Chamath Palihapitiya
Founder and CEO of Social Capital, a venture firm; co-host of the All-In podcast and an early Facebook executive. Writes an annual letter and a weekly newsletter on markets and technology.
Chamath Palihapitiya did not write this page. ppll compiled it from their own words, each linked to the source. Is this you? · Report a mistake
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What they believe
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AI is already inside the recursive self-improvement loop — what the labs have shipped in recent weeks shows the cycle has started.
Looking at the results and capabilities from the various labs over the past few weeks I would say we are firmly in this loop now.
x.comSaid 3 Aug 2026This on korrents
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Defining behavioural principles that protect against the worst parts of one's own psychology can be a winning investment strategy.
if you define certain behavioral principles that protect you from the worst parts of your own psychology, um that's a winning strategy.
youtube.comSaid 13 Oct 2020This on korrents
The bold line is korrents’ wording; the quote is theirs. These 2: what they wrote before what they said aloud, one per source, newest first.
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Beliefs
Korrents What they believe 13 beliefs — each backed by an exact quote.
Each is a — compiled by korrents.com, not by them: the one-line wordings are korrents', the quotes are theirs.
Recent
AI is already inside the recursive self-improvement loop — what the labs have shipped in recent weeks shows the cycle has started.
Looking at the results and capabilities from the various labs over the past few weeks I would say we are firmly in this loop now.
@chamath on X Said 3 Aug 2026
Recursive self-improvement will increase AI capability very quickly from here.
Recursive self improvement will dramatically increase capability very quickly from here.
@chamath on X Said 3 Aug 2026
The marginal cost of running any AI model will fall to approximately zero.
Marginal costs of all models will go to ~$0.
@chamath on X Said 3 Aug 2026
Show 10 more
Defining behavioural principles that protect against the worst parts of one's own psychology can be a winning investment strategy.
if you define certain behavioral principles that protect you from the worst parts of your own psychology, um that's a winning strategy.
Chamath Palihapitiya: Freedom, Bitcoin, and First Principles | The Knowledge Project #94 Said 13 Oct 2020
The main fight in investing is with oneself: panicking, overreacting, underreacting, refusing to observe the present, living in the past or over-believing in the future are psychological traps.
when push comes to shove, um what you're always going to be fighting is yourself. Um panicking, overreacting, underreacting, um you know, um refusing to observe the present, um living too much in the past, wanting too much to believe in the future. So, it's all psychological traps.
Chamath Palihapitiya: Freedom, Bitcoin, and First Principles | The Knowledge Project #94 Said 13 Oct 2020
Understanding oneself and turning it into written guardrails that one sticks to is an important practice.
I really think that spending time understanding yourself and then translating that into actionable guardrails that you write down and you stick to um, is a really important thing.
Chamath Palihapitiya: Freedom, Bitcoin, and First Principles | The Knowledge Project #94 Said 13 Oct 2020
When the direction of a variable such as interest rates is unknown, one can allocate to sectors that benefit either way.
what sectors of the economy will benefit irrespective of whether we go to -5 or +5? Because I don't know what the answer to that question is.
Chamath Palihapitiya: Freedom, Bitcoin, and First Principles | The Knowledge Project #94 Said 13 Oct 2020
Observing the present in a reasonably unemotional and detached way makes it possible to put a plan together.
if I can observe the present in a reasonably unemotional and detached way, to your point, I can put a plan together.
Chamath Palihapitiya: Freedom, Bitcoin, and First Principles | The Knowledge Project #94 Said 13 Oct 2020
Business school's teaching that redundancy is waste to be turned into profit and then compensation is something people have fully bought into.
Business school as an example has taught you that redundancy is waste and waste can be converted into profit and profit is converted into compensation. And I think that is what people have really drank the Kool-Aid on.
Chamath Palihapitiya: Freedom, Bitcoin, and First Principles | The Knowledge Project #94 Said 13 Oct 2020
Letting oneself be seduced by the narrative of someone with strong views and believing it fully can show its nooks and crannies, as long as one then comes back to the centre.
I allow myself to be seduced. I allow myself to sort of fall for the narrative. I allow myself to believe the totality of what that other person believes fully and completely.
