Lyn Alden
Investment researcher and engineer who runs Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, writing on macroeconomics, currency systems and equity analysis.
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What they believe
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Businesses acquired by private equity funds fail more often than average because of the leverage loaded onto them.
Businesses that emerge out of PE funds have higher failure rates than average, thanks to being saddled with a lot of leverage.
lynalden.comSaid 15 Jul 2026This on korrents
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Fractional reserve banks are structurally interconnected and unstable in a way most other industries are not.
That's due to the fractional reserve structure of banks. They're unstable and reliant on each other by design, more closely than companies in most other industries.
lynalden.comSaid 11 Mar 2026This on korrents
The bold line is korrents’ wording; the quote is theirs. These 2: what they wrote before what they said aloud, one per source, newest first.
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15 July
From one piece An Alternative to Private Equity: Introducing ORANGE JUICE 3 beliefs · lynalden.com
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Their words
Privately held businesses in the United States are collectively worth trillions of dollars, and demographically speaking, they have an aging set of owners who are seeking liquidity or diversification as they explore how to pass on what they've built.
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Their words
PE funds optimize for a 4-7 flip and typically resort to aggressive cost-cutting and near-term optimization at the cost of the "soul" of the business or what made it successful in the first place.
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korrents.com
Businesses acquired by private equity funds fail more often than average because of the leverage loaded onto them.Their words
Businesses that emerge out of PE funds have higher failure rates than average, thanks to being saddled with a lot of leverage.
13 March
11 March
From one piece Fractional Reserve Banking 101 3 beliefs · lynalden.com
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Their words
There were booms and busts, and cumulative price inflation was zero, and the United States went from a new-world emerging backwater in the late 1700s to being the world's largest economy by the late 1800s.
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Their words
Another way of putting it is that a collection of dozens of solvent well-run banks can still be broken as a group if they become greatly overleveraged compared to how many depositors want their money back at once.
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korrents.com
Fractional reserve banks are structurally interconnected and unstable in a way most other industries are not.Their words
That's due to the fractional reserve structure of banks. They're unstable and reliant on each other by design, more closely than companies in most other industries.
1 December 2025
From one piece Why Most Cryptocurrencies Won’t Accrue Value 3 beliefs · lynalden.com
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korrents.com
Decentralized finance mainly converts custodial risk into technical risk rather than eliminating risk altogether.Their words
While there is some utility value in DeFi, it basically lets users transform custodial risk into technical risk (e.g. bridge protocol hacks), which is not a free lunch.
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korrents.com
Bitcoin's roughly $2 trillion market capitalization is still early relative to its long-term adoption potential.Their words
In my view, Bitcoin at a ~$2 trillion market capitalization remains rather early.
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Their words
Utility protocols face heavy competition, and thus their value trends toward their marginal cost of operation.
6 July 2025
From one piece The Rise of Bitcoin Stocks and Bonds 3 beliefs · lynalden.com
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Their words
Bitcoin is not going to catch on as a charity. In order for spending it to catch on persistently at scale (i.e. not just billions of dollar-equivalents in annual global medium-of-exchange volume, but trillions), it has to solve problems for spenders and/or recipients that other solutions are not doing.
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Their words
If a new monetary network with its own unit (i.e. not pegged to an existing currency as a credit rail on top of it, but rather a fully parallel system to central banks) is going to bootstrap from zero to massive, it requires upward volatility.
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Their words
So, daily leverage is pretty bad unless you're a short-term trader. Volatility hurts that type of leverage.
27 February 2025
8 January 2025
From one piece Full Steam Ahead: All Aboard Fiscal Dominance 3 beliefs · lynalden.com
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Their words
Since inflation is not primarily driven by private-sector lending in the current environment, making borrowing more expensive will not significantly cool the economy.
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Their words
Structural fiscal deficits have surpassed private sector lending and monetary policy as the primary drivers of economic activity and inflation, marking a fundamental shift in the economy's liquidity dynamics.
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korrents.com
The United States is not at risk of a financial crisis caused by the size of its government debt.optimismdisciplinegovernmentAmerica
Their words
Stabilizing factors such as the global demand for U.S. dollars and debt denominated in its own currency suggest an era of fiscal dominance in the U.S. that's less dramatic than alarmists predict but more persistent and intractable than optimists hope.
24 September 2024
4 August 2024
20 July 2024
28 April 2024
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Beliefs
Korrents What they believe 18 beliefs — each backed by an exact quote.
Each is a — compiled by korrents.com, not by them: the one-line wordings are korrents', the quotes are theirs.
Recent
Businesses acquired by private equity funds fail more often than average because of the leverage loaded onto them.
Businesses that emerge out of PE funds have higher failure rates than average, thanks to being saddled with a lot of leverage.
