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20 September
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
Statistician at Columbia; writes Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, and wrote Bayesian Data Analysis.
18 September
Writer of kottke.org, one of the oldest blogs on the web, published since 1998 and supported by its members. He writes about art, technology, science, design and visual culture.
Mastodon “The clan of predators currently in charge of the U.S. federal government” are striving to make the world safe for grift, corruption, and theft, with their mob boss president leading the way. theatlantic.com
America government Related
Bluesky “The clan of predators currently in charge of the U.S. federal government” are striving to make the world safe for grift, corruption, and theft, with their mob boss president leading the way. theatlantic.com
America government Related
Economist at George Mason University. Writes Overcoming Bias on prediction markets, signalling and the far future, and wrote The Age of Em and The Elephant in the Brain.
Epidemiologist; founded Your Local Epidemiologist in March 2020 to translate public-health science, and consults for organisations including the CDC.
17 September
Economics professor at George Mason University and author of The Myth of the Rational Voter, Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids, The Case Against Education and Open Borders. Writes Bet On It.
It's a claim I'd bet on. But yes, prediction far outside of the observed range is hard. Quoting @DanielDiMartino @QuinnMacp @bryan_caplan This requires being able to estimate not just the point elasticity of demand but much of the curve shape, that is difficult to extrapolate fo 700K from the EB-5 program which is just about 10K visas. But open to ideas. This is something I want to estimate Related
Singaporean writer and author of FRIENDLY AMBITIOUS NERD; blogs at visakanv.com about ambition, writing and thinking in public.
the antidote to longtermism is to picture any longtermist who may have existed in history before today and game out the decisions they would have made with the information they had it quickly becomes apparent that prediction and model errors are inevitable and ruinous Quoting @banteg >be me >discover effective altruism >apparently normal charity is inefficient >why donate to random sad thing when spreadsheet can tell you optimal sad thing >fair enough >buy mosquito nets >save lives >numbers look good >feel powerful >couple years later >someone asks an innocent question >why onl… Related
16 September
Zurich-based value investor who ran the Aquamarine Fund from 1997 to 2025 and wrote The Education of a Value Investor. He hosts the VALUEx gathering in Klosters and publishes a podcast and newsletter.
Anti-Semitism is the organization of politics against the Jews - Ruth Wisse: Otherwise known as: Why confront your own failures when you can blame the Jews—or the world’s only Jewish state? If I were a Birmingham resident I would be furious Quoting @habibi_uk "We at Birmingham Labour really want you to know that we are doing everything we can to hurt Israel." Just what the troubled city of foul hate preaching and rallies for racist terrorists really, really needs, eh. Nothing on Hamas, of course. And they didn't even mention antisemitism, now energised… Related
Geneticist and writer on human population genetics, deep history and evolution; author of the Unsupervised Learning newsletter.
lot of the responses to me the last few days (as usual when i get surfaced in some parts of X) is that i'm anti-white. i'm really not, but if you think i am, you are either retarded or nazi-grade racist. which is fine. but then we know it's beyond discussion what needs to happen Quoting @SarahTheHaider I spent the better part of a decade pushing back against anti-white racism, and suffered immensely for it, both professionally and personally. People tried to get me fired for standing up for the Covington Catholic kids! It was the right thing to do, and I would do it again. But I did expect that v… Related
Founder of the Free Software Movement and the GNU Project, original author of GNU Emacs and the GNU General Public License, and long-time president of the Free Software Foundation.
Economics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletter.
Economics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletter.
Their words
The anti-Indian idiots have really convinced themselves that Indians are a bunch of dumdums despite out-earning every other ethnic group in the country.
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@Noahpinion on X x.com
15 September
Writer of Lenny's Newsletter and host of Lenny's Podcast, covering product, growth and career in tech. Previously a product lead at Airbnb. Also an angel investor and advisor.
Growth tactic #13: "🎈Go anti-professional: One of the most viral LinkedIn posts of all time came from a manager who swapped her corporate headshot for a casual, no-makeup photo. Pick a norm of your own and break it in public. You might talk about how much roles actually pay or admit that a big launch didn’t actually meet internal expectations. People are tired of perfectly curated, glossy exteriors of the professional world, so a bit of human messiness will stand out." More here: lennysnewsletter.com
Quoting @lennysan 60+ creative growth ideas Everyone's running the same growth playbook: high-production launch videos, paid influencers, AEO, social, maybe some (poorly attended) events. Your competitors are in the same channels competing for the same eyeballs. But attention goes to what people don't see coming. Th… Related
Writes Slow Boring, a near-daily newsletter on American politics and public policy; co-founded Vox in 2014 and left it in 2020.
14 September
Founding executive editor of Wired and author of What Technology Wants and The Inevitable. Writes at kk.org and runs its long-running recommendation projects, True Films and Cool Tools.
Co-founder and CEO of OpenAI; previously president of Y Combinator.
The world deserves confidence that American companies developing increasingly capable AI will act responsibly, especially as the trajectory of progress has steepened. Every frontier lab must deliver on this, and there is no reason any of us should come to work if we cannot. We welcome a federal framework that sets consistent safety requirements for frontier AI. But we do not believe we need to wait for an anti-trust exemption or legislation to begin the work of providing this confidence. Consistent rules to manage frontier risk so that we can maximize the benefits are a good idea (and we are… America Related
Economist and Nobel laureate. Wrote a New York Times column for 25 years until December 2024 and now publishes several times a week on Substack.