Chamath Palihapitiya: Freedom, Bitcoin, and First Principles | The Knowledge Project #94 Said 13 Oct 2020
A sense of someone's integrity builds from small observations over a long period, because people reveal themselves in small ways over time.
people reveal themselves in small little ways over long periods of time. And when you can observe enough of those observations, you can pull them together to get a really good sense of integrity.
Chamath Palihapitiya: Freedom, Bitcoin, and First Principles | The Knowledge Project #94 Said 13 Oct 2020
Obvious questions to CEOs draw practised answers, so pattern recognition built on them is brittle and superficial.
I've learned that my pattern recognition before was too brittle. It was too superficial. I would ask dumb obvious questions for which any good CEO will have very good practiced answers.
Chamath Palihapitiya: Freedom, Bitcoin, and First Principles | The Knowledge Project #94 Said 13 Oct 2020
Continuing to learn means that today's views will probably look slightly immature and naive later.
if I'm evolving, I will have learned so much more that my thoughts today will seem slightly immature and naive.
Chamath Palihapitiya: Freedom, Bitcoin, and First Principles | The Knowledge Project #94 Said 13 Oct 2020
What is a korrent?
A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at korrents.com.
Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said. The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public statements, and a person can change their mind, which is recorded too.
Where they publish
Newsletter Chamath Palihapitiya Where they write: the weekly market notes and the Social Capital annual letters. Has a feed.
Weekly posts on markets, chips, energy and AI, plus the Social Capital annual letters. This is the long-form venue — the podcast is talk, this is written and signed.
Recent
- We’ve moved. 11 Sept 2026 Check out our new site!
- Anthropic Just Committed $80B in Five Days. Here Is Who It Is Renting From. 8 Sept 2026 AI’s appetite for specialized chips, power, and speed created an opening for a new kind of cloud. Learn with me below...
- A Chinese Chipmaker Raised $911M 6 Sept 2026 A summary of the interesting content that I consumed this past week
Show 17 more
- I turn 50 today... 3 Sept 2026 This is a message to my kids but I offer it to you in case any of it rings useful...
- Anthropic’s $30 Trillion Moonshot 30 Aug 2026 A summary of the interesting content that I consumed this past week
- Deep Dive: Will California Go Broke? 28 Aug 2026 California is the 5th largest economy in the world, but 43% of its own residents say the budget is a "big problem." So let’s take a closer look at the budget...
- Bitcoin’s Best Week Since 2024 23 Aug 2026 A summary of the interesting content that I consumed this past week
- Anthropic’s $6B Push to Lower AI Costs 16 Aug 2026 A summary of the interesting content that I consumed this past week
- Deep Dive: The Next Trillion-Dollar Futures Market 14 Aug 2026 AI capex hit $765B in 2026, passing oil and gas for the first time. The resource powering AI is getting its first futures contract. Here is what has to be true for it to work
- A Bitcoin Miner Switches to AI for a $4.7 Billion Lease 9 Aug 2026 A summary of the interesting content that I consumed this past week
- How Two Companies Built a $71+ Billion Drug Class 6 Aug 2026 In 2025, two drugs earned more than double the combined revenue of OpenAI and Anthropic and reached under 2% of the people who qualify. This is a deep dive on the biology, the economics, and where...
- The Leverage Inside Korea’s Memory Trade 2 Aug 2026 A summary of the interesting content that I consumed this past week
- Deep Dive: What Happens When Cars Drive Themselves 31 Jul 2026 Autonomous driving reached commercial scale in 2025. The robotaxi market alone is valued at over $11 trillion. But the bigger story is what happens to the industries built around human drivers
- Google’s biggest quarter ever 26 Jul 2026 A summary of the interesting content that I consumed this past week
- Deep Dive: How Cyberwarfare Works 22 Jul 2026 Cyberwarfare lets a small number of operators threaten systems that took decades and billions to build. The next question is how that balance changes when AI can run most of an attack at...
- Two questions every CEO should ask about AI 19 Jul 2026 A summary of the interesting content that I consumed this past week
- A quick question 14 Jul 2026 I want to further make our research and weekly publications even more useful to you. As a member of our community, could you take just 2 minutes to complete this survey...
