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korrents.com
Expecting a layoff in advance provides little psychological protection against its effects.Their words
Being mentally prepared didn't provide much protection. The effects of job loss looked remarkably similar.
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The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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20 September
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Their words
My general view on a partner with a challenging quality is that to make peace with it, two things need to be true: 1. They have enough wonderful qualities you value to compensate for it, and 2. They don't make you feel alone or lonely in dealing with the runoff of said challenging quality.
19 September
18 September
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korrents.com
A small, sustained reduction in selfishness compounds into a large positive change in a person over years.Their words
Being 10% less of an asshole, compounded over years, has tremendous effects.
Average moments of a long-term meditatorsashachapin.substack.com
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Their words
That was true of industrial technology in 1870-1970; people basically got used to the idea that railroads and factories and oil and industrialized warfare and such matters were central to the way the world was run and to the collective future of humanity. AI is going to be like that going forward, and we’re just going to have to get used to that.
17 September
16 September
15 September
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korrents.com
The long-term health effects of a disaster deserve as much attention as the disaster itself.Their words
When there is a disaster, it's important to take long-term effects as seriously as the initial event.
14 September
12 September
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Their words
the best way to think about AI is as another social, political, cultural and economic shock in the series of shocks that have been underway over the long industrial revolution.
How should social science think about AI?programmablemutter.com
11 September
9 September
7 September
From one piece @fchollet on X 2 beliefs · x.com
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Their words
So I would not "declare AGI" until we have AI that is, at last, capable of invention -- conceptual breakthroughs, novel insights, new real-world technology, etc.
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korrents.com
The case for building AGI has always been framed around invention, such as curing cancer or solving fusion energy.Their words
The narrative around why building AGI was a good idea has always been about invention -- "it will cure cancer", "it will solve fusion energy", etc.
6 September
5 September
4 September
3 September
1 September
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korrents.com
AI companies are disrupting entire industries, causing a partial collapse of the traditional SaaS business model.Their words
I think you have the real economic effects of AI companies sucking up entire industries now (a lot where indie hackers operate) I do think the SaaSpocalypse is at least partly real
31 August
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Their words
I think it’s entirely plausible that screens have a real negative effect on teenagers, but studies can’t find them because (a) the effects need not be dose-dependent (maybe two hours on your phone isn’t worse than one hour), and (b) given that everyone else is on social media, giving it up can have a negative effect.
29 August
26 August
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Their words
maybe performance could be part of a package where you try to take on one of those players. like, hey, look at how much more responsive our thing is than theirs. Might be a nice plus, but that's not going to be sufficient.
25 August
24 August
23 August
19 August
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Their words
Incredible watering down -- the Singularity is now redefined to mean "the rate of new firm creation has increased somewhat" Vernor Vinge described the Singularity as an event horizon past which everything (e.g. what happens tomorrow) becomes entirely unimaginable and unpredictable to human understanding
17 August
16 August
14 August
From one piece Travis Kalanick: How AI Will Transform the Physical World 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Everything we see, whether it's this room or any room or anywhere you go, everything you see was either grown or mined, manufactured and moved. Everything. And so we look at what we do as industrial AI.
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Their words
If you're doing highcale tasks, industrial scale tasks, you are going to make specialized machines that move and act in the physical world. The key part is move. If they're moving, they got to have wheels.
29 July
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Their words
The transformation to come will be decidedly nonlinear, meaning it will not occur as small impacts over many years but rather a series of infrequent, huge events of enormous destructive power.
From one piece Chartbook 462: China shocked - beyond 1.0 and 2.0 to the "Big One". 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
China shock 2.0 threatens high status manufactured goods: European cars and engineering.
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korrents.com
China's industrial lead was manufactured by deliberate state industrial policy rather than by market forces alone.Their words
What China is delivering in the 2020s is an industrial policy shock of global scale.
24 July
12 July
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Their words
As incredible as it may sound, the blockchain is the most important development in history since the advent of writing itself, as it’s a cryptographically verifiable, highly replicated, unfalsifiable, and provably complete digital record of a system.
30 June
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korrents.com
"Food from thin air" is not from thin air: it runs on water, minerals, ammonia and industrial plant.Their words
Another is that it isn’t ‘food from thin air’ as is often claimed – as well as the high energy use, it’s food from a lot of tap water, minerals, ammonia and industrial infrastructure.
