Scott Sumner
Monetary economist known for NGDP-level targeting. Wrote TheMoneyIllusion until it closed in 2024 and now writes The Pursuit of Happiness.
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What they believe
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Market prices, used appropriately, are the best available way to evaluate the likelihood of future outcomes.
I do believe that market prices, used appropriately, are the best way of evaluating the likelihood of various future outcomes.
scottsumner.substack.comSaid 23 Sept 2026This on korrents
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Changed their mind The Federal Reserve's average inflation targeting framework is a real commitment to hold inflation near a 2% average across the 2020s, so an overshoot now has to be offset by undershoots later.
Before The Fed needs PCE inflation to average 1.96% for the remainder of the decade in order to hit their AIT target.
Now I assumed they intended inflation to average roughly 2% during the 2020s.
Said 14 Jan 2023This on korrents
The bold line is korrents’ wording; the quote is theirs. These one: what they wrote before what they said aloud, one per source, newest first.
Feed
As its own page →Hiding
8 October
5 October
1 October
28 September
23 September
From one piece Wanna bet? 3 beliefs · scottsumner.substack.com
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Their words
I do believe that most tech people overestimate the risk of mass job loss from AI, but that's because economics is one area where I feel I do have some expertise.
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Their words
Nonetheless, I suspect that in the long run the cost/benefit calculation for AI tends to favor the poor.
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korrents.com
Market prices, used appropriately, are the best available way to evaluate the likelihood of future outcomes.Their words
I do believe that market prices, used appropriately, are the best way of evaluating the likelihood of various future outcomes.
18 September
From one piece Adam Smith’s greatest insight? 3 beliefs · scottsumner.substack.com
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Their words
Smith would probably be able to explain to our foreign policy establishment why Russia's economy continued to do well after "draconian" sanctions were imposed in early 2022, and why economic sanctions almost never achieve their policy goals.
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korrents.com
People systematically overestimate how much any single economic shock affects the macroeconomy.Their words
That's not to say that real shocks never matter-Covid certainly had an impact on the economy-rather that people tend to overestimate the impact of any given shock.
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korrents.com
Draconian price controls are among the most ruinous economic policies a government can impose.Their words
Draconian price controls are among the most ruinous of all economic policies.
14 September
From one piece Don't mix fiscal and monetary policy 3 beliefs · scottsumner.substack.com
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Their words
First, the public hates inflation, much more than they hate taxes.
Don't mix fiscal and monetary policyscottsumner.substack.com
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korrents.com
Under a 2% inflation-targeting regime, monetary policy carries no meaningful fiscal implications.Their words
But under a 2% inflation targeting regime, it is not worth thinking about the fiscal implications of monetary policy-it's just not that important.
Don't mix fiscal and monetary policyscottsumner.substack.com
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korrents.com
The real interest rate in the long run is determined by market forces, not by monetary policy.Their words
In fact, the real interest rate is almost entirely determined by market forces in the long run, not by monetary policy.
Don't mix fiscal and monetary policyscottsumner.substack.com
10 September
From one piece A cheesehead’s view of the world 3 beliefs · scottsumner.substack.com
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Their words
I suspect that Wright is under-appreciated because architectural critics prefer urbanism to Wright's suburban approach.
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korrents.com
The left/right framework is inadequate for understanding the political culture of places like Wisconsin or Sweden.Their words
The key to understanding places like Wisconsin (or Sweden) is to look past the outdated left/right approach to political ideology.
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Their words
In other posts, I've argued that the distinguishing feature of utilitarianism is the idea that every person's welfare is equally important.
7 September
1 September
28 August
24 August
20 August
16 August
11 August
Nothing matches.
Beliefs
Korrents What they believe 12 beliefs, 4 changed minds — each backed by an exact quote.
Each is a — compiled by korrents.com, not by them: the one-line wordings are korrents', the quotes are theirs.
Recent
Market prices, used appropriately, are the best available way to evaluate the likelihood of future outcomes.
I do believe that market prices, used appropriately, are the best way of evaluating the likelihood of various future outcomes.
Wanna bet? Said 23 Sept 2026
AI's long-run cost/benefit balance favors poorer people more than richer ones.
Nonetheless, I suspect that in the long run the cost/benefit calculation for AI tends to favor the poor.
Wanna bet? Said 23 Sept 2026
Tech people tend to overestimate the risk of mass job loss from AI.
I do believe that most tech people overestimate the risk of mass job loss from AI, but that's because economics is one area where I feel I do have some expertise.
Wanna bet? Said 23 Sept 2026
Show 9 more
Draconian price controls are among the most ruinous economic policies a government can impose.
Draconian price controls are among the most ruinous of all economic policies.
Adam Smith’s greatest insight? Said 18 Sept 2026
People systematically overestimate how much any single economic shock affects the macroeconomy.
That's not to say that real shocks never matter-Covid certainly had an impact on the economy-rather that people tend to overestimate the impact of any given shock.
Adam Smith’s greatest insight? Said 18 Sept 2026
Economic sanctions almost never achieve the policy goals they are intended to achieve.