An Alternative to Private Equity: Introducing ORANGE JUICE Said 15 Jul 2026
Private equity's short fund cycles push firms toward aggressive cost-cutting that erodes what made an acquired business successful.
PE funds optimize for a 4-7 flip and typically resort to aggressive cost-cutting and near-term optimization at the cost of the "soul" of the business or what made it successful in the first place.
An Alternative to Private Equity: Introducing ORANGE JUICE Said 15 Jul 2026
A large generation of small business owners is aging and looking for liquidity or diversification as they plan succession.
Privately held businesses in the United States are collectively worth trillions of dollars, and demographically speaking, they have an aging set of owners who are seeking liquidity or diversification as they explore how to pass on what they've built.
An Alternative to Private Equity: Introducing ORANGE JUICE Said 15 Jul 2026
Show 15 more
Fractional reserve banks are structurally interconnected and unstable in a way most other industries are not.
That's due to the fractional reserve structure of banks. They're unstable and reliant on each other by design, more closely than companies in most other industries.
Fractional Reserve Banking 101 Said 11 Mar 2026
A group of individually solvent banks can still collectively fail if the banking system as a whole becomes too leveraged relative to potential withdrawal demand.
Another way of putting it is that a collection of dozens of solvent well-run banks can still be broken as a group if they become greatly overleveraged compared to how many depositors want their money back at once.
Fractional Reserve Banking 101 Said 11 Mar 2026
An economy on a fixed, unprintable base money supply can sustain rapid long-run growth with zero cumulative price inflation.
There were booms and busts, and cumulative price inflation was zero, and the United States went from a new-world emerging backwater in the late 1700s to being the world's largest economy by the late 1800s.
Fractional Reserve Banking 101 Said 11 Mar 2026
Utility blockchains that provide useful services tend not to accrue much long-term value to their coinholders, unlike a winning monetary protocol.
Utility protocols face heavy competition, and thus their value trends toward their marginal cost of operation.
Why Most Cryptocurrencies Won’t Accrue Value Said 1 Dec 2025
Bitcoin's roughly $2 trillion market capitalization is still early relative to its long-term adoption potential.
In my view, Bitcoin at a ~$2 trillion market capitalization remains rather early.
Why Most Cryptocurrencies Won’t Accrue Value Said 1 Dec 2025
Decentralized finance mainly converts custodial risk into technical risk rather than eliminating risk altogether.
While there is some utility value in DeFi, it basically lets users transform custodial risk into technical risk (e.g. bridge protocol hacks), which is not a free lunch.
Why Most Cryptocurrencies Won’t Accrue Value Said 1 Dec 2025
Daily-reset leveraged ETFs underperform their underlying asset over volatile periods, making them unsuitable outside short-term trading.
So, daily leverage is pretty bad unless you're a short-term trader. Volatility hurts that type of leverage.
The Rise of Bitcoin Stocks and Bonds Said 6 Jul 2025
A new monetary network with its own unit can only bootstrap from zero to mass adoption through a period of upward price volatility.
If a new monetary network with its own unit (i.e. not pegged to an existing currency as a credit rail on top of it, but rather a fully parallel system to central banks) is going to bootstrap from zero to massive, it requires upward volatility.
The Rise of Bitcoin Stocks and Bonds Said 6 Jul 2025
Bitcoin's use as a medium of exchange will only grow at scale if it solves problems for spenders or recipients better than existing alternatives.
Bitcoin is not going to catch on as a charity. In order for spending it to catch on persistently at scale (i.e. not just billions of dollar-equivalents in annual global medium-of-exchange volume, but trillions), it has to solve problems for spenders and/or recipients that other solutions are not doing.
The Rise of Bitcoin Stocks and Bonds Said 6 Jul 2025
The United States is not at risk of a financial crisis caused by the size of its government debt.
Stabilizing factors such as the global demand for U.S. dollars and debt denominated in its own currency suggest an era of fiscal dominance in the U.S. that's less dramatic than alarmists predict but more persistent and intractable than optimists hope.
Full Steam Ahead: All Aboard Fiscal Dominance Said 8 Jan 2025
Structural fiscal deficits have surpassed private sector lending and monetary policy as the primary driver of economic activity and inflation.
Structural fiscal deficits have surpassed private sector lending and monetary policy as the primary drivers of economic activity and inflation, marking a fundamental shift in the economy's liquidity dynamics.
Full Steam Ahead: All Aboard Fiscal Dominance Said 8 Jan 2025
Raising interest rates cannot meaningfully cool inflation when structural fiscal deficits, not private-sector lending, are its main driver.
Since inflation is not primarily driven by private-sector lending in the current environment, making borrowing more expensive will not significantly cool the economy.
