ppll

Patrick Collison

Co-founder and CEO of Stripe and co-founder of the Arc Institute. Keeps a personal site of reading lists, open questions and notes on scientific progress and how research is funded.

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What they believe

The bold line is korrents’ wording; the quote is theirs. These 2: what they wrote before what they said aloud, one per source, newest first.

All 43 beliefs, on korrents

Everything, newest first — across every channel.

Sources

15 October

Patrick Collisonx.com
  • infrastructure

  • infrastructure

+ 1 more

13 October

Patrick Collisonx.com
  • startups

  • worksinprogress.co

    design

11 October

9 October

Patrick CollisonKorrents

From one piece @patrickc on X 14 beliefs · x.com

+ 11 more

6 October

Patrick Collisonx.com
  • ChinaAmerica

1 October

Patrick Collisonx.com
  • forms.gle

30 September

Patrick Collisonx.com

29 September

Patrick Collisonx.com

28 September

Patrick Collisonx.com

25 September

The whole feed →

Beliefs

  • Korrents What they believe 43 beliefs — each backed by an exact quote.

    Each is a — compiled by korrents.com, not by them: the one-line wordings are korrents', the quotes are theirs.

    Recent

    • If agents reward product quality, information about product quality will become more important and impactful.
      It true, a corollary is that information about product quality will become more important and impactful.

      @patrickc on X Said 9 Oct 2026

      Full record — everyone who holds this →

    • Companies are, in some sense, the original superintelligence.
      Companies are in some sense the original superintelligence.

      @patrickc on X Said 9 Oct 2026

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      AI alignment

    • Companies often use their cognitive surplus to advance their interests against those of some consumers.
      It's often the case that they can use their amortized cognitive surplus to advance their interests against those of certain consumers: relative to the optimization capacity of companies, consumers can be inattentive, underinformed, irrational, etc.

      @patrickc on X Said 9 Oct 2026

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    Show 40 more
    • Personal agents will probably make people somewhat more rational in how they deal with companies.
      Thanks to personal agents, we will probably get somewhat more rational in how we engage with companies.

      @patrickc on X Said 9 Oct 2026

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    • Personal agents will make certain kinds of price discrimination and customer cross-subsidy work less well.
      Well, certain kinds of price discrimination will work less well (how do coupons work if every agent hunts fastidiously for them?), and certain kinds of customer cross-subsidy will change (today, people who forget to cancel subscriptions subsidize those who don't).

      @patrickc on X Said 9 Oct 2026

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    • Personal agents will act as a kind of structural subsidy for product quality.
      Personal agents will, I think, act as a kind of structural subsidy for product quality.

      @patrickc on X Said 9 Oct 2026

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    • Focusing on making a product better is going to become a more effective strategy for companies.
      On the margin, focusing on making a product better is, I think, going to become a more effective strategy for companies. This is good!

      @patrickc on X Said 9 Oct 2026

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    • Agents will have an insatiable thirst for signals about product quality, which most people today cannot aggregate.
      Today, most people have very limited ability to aggregate and integrate such data, but agents will have insatiable thirst for such signals.

      @patrickc on X Said 9 Oct 2026

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    • Data is becoming more valuable not only for training models but as a complement to cheaper intelligence.
      It's often said that data is becoming more valuable because it helps in the training of models. That's obviously true, but I think there's a secondary way in which it's more valuable simply as a complement to cheaper intelligence.

      @patrickc on X Said 9 Oct 2026

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    • Internet companies' monetized demand routing has created inefficiency; it is not all deadweight loss, but it is not great.
      This has led to some amount of inefficiency, as companies try to propitiate capricious ranking algorithms and incur various placement fees. It's not all deadweight loss (willingness to pay is itself a kind of signal, which is valuable to buyers), but it's not great.

      @patrickc on X Said 9 Oct 2026

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    • Personal agents might change how internet demand routing works, and its value, by a lot.
      How will the nature and value of this routing change in a world of personal agents? I don't know the answer, but I think that the effects might be pretty big.

      @patrickc on X Said 9 Oct 2026

      Full record — everyone who holds this →

    • Being on the consumer's side will likely be the winning strategy for personal agents.
      Much of what I'm writing hinges on the assumption that personal agents will be on the consumer's side. I suspect that that will be the winning strategy, but whether it's true, and what it means to be true, involves a lot of other questions.

      @patrickc on X Said 9 Oct 2026

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    • The market is a massively parallelized, decentralized and highly imperfect value-attribution machine.
      Taken as a whole, the market is a massively parallelized, decentralized, and highly imperfect value attribution machine

      @patrickc on X Said 9 Oct 2026

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    • The biggest effect of agents on the market may well be that the rewards for better products increase.
      taking stock of all of the effects, it seems to me that the quality point may well be the biggest: that agents will change the nature of the backpropagation such that the rewards for better products increase. Maybe this is too optimistic, but I suspect (and hope) that companies that make things that they're proud of will feel that the universe is a little more partisan in their favor.

