Andrew Gelman

Where they publish

• Blog Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science The blog he writes with several colleagues. Has a feed; the card shows only his own posts.

  Posts most days on statistics done badly and well, replication, and the sociology of research. Other contributors write there too, so the Recent list here is the subset bylined to him.

  Open statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

  Recent

  • “So in that sense the silly statistics in the paper is no big deal, it serves as a sort of rhetorical flourish?” 4 Nov 2026 Richard Feldman writes: I’m a long-time reader and sometimes commenter on the blog. I’ve learned a lot – and been entertained – by many of the posts. A paper was just published in Science on a theme that is potentially
  • Analysis of tonight’s election results (and why I don’t need to do it anymore) 4 Nov 2026 Back in the day, I would do a post-election post, summarizing information from the election outcomes and exit polls. For example, after the 2008 election: As with previous Republican candidates, McCain did better among…
  • Election Day special: Why it can be rational to vote 3 Nov 2026 I think I can best do my civic duty by running this one every Election Day, just like Art Buchwald on Thanksgiving. . . . With a national election coming up, and with the publicity at its maximum, now is

  Show 17 more

  • Alan Zaslavsky 3 Nov 2026 We had a wonderful cohort of students in the statistics Ph.D. program at Harvard in the late 1980s, and I learned so much, not just from the faculty and from my contemporaries in the program, but also from those who
  • Most legislative races are so far from being close that there’s essentially no practical electoral benefit from moderation. But there is the argument that if you run a lot of extremists all over the… 2 Nov 2026 Peter Dorman writes: Have you seen this? The debate is interesting in general, but I think you would be especially interested in the empirical claims about issue polls and their relationship to electoral outcomes. I [Do…
  • “Evolutionary psychology hypotheses are testable and falsifiable.” 1 Nov 2026 Eric Charnov points to this recent article by William Costello et al., which begins: The field of evolutionary psychology has often been the target of allegations that its hypotheses are unfalsifiable. . . . We . . . pr…
  • Problems with the “Do no harm” principle in the presence of uncertainty 31 Oct 2026 In a paper entitled, Counterfactual Harm: A Counter-argument, Amit Sawant and Mats Stensrud write: A core principle in medicine is non-maleficence, often equated with “do no harm.” A formal definition of harm based on c…
  • This guy has a transformer-based election forecasting model 31 Oct 2026 Harvey Olden writes: I’ve developed an election prediction model based on a transformer architecture; I thought you might find it interesting. The model will update its information automatically in the run-up to the mid…
  • Stochastic potential outcomes: A discussion with Ang Yu and Jonas Mikhaeil 30 Oct 2026 Ang Yu read the Russian Roulette paper (by Jonas Mikhaeil and me) and wrote: I was wondering whether it might be useful to alternatively frame the problem in terms of stochastic versus deterministic interventions as opp…
  • R-hat, August 1990 29 Oct 2026 I came up with R-hat when working at Bell Labs in the summer of 1990. Here’s the story, and below is the first version of the paper, exactly as I wrote it. First, here are some recent things to read
  • “In the run-up to the trial, the brothers conducted an elaborate public relations campaign . . . also arranged for payments to influencers and podcasters who made sympathetic social media posts about… 29 Oct 2026 From a news article about some recently-convicted rapists: Three brothers who ran a yearslong conspiracy to traffic women and girls for sex were sentenced to 30 years each in prison on Tuesday . . . The brothers, more a…
  • Tension vs. excitement during NBA games 28 Oct 2026 This is related to our discussion of the martingale property of calibrated probability forecasts. Jeremy Lu writes: I’m a former student of Dr. Jennifer Hill at NYU and have been keeping up with your blog. I noticed som…
  • We interrupt our usual programming to inform you that I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt. 27 Oct 2026 So. I got some emails today from various people, pointing me to this item from a court filing: This seems to be the story: Meta internally set a goal to “get the academic community to disavow” and “turn against” profess…
  • Six questions about political polarization and my responses 27 Oct 2026 Mary Murray writes: I am a Year 12 student in the UK currently completing an Extended Project Qualification (EPQ), an independent research project equivalent to half an A-Level. I intend to study law at a competitive un…
  • MRP at NYT 26 Oct 2026 Coincidentally, or maybe not, on the same day that our New York Times contact informed me about their new job opening, Yair points us to this new feature at the NYT website, “Times Voter Trends” at the NYT. Yair writes:
  • One-year election analytics fellowship at the New York Times 26 Oct 2026 Will Davis writes: We ended up hiring somebody who had seen the job posting through your blog, and he is fantastic. I also wanted to let you know that we have a fellowship slot open. This is a one-year, full-time
  • Skepticism about the Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test 26 Oct 2026 The Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test (RMET), which we discussed the other day, has been critiqued in a series of papers: – Construct validity evidence reporting practices for the Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test: A sy…
  • World’s dumbest AI spam just dropped 25 Oct 2026 I’ve seen some incompetent email scams before, but this is the worst so far: From: ** Subject: Availability inquiry: statistical-design review for FormalismBench Date: October 23, 2026 at 04:01:24 EDT To: gelman@stat.co…
  • Ideological bias in “Ideological bias in the production of research findings” 24 Oct 2026 John Nielsen-Gammon points to a recent article, “Ideological bias in the production of research findings,” by George J. Borjas and Nate Breznau, which states: Our study exploits an opportunity to observe 158 researchers…
  • A big problem with conventional experimentation or A/B testing is that the treatment effect can vary over time and it can depend on the entire history of the treatment. Usual comparisons miss this po… 23 Oct 2026 Andrea Bronzini points to this article and writes: I’m working on experimentation tooling and wrote a brief note about a failure mode I keep seeing: “winning” A/B tests often lose uplift after rollout. My claim is that…

  Link verified 20 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.