Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Former option trader and risk analyst, now a distinguished professor at NYU. Author of the Incerto essay series, including The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness.
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What they believe
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In complex decisions exposed to fat tails, decisions should not rest on statistically based claims
Here is where your limits are. Do not base your decisions on statistically based claims.
edge.orgSaid 14 Sept 2008This on korrents
The bold line is korrents’ wording; the quote is theirs. These one: what they wrote before what they said aloud, one per source, newest first.
Beliefs
Korrents What they believe 8 beliefs — each backed by an exact quote.
Each is a — compiled by korrents.com, not by them: the one-line wordings are korrents', the quotes are theirs.
Recent
In complex decisions exposed to fat tails, decisions should not rest on statistically based claims
Here is where your limits are. Do not base your decisions on statistically based claims.
The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008) Said 14 Sept 2008
Depending on exposure, one can be extremely wrong and be fine, or slightly wrong and blow up
In some situations, you can be extremely wrong and be fine, in others you can be slightly wrong and explode.
The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008) Said 14 Sept 2008
Empirical knowledge of rare events’ role is inversely proportional to their impact
If small probability events carry large impacts, and (at the same time) these small probability events are more difficult to compute from past data itself, then: our empirical knowledge about the potential contribution—or role—of rare events (probability × consequence) is inversely proportional to their impact.
The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008) Said 14 Sept 2008
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With no typical event under fat tails, prediction markets are ludicrous because they make events look binary
This absence of "typical" event in Extremistan is what makes prediction markets ludicrous, as they make events look binary.
The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008) Said 14 Sept 2008
Only fools optimize, since a simple model error can blow through their capital
Only fools (such as Banks) optimize, not realizing that a simple model error can blow through their capital (as it just did).
The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008) Said 14 Sept 2008
Things that have worked for a long time are preferable
Things that have worked for a long time are preferable—they are more likely to have reached their ergodic states.
The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008) Said 14 Sept 2008
Absence of volatility should not be confused with absence of risk
Do not confuse absence of volatility with absence of risks.
The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008) Said 14 Sept 2008
Prosperity comes from avoiding blowups, as longer life comes from avoiding death
You can live longer if you avoid death, get better if you avoid bankruptcy, and become prosperous if you avoid blowups in the fourth quadrant.
The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics (Edge, 2008) Said 14 Sept 2008
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Recommends rcmnd
rcmnd What they recommend 2 things — each backed by an exact quote.
Compiled by rcmnd.app, not by them: the quotes are theirs, and each links to the post it was copied from.
Recent
Loved Happy Accidents: Serendipity in Modern Medical Breakthroughs
It is a MUST read. Please go buy it. Read it twice, not once.
What others say about Happy Accidents: Serendipity in Modern Medical Breakthroughs →
Loved A History of God
The book spent twelve years in my library before I read it and recommended to anyone who would listen to me.
Where they publish
Site fooledbyrandomness.com Their own site: essays, technical papers and a blog.
Longer technical writing on probability and risk, alongside more discursive essays. Named for his first book.
Link verified 8 Sept 2026.
x.com @nntaleb Aphorisms and arguments about probability, risk and public discourse. Very active.
Short, often combative posts applying the ideas from his books to current events -- one of the most prolific posters among the people on this site.
Recent
- This is not possibly Gaussian. It has no left tail. Quiz: find a better distribution using the same parameters: v, m, k T 22 Oct 2026
- Wake up. Every profession deemed white-collar, the middle class dream, is about to be decimated by AI, at a much faster pace than anticipated, with monstrous social consequences. 22 Oct 2026
- This cyclist friend of mine was asked by the half-brother of his (Italian) barber's mother in law whether a 90lb KETTLEBELL could be useful --or if it is overkill. (corrected) 22 Oct 2026
Show 17 more
- Finally some good news. 21 Oct 2026
- More horrifying scenes insufficiently buried by propaganda. 21 Oct 2026
- I have never been a "rug merchant". Outside finance, the only physical merchandise I have ever sold was condoms in industrial quantities shipped to the bordello where his mother used to work --which, I admit, may not have been perfect. 20 Oct 2026
- Another linguistic lesson to that retard @DavidM_Friedman. Under international law, you are not a "terrorist" when there is occupation. The formal name is "resistant". 20 Oct 2026
- This is how it works... 20 Oct 2026
- So he does a documentary & the evil state blows up his house in S. Lebanon. Cowards, evil Zionist terrorists. They didn't do it with Israelis & Westerners. 20 Oct 2026
- Incorrect. Ashkenazi DNA is not 60% Levantine. More, later. 19 Oct 2026
- Really getting out of control. 19 Oct 2026
- Awards are rewards for compliance and tools of submission. 18 Oct 2026
- When you lose your appetite for food you lose your appetite for life. People on GLP-1 have this absence of gusto in them that makes them poor companions. They are almost as unpleasant to be with as longevity-health optimizers. 18 Oct 2026
- Italy is scared of Zionistan; it is only suing SOME Israeli officials for actions taken by a state that they REPRESENT. Had it been another country it would have gone against THAT State. Disgusting. 17 Oct 2026
- Another animal out of control. 17 Oct 2026
- Christophobia is REAL. More, later. 17 Oct 2026
- I had absolutely no idea Antifragile would get so much out of control. 16 Oct 2026
- Another way the current administration is trapped in the ZERO-SUM FALLACY: The H-1B visa situation. + You are NOT taking a job from a citizen, rather creating jobs by increasing overal economic output. Plus these people (even vegetarians) SPEND locally. + The US has long been benefiting from other countries' brain drain; without it its edge wd collapse. Tesla, Von Braun, von Neumann, Fermi & Einstein did NOT each take the job of a citizen. + It the problem is anti-Indian racism, say it, don't play games. 16 Oct 2026
- Rest in peace Franco Fazzolari (Frank) --for thirty years my barber, Calabrese "galabrez" teacher, restaurant advisor, and friend. Ad vitam aeternam. 16 Oct 2026
- ETYMOLOGY OF KNOSSOS Years ago, the first think that hit me studying Mycenian history is that KNS is a Canaanite word meaning "gathering" (Knis is synagogue in Arabic, Knisseh is church (Knissia), Knesset is parliament, etc). Chek also Miknes, Miknasa. Will AI help us solve Linear A? 15 Oct 2026
Link verified 8 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
Books The Incerto Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and more.
The multivolume essay series on uncertainty, risk and randomness that made him known outside finance -- Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, and Skin in the Game.
The books
Link verified 8 Sept 2026.
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