22 June
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korrents.com
A first-person 'I' narrator and a collective 'we' narrative voice produce dramatically different narrative effects.Their words
Narratively, there is a dramatic difference between an "I" narrator and a collective "we" narrative voice.
17 June
16 June
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Their words
In fact, zoning was invented in Europe, in Germany and Austria-Hungary, in the late nineteenth century.
9 June
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korrents.com
Atmospheric CO2 concentration is a lagging indicator of emissions trends, not a leading one.Their words
Either way, atmospheric CO2 is better seen as a lagging rather than leading indicator of changes in emissions, as it is harder to see the effects of emissions reductions on concentrations over shorter time periods.
4 June
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Their words
rather than thinking about individual forecasts like what me and Phil are going to do, rather looking at kind of like basically generating prediction markets, where you get aggregate forecasts, where you get like kind of wisdom of the crowd effects. And kind of the reason that I think this is because we have been famously terrible at forecasting.
3 June
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Their words
But if you ever want to get better at anything, and sometimes that depth, that nuance is the thing that leads to an invention, right? If you know how a compiler works, if you know how memory management works, that might give you enough information to say, "Oh, I can make a new programming language."
1 June
31 May
29 May
24 May
15 May
8 May
From one piece David Reich – Bronze Age shock, the Neanderthal puzzle, & the sudden spread of farming 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
In fact, multiple analyses we do suggest that the genome is vibrating with natural selection, and uh there's all sorts of weaker effects that are there that would be picked up in larger studies even than we've done. Uh and that uh in fact, almost every position in the DNA is uh correlated to a position that in being dragged in one way or the other uh by natural selection. Instead of being quiescent, natural selection is everywhere.
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korrents.com
The Bronze Age, not the invention of farming, was the shock the human genome reacted to most strongly.Their words
our cartoon picture is that the big transition is farming, but the genetic data, the biological readout is saying our genome is reacting much more strongly to this these events that happened 5,000 years ago.
26 April
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korrents.com
Network effects are not a sufficient moat, because software features get copied however many patents you hold.Their words
network effects are certainly an important piece of the puzzle for sure, um but I don't think they're enough when it comes to these sorts of software uh you know, software cloning.
19 April
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Their words
There will be negative second-order effects of almost every widely distributed technology.
7 April
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Their words
Um I think another similarity is I mean, the core notions uh behind Agile and extreme programming are solid and good, but a huge snake oil industry appeared around it, the Agile industrial complex as I like to refer to it. Um and that will happen. That is happening with AI right now, and it's often hard to see the difference between where is the snake oil and where is the real stuff.
24 March
13 March
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Their words
Uh, Micron bought a fab from a company in Taiwan that makes lagging edge chips, right? Um, Heinix and Samsung are doing, you know, some pretty crazy things to try and expand capacity at their existing fabs, uh, that also have like very large knock-on effects in the economy. And so, hey, why can't we build more capacity is like there's nowhere to put the tools, right?
13 February
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Their words
The way you get industries in which there are small number of players are very high costs of entry, right? Um so, you know, uh cloud is like this. I think cloud is a good example of this. You have three, maybe four players within cloud. I think I think that's the same for AI, three maybe four.
12 February
From one piece Speed Can Reindustrialize America 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The robot arm base case saves some hourly labor at the expense of adding more skilled labor, and can easily be negative if it needs reprogramming more than a few times per year.
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Their words
The US excels at high-volume manufacturing, but not low-volume manufacturing.
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Their words
Industrial policy almost inevitably consumes more skilled labor and reduces what we can produce.
+ 1 more
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korrents.com
An industrial robot does not replace labour, it shifts labour from hourly workers to scarce skilled ones.Their words
The key is that robot arms are not labor-replacing, but labor-shifting.
25 January
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Their words
Um all almost all companies have a whole lot more uh cancellation in the first day, 30 days, 90 days, depends, right? But the first period than the whole rest of the customer's life. And also small changes in the onboarding can have large effects on cancellation.
5 January
26 December 2025
14 December 2025
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Likedrcmnd.app
Dead WeightTheir words
Dead Weight by Emmeline Clein: Certain parts of this book really stuck with me and changed how I think, like the chapter on the psychological effects of restriction.
