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Bryan Caplan x.com
It's a claim I'd bet on. But yes, prediction far outside of the observed range is hard.
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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20 September
18 September
17 September
16 September
15 September
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korrents.com
Roughly half of the possible outcomes of advanced AI development would be good or great for society.Their words
There is nearly an infinite range of outcomes here between being fine and being dead. Also, many of them - probably half! - have outcomes which end up being good, if not great, for society.
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Their words
It's absolutely wild how many times Volvo has managed to refresh this platform. They are basically the same cars as in 2015/2017 but now they have 150km range plus electric and they still look amazing.
14 September
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korrents.com
Spending more on ultra-high-end audio gear does not necessarily yield better sound, just different sound.Their words
You can spend more on an integrated amp in the ultra-high-end price range, but I do not feel you will necessarily get "better" sound-just something different.
Luxman L-100 Centennial Review. Class A Returns.stevehuffphoto.com
13 September
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Their words
Now recently the U.S. economy has experienced a huge positive shock to its Intelligence, with more to come. The core prediction is that this increases marginal returns, employment, and real wages in the Polanyi knowledge sector.
A simple model of AI-aided economic growthmarginalrevolution.com
11 September
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Usesrcmnd.app
Claude Fable 5.1Their words
We ran an extensive audit using Claude Fable 5.1, GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-6 Astra, then fixed a range of different bugs.
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Usesrcmnd.app
GPT-5.6 SolTheir words
We ran an extensive audit using Claude Fable 5.1, GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-6 Astra, then fixed a range of different bugs.
10 September
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Pharmacy FirstTheir words
That's why we're expanding Pharmacy First. The idea is simple: Qualified pharmacists can assess patients, dispense medicines and prescribe treatment for a range of common conditions, helping people get care quickly and close to home.
9 September
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korrents.com
The Canadian economy is not a miniature U.S. economy but specializes in a limited range of goods.Their words
That is, the Canadian economy isn’t a miniature version of the U.S. economy, producing the same mix of stuff on a smaller scale. Instead, Canada concentrates on producing a limited range of goods.
Adding Injury to Insult, Canada Editionpaulkrugman.substack.com
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korrents.com
PC boot and BIOS keys are inconsistently assigned across the F-key range, Delete, and Escape.Their words
I really want to fix consistent boot and bios keys for PCs!!! How did we end up using the entire F-key range AND delete AND escape across the range? THIS IS MADNESS.
7 September
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Their words
The AI jobs prediction so far is playing out the opposite of what many thought.
5 September
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korrents.com
Most of a song's useful bass information sits in the 60–120 Hz range rather than in the deepest frequencies.Their words
That area between 60-120Hz is where the most bass info lies in music today. I feel many subwoofers focus on the lowest Hz number rather than being musical, fast and invisible.
My Fave Speakers Ever and Why. Fleetwood Helios.stevehuffphoto.com
4 September
From one piece Why Fei-Fei Li Is Betting on Spatial Intelligence 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
New view prediction is to spatial intelligence what next token prediction is to language.Their words
we do believe very strongly that next viewpoint prediction is is the equivalent of next token prediction.
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Their words
So okay, so to take a evolutionary view, right? That new viewpoint prediction is exactly evolution had to solve by making animals move. You you nature give animals eyes. But nature didn't give trees eye. Eyes. Why? Because when you move, you see a new viewpoint.
2 September
1 September
31 August
- Mastodon
- NewsletterIssue 109 – Reg Crypto
29 August
26 August
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Their words
This is complete nonsense, a shame that The Economist has been taken in by it.
25 August
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korrents.com
The froth visible in US markets in 2025 was the 2021 mania returning, and reason enough to take risk off.Their words, before
It’s not that any one of these things represents a mania, but collectively they do. And I know what can happen after that mania.
Their words now
Since then U.S. stocks are up 16% (total return) and my bearish prediction turned out to be misguided.
19 August
11 August
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korrents.com
AI agents will soon reach superhuman, AlphaZero-like performance across a wide range of domains.Their words
we should therefore expect AI agents to achieve AlphaZero-like, superhuman performance in a wide and expanding variety of domains.
5 August
2 August
30 July
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korrents.com
Before building on a gap in the general models, work out whether that gap survives six months or three years.Their words
Um but I I would also caution that the general models are definitely getting better at a broader and broader range of things. So you have to figure out, you know, is that thing you're working on, is that going to be a durable thing or do you think the models uh at the forefront are going to get better at that in the next six months or 12 months or is it something they're not going to be able to do for a couple years or three years? And you know, you you want to weigh that as you're as you're deciding what to work on.
26 July
24 July
20 July
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Their words
I will say that the best evidence we have just says in reality don't be deficient. If you can reach that threshold of not being deficient or insufficient, maybe that's enough.