- Microsoft Cuts 4,800 Jobs and Sells Four Studios 12 Jul 2026 A summary of the interesting content that I consumed this past week
- The New Private Asset 9 Jul 2026 Privacy tokens were delisted from exchanges 73 times in 2025, yet they became crypto's best-performing sector. Here's why.
- Meta Moves to Sell Its Excess AI Compute 5 Jul 2026 A summary of the interesting content that I consumed this past week
Link verified 7 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
x.com @chamath Short-form: market calls, AI takes, and arguments about them.
Where the shortest version of a view appears first, often days before the newsletter makes the same argument at length. Several posts from here are quoted on korrents.com.
Recent
- 1% of companies represent 90% of AI spending. Of that 90%, 80% of this spend are from unprofitable VC backed companies. So, roughly, $0.70-75 of every dollar of AI spending right now comes from AI companies spending VC investment dollars. As a result, the revenue quality in AI is currently poor. This happened in previous cycles as well, like cloud when early users of AWS were mostly venture backed startups. The thing, though, is that before AWS could scale and pull thru GCP and others as legitimate cash machines, there were a few clearing events to sort out these brittle revenues. This is the… 21 Oct 2026
- Cost per thousand ads : Cost per Acquisition Cost per Million Tokens : ??? 20 Oct 2026
- This tracks. I watch something on YouTube every day. Netflix is a dormant subscription for me. YouTube has very low costs of content creation. Netflix has $14B of debt that has financed their content library. Another lesson in the halls of mismatching assets and liabilities? Time will tell. 20 Oct 2026
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- Virginia is the Super intelligence factory capital of America. 20 Oct 2026
- This will change the desirability to live and visit this city more than most people realize... 18 Oct 2026
- #1 this week. Two weeks in a row. 17 Oct 2026
- My research team is never wrong… 16 Oct 2026
- what the hell are they going to do?!?!? holy shit... 15 Oct 2026
- I suspect 70-80% of revenues at AI companies are from other AI companies who’ve raised money from the Venture industry. This is not a circular revenue problem but it is a revenue quality problem. We’ve seen this before in the SaaS cycle in the early/mid 2010s. 15 Oct 2026
- VC investors have enabled the AI industry to bastardize revenue reporting. In the 2010s, SaaS companies popularized reporting the metric of Annual Run Rate because it was a reliable measure of long term, contractual revenues into the future. The key is that the revenues are contracted and guaranteed thru the contract life hence why forecasting it forward is appropriate. VCs have taken this to mean Annualized Run Rate when AI is concerned and where you take transactional/API revenue from the last month (or even last week in some cases) and forecast it forward. It’s insane that investors have e… 15 Oct 2026
- As I stated on the pod, it’s more critical for Ant to get public and get the $200B they need than to optimize for valuation. Find the market clearing price and go public asap. My guess, a few weeks ago, was that this price was +/- $1T. I’m still of this mindset and haven’t changed my mind. 14 Oct 2026
- Learn the past to rewrite the future… 14 Oct 2026
- I stand by these statements: “Everybody's going to have to get into the land power shell game and get your own electricity, and everybody's going to have to solve this. I actually think every company should probably break the seal and understand the energy shortage and think about buying LPS themselves. I do not think you're going to be able to rely on the clouds.” 13 Oct 2026
- Answer the call. If you are technical and want to help America then @USTechForce may be for you… 13 Oct 2026
- Model Benchmarks Are Worthless How can a model score 24% and 59% on the same 113 coding tasks? It happens when you vary the harness that wraps it. I’ve increasingly ignored most of the recent model leaderboard results. Partly from exhaustion and partly because improvements in a ranking don’t show up in the actual work. So I asked the 8090 Labs team to measure what the leaderboards skip: the model and the harness together, on real bug fixes and features from open-source projects. 8090 Labs ran 7 models through 5 harnesses. Here are a few results I didn't expect: - Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1… 12 Oct 2026 8090.ai
- You should expect the silicon chip companies to move up the stack as the application companies move down the stack. In AI, it is increasingly true that everyone competes with everyone. Everyone will soon offer their own LPS, silicon, cloud and applications. The question is what will the constraint be that you can build a long term market and margins around… Is it distribution? Is it a data moat? Is it a physical constraint like power? 12 Oct 2026
- #2 in the country. 🫡 11 Oct 2026
- These are some very important observations from Satya. As models and harnesses commoditize, intent, verification and evidence will gate how quickly SI permeates enterprises and businesses. Importantly, you need to implement systems that separate who does the work from those who govern, measure and sign off on it. This is a new kind of “harness” that will emerge over the next few years. It may become a new system of record over time. One whose entire role is to track “change” and map it back to SOPs, policies, laws and the like. 10 Oct 2026
- Strong debut - I had not heard of her until a few days ago. Her debate vs Letitia James was impressive. She mopped the floor with her. 10 Oct 2026
- I was so disturbed by the damage of the wildfires in California that I helped get a new company off the ground to simplify wildfire resilience, layer by layer. Please try Strata. It starts with a simple assessment and then a remediation plan to do everything you can to protect your home. It won’t solve for your politicians’ incompetence but will allow you to address what’s in your control. 9 Oct 2026 stratafire.com
Link verified 7 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
Podcast All-In The show they co-host, weekly, with three others. Has a feed.