      @patrickc on X Said 9 Oct 2026

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      optimismpolitics

    • Figures across many countries in a certain historical period seem to have been solemnly concerned with the character of their nation.
      I'm often struck by how figures in this period across many countries seem solemnly concerned with the character of the nation.

      @patrickc on X Said 25 Sept 2026

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    • A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls.
      consuming its publications is so easy for the models (the world's knowledge is neatly serried in their pretraining corpora) and so cumbersome for most humans (with trenches of CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls ensuring that only the unusually dedicated reader will ever make contact)

      @patrickc on X Said 17 Sept 2026

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    • Architects oppose the kinds of buildings that most people like.
      Architects oppose the kinds of buildings that most people like.

      @patrickc on X Said 11 Sept 2026

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    • The OpenAI-Hugging Face attack is one of the most important things to happen this year, and has gone strikingly under-covered.
      Overall, I’m very surprised at how little media coverage there’s been around the OpenAI / Hugging Face attack. It’s clearly one of the most important things to happen this year.

      @patrickc on X Said 30 Aug 2026

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      OpenAIHuggingFace

    • The difficulty of incorporating a company in Germany is understated rather than exaggerated, and it pushes founders to incorporate elsewhere.
      Met a German founder this week and asked him if all the stories one reads about the challenges of startups in Germany are exaggerated. "No, they're understated." Proceeded to describe spending a full day having a 90-page investment contract read to him (mandatory under German law; § 13 BeurkG) by a notary that then charged €30,000. That was for his first company. His second company, needless to say, was not incorporated in Germany.

      @patrickc on X Said 29 Aug 2026

      Full record — everyone who holds this →

      startups

    • Knowing something yourself will stay faster than asking a model for it, because a lookup in your own head beats a round trip to an agent.
      That's a hell of a lot slower than knowing it in cognitive L1 cache. And you can have way more round trips in your brain than you can, you know, muttering through, you know, super whisper or typing it out or whatever.

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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    • Renouncing your own cognitive ability because the models are good is premature, because companies still pay an enormous premium for it.
      there still seems to be an enormous premium on cognitive ability. And so, I wouldn't I I I I think, um, renouncing that before there's evidence that we've saturated, uh, those benefits would be premature.

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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    • Models can prove monumental theorems and still have never written an essay worth reading.
      I mean, it's very interesting, right? Because these can prove the Jacobian conjecture, you know, whatever. Uh and so clearly they're capable of these monumental feats. Um but somehow I still haven't read the LLM essay that I found super compelling.

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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      LLMs

    • Dropping out of college is not a trapdoor and the reputational cost is nil: as far as anyone can tell, nobody has ever cared.
      You know, I think a lot of parents think that dropping out is very risky and impune your reputation for the rest of your life and so forth. And as far as I can tell, nobody has ever cared.

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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    • Startup opportunities are not fleeting; Silicon Valley has reliably had a surfeit of them for decades.
      You know, in hindsight, I think that um that was a a poor intuition. Uh it's been pretty robustly and reliably the case over many decades in Silicon Valley has a surfeit of opportunities.

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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      startupsSilicon Valley

    • This is not the last moment to start a company, and the belief that the window is about to close is a recurring millenarian instinct.
      I mean, obviously aviation was was a pretty big deal, but uh I I I don't think it was sort of quite the um the sociological rewriting that some of the you know excitable proponents at the time imagined. So I am you know it's it's hard to predict anything especially the future but I would I would take the under on this being the last couple of years to get a company going.

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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      aviation

    • Build on a customer problem somebody viscerally feels and would pay to fix, because it is very easy to imagine one that nobody does.
      something we learned from YC uh was that the importance of focusing on very concrete easy to explain customer problems. Like it's it's very easy to to hallucinate or to you know imagine some customer problem that's not actually something viscerally felt by a person who would pay money.

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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    • An idea can be obviously good and obviously ridiculous at the same time; being grounded in a real user problem is what carries it through.
      So, anyway, I'd say it like it both seemed like an obviously good idea in that people really wanted this, but also a bad idea in that nobody took it seriously. Um but I I think that I think the fact that it was ultimately the fact that it was grounded in such a concrete actual real user problem saved us.

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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    • Some domains cannot be launched into early: where security, partners and money movement are preconditions, you have to build first.
      Um in our domain, to answer your last question, because we had to do so much stuff around security and partners and money movement and infrastructure and reliability and you know, all the things. We just we didn't feel like we could scale a really good self-serve experience without getting a lot of the kind of the preconditions um and the infrastructure in place.

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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      infrastructure

    • Weekly contact with paying users is what the launch-early rule is really for: it means learning from reality instead of your own extrapolated conception of it.
      And so, every, you know, every week, we had actual customer feedback, requests, new users coming in. We're learning things from reality as opposed to our own kind of hypothesized or extrapolated conception of it.

