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Anton Howes Newsletter
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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21 September
19 September
18 September
16 September
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korrents.com
The climate impact from NVIDIA's AI products in 2025 is comparable to that of a major state-owned coal company.Their words
we produced our own conservative estimate, finding that the climate impact from 2025's use of NVIDIA'S AI products is on par with the state-owned Russian Coal company.
15 September
8 September
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korrents.com
Neural networks do not have a one-to-one mapping between individual neurons and concepts.Their words
researchers started by seeking a 1:1 mapping between neurons and concepts, like a neuron that always fired when the AI was thinking about cats, but quickly learned that nothing like that existed.
7 September
5 September
1 September
26 August
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korrents.com
Over the last two centuries, the global stock market has never lost money in nominal terms across any 20-year period.Their words
In the last 225 years, the global stock market has never experienced a 20-year period where stocks lost money in nominal terms.
20 August
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Their words
The main cause of falling fertility globally over the last 200 years has been declining child mortality.
We Actually Know A Lot About Fertility Declinelymanstone.substack.com
15 August
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Their words
I know that nuclear fision will make energy a thousand times cheaper than it is today. somebody will do that and it's really up to us as a team whether or not that's going to be in the future decades or the future centuries
14 August
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korrents.com
Delaying the phase-out of coal and gas power plants causes far more deaths than phasing them out quickly.Their words
If we don't stop using these power stations ASAP, the number of people killed by them will be far higher than if we phase them out quickly.
16 June
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Their words
It is often the case that a work which contains radically unusual ideas will drift along being not particularly zoomed in on by society and not widely read until it hits a moment that the new questions being asked in that century or that decade are answered by something in that text.
4 June
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Their words
So, like with lawyers particularly, you need some entity to back up the product. You need kind of like an ownership of the product. You need somebody to be able to fire or or hire, like licensing issues. There's a lot of like sort of like regulatory layers that are like also going to be keeping even if there's no relational element human in the loop that have nothing to do with like the ability of the human to actually perform the service.
10 May
From one piece How Anthropic, Costco, and Patagonia all build incorruptible companies | Eric Ries 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
this idea is old enough that we now have a generation of people who have been raised as if this was a natural law. This is how capitalism has always been. But that's wrong. For the vast majority of the time, for hundreds of years, we have had joint stock corporations. Only the last 40 have we had this idea.
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Their words
I call it the force that no one controls but everyone obeys that tends to drag organizations down into mediocrity to the point that we lose control of them. Now, sometimes we lose control of them because we get fired.
30 April
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Their words
In the face of weakened renewable roll-out in Australia, the most likely outcome is simply that coal and gas just generate more, and for many more years past their shut down date.
8 April
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Their words, before
Where I get fired up, and this ties back to the AI discussion, is when that's turned into this meme, that programmers no longer have to be competent. I mean the AI is gonna figure it out. The generators is gonna figure it out. I don't need to know SQL, active record is gonna abstract it away from me. No, no, no dude, hold up. The path here is competence.
Their words now
really good programmers are currently more valuable than ever because they're the ones who are able to get the most out of the AI acceleration.
11 March
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korrents.com
An excellent engineer who still reads the agent's diffs carefully before checking them in is going to get fired.Their words
they they're like, "Yeah, you know, I use Cursor, and I I ask it questions sometimes, and I'm really impressed with the answers, and then I review its code really carefully, and then I check it in." And I'm like, "Dude, you're going to get fired, and you're one of the best engineers I know."
1 December 2025
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korrents.com
Coaches who depend on clients paying them repeatedly avoid the corrections that might drive those clients away.Their words
American tennis coaches do not want to get fired. They want you to continue to pay them.
26 November 2025
21 September 2025
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Their words
we often also have this mental model of like oh our managers are a judge and they're going to judge me on whether or not I got it I did well I should get a promotion I should be fired so there's this sometimes fear that people have but I think in the very best relationships the manager is like a guide
18 September 2025
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Their words
in management uh like a CEO is is being fired when results are bad, which I think is fundamental that's multiple levels of wrong. Um, but like the way to judge a CEO is like out of what opportunity did you carve what company?
15 August 2025
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Their words
the meta problem here is if we don't move our industrial stack off fossil fuels in 10 or 20 years, first of all, we'll get poor the same way you UK did, right? Because they ran out of coal basically. And the second thing is we'll get poor because we'll flood our coastal cities in Florida underneath climate change.