8 December 2025
From one piece Energy Predictions 2025 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The only highly populated industrial country unable to trivially meet its electricity and synthetic fuel needs with solar alone is the United Kingdom, due primarily to a high population density and high latitude. The Nordic and Baltic countries are tiny by comparison. Among other problems, the UK needs to decide if it wants the future where energy is cheap and it is rich, or the future where energy is expensive and it is poor. If the former, it is time to get serious about large scale deployment of wind power, using home-grown vertically integrated technology at prices as low as $10/MWh.
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Their words
By 2045, natural gas will be used as LNG primarily for high performance supersonic aviation, shipping, and industrial heat.
26 November 2025
16 November 2025
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Their words
AI has been compared to various historical precedents: electricity, industrial revolution, etc., I think the strongest analogy is that of AI as a new computing paradigm (Software 2.0) because both are fundamentally about the automation of digital information processing.
15 November 2025
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Their words
There is a feeling that a lot of tail-chasing in industrial improvement is due to interactions not being recognized.
14 November 2025
12 November 2025
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korrents.com
What the industrial revolution took 70 to 150 years to deliver, AI may deliver in 20 to 25.Their words
whatever what took 70 years maybe 150 years for the industrial revolution may happen in 20 years 25 years
22 October 2025
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Their words
It turns out that simply getting people into temporary shelter—often derided by the homelessness-industrial complex as a band-aid—significantly reduces both social and individual harms of unsheltered homelessness.
13 October 2025
27 September 2025
19 September 2025
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korrents.com
An entire army was prescribed methamphetamine by written decree, with dosages, intervals and side effects specified.Their words
And he gave lectures in front of the officers, and he wrote a stimulant decree where a whole army is prescribed a drug, in this case methamphetamine. How much should be taken? At what intervals? What are the side effects?
18 September 2025
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Their words
The average European and UK voter, once he or she moves on from immigration, will notice how Europe and the UK have made energy unaffordable, stopped its growth-exactly as degrowthers wish-and deindustrialized, on the altar of climate policies that do nothing to improve the climate.
12 September 2025
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Their words
but um to make robotic foundation models really work it's not just a laboratory science uh kind of experiment. It's also uh it also requires kind of industrial scale uh building effort like it's it's like it's more like the Apollo program than it is like a science experiment
2 September 2025
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Their words
But once you actually have a sophisticated industrial economy, central planning can't handle the complexity. And so you try and create incentives and structures around that while not having pricing and that just doesn't work.
26 August 2025
22 August 2025
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korrents.com
Diagnoses that have therapeutic effects are medical interventions and should be treated and researched as such.Their words
If a clinical diagnosis can have a therapeutic effect, then, at least in some instances, diagnoses are medical interventions in themselves and ought to be treated and researched as such, with an eye to both positive effects and potential iatrogenic harms.
15 August 2025
From one piece China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
the meta problem here is if we don't move our industrial stack off fossil fuels in 10 or 20 years, first of all, we'll get poor the same way you UK did, right? Because they ran out of coal basically. And the second thing is we'll get poor because we'll flood our coastal cities in Florida underneath climate change.
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Their words
And the bottleneck prior to what we call the industrial revolution was uh metabolism, right? It's just like how much like oats can a human or a horse physically digest and then convert into useful mechanical output for you know their their um their peasant overlord or whatever.
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Their words
You can revisit a bunch of legacy industrial processes that are have been optimized for efficiency and say, well, what if we just like use twice as much power and we just want to do them faster and cheaper, right? Like less capex, less lead time, more power, right?
13 August 2025
From one piece Keyu Jin: China's Economy, Tariffs, Trade, Trump, Communism & Capitalism | Lex Fridman Podcast #477 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Industrial policy was heavily criticized and again, if I talk to my Harvard professors, they’ll be very, very, very skeptical about the role of the state, especially in such a major way. But if you look at the Chinese experience, the evidence for success is all there. The cities that have pushed the most on supporting that particular sector ultimately did the best in terms of production, but also in terms of innovation, measured by patents. It’s all in the data.
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Their words
The US will lead for some time on breakthroughs on disruptive technologies, the zero to one technologies that ultimately change the world. But innovation is a process. It goes from invention to production and commercialization and diffusion, diffusing technology throughout all parts of the economy. And on those two stages, I think that China has a unique advantage, even if it still can’t do the zero to one breakthroughs, because in the end, how much this technology is adopted by the countries and by the various parts of the economy is fundamentally crucial to how much productivity will be unleashed.
