Nat Bullard
Energy and decarbonisation analyst; publishes an annual chart deck on the state of the transition, and was chief content officer at BloombergNEF.
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What they believe
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How you measure the present strongly shapes what can be extrapolated about the near future.
Extrapolating from the present day into the near future is highly dependent upon how we measure the present day.
nathanielbullard.comSaid 16 Jun 2025This on korrents
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Volatile, stop-start trade policy undermines the ability to make durable industrial investment decisions.
a juddering, jarring trade motion is not the stuff of which durable industrial decision-making is made.
nathanielbullard.comSaid 12 May 2025This on korrents
The bold line is korrents’ wording; the quote is theirs. These 2: what they wrote before what they said aloud, one per source, newest first.
Feed
As its own page →Hiding
2 November
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22 October
16 June 2025
From one piece Growth Measurements 3 beliefs · nathanielbullard.com
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Their words
there are dozens more assets like this under development right now, all deserving clarity rather than opacity.
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Their words
Shoulder generation (in late summer) of any given year is generally a higher share of global electricity demand than the peak generation (spring) of the year prior.
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korrents.com
How you measure the present strongly shapes what can be extrapolated about the near future.Their words
Extrapolating from the present day into the near future is highly dependent upon how we measure the present day.
12 May 2025
From one piece Traveler’s Tales 2 beliefs · nathanielbullard.com
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Their words
this technology, consistently underestimated, now adds more capacity to the global grid than anything ever and will soon add more power in any given year than anything ever as well.
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korrents.com
Volatile, stop-start trade policy undermines the ability to make durable industrial investment decisions.Their words
a juddering, jarring trade motion is not the stuff of which durable industrial decision-making is made.
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Their words
My data is throughout; while I do not agree with the ultimate premise, the data within its confines is indeed hard to argue with.
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Likedrcmnd.app
Investing in U.S. Infrastructure for a Decade of DemandTheir words
both are thoughtful and include a chart that is now a Logan classic: annualized US infrastructure investment needs.
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
The existential challenge for American AI dominance: powerTheir words
Disclosure: Congruent is a Halcyon investor.
21 April 2025
From one piece Programming Notes 2 beliefs · nathanielbullard.com
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korrents.com
Electrification is a process shift across industries, not just a change in energy source.Their words
Electrification is not just a change of energetic inputs; it's a process shift through and across industries.
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Their words
there is no such thing as a high-income, low-electricity economy.
31 March 2025
From one piece Tariff Stochasticity 2 beliefs · nathanielbullard.com
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Their words
But, tariffs are unavoidable, even within the ringfence that is US energy trade, and even within electricity trade more specifically.
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Their words
The short, and very much un-sweet, vision of a tariff-bound economy is that it is stochastic. We can observe it, measure it, analyze it, but we cannot really predict it.
30 January 2025
24 January 2025
9 December 2024
From one piece AI data and Theories of Change 2 beliefs · nathanielbullard.com
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Their words
Until we develop better ways to bridge this gap - aligning what analysts understand with what is formally forecast - we'll continue to see the same pattern: reality consistently outperforming conservative predictions.
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korrents.com
Understanding the future depends more on imagination and a clear theory of change than on analytical skill alone.Their words
I do not believe that analytical skills are the missing ingredient in thinking about the future. Rather, I believe that imagination about the future and a theory of change that helps to describe it clearly, are what is needed to look ahead in a more compelling way.
9 September 2024
From one piece Inflecting and Overtaking, SunPower, Waymo 2 beliefs · nathanielbullard.com
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korrents.com
Plug-in hybrids have moved past being a worst-of-both-worlds compromise and are now genuinely thriving.Their words
Neither condition is now true, but plug-in hybrids are thriving.
Inflecting and Overtaking, SunPower, Waymonathanielbullard.com
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korrents.com
Riding in a Waymo robotaxi is a better overall experience than being driven by a human driver.Their words
I found it to be a superior experience to a human driver, for a few key reasons.