Smith would probably be able to explain to our foreign policy establishment why Russia's economy continued to do well after "draconian" sanctions were imposed in early 2022, and why economic sanctions almost never achieve their policy goals.
Adam Smith’s greatest insight? Said 18 Sept 2026
The real interest rate in the long run is determined by market forces, not by monetary policy.
In fact, the real interest rate is almost entirely determined by market forces in the long run, not by monetary policy.
Don't mix fiscal and monetary policy Said 14 Sept 2026
Under a 2% inflation-targeting regime, monetary policy carries no meaningful fiscal implications.
But under a 2% inflation targeting regime, it is not worth thinking about the fiscal implications of monetary policy-it's just not that important.
Don't mix fiscal and monetary policy Said 14 Sept 2026
The public dislikes inflation more than it dislikes taxes.
First, the public hates inflation, much more than they hate taxes.
Don't mix fiscal and monetary policy Said 14 Sept 2026
Utilitarianism is defined by treating every person's welfare as equally important.
In other posts, I've argued that the distinguishing feature of utilitarianism is the idea that every person's welfare is equally important.
A cheesehead’s view of the world Said 10 Sept 2026
The left/right framework is inadequate for understanding the political culture of places like Wisconsin or Sweden.
The key to understanding places like Wisconsin (or Sweden) is to look past the outdated left/right approach to political ideology.
A cheesehead’s view of the world Said 10 Sept 2026
Architectural critics' preference for urbanism over suburban design has caused Frank Lloyd Wright's work to be under-appreciated.
I suspect that Wright is under-appreciated because architectural critics prefer urbanism to Wright's suburban approach.
A cheesehead’s view of the world Said 10 Sept 2026
What is a korrent?
A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at korrents.com.
Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said. The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public statements, and a person can change their mind, which is recorded too.
Recommends rcmnd
rcmnd What they recommend 19 things — each backed by an exact quote.
Compiled by rcmnd.app, not by them: the quotes are theirs, and each links to the post it was copied from.
Recent
Liked Clouds of Sils Maria
Clouds of Sils Maria (Swiss/French, 2014, CC) 3.5 Very good acting and good enough screenplay (even if some of the themes seem a bit warmed over.)
themoneyillusion.com 3 Jul 2024
Liked Dry Summer
Dry Summer (Turkey, 1964, CC) 3.5 I wasn’t sure I wanted to see a 50-year old Turkish film about farmers fighting over water rights. I did. There’s a reason Scorsese put this surprisingly entertaining film on his global cinema list.
themoneyillusion.com 3 Jul 2024
Liked You Were Like a Wild Chrysanthemum
You Were Like a Wild Chrysanthemum (Japan, 1955, CC) 3.5 Chishu Ryu is one of my favorite actors, but he has a fairly small role. Very nice cinematography. Recommended for fans of nostalgia.
themoneyillusion.com 3 Jul 2024
Show 16 more
Liked State and Main
State and Main (US, 2000, CC) 3.6 Not quite top level Mamet, but consistently entertaining and full of great actors. Rebecca Pidgeon is especially outstanding, overshadowing even the great Philip Hoffman.
themoneyillusion.com 3 Jul 2024
Liked Beyond the Visible: Hilma af Klint
Beyond the Visible: Hilma af Klint (Germany, 2019, CC) 3.6 When thinking about the most overlooked female artist, Artemesia Gentileschi often comes to mind. This documentary makes a persuasive case for Hilma af Klint. To my eyes, her most appealing works are not the large scale abstractions, rather it’s the small Klee-like gems that stand out. Don’t assume that if you have seen a half dozen of her most famous works that you have any conception of her overall career.
themoneyillusion.com 3 Jul 2024
Loved Identification of a Woman
Identification of a Woman (Italy, 1982, CC) 3.8 Critics often point out various flaws in Antonioni films, but I’d rather focus what he does so well. He’s one of those directors that appeal to serious film buffs because the visuals are so brilliantly constructed. (Tarkovsky, Ozu, Kairostami, Hou Hsiao-hsien, and Wes Anderson are some other examples.)
themoneyillusion.com 3 Jul 2024
Disliked Challengers
Challengers (US) 2.6 Drove 30 minutes to the theater. Sat through 15 minutes of commercials and 15 more of loud in-your-face trailers. Then within 60 seconds I knew I had picked the wrong film. Unpleasant characters, phony “Hollywood” dialogue and a really annoying musical soundtrack.
themoneyillusion.com 3 Jul 2024
Mixed on Coup de Chance
Coup de Chance (France) 3.0 Full of tastefully done scenes filmed by Vittorio Storaro, but somewhat inert and lifeless. For a major director, Woody Allen has surprisingly little feel for the art of cinema—a fact that is usually covered up by his clever dialogue. Working in French he seems out of his comfort zone (or is it the subtitles?) The dialogue seems less sharp, more predictable.