9 July
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Their words
since 1970, natural forcings have been roughly flat, internal variability averages out over the longer period, and greenhouse gases explain essentially all of the observed warming.
What drove the early 20th century warming?theclimatebrink.com
4 June
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Their words
but of course, that's not what's happened, because as we've accumulated more wealth and you know, more advanced machines and and so on, we've expanded the range of things other than singers to spend our money on, and the share spent on singers has stayed sort of negligible. Um so likewise, that's sort of my central prediction about how future unfolds, though I it could go either way.
From one piece The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And if you look at Ricardo's predictions, they're actually right. If you look at all those jobs that made money in Ricardo's time, they got automated. So, if I was David Ricardo and I woke up and somebody told me all those jobs did get automated. And you ask me David Ricardo, like what do you think the prime age employment rate is in 2026? I think he would be surprised if you told him it was the highest it's ever been other than 2000.
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Their words
rather than thinking about individual forecasts like what me and Phil are going to do, rather looking at kind of like basically generating prediction markets, where you get aggregate forecasts, where you get like kind of wisdom of the crowd effects. And kind of the reason that I think this is because we have been famously terrible at forecasting.
27 May
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Their words
It's like everyone is just saying mantras to themselves cuz the root thing that's going on here is we are experiencing a moment of great change. Everyone is very nervous about what that means for their own position in it. a defense mechanism is to confidently assert a future in which you're a winner. And that's almost what every single prediction that you see is happening.
25 May
24 May
From one piece AI predictions: Job markets, Codex beats Claude, and the death of org charts | Dan Shipper 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
SaaS stocks are a buy right now.Their words
So, this is another good prediction. I would buy SAS stocks right now.
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Their words
Here's a prediction. I'm pretty sure every coding model on the market will still do this in a year. Every coding model on the market will take that instruction seriously.
23 May
27 April
26 April
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Their words
Design is really about, you know, empathizing with your customer, empathizing with your audience, your viewer, whoever it is, and then building something that will really resonates with them. And And that means you need to have a an extraordinary amount of range.
7 April
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korrents.com
Ultra-processed foods have epidemiological evidence of harm comparable to what existed for smoking.Their words
There's strong epidemiological evidence associating ultra-processed foods with a range of negative health outcomes, at least on par with the evidence we had for smoking.
0058: borrow-checking surprises, books, linksscattered-thoughts.net
26 March
13 February
From one piece Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential” 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
it's it's kind of purely a practical and empirical thing that we've observed that by teaching the model principles, getting it to learn from principles, its behavior is more consistent, it's easier to cover edge cases, and the model is more likely to do what people want it to do.
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Their words
But but that's actually a very weak criterion, right? People thought I was saying like we won't need 90% of the software engineers. Those things are worlds apart, right?
6 February
13 January
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Their words
When someone is asked to reflect on their own life, they draw on a wide range of experiences. When people are asked about “the world”, they recall a very small number of recent events (the availability bias).
16 December 2025
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Crossing to SafetyTheir words
Stegner's last, great work is an understated, closely observed portrait of the relationship between two couples.
8 December 2025
18 November 2025
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Their words
Thus my personal prediction is that in domains that are already largely under the powers of modern AI, such as languages, programming or chess, we’re going to see a divergence in human abilities.
15 November 2025
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korrents.com
Designed experiments can reveal causal relationships that observational data alone cannot determine.Their words
But even more important than efficiency, designed experiments can inform about causality, which is very difficult to determine from collected observed data.
17 October 2025
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Their words
so a good example recently was um Jeff Hinton's prediction that radiologists would not be a job anymore and this turned out to be very wrong in a bunch of ways right so radiologists are alive and well and growing even though computer vision is really really good at recognizing all the different things that they have to recognize
16 October 2025
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Their words
take prompting and as an engineer, there's a range of prompting abilities. uh the way you discretize and split up your task matters. And if you assume that uh a model can do more than it can do, then you're going to have a bad time.
12 October 2025
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Their words
modern instruments generally have more reliable tone, wider range, and better projection than traditional instruments-they are better as instruments.
First explorations in Indian classical musicandrewbatson.com
26 September 2025
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Their words
If you go to look about how psychologists think about learning, there's nothing like uh imitation. Maybe there are some extreme cases where humans might do that or appear to do that, but there's no basic animal learning process called imitation.
28 July 2025
16 July 2025
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Their words
I've always been very risk-conscious. And risk-conscious does not mean getting rid of risk. It means properly pricing it and understanding the potential outcomes.
4 July 2025
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korrents.com
Using a neural network is likely to become easier than designing a custom-tuned prediction algorithm for many tasks.Their words
in 2025 it might end up being easier to just throw a neural net at the problem, instead of a custom-designed-and-tuned prediction algorithm!