Political scientist writing Drezner's World on international relations, American politics and the marketplace of ideas; author of The Ideas Industry.
13 September
Co-founder and CTO of Oxide Computer Company. Created DTrace at Sun Microsystems and was CTO of Joyent; blogs about systems software, open source and engineering culture.
I am surely not alone in having family over the weekend hitting me up asking "should I be worried about extinction?" As a response, I have found that my anti-Doomer talk from @monktoberfest.com 2023 (three very long years ago!) remains current and accessible: youtube.com
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Economist at George Mason University, co-author of Marginal Revolution, host of Conversations with Tyler. Writes in short, dense claims about economics, culture and AI, and has moved position on AI in public more than once.
12 September
Co-creator of Django and creator of Datasette; writes daily at simonwillison.net.
OpenAI
Their words
Frustratingly, the actual code it ran and exact details of what it did weren’t visible to me in the ChatGPT UI. I see this lack of transparency is an anti-feature.
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simonwillison.net
11 September
Programmer, writer and musician; author of the Learn Code the Hard Way books and of Mongrel, the Ruby web server.
Started late today but I'm streaming more OpenGL education. I'm doing anti-aliasing but I'm kind of meh on it and might just skip it and move on to advanced lighting techniques: twitch.tv
Related
Founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975 and led it until stepping back from control in 2022. Author of Principles, The Changing World Order and How Countries Go Broke; publishes economic analysis at economicprinciples.org.
This happens as long-term rates rise relative to short-term rates. Though they try to hold short rates down, long rates are climbing, a trend we are already seeing. We are also seeing a weakening dollar and movements in gold. As rates rise, it starts to affect the stock market. With bonds dropping and stocks rising, the prospective returns of stocks are now low compared to bonds, translating into broader stock market pressure. This classic dynamic creates a stagflationary environment that the Federal Reserve struggles to manage. With current stagflation, the Fed wrestles with whether to tight… interest rates Related
Economic historian at Columbia; writes Chartbook on economics, geopolitics and history, and wrote Crashed and The Deluge.
Their words
Rather than thinking of this set of preferences as incoherent, or merely the expression of a sectional petty bourgeois interest, it makes more sense, surely, to view it as a coherent set of anti-systemic views.
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adamtooze.substack.com
10 September
Principal engineer at Cloudflare as of 2026, on agents and developer tooling. Streams TypeScript, OCaml and Neovim on Twitch, and wrote the better-result library after writing the same Result type about a hundred times.
Political scientist writing Drezner's World on international relations, American politics and the marketplace of ideas; author of The Ideas Industry.
9 September
Canadian software developer and writer, co-editor of the XML and Atom specifications and formerly of Sun Microsystems, Google and AWS. Has written the blog ongoing since 2003.
Vancouver’s progressive anti-Ken-Sim municipal parties have coalesced behind Pete Fry as Bill Azaroff gracefully steps aside: https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/william-azaroff-vancouver-election-mayoral-announcement-sept-8 I’ve met both gents and either would be a vastly better mayor than Sim. I do prefer Fry though, first of all I’m a Green, second, he’s been on council for years and knows how things work. Ken Sim is toast. #Vancouver #election #election2026 Related
8 September
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom since July 2026 and leader of the Labour Party. MP for Makerfield since a by-election in June 2026; Mayor of Greater Manchester from 2017 before that.
In a difficult and dangerous world, a decade on from Brexit, there is a risk that Britain loses the confidence to lead and stand up for its values. I’m not prepared to let that happen. It is more important than ever that Britain stands for something. We have called for years for a two-state solution in the Middle East, but we must recognise that those words are meaningless unless we back them up with action. For too long, we have been hesitant to act, fearful of being accused of being anti-Israel. Today we are announcing carefully judged, targeted steps that are not aimed at the Israeli peopl… Related
Mathematician and Senior Lecturer in the Mathematics department at Columbia University. Author of the book Not Even Wrong and of the long-running physics blog of the same name.
7 September
Founder and CEO of Social Capital, a venture firm; co-host of the All-In podcast and an early Facebook executive. Writes an annual letter and a weekly newsletter on markets and technology.
Innovation and economic growth are inversely correlated to federal bureaucracy. So this is a very good sign for future innovation and economic expansion. Quoting @Polymarket JUST IN: Federal government workforce shrinks to about 2.67 million employees, the lowest level since the 1960s, according to federal labor data. Related
Economic historian at Columbia; writes Chartbook on economics, geopolitics and history, and wrote Crashed and The Deluge.
immigration government
Their words
Voting for the AfD in the current landscape, whatever your economic issues, in short, is not a vote to have your economic issues addressed by social democracy, or welfare or government intervention.
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adamtooze.substack.com
CEO of Box.
Their words
The AI jobs prediction so far is playing out the opposite of what many thought.
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@levie on X x.com
5 September
Software engineer and founder of Block Party; previously an engineer at Pinterest and Quora, and a co-founder of the non-profit Project Include and the tech diversity data project Where are the Numbers?
been a little skeptical of all the ai assistants (is it just vcs who love them?) but instinct is busy handling tax extension filings in 5 different states + federal for me and i am SOLD Related
4 September
Programmer and writer on computer architecture, performance, and software reliability. He has worked on CPU design at Centaur Technology and on software at Google and Microsoft, and writes long-form technical essays at danluu.com.