themoneyillusion.com 3 Jul 2024
Mixed on The Broken Ice
The Broken Ice (China) 3.2 A few decades ago, I would have been more impressed by this film, which is roughly in the style of Jia Zhangke. Now it seems a bit derivative.
themoneyillusion.com 3 Jul 2024
Liked Falling Leaves
Falling Leaves (Finland) 3.4 A characteristic Kaurismaki film. Like Wes Anderson, his films have a certain look and a sly sense of humor. Like Ozu, he makes the same film over and over again.
themoneyillusion.com 3 Jul 2024
Mixed on Hit Man
Hit Man (US) 3.5 Highly entertaining due to its killer plot. So why not a higher rating? I was disappointed that Linklater did so little with the plot—much of the execution (not all) is fairly bland. Where’s the style? As a comedy, it’s only OK. As film noir, it’s nowhere near as intense as Body Heat. It’s sort of Soderbergh-lite. And yet more people will like this one than any other film on my list, because of the great plot.
themoneyillusion.com 3 Jul 2024
Liked The Thief Collector
The Thief Collector (US) 3.6 This documentary on a pair of art thieves is extremely enjoyable, despite a somewhat clumsy execution in places. Surprising revelations keep popping up throughout its 100-minute running time.
themoneyillusion.com 3 Jul 2024
Loved Evil Does Not Exist
Evil Does Not Exist (Japan) 3.7 This is turning out to be an outstanding year for Japanese films. As is so often the case with films from Asia, it begs to be seen on the big screen. Hard to summarize—imagine if Apichatpong Weerasethakul had directed Local Hero. Warning—his films always start slow, and build to a strong second half.
themoneyillusion.com 3 Jul 2024
Loved About Dry Grasses
About Dry Grasses (Turkey, CC) 3.9 This is my favorite film directed by Ceylan, and that’s high praise. At times it feels like a long Russian novel. Engrossing from beginning to end, despite its 3¼ hour length. This one also could have been entitled “Evil Does Not Exist”.
themoneyillusion.com 3 Jul 2024
Loved My Struggle
It was the first book I ever read that had the feel of life as I experience it.
econlib.org 25 Dec 2019
Loved The Rings of Saturn
Its quasi-documentary style was increasingly in fashion at the time.
econlib.org 25 Dec 2019
Loved Tales of Land and Sea
It contains his best novellas, which I regard as his very best work.
econlib.org 25 Dec 2019
Loved Labyrinths
I was most influenced by the essays in the book, and I ended up being attracted to the same sort of writers as Borges, mostly Anglo-American writers of 1820-1920.
econlib.org 25 Dec 2019
Liked The Tales of Edgar Allen Poe
I read this as a child, and liked it for the same reason that other young people like reading Poe.
econlib.org 25 Dec 2019
Where they publish
Blog TheMoneyIllusion The blog the NGDP-targeting argument was made on. Closed in 2024; the archive stands.
The blog where the case for NGDP-level targeting was argued post by post through the financial crisis and after. It stopped in September 2024 and the archive is left up; the writing moved to Substack.
Link verified 1 Sept 2026.
Newsletter The Pursuit of Happiness Where they write now, since TheMoneyIllusion ended. Has a feed.
Monetary economics, and a deliberately wider range than the old blog — film, history, travel and philosophy alongside the NGDP arguments. Started when TheMoneyIllusion closed in 2024; posts most weeks and has a feed.
Recent
- Restoring the reputation of monetarism 8 Oct 2026 Theories are more useful if they appear to be true
- Some of the best ideas are wrong 5 Oct 2026 How flawed models can be useful
- Films of 2026: Q3 1 Oct 2026 And a few TV and book recommendations
Show 17 more
- September 2026 links 28 Sept 2026
- Wanna bet? 23 Sept 2026 And do we even have a choice?
- Adam Smith’s greatest insight? 18 Sept 2026 The Wealth of Nations at 250
- Don't mix fiscal and monetary policy 14 Sept 2026 They are very different policy tools
- A cheesehead’s view of the world 10 Sept 2026 Am I a regional thinker?
- It's the fun 7 Sept 2026 Collapsing fertility in four easy steps
- What is an undervalued currency? 1 Sept 2026 Focus on fundamentals, not gimmicks
- August 2026 links 28 Aug 2026 Plus brief thoughts on Jackson Hole
- Say’s Law in China 24 Aug 2026 Why China needs to produce much more output
- On the bigness of China 20 Aug 2026 How international borders distort our thinking
- Our monetary Rube Goldberg device 16 Aug 2026 Endogenous money isn't what you think it is
- John Cochrane on monetarism 11 Aug 2026 Plus a pushback against AI's unhealthy obsession with fiscal policy
- Basil Halperin on sticky wage models 7 Aug 2026 Why wage inflation is what matters
- Thoughts on inflation and monetary policy 3 Aug 2026 Be careful what you ask for
- July 2026 links 29 Jul 2026 Plus another reply to Fable
- Not just a cheap date 24 Jul 2026 Fable is more like a high end escort
- Fable responds 21 Jul 2026 My conversation with Fable (and hence the profession) continues
Link verified 1 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
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