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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    • The lean startup was almost the only option twenty years ago; with AI you can start something far more aggressive and ambitious up front.
      So, I um yeah, I think maybe maybe a better way of saying it is 20 20 years ago that whole lean startup thing was uh was almost the only thing to do because of capital available and you didn't have AI that made, I don't know, spinning up an organization with many different potentialities and capabilities so much easier, whereas now I think you can start these much more aggressive and ambitious things up front.

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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      startups

    • Many of the most successful companies of the last decade were built against the lean startup playbook, not with it.
      many of the companies that were most successful over the last 10 years, so many of them are are very anti-lean startup, right? Uh whether it's, you know, the labs themselves or Anduril or um yeah, you you you you can go down the list. A lot of them have this characteristic.

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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      startups

    • Before you raise money, ask what happens if you succeed - whether you will still want this company in ten or thirty years.
      I think you need to ask the uh, the sort of converse of that, uh, what if you succeed? And you know, you raise money and you've customers and you've employees and a whole thing. Like are you going to be are you going to enjoy that? Are you going to want to work on that for 10 years, for 17 years, for 30 years?

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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    • The schleps of building a payments company were repaid, because no Stripe customer has ever turned out to be boring.
      But yeah, just like it's it's I've never met a Stripe customer and thought that's boring. Um so so it's actually the business as a whole has been the opposite of uh of the Schlep Blindness um instinct.

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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    • The fear that a big lab will simply build your product is overstated, because no organisation can aggressively prosecute a hundred priorities at once.
      And just human organizations are complicated and it's very hard to have um to manage to aggressively prosecute 100 different priorities and to deal with all the issues and interference that arises among them and so forth. And so, you know, Google has done incredibly well in a bunch of specific places, but it's not like Google has done all the things even if in some kind of basic material sense, uh Google maybe, you know, had that ability.

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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      Google

    • New businesses are being started at close to twice last year's rate, the largest relative jump Stripe has ever recorded.
      Um, as I speak, the number of new businesses starting on Stripe is up around a bit under, but around 2x year-over-year, um, which again is the largest relative jump, uh, we've seen.

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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    • The new wave of businesses is not lightweight slop: the median one is doing better than a year ago, and more of them clear every revenue threshold.
      Um, but actually the median business, uh, is doing better this year than a year ago. Um, and so and then if we kind of, um, stratify and look at the probability that any given business will reach some revenue threshold, a million dollars, five million dollars, 10 million dollars, whatever, um, those all seem to be getting better.

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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    • By every objective metric Stripe can see, there has never been a better time to start a business.
      Uh, business are uh, the time to revenue for new companies incorporated with Atlas is declining. And so, by all the kind of objective metrics we can look at, uh, it seems to be a better time than ever to start a business.

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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    • Enterprises buy from startups now because the risk of keeping the status quo has come to look larger than the risk of the startup.
      But now, people know that, well, the risk of the status quo is actually extremely high. And so, even if there's risk in doing all the new things, well, this path also looks pretty dangerous. And so, I really think there's never been a better time for startups to to sell um and to have their products get adopted at, you know, pretty meaningful scale right out of the gate.

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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      startups

    • AI will not centralise the economy into a handful of companies; there are going to be many thousands of winners.
      But based on what we can see at Stripe, the hunger and the intensity with which other companies are either getting started, taking advantage of these new capabilities, or existing companies are retooling, I don't worry about the centralization in the same way. Uh I think there I think there are going to be many thousands of winners.

      Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? Said 31 Jul 2026

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    • The cognitive costs of air pollution are almost certainly still significantly under-emphasised -- most EPA materials do not mention them at all.
      Air pollution is a very big deal. Its adverse effects on numerous health outcomes and general mortality are widely documented. However, our understanding of its cognitive costs is more recent and those costs are almost certainly still significantly under-emphasized. For example, cognitive effects are not mentioned in most EPA materials.

      Pollution by 18 Nov 2019

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    • Returns to effort do not visibly diminish; the binding constraint is how much hard work you actually enjoy, not where the curve flattens.
      To the extent that you enjoy working hard, do. Subject to that constraint, it's not clear that the returns to effort ever diminish substantially.

      Advice by 5 Jul 2018

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    • A large fraction of what the people around you believe is mistaken, and nobody is going to teach you to think for yourself.
      More broadly, nobody is going to teach you to think for yourself. A large fraction of what people around you believe is mistaken. Internalize this and practice coming up with your own worldview.

      Advice by 5 Jul 2018

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    • Great work is usually done far younger than its fame suggests: people were grey-haired when they became famous, not when they did the work.
      People who did great things often did so at very surprisingly young ages. (They were grayhaired when they became famous... not when they did the work.)

      Advice by 5 Jul 2018

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    Beliefs others hold too

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