This 2020 prediction that learning about security will be good for your career is looking pretty good right now. Quoting @halvarflake Pretty concrete career advice unrelated to my own career: Cloud security is a nascent field with few good solutions and lots of greenfield to invent the future. Only 20% of IT spend is in the cloud, but it will reach 80%. Getting in early will make you an expert in 5 years time. Related
Author and journalist writing on food, plants and consciousness. Professor at UC Berkeley and co-founder of its Center for the Science of Psychedelics.
Sequoia Professor of Computer Science at Stanford, co-director of the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI, and co-founder and CEO of World Labs.
From one piece
Why Fei-Fei Li Is Betting on Spatial Intelligence
2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
Their words
we do believe very strongly that next viewpoint prediction is is the equivalent of next token prediction.
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youtube.com
Their words
So okay, so to take a evolutionary view, right? That new viewpoint prediction is exactly evolution had to solve by making animals move. You you nature give animals eyes. But nature didn't give trees eye. Eyes. Why? Because when you move, you see a new viewpoint.
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youtube.com
American-Polish journalist and historian, staff writer at The Atlantic; author of Gulag, Iron Curtain, Twilight of Democracy and Autocracy, Inc.
3 September
Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.
Some questions: Would inflation be even worse if we weren’t in a housing recession? Are private markets the perfect place to hide fraud? Are colleges screwed? Is NVDA the anti-bubble? How important is the wealth effect to the economy? inflation Related
Dutch bootstrapper who builds and runs their internet startups alone — Nomads.com, Remote OK, Hoodmaps, Photo AI and Interior AI — and has written about it at levels.io since 2013. Posts as @levelsio.
Europe
Their words
Portugal's choice is cultural though and completely fits the general spirit in Europe which is fully anti-tech, anti-AI, anti-entrepreneurship, anti-business and anti-progress
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levels.io
2 September
Cognitive scientist and long-standing critic of deep learning's claims; writes Marcus on AI and wrote Rebooting AI.
1 September
Writes Pedestrian Observations on public transit and why infrastructure costs what it does; a pure mathematician by training, comparing how different countries build.
Epidemiologist; founded Your Local Epidemiologist in March 2020 to translate public-health science, and consults for organisations including the CDC.
Writer and climate campaigner; wrote The End of Nature in 1989, founded 350.org and Third Act, and writes The Crucial Years.
31 August
Software engineer, Wikipedia editor and crypto critic; writes Citation Needed and runs Web3 is Going Just Great.
Front-end developer and writer; co-founder of CodePen, founder of CSS-Tricks, and co-host of the ShopTalk Show podcast.
government
Their words
Sometimes I get super nervous that someday the US government is really going to fuck with the web. Like they are going to decide they just don't have enough control over it and are going to get really heavy-handed somehow.
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46 chriscoyier.net
26 August
Co-founder and CTO of Oxide Computer Company. Created DTrace at Sun Microsystems and was CTO of Joyent; blogs about systems software, open source and engineering culture.
A really interesting thread generally from @swtch.com -- and fascinating to watch Claude (correctly) do the archaeology. Confession: Claude's inability to verify www.illumos.org/issues/4627 (which it correctly identified as the bug) has me questioning the anti-bot provisions on the bug database... Quoting @swtch.com Go issue #78438 was another net/http test flake. This one turned out to be Go tripping over a Solaris kernel bug that predates the Illumos fork. @bcantrill.bsky.social fixed it in 2014! Hurry up, Oracle! research.swtch.com/agentlogs/so... Anthropic Related
Mathematician and Senior Lecturer in the Mathematics department at Columbia University. Author of the book Not Even Wrong and of the long-running physics blog of the same name.
25 August
Writer of the personal-finance blog Of Dollars And Data and author of Just Keep Buying and The Wealth Ladder. Chief Operating Officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
Writer of the personal-finance blog Of Dollars And Data and author of Just Keep Buying and The Wealth Ladder. Chief Operating Officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
America
Their words, before
It’s not that any one of these things represents a mania, but collectively they do. And I know what can happen after that mania.
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Their words now
Since then U.S. stocks are up 16% (total return) and my bearish prediction turned out to be misguided.
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24 August
Founder and CEO of Social Capital, a venture firm; co-host of the All-In podcast and an early Facebook executive. Writes an annual letter and a weekly newsletter on markets and technology.
22 August
Founder and former CEO of Zynga, the social-games company behind FarmVille, Zynga Poker and Words with Friends; says he founded ten companies in all, and wrote Life at the Speed of Play.
Here is the actual threat to Western democracy and freedom. AIPAC is battling the DSA and extreme left but portrayed as anti American. Meanwhile Qatar, muslim brotherhood, CAIR are supporting the most America hating candidates. Hiding in plain sight as always. Quoting @paulsperry_ BREAKING: The Shariah-ruling arm of the US Muslim Brotherhood has issued a fatwah unlocking an estimated $140 million a year in tithing (zakat) from American Muslims to finance the campaigns of Muslim leaders for public office including the House & Senate America Related
21 August
Writer and former Substack product manager; publishes essays and interviews on technology, culture and China at jasmi.news.
20 August
Co-founder and CTO of Linear; previously an engineer at Uber.
Pass a law that dynamically adds a multiplier to all federal taxes based on the projected deficit. Related
18 August
US science and technology adviser to the president, director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy; previously US chief technology officer and chief operating officer of Scale AI.
