Satya Nadella
Chairman and chief executive of Microsoft since 2014; joined the company in 1992 and ran its cloud business before that.
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Korrents What they believe 22 beliefs — each backed by an exact quote.
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AI is a tool and not something mystical: plenty of past technologies also took over things only humans had done.
But that has been the case with many technologies in the past. only humans did a lot of things and then we add tools that did them.
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
Economic growth from AI waits on change management, not on model capability: the work artifact and the workflow have to change first.
even if the tech is diffusing fast uh this time around for true economic growth to appear it has to sort of diffuse to a point where the work the work artifact and the workflow has to change and so that's kind of one place where I think uh the change management required for a corporation to truly change I think is something we shouldn't discount
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
What the industrial revolution took 70 to 150 years to deliver, AI may deliver in 20 to 25.
whatever what took 70 years maybe 150 years for the industrial revolution may happen in 20 years 25 years
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
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AI will do to software what the cloud did: expand the market massively rather than crush the margins of the incumbent.
So this AI thing will be that right. So if you take coding um what we built with GitHub and VS code in over whatever decades uh suddenly the coding assistant is that big in one year and so that I think is what's going to happen as well which is the market expands massively.
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
Coding is a software-factory category that may end up bigger than knowledge work itself.
this fundamentally this category of coding and AI is probably going to be one of the biggest categories right it is a software factory category in fact it may be bigger than knowledge work
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
Microsoft has no birthright in AI; its luck is only that the new category is far bigger than the ones it used to dominate.
there's no birthright here that we should have any confidence other than to say hey we should go innovate and knowing the the lucky break we have in some sense is that uh this category is going to be a lot bigger than anything we had high share in
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
A model company may face a winner's curse: it does all the hard innovation and is then one copy away from being commoditised.
so I can make the argument that oh my god uh if you're a model company you may be you may have a winner's curse you may have done all the hard work done unbelievable innovation except it's kind of like one copy uh away from that being commoditized
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
There will always be a fairly capable open-source model in the world, which puts a permanent floor under what anyone can charge for one.
structurally I think there will always be an open- source model uh that will be fairly capable in the world that you could then use as long as you have something that you can use that uh with which is data uh and a scaffolding
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
Applications will not be wrappers around a model; the model gets wrapped into the application.
we will build our own applications scaffolding which will be model forward right it won't be a wrapper on a model but the model will be wrapped into uh the application
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
Microsoft's end-user tools business will become an infrastructure business in support of agents doing the work.
In fact, I kind of look at it and say our business which today is an enduser tools business will become essentially an infrastructure business in support of agents doing work.
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
The per-user software business becomes a per-agent business, and it grows faster than the number of users.
which I think is going to just keep growing because guess what it's going to grow faster than the number of users. So in fact that's kind of one of the other questions people ask me is hey what happens to the per user business at least the early signs may be the way to think about the per user business is not just per user it's per agent
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
An agent will reach for purpose-built tools rather than a raw computer, because tools are more token-efficient.
So this AI tool that comes in also has not just a raw computer uh because it's going to be more token efficient to use tools to get stuff done.
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
Models will end up like databases — many of them, deployed for different uses — rather than one model used everywhere.
it's kind of like databases right it's always the thing it's like hey can one database be the one that just is used everywhere except it's not uh there are multiple types of databases that are getting deployed uh for different use cases.
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
Infrastructure optimised for a single model is one architectural breakthrough away from being worthless.
You can't build an infrastructure that's optimized for one model. If you do that what if you go fall behind? In fact, all the infrastructure you built will be a waste, right?
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
Being the host for one model company, with one massive customer, is not a business.
we didn't want to just be a host for one company uh and have just a massive book of business with one customer that that's not a business right
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
Building capacity at massive scale on a single hardware generation is the trap; pacing matters more than gigawatts.
Oh by the way the other thing is I didn't want to get stuck with massive scale of one generation.
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
The question to answer about AI infrastructure is not what you do in the next five years but what you do for the next fifty.
the thing that you have to think through is not what you do in the next 5 years but what do you do for the next 50
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
Most of the gain in tokens per dollar per watt comes from software, not from new hardware — 5x, 10x, sometimes 40x on one model family.
the improvement software improvements of really throughput in terms of tokens per dollar per watt that we're able to get uh you know quarter over quarter year over year is massive uh right so it's 5x 10x maybe 40x in some of these cases
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
The biggest competitor to any new AI accelerator is the previous generation of Nvidia.
the thing that is the biggest competitor for any new accelerator is kind of even the previous generation of Nvidia right I mean in a fleet what I'm going to look at is the overall TCO
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
America holds half the world's market capitalisation because the world trusts it, and losing that trust would be a bad day for the United States.
that 50% happens because quite frankly the trust the world has in the United States whether it's its capital markets or whether it's its technology and and its stewardship of what matters at any given time in terms of leading uh sector. So if that is broken uh then that's not a good day for the United States.
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
Trust in American technology, not model capability, may be the thing that wins the world.
you just made the point of why I think trust in American tech is probably the most important feature. It's not even the model capability. Maybe it is like can I trust you the company? Can I trust you? Your country and its institutions to be a long-term supplier may be the thing that wins the world.
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
What decides a country's fortunes is not owning the leading sector but using the leading technology to create its own comparative advantage.
ultimately I think what matters is the use of AI in their economy to create economic value right I mean that's the uh the diffusion theory which is ultimately it's not the leading sector but it's the ability to use the leading technology to create your own comparative advantage right so that I think will fundamentally be the core driver
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI Said 12 Nov 2025
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