Inflecting and Overtaking, SunPower, Waymonathanielbullard.com
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
LinkedIn post on what SunPower meantTheir words
I recommend reading Eric Wesoff's memoriam here and Sheldon Kimber's thoughtful note on what the company meant, and still means, here .
29 May 2024
10 May 2024
22 April 2024
18 April 2024
18 March 2024
11 March 2024
19 February 2024
Nothing matches.
Beliefs
Korrents What they believe 13 beliefs — each backed by an exact quote.
Each is a — compiled by korrents.com, not by them: the one-line wordings are korrents', the quotes are theirs.
Recent
How you measure the present strongly shapes what can be extrapolated about the near future.
Extrapolating from the present day into the near future is highly dependent upon how we measure the present day.
Growth Measurements Said 16 Jun 2025
Late-summer solar generation typically takes a larger share of global electricity demand than the prior spring's peak share.
Shoulder generation (in late summer) of any given year is generally a higher share of global electricity demand than the peak generation (spring) of the year prior.
Growth Measurements Said 16 Jun 2025
Gas power plant projects under development deserve public clarity rather than opacity.
there are dozens more assets like this under development right now, all deserving clarity rather than opacity.
Growth Measurements Said 16 Jun 2025
Show 10 more
Volatile, stop-start trade policy undermines the ability to make durable industrial investment decisions.
a juddering, jarring trade motion is not the stuff of which durable industrial decision-making is made.
Traveler’s Tales Said 12 May 2025
Solar power now adds more new capacity to the global grid each year than any technology ever has, and will soon lead in annual electricity added too.
this technology, consistently underestimated, now adds more capacity to the global grid than anything ever and will soon add more power in any given year than anything ever as well.
Traveler’s Tales Said 12 May 2025
There is no such thing as a high-income economy with low electricity consumption.
there is no such thing as a high-income, low-electricity economy.
Programming Notes Said 21 Apr 2025
Electrification is a process shift across industries, not just a change in energy source.
Electrification is not just a change of energetic inputs; it's a process shift through and across industries.
Programming Notes Said 21 Apr 2025
Tariff policy is too erratic to reliably predict or plan around.
The short, and very much un-sweet, vision of a tariff-bound economy is that it is stochastic. We can observe it, measure it, analyze it, but we cannot really predict it.
Tariff Stochasticity Said 31 Mar 2025
Tariffs reach even markets normally insulated from trade policy, like electricity.
But, tariffs are unavoidable, even within the ringfence that is US energy trade, and even within electricity trade more specifically.
Tariff Stochasticity Said 31 Mar 2025
Understanding the future depends more on imagination and a clear theory of change than on analytical skill alone.
I do not believe that analytical skills are the missing ingredient in thinking about the future. Rather, I believe that imagination about the future and a theory of change that helps to describe it clearly, are what is needed to look ahead in a more compelling way.
AI data and Theories of Change Said 9 Dec 2024
Official forecasts consistently underestimate the pace of real-world change, with reality outperforming conservative predictions.
Until we develop better ways to bridge this gap - aligning what analysts understand with what is formally forecast - we'll continue to see the same pattern: reality consistently outperforming conservative predictions.
AI data and Theories of Change Said 9 Dec 2024
Riding in a Waymo robotaxi is a better overall experience than being driven by a human driver.
I found it to be a superior experience to a human driver, for a few key reasons.
Inflecting and Overtaking, SunPower, Waymo Said 9 Sept 2024
Plug-in hybrids have moved past being a worst-of-both-worlds compromise and are now genuinely thriving.
Neither condition is now true, but plug-in hybrids are thriving.
Inflecting and Overtaking, SunPower, Waymo Said 9 Sept 2024
What is a korrent?
A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at korrents.com.
Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said. The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public statements, and a person can change their mind, which is recorded too.
Recommends rcmnd
rcmnd What they recommend 4 things — each backed by an exact quote.
Compiled by rcmnd.app, not by them: the quotes are theirs, and each links to the post it was copied from.