12 July 2025
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Their words, before
it's a luxury good like you're not paying the penalty for that the people who embrace it and think that they can just ask AI for everything or they can just look everything up but they don't have to understand the copy pasta that they slam into their project they're the ones who going to suffer
Their words now
Where I get fired up, and this ties back to the AI discussion, is when that's turned into this meme, that programmers no longer have to be competent. I mean the AI is gonna figure it out. The generators is gonna figure it out. I don't need to know SQL, active record is gonna abstract it away from me. No, no, no dude, hold up. The path here is competence.
14 June 2025
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Their words
But I have faith that we've been doing this for centuries and we've made progress before. There's no reason why we should stop.
10 June 2025
24 May 2025
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Their words
I think whoever fired first was not decided at that point, but I do think that from the moment that Hitler takes power in 1933, a conflict between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany is inevitable.
12 February 2025
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On changing their mind
As I set out last time, the usual story — that this was caused by deforestation, making firewood so scarce that people resorted to burning an inferior but cheaper fuel — simply does not stack up.
From one piece Age of Invention: How Coal Really Won 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Far from being the laboratory that brought coal into the home, then, London was actually a laggard — all the more so given it had been buying coal from Newcastle for centuries.
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Their words
England’s deforestation — along with the draining of its peat-filled fens and marshes, and the clearing of its gorse-growing heaths — was instead itself caused by the arrival of cheap coal.
3 February 2025
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Their words
Interesting thing is certain regions of the US transmitting power cost more than actually generating it because the grid is so slow to build. And the demand for power, and the ability to build power, and re-ramping on a natural gas plant or even a coal plant is easy enough to do, but transmitting the power's really hard.
22 December 2024
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korrents.com
A Mars base is not a backup plan for climate change or nuclear war, because self-sufficiency there is centuries away.Their words
So, trying to establish a base on Mars it's going to be so hard that it is not even going to be close to being self-sufficient for a couple a century at least. So, it's not like a backup plan now, we have to solve the problem of climate change, we have to deal with that.
4 October 2024
18 March 2024
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Their words
A lot more people have died of air pollution than nuclear reactors, for example. But most people worry more about living next to a nuclear reactor than a coal plant. But something about the way we’re wired is that although there’s many different kinds of risks we have to confront, the ones that make a good climax scene of a movie carry much more weight with us than the ones that are very bad over a long period of time but on a slow burn.
9 February 2024
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Their words
It's the next step in a centuries-long human mission to conquer long-distance.
All My Thoughts After 40 Hours in the Vision Prowaitbutwhy.com
13 December 2023
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Their words, before
If I were forced at gunpoint to guess, I'd say that human-level AI seemed to me like a slog of many more centuries or millennia
Their words now
I was wrong, of course, not to contemplate more seriously the prospect that AI might enter a civilization-altering trajectory, not merely eventually but within the next decade.
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Their words, before
If I were forced at gunpoint to guess, I’d say that human-level AI seemed to me like a slog of many more centuries or millennia (with the obvious potential for black swans along the way).
Their words now
I was wrong, of course, not to contemplate more seriously the prospect that AI might enter a civilization-altering trajectory, not merely eventually but within the next decade.
25 October 2023
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Their words
Yet lime is a huge blind spot for economic historians, despite it increasing the productivity of what was still by far the largest portion of the economy: agriculture.
Age of Invention: Lessons from the Rise of Coalageofinvention.xyz
1 October 2023
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Their words
A simple understanding of coalitions, political competition, and limited resources will bring you rather quickly to the conclusion that intelligent liberal elites can screw up their colonies pretty badly and in ways that can persist for decades or centuries.
1 September 2023
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Their words
And the way of being in the physical world today is really not in tune with the time dimension of the natural world at all, and that needs to change.
29 August 2023
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Their words
Historical myths are especially zombie-like. Even when disproven, they just. won’t. die.
15 August 2023
12 August 2023
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Their words
Instead of decades to centuries, I now see it as 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence.
11 August 2023
28 January 2022
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Their words
the system of social organization that characterized the ancient world practically vanished and would have to be redeveloped centuries later.
12 September 2020
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korrents.com
Two centuries of progress were a trend with real causes rather than a fluke, and can continue far into the future.Their words
A foundational conviction of this project is that progress is a trend with definite, substantive causes, and that it can continue far, far into the future.
19 August 2020
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Their words
Though we usually think of collapse as a slow process, it can in fact happen very quickly, as was the case with the Late Bronze Age collapse.
4 June 2020
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korrents.com
The plague did not pass through in 1348 and leave: it stayed endemic in Europe for nearly four centuries afterwards.Their words
in school they talk as if the plague swept through in 1348 then went away, but the bubonic plague did not go away, it remained endemic, like influenza or chickenpox today, a fact of life.
2 April 2019
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