14 June 2025
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Their words
There are certainly math results which could only have been accomplished because there was a human authentication and an AI involved, but it's hard to disentangle credit. I mean, these tools, they do not replicate all the skills needed to do mathematics, but they can replicate some non-trivial percentage of them, 30, 40%, so they can fill in gaps.
5 May 2025
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Their words
So the idea is that they’re closer to something that you would want to map as a sound, than it’s something as a picture.
1 April 2025
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Their words
We need to leap into action on many of the same things that could help if it does turn out that we only have a few years.
20 December 2024
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Their words
If there are ways that you can help improve the governance of AI in these and other countries, you should be doing it now or in the next few months, not planning for ways to have an impact several years from now.
1 October 2024
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korrents.com
Powerful AI will compress the biological and medical progress of the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.Their words
To summarize the above, my basic prediction is that AI-enabled biology and medicine will allow us to compress the progress that human biologists would have achieved over the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.
19 September 2024
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Their words
So for these reasons, I (unfortunately) do not expect any big AI-driven breakthroughs in biological understanding any time soon.
1 September 2024
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Their words
I also have another less optimistic prediction: as soon as the concept of founder mode becomes established, people will start misusing it. Founders who are unable to delegate even things they should will use founder mode as the excuse. Or managers who aren't founders will decide they should try to act like founders.
25 May 2024
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Their words
is this idea that we form these internal models at particular points of high prediction error or points of, I believe also points of uncertainty, points of surprise or motivationally significant periods. And those points are when it’s maximally optimal to encode an episodic memory.
30 April 2024
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korrents.com
Debt is best understood as narrowing the range of outcomes you can survive, not as a cost of capital.Their words
I think this is the most practical way to think about debt: As debt increases, you narrow the range of outcomes you can endure in life.
22 March 2024
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Their words
there is an absolutely existential flaw in the system, which Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta confirmed with me, which is that our ICBMs do not have enough range. If we launch a counterattack against, say, North Korea, our ICBMs must fly over Russia. They must fly over Russia.
2 January 2024
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Their words
Life expectancy isn’t a prediction of how long people will live.
1 October 2023
1 September 2023
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Their words
With silkworms, absolutely let's not modify it genetically. Let's not modify it genetically. And then some. Because why did we get there to begin with 4,000 years ago in the Silk Road? And we should never get to a point where we evolve life for the service of mankind at the risk of these wonderful creatures across the across the kingdom of life. I don't think about the same kind of ethical range when I think about bacteria.
12 August 2023
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Their words
Instead of decades to centuries, I now see it as 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence.
2 August 2023
24 August 2022
25 July 2022
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Their words, before
If you get a check during a pandemic, you’re not going to go out and spend it at restaurants and bars, because…well, there’s a pandemic. Instead, you’re more likely to stick it in the bank, pay down debt, or pay the back rent that you owe.
Their words now
I had some theory and some evidence on my side for this prediction, and yet I ended up being very wrong about what would happen to consumption.
15 July 2022
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Their words
So there are sharp limits to how much extra range an army can get by adding carrying capacity; in practice about a month and a half’s logistics buffer is the maximum that’s possible and even doing that is expensive.
8 July 2022
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Their words
The drone-like architecture of the multicopters is simple, but as the rotors are responsible for keeping the unit at a constant altitude with hover power, they represent an energy-intensive version of VTOLs. Their range is, therefore, short, typically less than 20 miles.
28 May 2022
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Usesrcmnd.app
Lucide IconsTheir words
Collection of open-source icons for use in web and mobile applications. Provides a wide range of icons for various use cases.
22 November 2021
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
RationalityTheir words
Steven Pinker, Rationality – the joy of this book (other than Pinker’s playful wit) is the sheer range.
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Think AgainTheir words
Adam Grant, Think Again – Grant is always witty and humane, but assembles a terrific range of ideas and research to analyse and overcome the obstacles to rethinking our own views and (even harder) persuading others to rethink theirs.
9 November 2021
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korrents.com
The e-bike market has no cheap standard model, which is what it would take to make the e-bike a mass product.Their words
E-bikes range in price from $1000 to $10,000. The market is still lacking a Toyota Corolla equivalent.
1 September 2021
15 July 2021
From one piece Highly accurate protein structure prediction with AlphaFold (with 33 co-authors) 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Despite these advances, contemporary physical and evolutionary-history-based approaches produce predictions that are far short of experimental accuracy in the majority of cases in which a close homologue has not been solved experimentally and this has limited their utility for many biological applications.
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Their words
Despite recent progress10-14, existing methods fall far short of atomic accuracy, especially when no homologous structure is available.
8 December 2020
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Likedrcmnd.app
RangeTheir words
I learned this from reading a good, myth-debunking book called Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World.
20 October 2020
Nothing matches.
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