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John Baez Mastodon
Imagine thinking you had a good 20 years ahead of you. You go to the doctor for an annual physical, she does some tests, then comes back with a long face and says "I'm sorry to say: you have just 2 months to live". That's what just happened here. While planets in the inner Solar System are believed to have orbits that are unstable in the long term, astrophysicists thought the outer planets could last ~100 billion years before being picked off by other stars flying past, and other effects. But recently, we've learned something that changes this story. As red giants lose their mass by puffing o…
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20 September
15 September
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korrents.com
Solar power's exponential growth will continue until all other energy sources are far below 0.1%.Their words
The solar power exponential will continue until all other energy sources are <<0.1%
14 September
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korrents.com
China scaled solar and batteries when America refused to because the CCP got scared of climate change.Their words
China scaled solar and batteries when America refused to, because the CCP got scared of climate change.
8 September
7 September
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Their words
there is actually one thing we do know how to do, and that is build out lots of cheap solar, wind, and batteries.
4 September
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Their words
This kind of thing will be exploited. Think Solar Winds–style supply chain attacks.
3 September
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korrents.com
Solar power combined with batteries has surpassed nuclear power as the superior energy technology for most uses.Their words
Because solar has, broadly speaking, won the technological race. Intermittency was the last big problem, and batteries have gotten good and cheap enough to make solar reliable.
30 August
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Their words
But physics is giving us very little time now, and so the next set of elections in this country will be, I think, our last real chance to make the sea change-replacing oil and gas with sun and wind-that is our best hope for limiting warming.
29 August
15 August
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Their words
Nuclear energy is the safest form of energy empirically. If you look at the amount of power generated versus the amount amount of deaths, um it's even safer than solar, which is very strange because how does someone die from solar? that actually most solar is installed on roofs and people sometimes die falling off of a roof installing solar and if you add those deaths up it is actually a higher death per energy than the totality of nuclear energy in the world.
13 August
From one piece Fun with numbers 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
that charge long leveled at sun and wind-that they provide "intermittent power"-is probably truer now of other energy sources
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Their words
Batteries are the transformative technology for the second half of this decade, as sun and wind were for the first half
10 August
24 July
30 June
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Their words
but I do think that in a future of probable energy constraint there will be a need for a more peopled agriculture, with populations spreading out to tap diffuse solar energy input.
24 April
5 March
3 February
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Their words
I believe this is the watch great watchmakers would make today, given that back in the 1800s they were using all available technology.
23 December 2025
8 December 2025
From one piece Energy Predictions 2025 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
On the flip side, these captive solar power plants will be curtailing approximately 75% of their generated power and will be able to provide net power on all but a few days per year.
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Their words
The only highly populated industrial country unable to trivially meet its electricity and synthetic fuel needs with solar alone is the United Kingdom, due primarily to a high population density and high latitude. The Nordic and Baltic countries are tiny by comparison. Among other problems, the UK needs to decide if it wants the future where energy is cheap and it is rich, or the future where energy is expensive and it is poor. If the former, it is time to get serious about large scale deployment of wind power, using home-grown vertically integrated technology at prices as low as $10/MWh.
31 October 2025
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Their words
It’s also a capsule to nowhere, designed without reference to any mission architecture that resembles our actual solar system.
NASA’s Orion Space Capsule Is Flaming Garbagecaseyhandmer.wordpress.com
18 August 2025
15 August 2025
From one piece China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
so the mainstream view would say, well, China has cheaper labor, which is no longer true, uh, say compared to Mexico, and it's got lower environmental regulations, uh, which is true, and that it is more businessfriendly, which is absolutely crazy.
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korrents.com
Solar's growth is not merely continuing but accelerating, and the rate of that acceleration is itself still rising.Their words
It is not only the case that solar adoption, production, price decreases are continuing. They're accelerating. And the rate that they're accelerating is still accelerating.
23 July 2025
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Their words
I think fusion and solar are the two that I would bet on. Solar, I mean it's the fusion reactor in the sky of course, and I think really the problem there is batteries and transmission.
16 July 2025
16 June 2025
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Their words
Shoulder generation (in late summer) of any given year is generally a higher share of global electricity demand than the peak generation (spring) of the year prior.
19 May 2025
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korrents.com
The failure of wind or solar power to show up has never been the primary cause of a major grid blackout.Their words
While renewables are almost always blamed in the aftermath of major power cuts or grid disruption - and the way they have been integrated into the grid has certainly been found to compound problems - the simple failure of wind or solar power to show up has never yet been found to be the primary cause.
15 May 2025
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Their words
But, China mainly dominates these markets because it has produced a long-term industrial strategy for these technologies and has honed an optimised, modern supply chain as a result.
12 May 2025
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Their words
this technology, consistently underestimated, now adds more capacity to the global grid than anything ever and will soon add more power in any given year than anything ever as well.
5 May 2025
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Their words
It becomes impossible to imagine that life was not sparked somewhere else, in our Milky Way galaxy, and maybe even in our local neighborhood of the Milky Way galaxy, maybe within a few hundred light years of our solar system.