From one piece
Michael Kratsios: Inside the White House's AI Strategy
2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
Their words
we would urge Congress to to be able to pass some sort of some sort of law around around preemption so we don't have this crazy patchwork of all these different states doing all these different things these things on AI.
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youtube.com
America government
Their words
Over time that has sort of inverted completely. The private sector plus philanthropy now do about 70% of R&D and the and the government only does about 30.
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youtube.com
14 August
Writes Very Serious, a newsletter on politics, the economy and culture, and hosts the podcast of the same name.
Non-fiction writer, podcaster and occasional TV host. Author of thirteen books including The Ghost Map, Where Good Ideas Come From and Extra Life, host of the PBS series How We Got To Now, and author of the Adjacent Possible newsletter on innovation.
I thoroughly enjoyed going deep with @nxthompson on AI and the future of writing and creativity for The Most Interesting Thing in AI podcast. A few highlights: • How Nick and I have used @Gemini_Notebook to write our books • Why AI can lead to more serendipitous discovery in the research process (at least using Notebook’s citation-based approach) • The brilliance of the “explain” button in Notebook’s quiz feature • AI as the anti-social-media, with its gravitational pull towards mainstream consensus (citing @danwilliamsphil) • Why our attachment to the human voice of the writer is not going a… Quoting @nxthompson Few people have put more time into figuring out how creativity works than @stevenbjohnson. How do we link ideas in our mind, and how can we use tools to make that linking easier? He's not only written some of my favorite books of the past few decades; he's also written some of my favorite essays ab… Google Related
13 August
Physicist and science communicator. Writes Backreaction and makes videos explaining new physics and astronomy results, frequently to argue that the headline about them overstates the case.
The War on AI Has Begun The war on artificial intelligence is no longer just online arguments and complaints about data centers. Something has shifted, and law enforcement has noticed. Where did this new anti-technology movement come from, who…
data centers Related
31 July
Co-founder and CEO of Stripe and co-founder of the Arc Institute. Keeps a personal site of reading lists, open questions and notes on scientific progress and how research is funded.
startups
Their words
many of the companies that were most successful over the last 10 years, so many of them are are very anti-lean startup, right? Uh whether it's, you know, the labs themselves or Anduril or um yeah, you you you you can go down the list. A lot of them have this characteristic.
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youtube.com
26 July
Roboticist; co-founded iRobot and Rethink Robotics, directed the MIT AI Lab, and publishes a scorecard grading his own dated predictions about AI, robots and self-driving.
House Cleaning My January 1, 2018 Predictions Quick Summary: I am going to continue to do my yearly update on three sets of technologies every January 1st. I am going to decouple them from my prediction tables from the first post on January 1st, 2018, as the dates…
Related
25 July
Writes Pedestrian Observations on public transit and why infrastructure costs what it does; a pure mathematician by training, comparing how different countries build.
24 July
Writer and former Substack product manager; publishes essays and interviews on technology, culture and China at jasmi.news.
data center road trip // day 6-7 I don't think the data center backlash is about AI being evil or risky — but it does reflect people finding AI uniquely useless for example: is the data center backlash just like the backlash to solar farms? @nicholas_bagley observed that both movements use classic NIMBY playbooks: Facebook groups, FOIA requests, packing city council. both also involve land use tensions between rural towns and state directives. yet the Saline, MI activists I met were pro-solar farms and anti-data center. first, data center deals are more secretive with more NDAs and bigger $$… Quoting @jasminewsun I’m spending the next week driving around Wisconsin and Michigan to get a firsthand view of the data center buildout and backlash am visiting sites, talking to tons of people — tradespeople, activists, planners, residents — then writing up a story lmk what questions I should dig into! solar data centers Related
21 July
Experimental psychologist and author of the blog Experimental History, on psychology, science reform and creativity.
Their words
What stands out about Hsieh's version is that her roots occupy such a unique spot in history: her grandparents were Chinese born in Indonesia, which means they got caught between the rock of the Cultural Revolution and the hard place of anti-communist backlash.
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experimental-history.com
20 July
Author of Recoding America; founded Code for America and was US deputy chief technology officer from 2013 to 2014. Writes Eating Policy on why governments cannot do what they decide to do.
13 July
Labour politician. Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from July 2024 to June 2026, and MP for Holborn and St Pancras from 2015 until standing down in 2026. Director of Public Prosecutions before entering Parliament.
Shocking news that Counter Terrorism Police are investigating a credible, serious threat targeted at an Islamic event in Suffolk. Thanks to the quick action taken by police and the organisers, nobody was hurt. My message is clear: I will not tolerate any attacks on our Muslim communities, or any form of anti-Muslim hatred. Related
12 July
General partner at Andreessen Horowitz from 2013 to 2018 and CTO of Coinbase from 2018 to 2019; co-founder of Counsyl and Earn.com. Wrote The Network State (2022), free in full at thenetworkstate.com, and founded the Network School.
From one piece
The Network State
2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
4 July
Physician focused on longevity; wrote Outlive and hosts The Drive.
30 June
Writes Pedestrian Observations on public transit and why infrastructure costs what it does; a pure mathematician by training, comparing how different countries build.
26 June
Geneticist and writer on human population genetics, deep history and evolution; author of the Unsupervised Learning newsletter.
21 June
Freelance climate and energy analyst in Oslo, writing on Europe, the US and Australia; worked in the Australian renewables industry before that.
energy
Their words
Being pro-correctness, anti-theft and anti-fossil fuels automatically places you in an aggressively anti-generative-AI position.
