Andrew Gelman
Statistician at Columbia; writes Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, and wrote Bayesian Data Analysis.
Andrew Gelman did not write this page. What is this?
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Where they publish
Blog Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science The blog he writes with several colleagues. Has a feed; the card shows only his own posts.
Posts most days on statistics done badly and well, replication, and the sociology of research. Other contributors write there too, so the Recent list here is the subset bylined to him.
Open statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Recent
- How did it go, this prediction from ten years ago about Japanese fertility in 2026? 20 Sept 2026 From 2017: Gaurav Sood points us to this post, “Why did so many Japanese families avoid having children in 1966?”, by Randy Olson, which includes the excellent graph above and the following explanation: The Japanese use…
- The Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952 19 Sept 2026 I was reading the London Review of Books and came across this article by Jameel Jaffer stating that, in 1952, Congress overrode the presidential veto and passed the McCarran-Walter Act with a two-thirds majority in the…
- Meritocracy to-morrow and meritocracy yesterday – but never meritocracy to-day 18 Sept 2026 Alice couldn’t help laughing, as she said, “I don’t want you to hire me – and I don’t care for jam.” “It’s very good jam,” said the Queen. “Well, I don’t want any to-day, at any rate.” “You couldn’t have
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- Scientific citations as an overwhelmed communication channel 17 Sept 2026 Peter Dorman writes: This looks like it’s up your alley. I find it interesting, but I’m not convinced by what he says about innovation. Of course, the issue is empirical, but I suspect it may be different for different…
- It’s satisfying to see the economics profession come around on some things (regression discontinuity analysis and so-called risk aversion) 16 Sept 2026 Jonathan Falk points to this post by Nicholas Decker and writes: I thought you’d be interested in a couple of things in this. First, the regression discontinuity pictures and Decker’s parenthetical warning: “(The econom…
- Charting the Agentic Garden of Forking Paths 16 Sept 2026 Arjun Balaji, Batuhan Duru Yeltekin, and Tian Zheng write: Even with a fixed dataset and research question, data analysis involves many defensible decisions. Understanding how these choices influence the results is scie…
- “Protection from inappropriate influence is a hallmark of scientific integrity” . . . not any more! 15 Sept 2026 This is a funny one. Remember how Google used to have the slogan, “Don’t be evil,” but then they abandoned it? Something similar seems to have happened with the U.S. Census Bureau. Dale Lehman pointed me to the story: I…
- The Washington Nationals are hiring! 15 Sept 2026 Des McGowan writes: I left the Mets last year to take a job as the Amateur Scouting Director with the Washington Nationals. Now that we’ve gotten through our first draft and trade deadline, we’re looking for two Senior…
- This is how we do modern frequentist statistics: Using fake-data simulation to understand what can happen in a study 14 Sept 2026 In a famous (to readers of this blog) example of statistical error, a researcher reported that beautiful parents were 36% more likely to have girl babies. The saps at Freakonomics fell for this one hook, line, and sinke…
- What’s happening with the models of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation? 13 Sept 2026 John “not Towering Inferno” Williams points to this new research article by Valentin Portmann et al., which states: Climate models show considerable discrepancies in their future projections around the Atlantic, mainly…
- Annals of hype: Did this discovery in 2012 mark “the discovery of the final laws of nature . . . a discontinuity in human intellectual history, the sharpest that has occurred since the beginning of m… 12 Sept 2026 Here’s Ed Regis in 1993, reviewing a book from that year by physicist Steven Weinberg: Currently, the most favoured explanation for the electroweak asymmetry involves the postulation of a new elementary particle, the so…
- “Belief” is not something you have; rather, it’s a relationship between thought and action. 11 Sept 2026 I came across this piece by John Ziman from 1989, in the middle of the “cold fusion” hoopla: When scientific controversies erupt like this, one must obviously try to grasp the essential points at issue. The mere fact th…