29 July 2025
From one piece Indonesia Climbs the Chain 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Poverty reduction is never a purely technocratic exercise, and questions about industrial policy can never be entirely divorced from those of political economy—including those of global geopolitics.
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korrents.com
Industrial policy that grows a poor country’s economy does not automatically reduce its poverty.Their words
But, peering past the hype around Morowali reminds us that we should be careful before assuming that industrial policy must be pro-poor.
23 July 2025
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Their words
And the thing that's going to be harder to deal with this time around is that I think what we're going to see is something like probably 10 times the impact the Industrial Revolution had, but 10 times faster as well. So instead of a 100 years, it takes 10 years and so that's going to make, it's like a 100X, the impact and the speed combined.
16 July 2025
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Their words
A lot of our middle market clients use investment banking products. A lot of our consumer clients use some effects. So, all of our businesses feed each other. There's no extraneous. We got rid of everything that didn't fit a strategy.
11 July 2025
2 July 2025
15 May 2025
From one piece Why are solar panels and batteries from China so cheap? 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Another factor that is killing Europe’s competitiveness — not just for batteries but for many industrial products — is the high electricity costs.
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korrents.com
A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it.Their words
But you cannot support these programs while calling out China for “cheating” for doing the same.
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Their words
But, China mainly dominates these markets because it has produced a long-term industrial strategy for these technologies and has honed an optimised, modern supply chain as a result.
12 May 2025
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korrents.com
Volatile, stop-start trade policy undermines the ability to make durable industrial investment decisions.Their words
a juddering, jarring trade motion is not the stuff of which durable industrial decision-making is made.
7 April 2025
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Their words
Persistent U.S. trade deficits are an epiphenomenal mirror to our persistent capital account surpluses, which are in turn downstream of the beggar-thy-neighbor industrial policies of countries like China and Germany.
6 April 2025
From one piece America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
China already installs several times more industrial robots a year than the United States does, and cheaper ones.Their words
First, China, on a yearly basis installs 7x as many industrial robots as we do in the United States.
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korrents.com
A humanoid robot is the wrong tool on a factory floor, because a machine specialised in the task beats it.Their words
They are not useful in industrial environments where, if a humanoid robot can do it, an industrial machine which is specialized in the task can do it even better.
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Their words
That’s because America has an amazing consumer supply chain, one of the best, if not the best in the world, but this is totally different from having an industrial supply chain.
+ 1 more
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Their words
Automation will not save us.
3 February 2025
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Their words
China, if they wanted to build the largest data center in the world, if they had access to the chips, could. So it's just a question of when, not if.
21 January 2025
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Their words
The fact remains that without a stock of capable administrators, industrial policy and export targeting and infrastructure-building—or even Adam Smith’s minimum of “peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice”—are a nonstarter.
10 January 2025
16 December 2024
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The GoalTheir words
Written in the '80s, yet a timeless novel on what management is about, may that be a manager of a team, an organization or an industrial plant.
6 November 2024
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Lovedrcmnd.app
And Suddenly the Inventor AppearedTheir words
A delightfully insane introduction to systematic invention.
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Designing for PeopleTheir words
Memoirs of one of the founders of industrial design.
10 October 2024
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Likedrcmnd.app
The Invention of the Jewish PeopleTheir words
Fascinating subject. Countries are made of stories. Kings didn’t need their subjects to agree, but nations do. So to build a nation, they need to make a story that helps people feel a shared identity, nationalism, and what distinguishes them from their neighbors. Back-creating a history. Founders of Israel did this brilliantly.
30 September 2024
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
The Invention of Yesterday: A 50,000-Year History of Human Culture, Conflict, and ConnectionTheir words
The result is extremely engaging, and while I didn't particularly learn from it, I daresay most of the prospective audience will not, in fact, have read as widely in Ansary's sources as I happen to have done.
19 August 2024
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The ChipTheir words
The Chip -- the invention of the microchip.
3 May 2024
23 January 2024
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korrents.com
China's industrial lead was manufactured by deliberate state industrial policy rather than by market forces alone.Their words
The foundations of China’s success in EVs were built a decade ago, when the state decided to bet on batteries, and then bought up a lot of the mines for these metals.
12 January 2024
3 January 2024
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korrents.com
A modern shipyard can match a whole wartime industrial mobilisation with a fraction of the workers.Their words
South Korea's yearly production often matches the total tonnage the US produced in WWII - with one-fifth of the workers!