A weekly roundtable on markets, technology and politics with Jason Calacanis, David Sacks and David Friedberg. Four hosts, so an episode is not all their voice — but it is their own show and they are named in its title.
Recent
- Arvind Krishna & Nikesh Arora: Quantum Threat, Open vs Frontier AI, AI Cyber Warfare & SaaS Collapse 21 Oct 2026
- Dylan Field: Is AI Replacing Designers?, Design is the New Code & Democratizing Creativity 19 Oct 2026
- CoreWeave Crash, AI Trade Cracks, Anthropic IPO Red Flags, Bill Gates Doomer 17 Oct 2026
Show 17 more
- Elizabeth Holmes' Husband Billy Evans: The Trial, Prison & Nathan Fielder's Documentary 15 Oct 2026
- Martin Shkreli: Big Pharma's Blind Spot, Betting Against Quantum & What Prison Taught Him 12 Oct 2026
- Is Claude Conscious? Pope Rejects, Model Welfare Movement, OpenAI's Math Backlash, France Riots 10 Oct 2026
- Trump's Super Intelligence Summit, AI Safety Accord, GDP Beats, Midterm Predictions 2 Oct 2026
- Jake Paul & The Chainsmokers: Turning Fame into Funds, Jake Enters Politics? & Venture Bubble Signs 30 Sept 2026
- Daniel Ek: Life After Spotify, Broken Healthcare Incentives, Catching Disease Early & AI's Potential 28 Sept 2026
- Anthropic IPO at Risk, Meta's Muse Pop, Token Prices Fall, Open Source Gains Share, Alignment Fails 26 Sept 2026
- Luca Ferrari, Bending Spoons CEO: The $40K Origin Story, Buying Product-Market Fit & Why Private Equity Can't Compete 23 Sept 2026
- Steve Hilton & Spencer Pratt: Fixing California, Cheaper Gas, Ballot Fraud & CA Republicans 23 Sept 2026
- Blake Scholl: Why Plane Speed Stalled, Supersonic Commercial Flight, & Revolutionizing the Engine 22 Sept 2026
- Naveen Rao: 4D Computing, AI's Energy Wall & Beating Biology 21 Sept 2026
- Adam Foroughi, Applovin CEO: Surviving a 92% Drawdown, Ads as ML 1.0 & the $50B Game Ad Market 20 Sept 2026
- Bill Gurley: Searching for Feynman 19 Sept 2026
- Jared Isaacman: A New Era for NASA and American Space Exploration 18 Sept 2026
- Nick Shirley: Exposing Government Fraud, Suing California & Taking on the Media 18 Sept 2026
- Meta's Dina Powell McCormick: The Case for Data Centers, Backlash, AI Job Boom & Meta's Future 17 Sept 2026
- Brad Gerstner: No AI Bubble, Semis Eat the Nasdaq & AI's Take Off Problem 17 Sept 2026
Link verified 7 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
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Some people here publish in a language other than English. Where they do, this site shows a machine translation beneath the post, in this typeface — the site's own, not theirs.
The post itself is never changed, moved or hidden: what is set in the serif above is exactly what the person published, and it is what to quote them on. A translation can be wrong in ways that matter, especially about tone.
Only the post's own words are translated. A quoted post, a linked article and a belief on korrents.com are left in their original language.