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ketanjoshi.co
4 June
Economist at Oxford's Global Priorities Institute; works on what advanced AI would do to growth, saving and the long-run economy.
Their words
but of course, that's not what's happened, because as we've accumulated more wealth and you know, more advanced machines and and so on, we've expanded the range of things other than singers to spend our money on, and the share spent on singers has stayed sort of negligible. Um so likewise, that's sort of my central prediction about how future unfolds, though I it could go either way.
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youtube.com
Behavioural economist at Chicago Booth, professor of behavioural science and economics and director of AGI economics at Google DeepMind.
From one piece
The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell
2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
Their words
And if you look at Ricardo's predictions, they're actually right. If you look at all those jobs that made money in Ricardo's time, they got automated. So, if I was David Ricardo and I woke up and somebody told me all those jobs did get automated. And you ask me David Ricardo, like what do you think the prime age employment rate is in 2026? I think he would be surprised if you told him it was the highest it's ever been other than 2000.
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youtube.com
AI and jobs economists
Their words
rather than thinking about individual forecasts like what me and Phil are going to do, rather looking at kind of like basically generating prediction markets, where you get aggregate forecasts, where you get like kind of wisdom of the crowd effects. And kind of the reason that I think this is because we have been famously terrible at forecasting.
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youtube.com
29 May
Investigative journalist on policing, forensics and criminal justice; wrote Rise of the Warrior Cop and writes The Watch.
27 May
Software architect and futurist; founded ClariNet, chaired the EFF, and has written about robocars for two decades.
Builds developer tools — SST, and now OpenCode at Anomaly. Posts constantly on x.com and writes almost never; the blog stopped in 2021.
25 May
General partner at Andreessen Horowitz from 2013 to 2018 and CTO of Coinbase from 2018 to 2019; co-founder of Counsyl and Earn.com. Wrote The Network State (2022), free in full at thenetworkstate.com, and founded the Network School.
Unfortunately, I completely agree that the United States of America is rapidly descending into all-out conflict between left and right. The Luigi left, Kirk killers, anti-Tesla terrorists, and Altman attackers are already in shoot-on-sight mode against conservatives, libertarians, and technologists. The right isn’t there yet; they’re called reactionaries because they only react, so they’re always one cycle behind. Thus, the left has already started shooting while the right is still “only” mirroring the lawfare of last decade’s left. But anyone can see how incandescently angry the American rig… Quoting @romanhelmetguy Gonna try to explain this to tech CEOs again: Young Americans are pissed. They feel betrayed. Half have embraced the far right & want to cut off your access to cheap foreign labor. The other half have embraced the far left & want to cut off your head. One side will win. Choose. JavaScript America Related
Programmer and writer on computer architecture, performance, and software reliability. He has worked on CPU design at Centaur Technology and on software at Google and Microsoft, and writes long-form technical essays at danluu.com.
I was thinking about this prediction that we were going to see a lot more CPU bugs, danluu.com/cpu-bugs/, as yet another Intel CPU bug story is on the front page of HN. At the time, Intel threw quality under the bus in the name of velocity. I've seen this happen quite a few times now, sometimes with the stated intention of improving quality later. I'm sure it's ever happened, but I don't think I've ever seen a company do this and then ship very high quality products later. Related
24 May
Co-founder and CEO of Every. Writes the Chain of Thought column about working with AI tools and hosts the podcast AI & I.
From one piece
AI predictions: Job markets, Codex beats Claude, and the death of org charts | Dan Shipper
2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
SaaS
Their words
So, this is another good prediction. I would buy SAS stocks right now.
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youtube.com
Their words
Here's a prediction. I'm pretty sure every coding model on the market will still do this in a year. Every coding model on the market will take that instruction seriously.
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youtube.com
23 May
Professor of economics at George Mason University and Bartley J. Madden Chair at the Mercatus Center. Co-writes the blog Marginal Revolution and co-authors the textbook Modern Principles of Economics with Tyler Cowen.
22 May
Writes Very Serious, a newsletter on politics, the economy and culture, and hosts the podcast of the same name.
15 May
Writes Very Serious, a newsletter on politics, the economy and culture, and hosts the podcast of the same name.
From one piece
Fed Board Members: Stay In Your Seats
2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
23 April
Writes Very Serious, a newsletter on politics, the economy and culture, and hosts the podcast of the same name.
8 April
Investigative journalist on policing, forensics and criminal justice; wrote Rise of the Warrior Cop and writes The Watch.
26 March
Staff writer at The New Yorker, where he writes the Infinite Scroll column, and author of Filterworld and The Longing for Less.
11 March
Programmer and essayist who has worked at Amazon, Google, Grab and Sourcegraph. Best known for the long-form essays collected as Stevey's Drunken Blog Rants and Stevey's Blog Rants.
9 March
Economist; Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at MIT Sloan, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, and co-author of 13 Bankers and Power and Progress.
13 February
Co-founder and CEO of Anthropic; previously VP of research at OpenAI.
From one piece
Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”
2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
Their words
given the serious dangers that I lay out in adolescence of technology around things like the you know, kind of biological weapons and bioterrorism, autonomy risk and the timelines we've been talking about, like 10 years is an eternity. Like that's that's a that's a I I think that's a crazy thing to do.