14 December 2023
From one piece Jeff Bezos: Amazon and Blue Origin | Lex Fridman Podcast #405 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
That's an inventor's greatest dream, is that their inventions are so successful that they are one day taken for granted. Nobody thinks of Amazon as an invention anymore. Nobody thinks of customer reviews as an invention.
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Their words
Efficiency and invention are sort of at odds, because real invention, Not incremental improvement... Incremental improvement is so important in every endeavor, in everything you do, you have to work hard on also just making things a little bit better. But I'm talking about real invention, real lateral thinking that requires wandering, and you have to give yourself permission to wander.
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Their words
It's interesting to me that large language models in their current form are not inventions, they're discoveries. The telescope was an invention, but looking through it at Jupiter, knowing that it had moons, was a discovery.
25 October 2023
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Their words
“lots of anonymous people just invented through trial and error and adaptation” just doesn’t cut it for me — I’ve never found such stories to be true upon closer investigation.
Age of Invention: Lessons from the Rise of Coalageofinvention.xyz
2 March 2023
From one piece Choose People 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
But, whether it makes financial sense or not for the individuals involved, they are responding to distorted prices, not scarcity, and the world is not better off from their invention and innovation.
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korrents.com
Policy can manufacture a false necessity, and false necessity is the mother of wasteful invention.Their words
There is an old saying that “necessity is the mother of invention” but it is also true that policies can create false necessity and false necessity can be the mother of costly, resource consuming, dumb inventions.
13 December 2022
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Their words
The invention of peer review may have even encouraged bad research.
11 October 2022
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Their words
Initial massive exaggeration of the importance of an effect gives way to more realistic, much smaller effects (which might still be useful) after people start doing better studies.
7 September 2022
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Their words
I personally think that’s the single biggest invention in the whole history of life.
26 August 2022
From one piece Collections: Why No Roman Industrial Revolution? 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The specificity matters here because each innovation in the chain required not merely the discovery of the principle, but also the design and an economically viable use-case to all line up in order to have impact.
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Their words
In my view the key takeaway here is just how contingent the industrial revolution was: the industrial revolution that occured required a number of very specific pre-conditions which were really on true on Great Britain in that period.
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Their words
The thing is, being a particularly complex or efficient agrarian economy doesn’t seem to have been the most important thing for producing the industrial revolution or it almost certainly would have happened earlier and probably not in Europe.
1 July 2022
22 November 2021
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Their words
Finally, not just old chips and new chips, but the companies that make the chips (semiconductor fabs) are becoming more consolidated and more strategic.
The Rising Tide of Semiconductor Costfabricatedknowledge.com
17 November 2021
16 May 2021
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The British Industrial Revolution in Global PerspectiveTheir words
The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective is the best book on the country’s adoption of sustained economic growth at the turn of the nineteenth century, full stop.
1 April 2021
23 January 2021
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korrents.com
Stagnation does not mean no progress; it means progress slower than the late 1800s to mid-1900s peak.Their words
Stagnation just means slower progress. And not even slower than that pre-industrial era, but slower than, roughly, the late 1800s to mid-1900s, when growth rates are said to have peaked.
29 September 2020
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korrents.com
The Information Age could be a species-level shift comparable to the Industrial RevolutionTheir words
I find it plausible that the Information Age will be a species-level shift on par with the Industrial Revolution.
23 March 2020
1 January 2020
From one piece 2019 letter 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The skills US workers learned in the process of becoming an industrial giant helped set the US up for technological leadership over the rest of the century.
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korrents.com
Putting research and manufacturing in the same place shortens the loop in which industrial knowledge circulates.Their words
These hubs allow for tight connections between R&D and manufacturing, shortening the circulation of knowledge in a production loop.
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Their words
One lesson is that technology is highly path-dependent.
18 November 2019
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Their words
Air pollution is a very big deal. Its adverse effects on numerous health outcomes and general mortality are widely documented. However, our understanding of its cognitive costs is more recent and those costs are almost certainly still significantly under-emphasized. For example, cognitive effects are not mentioned in most EPA materials.
26 July 2019
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Their words
Human error is blamed for over 90 percent of industrial and automobile accidents. It is the leading cause of aviation accidents, and medical error is reported to be the third-largest cause of death in the entire United States. Horrifying? Yes, but why do we label it “human error”? It is design error.
1 January 2018
Nothing matches.
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