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There is also a very important step called randomization. Is that you have to take the same environment and then randomize the conditions. So, the cable doesn't literally only, you know, uh bend this way. It can bend a different way or the box can have different sizes, colors, different lids, and all that.
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David Spiegelhalter Papers
The effects of quality of evidence communication on perception of public health information about COVID-19: Two randomised controlled trials
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4 September
21 July
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Their words
Take Eroom’s Law: the number of new drugs approved per dollar of R&D has fallen for decades, even as our scientific tools have grown vastly more powerful, the exact opposite of what the existence of more raw capability would predict.
Intelligence is not the main bottleneckwritingruxandrabio.com
20 July
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However, there's an increasing body of literature that shows that by engaging older adults in novel cognitive activities, you see improvements in function. So that can be language learning. Uh that can be uh complex like coordinative movement or exercise. You see the same things with um like musical training like people learning a new musical instrument or learning um musical theory trying to identify different patterns in music. And you see in randomized control trials improvements particularly in executive function that seems to be most common across those different interventions.
4 June
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the ballerina and the kind of performer, that's the wrong reference class. Right now we have a lot of jobs where you have different tasks. So this is the task-based model jobs where you have like a lot of different tasks. So like a doctor, what is their job? They're filling out insurance documents. They're you know, going and like calling different pharmaceutical companies. And one of their tasks is to actually see the patient and talk to them, but that's like actually not the main part part of the job.
1 May
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I have a pet theory that removing the option for antibiotics forces farms to treat animals better, because bad conditions engender disease and without the quick fix of antibiotics that can get very expensive.
28 February
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Lastly, the duration of a clinical trial does not merely determine how fast an individual therapy reaches patients. It also shapes which diseases attract serious investment and which do not.
9 December 2025
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the reason it's a catastrophic way to be paid my argument is that marketing is actually fat tailed so is innovation R&D pharmaceutical research science okay in other words 5 to 10% of what you do delivers perhaps 110% of the value
23 December 2023
From one piece The pharma industry from Paul Janssen to today: why drugs got harder to develop and what we can do about it 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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The cost to discover and develop a drug today is orders of magnitude higher than in the 1950s. Despite this, the probability that a drug entering clinical trials will eventually reach the market has hardly improved in the intervening years.
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Because patents have fixed term lengths, with small extensions to compensate for the year or so when the drug is under regulatory review, drug developers are incentivized to go after conditions where clinical trials can be completed quickly, all else being equal.
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In reality, the productivity crisis in the pharmaceutical industry is the culmination of decades of just about every aspect of drug discovery and development getting gradually harder and more expensive.
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