- Why I still like Orwell’s “Politics and the English Language” essay (even though he gets some of the linguistics wrong) 10 Sept 2026 Brett Reynolds writes: I liked the two-column move in your Orwell post. It seems genuinely useful. I wondered, though, about the choice of Orwell as patron saint for the argument. The central point in your post seems st…
- Living on the Edge: Aggressive mediocrity at the summit of America’s intellectual culture 9 Sept 2026 So much good stuff here at the Edge Foundation and Jeffrey Epstein webpage: – The connection to Ted talks. I had no idea! But it fits. Money and bullshit go together like liver and onions. – “Bill Gates and his
- Hey–here’s an R package for imputing Census data using iterative proportional fitting on available margins. 8 Sept 2026 Gustavo pointed us to this project (see also here) by David Dorer to impute data to lower census levels (block/tract) from PUMAs (public use microdata areas, as defined by the U.S. Census). From a quick glance this look…
- “In the Weights”—an exclusive invitation just for you! 7 Sept 2026 We’re usually posting on a one-year delay, but I bumped this one up because this private invitation is “unique to you, not forwardable, and expires in seven days.” So hop to it! This is your chance to join a forum
- Does anyone have a lower Jordan3 number than Evans Boney? (And what about the Ariely-Armstrong-Enron number?) 6 Sept 2026 From last year’s post, What’s your Jordan3 number?: In the discussion of our post, Who has the lowest Erdos-Bacon-Epstein number? (the winner appears to be the mathematician Daniel Kleitman, my freshman-year academic ad…
- OK, here’s a statistics problem for you, ripped directly from the headlines! 5 Sept 2026 From the NYT: Mayor Zohran Mamdani is expected to propose linking Grand Army Plaza with Prospect Park by closing a dangerous stretch of road between them. . . . The plan would effectively reconnect the oval-shaped plaza…
- Update on U.S. government’s Soviet-style push for “gold standard science” 4 Sept 2026 We had a discussion last year: I got this email the other day from a journalist at a major news organization: I’m a science reporter from **, wondering if you’d have some time to talk/reflect on the Trump administration…
- Update on “I don’t understand this paper claiming election fraud in 2024 in Pennsylvania” 3 Sept 2026 Last year we briefly discussed a hard-to-follow paper by political scientist Walter Mebane discussing possible “malevolent distortions of electors’ intentions.” Carter Walker and Jessica Huseman at the election news sit…
Link verified 20 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
Beliefs
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Recommends rcmnd
rcmnd What they recommend 5 things — each backed by an exact quote.
Compiled by rcmnd.app, not by them: the quotes are theirs, and each links to the post it was copied from.
Recent
Loved How to Talk So Kids Will Listen and Listen So Kids Will Talk
Yes, perhaps the best book every written: How to Talk so Kids will Listen and Listen so Kids will Talk, by Adele Faber and Elaine Mazlish. This was a book that I read years ago because it happened to be on my sister's bookshelf, and it really did change my life.
fivebooks.com 3 Jan 2011
What others say about How to Talk So Kids Will Listen and Listen So Kids Will Talk →
Liked The Honest Rainmaker
That's kind of the point – it's this lovable rogue, this guy who was never as successful as all that, but he would somehow just manage to stay afloat. To me it felt very statistical, the whole book.
fivebooks.com 3 Jan 2011
Recommends How Animals Work
The book has a lot of things like that. He's looking at things that people take for granted, and saying, you can't just take these things for granted, these are amazing feats of engineering.
fivebooks.com 3 Jan 2011
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Recommends Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
This work started out as a bit of a curiosity in the field of psychology, but we get a lot of insight from it, it is absolutely essential to understanding how humans think.
fivebooks.com 3 Jan 2011
What others say about Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases →
Recommends The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract
Baseball and statistics traditionally go together. One of my inspirations to become a statistician was reading The Bill James Baseball Abstracts.
fivebooks.com 3 Jan 2011
What others say about The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract →
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