Recent
Recommends The existential challenge for American AI dominance: power
Disclosure: Congruent is a Halcyon investor.
nathanielbullard.com 12 May 2025
What others say about The existential challenge for American AI dominance: power →
Liked Investing in U.S. Infrastructure for a Decade of Demand
both are thoughtful and include a chart that is now a Logan classic: annualized US infrastructure investment needs.
nathanielbullard.com 12 May 2025
What others say about Investing in U.S. Infrastructure for a Decade of Demand →
Mixed on The World Is Giving Up on Climate Change (David Wallace-Wells, NYT opinion)
My data is throughout; while I do not agree with the ultimate premise, the data within its confines is indeed hard to argue with.
nathanielbullard.com 12 May 2025
What others say about The World Is Giving Up on Climate Change (David Wallace-Wells, NYT opinion) →
Show 1 more
Recommends LinkedIn post on what SunPower meant
I recommend reading Eric Wesoff's memoriam here and Sheldon Kimber's thoughtful note on what the company meant, and still means, here .
nathanielbullard.com 9 Sept 2024
What others say about LinkedIn post on what SunPower meant →
Where they publish
Blog nathanielbullard.com His writing on decarbonisation, mostly charts. Has a feed.
Recent
- Growth Measurements 16 Jun 2025 Analyzing growth patterns across decarbonization sectors - from Waymo's exponential ride growth to global solar generation trends and European gas import shifts. Exploring how we measure present-day growth to understand…
- Traveler’s Tales 12 May 2025 Travel insights from energy conferences reveal growing uncertainty in decarbonization capital deployment amid trade tensions. China's energy exports shift toward global south as electricity consumption outpaces all foss…
- Programming Notes 21 Apr 2025 Halcyon's first in-person event and expansion to all 50 US states during peak global economic uncertainty. Exploring the link between high-income economies and electricity consumption amid growing energy demand.
Show 13 more
- Tariff Stochasticity 31 Mar 2025 Examining how unpredictable tariff policies create chaos for energy companies, from confused utility regulators to Federal Reserve uncertainty reports hitting 55-year highs. The stochastic nature of tariffs clashes with…
- The Annual Presentation 30 Jan 2025 Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commod…
- On Deck 24 Jan 2025 Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commod…
- AI data and Theories of Change 9 Dec 2024 Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commod…
- Inflecting and Overtaking, SunPower, Waymo 9 Sept 2024
- Three Ways of Looking at Electricity 29 May 2024 Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commod…
- Encoding Knowledge 10 May 2024 Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commod…
- Earth Day , environmental allies, and vital tools 22 Apr 2024 Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commod…
- Halcyon 18 Apr 2024 Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commod…
- Past Futures, Futures Past 18 Mar 2024 Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commod…
- Market Narratives 11 Mar 2024 Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commod…
- Suspension of Disbelief 19 Feb 2024 Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commod…
- Welcome 31 Jan 2024 Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commod…
Link verified 20 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
x.com @NatBullard Their X account.