Full Steam Ahead: All Aboard Fiscal Dominance Said 8 Jan 2025
Bitcoin tracks the direction of global liquidity more consistently than any other major asset class.
Bitcoin moves in the direction of global liquidity 83% of the time in any given 12-month period, which is higher than any other major asset class, making it a strong barometer of liquidity conditions.
Bitcoin: A Global Liquidity Barometer Said 24 Sept 2024
Since the Global Financial Crisis, unconventional monetary policy has become the dominant force driving asset prices, more than fundamentals.
Since then, these unconventional monetary policies have increasingly become the dominant force moving asset prices.
Bitcoin: A Global Liquidity Barometer Said 24 Sept 2024
As Bitcoin's ecosystem matures and regulatory clarity increases, idiosyncratic 'Black Swan' shocks to its price will become less frequent.
as the Bitcoin ecosystem matures, infrastructure improves, and more regulatory clarity emerges, I expect the frequency of these 'Black Swan' events to diminish over time.
Bitcoin: A Global Liquidity Barometer Said 24 Sept 2024
Beliefs others hold too
The United States is not at risk of a financial crisis caused by the size of its government debt. 2 hold this
Stabilizing factors such as the global demand for U.S. dollars and debt denominated in its own currency suggest an era of fiscal dominance in the U.S. that's less dramatic than alarmists predict but more persistent and intractable than optimists hope.
Full Steam Ahead: All Aboard Fiscal Dominance Said 8 Jan 2025
What is a korrent?
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Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said. The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public statements, and a person can change their mind, which is recorded too.
Recommends rcmnd
rcmnd What they recommend 7 things — each backed by an exact quote.
Compiled by rcmnd.app, not by them: the quotes are theirs, and each links to the post it was copied from.
Recent
Recommends The Little Book That Still Beats the Market
Joel Greenblatt is one of the highest-performing value investors around, and this simple book gives an accessible outline of his formula.
lynalden.com 30 Jan 2019
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What others say about The Little Book That Still Beats the Market →
Recommends StockDelver
Since you’re on my website, you probably enjoy my work. If that’s the case, then my book StockDelver will be of use to you, if you like investing in individual stocks.
lynalden.com 30 Jan 2019
their own
Recommends The Lessons of History
It’s not an investing book, but The Lessons of History is one of the most important books for long-term investors to read, in my opinion.
lynalden.com 30 Jan 2019
affiliate link
Show 4 more
Recommends Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises
His book Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises is an important read for investors that want to protect themselves from or benefit from recessions and other financial crises.
lynalden.com 30 Jan 2019
affiliate link
What others say about Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises →
Loved The Most Important Thing
In addition, he has turned some of those memos into books, and I think The Most Important Thing is the best one. Warren Buffett asked him to write it.
lynalden.com 30 Jan 2019
affiliate link
Loved How to Exercise Primally
And I love these two articles from Mark Sisson, a former triathlete and marathon runner: How to Exercise Primally The 10 Rules of Successful Exercise
lynalden.com 12 Jan 2017
Recommends the work of Dr. Sarah Ballantyne
If you suffer one of those diseases, in addition to talking to your doctor, I recommend the work of Dr. Sarah Ballantyne. She has a PhD in medical biophysics, and managed to cure four of her own severe autoimmune diseases with the autoimmune protocol.
lynalden.com 12 Jan 2017
Where they publish
Site lynalden.com Her research site: free articles, newsletters and premium research.
Recent
- An Alternative to Private Equity: Introducing ORANGE JUICE 15 Jul 2026 July 15, 2026 The rest of the team at Ego Death Capital and I have partnered with Adrian Steckel and Ruben Zweiban to launch ORANGE JUICE. It’s a company that acquires, improves, and permanently holds cash-flowing busin…
- New Book: The Stolguard Incident 13 Mar 2026 My new sci fi thriller, The Stolguard Incident, is now available! It can be purchased in print, ebook, or audio versions on Amazon here. You can also find the print version on Barnes & Noble here, or you may be able to…
- Fractional Reserve Banking 101 11 Mar 2026 Banks work in ways that are unintuitive for a lot of people. And yet, understanding the banking system as a whole is really helpful for investing, because having a grasp of how the banking system is functioning helps yo…
Show 7 more
- Why Most Cryptocurrencies Won’t Accrue Value 1 Dec 2025 December 2025 For many years now, I’ve been bullish on bitcoin, and continue to be, but have not extended that view toward any other cryptocurrency. That decision continues to hold up well. Since I first recommended it…
- The Rise of Bitcoin Stocks and Bonds 6 Jul 2025 Originally published: July 2025 During the past year or so, the Bitcoin ecosystem has largely been led by the rise of corporate bitcoin treasury strategies. Although Strategy (MSTR) pioneered the trend back in 2020, the…
- Twitter/X Restored 27 Feb 2025 My Twitter/X account was compromised from February 26th to March 3rd, but I confirm that I’ve regained control of it now. Thank you to everyone who helped make it happen. Fortunately, I still had access to Nostr during…
- Full Steam Ahead: All Aboard Fiscal Dominance 8 Jan 2025 This research piece on fiscal dominance in the United States was compiled and written by Sam Callahan, and commissioned and advised by Lyn Alden. Published: January 2025 Executive Summary • Structural fiscal deficits ha…
- Bitcoin: A Global Liquidity Barometer 24 Sept 2024 This research piece on the correlation between measures of liquidity and the price of Bitcoin was compiled and written by Sam Callahan, and commissioned and advised by Lyn Alden. Published: September 2024 Executive Summ…
- A New Look at Corporate Treasury Strategy 4 Aug 2024 Published: August 2024 In the modern era of corporate finance, the balance sheet of a corporation has trended toward being less important relative to the income statement. Back during Benjamin Graham’s quintessential va…
- The Power of Nostr: Decentralized Social Media and More 20 Jul 2024 Published: July 2024 It would be powerful if you could bring your digital identity, content, and followers from one social ecosystem, such as Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram, or Substack, to another. Imagine if you could p…
Link verified 4 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
x.com @LynAldenContact Macro and markets commentary.