22 December 2024
From one piece Adam Frank: Alien Civilizations and the Search for Extraterrestrial Life | Lex Fridman Podcast #455 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And so, what we found was basically that there have been 10 billion trillion habitable zone planets in the universe. And what that means is that those are 10 billion trillion experiments that have been run. And the only way that we're this whole process from a biogenesis to a civilization has occurred is if every one of those experiments failed.
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korrents.com
The 2,500-year-old argument about whether planets are common is settled: every star in the night sky has planets.Their words
In which case, those kinds of collisions are so rare that you would expect one in a trillion stars to have planets. Instead, every star in the night sky has planets.
22 April 2024
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Their words
This is the 2001 monolith hypothesis. I would be less surprised to find a quiescent alien artifact in our solar system than I would to catch a radio signal from an intelligent civilization.
18 April 2024
From one piece How to Make Off Grid Data Centers Affordable 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The optimal scenario is typically when the generators supply 1% of yearly electricity (shown below).
How to Make Off Grid Data Centers Affordableaustinvernon.site
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korrents.com
A data centre powered by solar and batteries alone needs an array so oversized that the design is not worth building.Their words
The solar array sizes under these assumptions are prohibitively large.
How to Make Off Grid Data Centers Affordableaustinvernon.site
25 March 2024
From one piece Preventing a “Space Pearl Harbor”: Rep. Turner leads the charge 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
If a Chinese spacecraft can dock with a friendly satellite to refuel, repair, or transport it, the same robotic arm can also disable a US satellite’s solar panels and antennas. Alternatively, China can use these spacecraft to tow satellites into locations where they can, at best, only sub-optimally perform intended duties such as early warning, surveillance, or geolocation.
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Their words
Based on public commercial data that tells a lot about the military potential of these dual-use robotic spacecraft, we have shown that China can manufacture and deploy 200 such spacecraft as early as 2026, enough to cripple critical US satellites in geosynchronous, highly elliptical, and other orbits, and thus severely degrading space support to wartime operations.
14 December 2023
From one piece Jeff Bezos: Amazon and Blue Origin | Lex Fridman Podcast #405 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Yeah, the only way to get to that vision is with giant space stations. The planetary surfaces are just way too small.
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Their words
I would love to see a trillion humans living in the solar system. If we had a trillion humans, we would have, at any given time, 1,000 Mozarts and 1,000 Einsteins. That our solar system would be full of life and intelligence and energy.
5 September 2023
From one piece Biofuels: the US could switch to electric cars and solar power on just a fraction of the land 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
You can drive about 150 times as far from a solar-powered electric car compared to using corn bioethanol.
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korrents.com
We worry about the land solar needs while ignoring how wastefully the world already uses its farmland.Their words
While we fret over the amount of land needed for solar, we are often blind to how inefficiently we have used the world’s farmland.
6 June 2023
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Their words
an acre of solar panels generates as much energy as 100 acres of corn grown for ethanol.
A Climate Killer Disguised as a Climate Solutionmichaelgrunwald.substack.com
4 March 2023
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Their words
Consider the solar industry, for which the US laid the scientific groundwork, only for Chinese firms to make all the photovoltaic cells.
17 November 2022
7 September 2022
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Their words
So, it wouldn’t surprise me any longer if we found life on Mars and it had a genetic code that was not very different to the genetic code that we have here without it just being transferred across, there’s some inevitability about the whole of the beginnings of life, in my view.
14 May 2020
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Their words, before
And beyond that, by the time solar scale has doubled 4 more times, to the equivalent of 16% of today’s electricity demand (and somewhat less of future demand), we should see solar at 3 cents per kwh in the sunniest areas, and 4.5 cents per kwh in moderately sunny areas.
Their words now
Both of those forecasts were wrong. Solar has plunged in price faster than anyone – including me – predicted.
From one piece Solar's Future is Insanely Cheap (2020) 5 beliefs · rameznaam.com
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korrents.com
Solar's future price should be predicted from how much has been built, not from how much time has passed.Their words
We can use the last decade to predict the future prices of solar power. Not by looking at the cost of solar as a function of time, but by looking at the cost of solar as a function of cumulative scale of the solar industry.
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Their words
In short solar prices have dropped faster and lower than almost anyone has expected.
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korrents.com
Demand for electricity will rise to absorb far more solar than is currently considered feasible.Their words
Add these up, and it’s plausible that solar’s contribution to the energy system could double or triple the amount currently considered feasible for solar to provide.
+ 2 more
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korrents.com
Average solar electricity prices in sunny parts of the world will fall to one or two cents per kwh by 2030 or 2035.Their words
This incredible pace of solar cost decline, with average prices in sunny parts of the world down to a penny or two by 2030 or 2035, is just remarkable.
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Their words
The data paint an incredible picture: One that shows the price of solar electricity from utility-scale systems dropping by anywhere from 30-40% with each doubling of cumulative solar deployment.
2 April 2019
5 January 2018
13 November 2017
22 September 2016
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