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youtube.com
Their words
But but that's actually a very weak criterion, right? People thought I was saying like we won't need 90% of the software engineers. Those things are worlds apart, right?
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youtube.com
6 February
Professor of Cognitive and Computational Neuroscience at the University of Sussex, co-director of the Sussex Centre for Consciousness Science, and author of Being You: A New Science of Consciousness.
22 January
Law professor at Berkeley and the leading scholar of the Fourth Amendment as it applies to computers; writes at the Volokh Conspiracy.
Their words
Even if the policy is unconstitutional, as it seems to be, a person who is illegally searched probably can't sue ICE for violating their constitutional rights.
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reason.com
19 January
American writer and long-term traveller. Blogs at tynan.com about travel, owning few possessions, habits and the gear he carries; author of Superhuman by Habit and Make It Big.
The anti bot protection that @axs uses is so bad that I buy tickets on @Gametime now, even though I'd rather just buy them direct. One or two refreshes to see if better seats showed up and I'm blocked for a long time. Related
13 January
American writer and long-term traveller. Blogs at tynan.com about travel, owning few possessions, habits and the gear he carries; author of Superhuman by Habit and Make It Big.
11 January
Programmer; wrote Redis and hping, and blogs about C, systems programming and working alone.
Don't fall into the anti-AI hype I love writing software, line by line. It could be said that my career was a continuous effort to create software well written, minimal, where the human touch was the fundamental feature. I also hope for a society where…
Related
19 December 2025
Cryptography engineer; maintains Go's cryptography libraries as a full-time open-source maintainer, funded directly by companies that use them.
Building a Transparent Keyserver We apply a transparency log to a centralized keyserver step-by-step, in less than 500 lines, with privacy protections, anti-poisoning, and witness cosigning.
Related
8 December 2025
Researcher on distributed systems and local-first software at the University of Cambridge; wrote Designing Data-Intensive Applications.
18 November 2025
Writer on learning and skill acquisition; author of Ultralearning and Get Better at Anything, known for the MIT Challenge and the Year Without English.
31 October 2025
Co-founder of Rockstar Games, lead writer of the Grand Theft Auto and Red Dead Redemption series, and founder of Absurd Ventures since leaving in 2020.
Their words
I think the power and money corrupted him in the end as well, but I also think that there’s something fundamentally anti-human about people who want to build utopias or paradises or heavens, because what they’re saying is, “I like humans apart from the bad bits.”
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youtube.com
27 October 2025
Writes Nintil, long researched essays on metascience, biology, economics and whatever he has decided to read the literature on.
22 October 2025
Writer and technology executive; blogs at anildash.com, was CEO of Glitch, and helped build Movable Type and ThinkUp.
17 October 2025
Founding member of OpenAI and former director of AI at Tesla; creator of nanoGPT and the term "vibe coding".
Their words
so a good example recently was um Jeff Hinton's prediction that radiologists would not be a job anymore and this turned out to be very wrong in a bunch of ways right so radiologists are alive and well and growing even though computer vision is really really good at recognizing all the different things that they have to recognize
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youtube.com
1 October 2025
Research scientist at Anthropic; co-creator of the Variational Autoencoder and, with Jimmy Ba, of the Adam optimizer, two of the most widely used tools in deep learning.
Think, people. Like many other technologies, AI technology has applications that are a net negative, unless well regulated. Don't support the anti-regulation lobby and don't support the people and the companies behind it. Quoting @nytopinion Mark Zuckerberg has a vision for how A.I. could be used in Meta's universe. But the actor and filmmaker Joseph Gordon-Levitt is here to point out a flaw in the technology: an apparent lack of guardrails around how the company's chatbot interacts with underage users. Related
26 September 2025
Reinforcement-learning researcher; co-wrote the field's standard textbook, wrote The Bitter Lesson, and shared the 2024 Turing Award.
Their words
If you go to look about how psychologists think about learning, there's nothing like uh imitation. Maybe there are some extreme cases where humans might do that or appear to do that, but there's no basic animal learning process called imitation.
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youtube.com
1 September 2025
Genomics researcher and writer on science, biotech and the culture of research.
20 August 2025
Mac and iOS developer; founder of Red Sweater Software (MarsEdit, FastScripts) and co-host of the Core Intuition podcast.
I got sucked into an anti-trans thread rooted in one of @jk_rowling's utterly deplorable, obsessive takes on trans people. So many people are worried about trans women seeing cis women undressing. Why aren't they equally worried about any person seeing another person undressing? Related
3 August 2025
Computer performance engineer working on datacenter performance at OpenAI, previously Netflix and Sun/Joyent. Author of Systems Performance and BPF Performance Tools, and creator of flame graphs.
Their words
One performance anti-pattern is when a company, to debug one performance problem, installs a monitoring tool that periodically does work and causes application latency outliers.
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brendangregg.com
4 July 2025
Software engineer who writes the blog Made of Bugs about performance, debugging and understanding computer systems. Previously worked at Anthropic on interpretability, at Stripe on Sorbet, and at Ksplice.
After my earlier adventures benchmarking CPython, I ended up going deep down a rabbithole on CPU branch prediction and learning a bunch of interesting things, which I have attempted to write up and share: blog.nelhage.com
Related
Software engineer who writes the blog Made of Bugs about performance, debugging and understanding computer systems. Previously worked at Anthropic on interpretability, at Stripe on Sorbet, and at Ksplice.
