug
- Testimony Data Project 27 Aug
- Make Peace With Darwin 24 Aug
- No-New-Physics Consciousness 15 Aug
- Digital Mind Suicide 14 Aug
- Digital Mind Castes 10 Aug
- The Modern Mind's Fatal Flaw 8 Aug
- Easy To Hard Discipline Academic Careers Paths 7 Aug
- How To Be A Usually-Right Contrarian 5 Aug
- Status And Social-Skill Bias 3 Aug
- Why Sheep Need Pigs in Sheepdog’s Clothing 2 Aug
- Who Are Your "Descendants"? 29 Jul
- Our Likely Future Filter: World Govt 25 Jul
- The End Of Culture 23 Jul