Recent
- Not often you see a US gas-fired power plant get its certificate of public convenience and necessity straight-up cancelled 2 Nov 2026
- I love that after many years, @jackclarkSF still ships Tech Tales every week. 2 Nov 2026
- This is what I'm enjoying about the podcast: asking an executive's technology wish list. This is Kim Greene of Georgia Power, and top of her her wishlist is "more of what @TheNuclearCo is planning to do" 30 Oct 2026
Show 17 more
- A great excerpt from @ajblum's fantastic book on the physical internet, Tubes. Which investor is he talking about, in this 2004 story? 30 Oct 2026
- A quote from my chat with @GeorgiaPower CEO Kim Greene. I asked how a new large custom contract for a data center differs from a contract for, say, an auto plant. 1. Much longer duration (old contracts might be only 3-5 years) 2. Billions of $ in collateral Much more on Nameplate 30 Oct 2026 halcyon.io
- My favorite quote from my convo with Georgia Power CEO Kim Greene: “In France they have one kind of nuclear design and a hundred kinds of cheese. In the United States, we have a hundred kinds of nuclear designs and one kind of cheese.” Nameplate: 29 Oct 2026 open.spotify.com
- My favorite quote from my convo with Georgia Power CEO Kim Greene: “In France they have one kind of nuclear design and a hundred kinds of cheese. In the United States, we have a hundred kinds of nuclear designs and one kind of cheese.” Nameplate: 29 Oct 2026 podcasts.apple.com
- I'm from Georgia*, born and raised. I've been wanting a conversation with the CEO of Georgia Power for some time, and I got it. The latest on Nameplate: Kim Greene of @GeorgiaPower. We talk hurricanes, nuclear power, apps, and cheese. *the state 29 Oct 2026 youtube.com
- New pre-approval request for a combined cycle gas plant in Oklahoma. $2,315/kW Previous two units on the same site: $738/kW $1,038/kW (@Halcyon clients got it first) 28 Oct 2026
- So this was a fun exercise in thinking about exponents. Many guesses that were way, WAY too early (Edison, Feynman etc). But exponential math is hard. It's hard to imagine that there could be so little solar (~30 GW cumulative in mid-2010, ~70GW by end-2011)...but equally hard to imagine that so much could have been installed at any point prior to then. For reference: cumulative installed global solar generation capacity in 2000: 1.22 GW. Oh and it's @ramez with the quote. I'll give his editor credit (I guess) for misspelling "minuscule" all those years ago. 27 Oct 2026
- Appreciated wisdom from @gilbert and @djrosent in the latest @AcquiredFM 27 Oct 2026
- Evening quiz: Who wrote this about solar energy, and when was it written? "If humanity could capture one tenth of one percent of the solar energy striking the earth – one part in one thousand - we would have access to six times as much energy as we consume in all forms today, with almost no greenhouse gas emissions. At the current rate of energy consumption increase – about 1 percent per year – we will not be using that much energy for another 180 years. It’s small wonder, then, that scientists and entrepreneurs alike are investing in solar energy technologies to capture some of the abundant… 27 Oct 2026
- There are 5,924 electrical substations under development in the US right now. 22 Oct 2026
- So @RichardMeyerDC was very good in his guess. There are 5,924 electrical substations in active development in the US. 22 Oct 2026
- OK friends: how many electrical substations are under development in the US? 22 Oct 2026
- I've got a new project: I interview utility CEOs on my new podcast, Nameplate. Here's a clip from Mary Kipp of @PSETalk. PSE has 6,000 square miles of territory (bigger than Connecticut), 27,000 miles of wires (enough to encircle the earth), and 1,260,000 customers. It also has wildfires. They're more intense than ever, and they're an enormous operational challenge. This is how she (and her company) address the risks through technology, from weather and climate modeling to line sensors to cameras to AI which assesses and predicts risks early. A fascinating vignette from a wide-ranging convers… 19 Oct 2026 halcyon.io
- Great market slides here (@pretentiouswhat I eagerly await year-end 2026 data or any projection you might have on coal share of power gen beyond 'less than 50%' ) 19 Oct 2026
- A clip from my conversation with Mary Kipp on wildfires in the West (and Hawaii) and how she addresses the profound risks at Puget Sound Energy. Tech, tech, tech, from the macro (weather and climate modeling) to the pinpoint (line sensors and cameras). Part of my Nameplate podcast series 19 Oct 2026 halcyon.io
- Are you reading @politico Surge, @bstorrow's excellent energy newsletter? If you're not, you should. Listening the Nameplate podcast? If you're not, you should. 17 Oct 2026
- Yes, it's Saturday morning and I'm reading the transcript of a data center site hearing in Licking County, Ohio. One testimony in its entirety: MR. ELKINS: I'm a representative for the millwrights through Central Midwest Regional Council of Carpenters. We have over 500 members who reside and work in Licking County on numerous different projects. I'm in support of this project for Will-Power 'cause it's just going to add more money and more tax dollars back into the economy, especially on the local side. Not to mention these guys would probably love to work in their backyard. Most guys like my… 17 Oct 2026
Link verified 23 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
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