14 June 2025
Mathematician at UCLA, working mainly in harmonic analysis and partial differential equations. Writes What's new, a long-running blog on their research, open problems and expository notes.
Their words
There are certainly math results which could only have been accomplished because there was a human authentication and an AI involved, but it's hard to disentangle credit. I mean, these tools, they do not replicate all the skills needed to do mathematics, but they can replicate some non-trivial percentage of them, 30, 40%, so they can fill in gaps.
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youtube.com
29 May 2025
Programmer; wrote Redis and hping, and blogs about C, systems programming and working alone.
Human coders are still better than LLMs This is a short story of how humans are still so much more capable of LLMs. Note that I'm not anti-AI or alike, you know it if you know me / follow me somewhere. I use LLMs routinely, like I did today, when I want to te…
LLMs Related
20 April 2025
Genomics researcher and writer on science, biotech and the culture of research.
19 April 2025
Release engineering manager at the Wikimedia Foundation. Keeps a public log at tylercipriani.com of every book he reads, with a rating and notes.
TIL: the Federal Communication Commission's Electronic Comment Filing System (ECFS) has an API that lets you read all public comments via RSS! For example, public comments for 25-133 "In Re: Delete Delete Delete" comments: ecfsapi.fcc.gov
Related
14 April 2025
Economist at the Hoover Institution; wrote The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and blogs as The Grumpy Economist.
31 March 2025
Energy and decarbonisation analyst; publishes an annual chart deck on the state of the transition, and was chief content officer at BloombergNEF.
Tariff Stochasticity Examining how unpredictable tariff policies create chaos for energy companies, from confused utility regulators to Federal Reserve uncertainty reports hitting 55-year highs. The stochastic nature of tariffs clashes with…
energy interest rates Related
20 January 2025
President of the United States, the 45th from 2017 to 2021 and, as of 2026, the 47th; before politics a New York property developer who ran the Trump Organization, and the host of The Apprentice from 2004 to 2015.
19 January 2025
Historian at Stanford and the Hoover Institution; wrote Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative and Goddess of the Market, on Ayn Rand.
interest rates
Their words
Friedman and Schwartz becomes the playbook for the Federal Reserve. We have lived through this, the financial crisis. The Federal Reserve is ready to loan. Covid, the Federal Reserve does all kinds of new things, because no Federal Reserve chair wants to be in Friedman-Schwartz 2.0 that somebody writes, where they're the bad guy who let the economy meltdown.
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youtube.com
1 October 2024
Co-founder and CEO of Anthropic; previously VP of research at OpenAI.
19 September 2024
Medicinal chemist; has written In the Pipeline, the drug-discovery blog, since 2002, and the “Things I Won’t Work With” posts about chemicals that try to kill you.
1 September 2024
Co-founder of Y Combinator and Viaweb; essayist at paulgraham.com.
25 May 2024
Neuroscientist at UC Davis; studies memory and wrote Why We Remember.
Their words
is this idea that we form these internal models at particular points of high prediction error or points of, I believe also points of uncertainty, points of surprise or motivationally significant periods. And those points are when it’s maximally optimal to encode an episodic memory.
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youtube.com
21 May 2024
Co-founder of Microsoft and of the Gates Foundation. Writes Gates Notes on global health, energy and climate, and on whatever they have been reading.
Their words
This terrific novel tells the story of Frankie McGrath, an army nurse who serves two tours on the frontlines in Vietnam before returning home to a country rocked by protest and anti-war sentiment.
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gatesnotes.com
15 April 2024
Thai software engineer; publishes a public digital garden at garden.narze.live and builds developer and productivity tooling.
Out of context เรากำลังจะลองฝึกวาดรูป พรุ่งนี้ว่าจะไปหาซื้อดินสอกับสเก๊ตช์บุ๊คอยู่เลย 5555 วงการศิลปินอยู่ยากจริงๆ ส่วนเดฟนี่ใช้ chatgpt, copilot กันเต็มไปหมด จะมีดราม่าก็แค่เหล่า anti github/microsoft English, from Thai Out of context We're going to try practicing drawing. Tomorrow I plan to go buy pencils and a sketchbook lol. The artist world is really tough. As for Dave, he's using ChatGPT and Copilot all the time. The only drama will be from the anti-GitHub/Microsoft crowd.
Quoting @nualthedog 0. . อันดับแรกคือที่ผมไม่ได้ออกมาตอบโต้อะไรทันทีที่โดนแขวน เพราะสำหรับผมทัวร์ลงไม่ใช่เรื่องใหม่ และถ้ารีบตอบอะไรไป ก็จะโดน misquote จนกลายเป็นไฟลามทุ่งชัวร์ๆ ใครคาดหวัง entertainment จากคนทะเลาะกันก็ต้องขออภัยด้วย เรื่องมีอยู่ว่าผมไปแชร์โปสเตอร์ที่มีที่มาจากเทคโนโลยี txt to img หรือที่คนเรียกว่า AI… OpenAI Related
25 March 2024
Independent policy analyst on space and national security, formerly of the RAND Corporation, who writes on counterspace weapons and rules for keeping satellites safe.
From one piece
Preventing a “Space Pearl Harbor”: Rep. Turner leads the charge
2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
Their words
This raises public concerns that, at this late date, DoD might not have such a specification, whether classified or unclassified, even for its own internal use.
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thespacereview.com
Their words
Dual-use robotic spacecraft will soon become the anti-satellite weapon of choice for mounting this attack.