Recent
- The feed is all Avatar/Korra now. Macro and that show. 15 Oct 2026
- Globally yes. Locally no. 14 Oct 2026
- Sometimes it's the person not being right for the job, but more broadly the weirder the situation gets, the harder it is to be the one to stand up there and try to explain why things aren't weird. 13 Oct 2026
Show 17 more
- Fiscal dominance. And it begs the question; if hikes don’t have the same effect, is going further really the answer? 13 Oct 2026
- As a structural bond bear, I actually don’t find this recent bear surge in bonds surprising. The yield curve is still flat, nothing is broken. It’s almost expected. But now, the more people talk about it, the more I might become neutral on bonds. 12 Oct 2026
- I really enjoyed this chart and history book by @MebFaber For people who like macro and market history, it’s a really cool physical resource. 11 Oct 2026
- Who ever thought Voldemort was cool? He was never cool. If anything, he was so uncool that he was hard to care about and that was a flaw of the series. Wizard Hitler but lower energy. 9 Oct 2026
- Is Brent becoming my latest ally on fiscal dominance? 7 Oct 2026
- And here it was explained, three and a half years earlier, why inflation remains unfixed, fiscal dominance is more in the news, and ultimately, nothing stops this train. 7 Oct 2026
- Rather than saying the thing, I’ll just point out they vote harder than other ages do. 6 Oct 2026
- I briefly got into some nostalgic Pokémon tweets and now that’s my new “for you” feed. It’s like bond yields mixed with Pokémon now. It’s almost as though the “for you” feed is a snapshot of your weakest moments locked in for the next few weeks. 6 Oct 2026
- On fiscal dominance nuances. 3 Oct 2026
- If you want fiscal dominance in a chart, here it is. 3 Oct 2026
- Over time, AI will make informational content cheaper and cheaper. What's left? Silicon Valley people call it "taste", and I think that's valid. Financially, that means signal. What you'll notice from me is what I choose to object to. The exceptions. That's signal. 1 Oct 2026
- Some people ask me if I'm less involved in FinTwit these days. My answer is not really. I love y'all. It's my work. But as social media gets sillier and with AI, rather than repeat what I've said, I'm more selective. Quality over quantity. I try to emphasize signal. 1 Oct 2026
- I appreciate the mention. Great discussion. I'd clarify that it's not just about what's "allowed." Rather, it's about what's mathematically baked in. The US is pre-running potential recessions with 7% stimulatory deficits. That shapes potential recessions; doesn't outlaw them. 1 Oct 2026
- Nobody is "losing the end" of the bond curve. The yield curve is flat, not steep. Rather, some people are losing the argument for what interest rates should be in this environment and the market is adjusting accordingly. Nothing stops this train. 1 Oct 2026
- Alright, here are my 9 games. 28 Sept 2026
- I'm actually growing followers faster than ever but it feels artificial. I dunno. I have a feeling tech bros are messing with algorithms here relative to prior baselines. Like inserting weirdness where things were just organic. 26 Sept 2026
- The separation of posts and reposts has made me post less. I don't know if it's bad or good but that happened. I just feel like I'm being gamed more lately, so I'm like, I dunno, I'll just post less here and write more sci fi?" 26 Sept 2026
Link verified 4 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
LinkedIn linkedin.com/in/lynalden Professional profile.
Link verified 4 Sept 2026.
YouTube @LynAldenMedia Video versions of her macro research.
Link verified 4 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
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