Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Former option trader and risk analyst, now a distinguished professor at NYU. Author of the Incerto essay series, including The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness.

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Where they publish

Site fooledbyrandomness.com Their own site: essays, technical papers and a blog.

Longer technical writing on probability and risk, alongside more discursive essays. Named for his first book.

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Link verified 8 Sept 2026.
x.com @nntaleb Aphorisms and arguments about probability, risk and public discourse. Very active.

Short, often combative posts applying the ideas from his books to current events -- one of the most prolific posters among the people on this site.

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Link verified 8 Sept 2026.
Books The Incerto Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and more.
The multivolume essay series on uncertainty, risk and randomness that made him known outside finance -- Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, and Skin in the Game.

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The books
- Fooled by Randomness
- The Black Swan
Link verified 8 Sept 2026.