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thespacereview.com
2 January 2024
Researcher and science writer. Co-founder and editor at Works in Progress magazine, formerly a researcher at Our World in Data, and author of the Scientific Discovery newsletter on science, global health and medical innovation.
Their words
Life expectancy isn’t a prediction of how long people will live.
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scientificdiscovery.dev
29 November 2023
Development economist; argues that letting people move to rich countries does more for the poor than aid, and wrote Let Their People Come.
immigration
Their words
The thing about the far-right parties is that they are trying to get people to equate all foreigners in a country with a threat to our future, but they are only gaining ground because of their ability to generate fear.
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english.elpais.com
2 August 2023
Professor of Cognitive and Computational Neuroscience at the University of Sussex, co-director of the Sussex Centre for Consciousness Science, and author of Being You: A New Science of Consciousness.
27 February 2023
Writer living in Brooklyn and former Man Repeller features director; writes the weekly newsletter Maybe Baby on culture and consumption.
Anti-social behavior like this is not mature, polite, or cool. It actually makes everyone lonely and neurotic haleynahman.substack.com
Quoting @Codie_Sanchez As an adult, don’t ask your friends to pick you up from the airport. Use uber, save a friendship. Related
14 January 2023
Monetary economist known for NGDP-level targeting. Wrote TheMoneyIllusion until it closed in 2024 and now writes The Pursuit of Happiness.
inflation interest rates
Their words, before
The Fed needs PCE inflation to average 1.96% for the remainder of the decade in order to hit their AIT target.
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Their words now
I assumed they intended inflation to average roughly 2% during the 2020s.
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11 October 2022
Economist at the University of Houston; wrote Fully Grown, on why a slow-growing economy is a sign of success, and blogs at Growth Economics.
9 October 2022
Writer living in Brooklyn and former Man Repeller features director; writes the weekly newsletter Maybe Baby on culture and consumption.
I finally wrote my anti-astrology screed Related
24 August 2022
Machine-learning researcher on open language models; writes the Interconnects newsletter and the RLHF Book, after leading post-training at Ai2.
25 July 2022
Economics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletter.
Their words, before
If you get a check during a pandemic, you’re not going to go out and spend it at restaurants and bars, because…well, there’s a pandemic. Instead, you’re more likely to stick it in the bank, pay down debt, or pay the back rent that you owe.
Show the whole quote
Their words now
I had some theory and some evidence on my side for this prediction, and yet I ended up being very wrong about what would happen to consumption.
Show the whole quote
18 August 2021
Writer on time, productivity and limitation; wrote Four Thousand Weeks and Meditations for Mortals, and the newsletter The Imperfectionist.
15 July 2021
Co-founder and CEO of Google DeepMind, and a 2024 Nobel laureate in Chemistry for the protein-structure work behind AlphaFold.
From one piece
Highly accurate protein structure prediction with AlphaFold (with 33 co-authors)
2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
Their words
Despite these advances, contemporary physical and evolutionary-history-based approaches produce predictions that are far short of experimental accuracy in the majority of cases in which a close homologue has not been solved experimentally and this has limited their utility for many biological applications.
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doi.org
Their words
Despite recent progress10-14, existing methods fall far short of atomic accuracy, especially when no homologous structure is available.
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doi.org
20 October 2020
Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and author of The Art of Statistics.
15 June 2020
Programmer and entrepreneur; co-founded GitHub and created Jekyll, Gravatar and the Semantic Versioning spec.
America
Their words
It will take a monumental anti-racist movement to change the underlying conditions that allow racism in the United States to flourish.
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tom.preston-werner.com
14 August 2019
Financial journalist; chief financial correspondent at Axios and host of the Slate Money podcast, previously a blogger at Reuters and author of The Phoenix Economy.
5 January 2018
Environmental writer and campaigner; author of Six Degrees, The God Species, Seeds of Science and Our Final Warning.
On changing their mind
Five years ago, almost to this very day, I stood before you and offered an apology for my earlier anti-GMO activism.
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10 January 2017
Civil engineer and land use planner, founder and president of Strong Towns, author of Escaping the Housing Trap. Argues that the American pattern of development since the Second World War does not generate enough wealth to maintain the infrastructure it obliges cities to keep.
4 January 2017
Historian of the Renaissance at the University of Chicago and a science-fiction novelist; wrote Terra Ignota and Inventing the Renaissance.
1 January 2017
Programmer; builds Mac and iOS apps, wrote WatermelonDB, and writes about tools, focus and software craft.
Their words
Rough Notes. A rather dystopian prediction of the future of humanity. Can’t say I agree with it all, but definitely something to think about.
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radex.io
27 November 2013
Professor of psychology at the University of Toronto and Brooks and Suzanne Ragen Professor Emeritus at Yale. Author of Against Empathy, The Sweet Spot and Psych, and writer of the Small Potatoes newsletter.
Nothing matches. Show everything
A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one
sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at
korrents.com .
Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said.
The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in
korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who
else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public
statements, and a person can change their mind, which is recorded too.
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About the English under a post
Some people here publish in a language other than English. Where they
do, this site shows a machine translation beneath the post, in
this typeface — the site's own, not theirs.
The post itself is never changed, moved or hidden: what is set in the
serif above is exactly what the person published, and it is what to
quote them on. A translation can be wrong in ways that matter,
especially about tone.
Only the post's own words are translated. A quoted post, a linked
article and a belief on korrents.com
are left in their original language.
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