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David Spiegelhalter
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The effects of communicating scientific uncertainty on trust and decision making in a public health context
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20 September
President of the French Republic since 2017.
À Miquelon, la montée des eaux menace l’avenir d’un village. Face au changement climatique, il nous faut nous adapter. Nous relocalisons le village pour protéger ses habitants et permettre aux générations futures de continuer à vivre sur leur terre. Nous adapter, sans jamais nous résigner. Nous continuerons à œuvrer pour protéger les territoires menacés, réduire nos émissions de gaz à effet de serre et limiter le réchauffement. Malgré les crises qui bouleversent le monde, le climat doit rester le combat de notre siècle. Ce message essentiel, je le réaffirmerai aux Nations unies dès demain. Po… English, from French In Miquelon, rising waters threaten the future of a village. Faced with climate change, we must adapt. We are relocating the village to protect its inhabitants and allow future generations to continue living on their land. Adapting, without ever giving up. We will continue to work to protect threatened territories, reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, and limit global warming. Despite the crises shaking the world, the climate must remain the fight of our century. I will reaffirm this essential message at the United Nations tomorrow. Po...
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18 September
President of the French Republic since 2017.
16 September
Founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975 and led it until stepping back from control in 2022. Author of Principles, The Changing World Order and How Countries Go Broke; publishes economic analysis at economicprinciples.org.
As I’ve explained here before, at this stage in my life, my main goal is to pass along the principles and templates I've learned with the hope that they can help others as much as they've helped me. One thing that has been incredibly valuable to me is learning that just because something hasn’t happened before in my lifetime doesn’t mean it won’t happen. So I needed to look not only at what the markets have been doing lately but to also study big events—like debt crises, internal political conflicts, and international wars—throughout history. For example, it was by studying the Great Depressi… wmi.edu.sg
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14 September
Essayist, journalist and independent researcher on Chinese politics, strategy and cultural history; author of the blog The Scholar's Stage.
With all respect to Chris, who has done much great work in this area, I do not agree. A Global Times “quick take” editorial is not the sort of government communique that “clearly and unmistakably” communicates anything. Between them the PRC government and the CPC have many organs and forums more authoritative than this, all better suited for drawing lines in the sand. A GT editorial should not be dismissed, but it is worth asking—if Xi’s mind was made up on the matter, why he would choose *this* uncertain venue to make point? Were I to sift the tea leaves, I would say this: to me this looks l… Quoting @ChrisRMcGuire The Chinese government has now clearly and unmistakably rejected serious collaboration with the United States on AI safety. This was a predictable development. It is also a clarifying moment for the importance of U.S. export controls on AI chips and other technologies, which are now indisputably a… government Related
3 September
Author of Recoding America; founded Code for America and was US deputy chief technology officer from 2013 to 2014. Writes Eating Policy on why governments cannot do what they decide to do.
1 September
Writes Don't Worry About the Vase, a near-daily account of what is happening in AI and what they think it means. Former Magic: the Gathering pro and trader; unusually willing to put a number on a belief and to grade their own past calls.
Their words
Anthropomorphizing the AIs is the only way to reason about, explain to civilians about, or make good predictions about current AIs.
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thezvi.substack.com
28 August
Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.
24 August
Computer science professor at Georgetown University and author of Deep Work, Digital Minimalism and Slow Productivity; writes about focus, technology and work at calnewport.com and hosts the Deep Questions podcast.
20 August
Political scientist and Baptist pastor; writes Graphs about Religion, charting American religious life from survey data.
America
Their words
Which means that they aren’t sliding all the way to the other side of the spectrum. Instead, they are just moving one level down.
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graphsaboutreligion.com
17 August
Machine-learning researcher on open language models; writes the Interconnects newsletter and the RLHF Book, after leading post-training at Ai2.
22 July
Member of technical staff at Anthropic. He has led ML/AI teams at Amazon, Alibaba and Lazada, and writes about LLMs, recommender systems and engineering at eugeneyan.com.
When evaling models, we anchor on the median task. But this is like how devs estimate the median task accurately but underestimate the mean which tends to be ~2x estimated (thus "double your estimates"). This applies to models too—we optimize for time/cost on median tasks. But it's the tail tasks that determine a project's completion, and reliable models (like Fable and Opus) are the diff between success and failure. Work with models as collaborators, not tools. Go beyond pair-programming, where given a narrow spec, the tool just executes in minutes. Instead, explain your intent and what succ… Quoting @Steve_Yegge Fable is careful. None of the other models are careful. GPT-5.6 Sol, Opus, Kimi, Grok. You can compare them all day long on capabilities, and it doesn't matter, because in order to use a model for real production work, it must first and foremost be careful. That's the only dimension that matters to… Related
9 July
Short-story writer and novelist; won the Booker Prize for Lincoln in the Bardo, and teaches craft weekly in Story Club.
21 June
Economic historian at Columbia; writes Chartbook on economics, geopolitics and history, and wrote Crashed and The Deluge.
13 June
Cardiologist and founder of the Scripps Research Translational Institute; writes Ground Truths on biomedical research, and wrote Super Agers and Deep Medicine.
24 May
Organizational psychologist and professor at the Wharton School. Author of Give and Take, Originals, Think Again and Hidden Potential, host of the Re:Thinking podcast, and writer of the GRANTED newsletter.
Their words
People are more drawn to arrogant leaders in an uncertain world, because they mistake swagger for strength and skill.
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adamgrant.substack.com
3 May
Statistician and software engineer who writes R packages for reproducible research and publishing, including knitr, bookdown and blogdown.
10 April
Programmer and writer; specified JSON, wrote JavaScript: The Good Parts, JSLint and How JavaScript Works.
19 February
Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and author of The Art of Statistics.
OSR questioning the Covid Inquiry's claim that modelling 'established' 23,000 fewer deaths if mandatory lockdown imposed a week earlier on March 16th. In fact this estimate is not only very uncertain, but also assumes voluntary measures were brought forward a week, to March 9th Quoting @StatsRegulation We have today written to the Covid-19 inquiry regarding the presentation of statistical modelling in the Executive Summary of its Module 2 report👇 Related
13 February
Programmer, teacher and speaker; long-time Microsoft developer-community figure, host of the Hanselminutes podcast and author of the hanselman.com blog.
Had an amazing two days speaking to thousands of developers on how to navigate the uncertain future. One thing that really struck me though was the number of times people said things like I read your book in high school or I learned this language from your video, and now these folks are senior engineers at big companies I’ve only been doing this for like what, five years? Crazy 👴 Related
22 August 2025
Founded PSPDFKit in 2011 and ran it for a decade. Came back from a break to work on AI agents — the OpenClaw project, and OpenAI, joined in February 2026. Writes at steipete.me.
16 July 2025
Independent AI policy researcher; led policy research at OpenAI from 2018 to 2024, latterly as senior adviser for AGI readiness.
18 June 2025
Independent AI policy researcher; led policy research at OpenAI from 2018 to 2024, latterly as senior adviser for AGI readiness.
17 December 2024
Venture capitalist and founder of Theory Ventures, previously a partner at Redpoint. Writes a near-daily blog on startups, SaaS metrics, data and AI.
Their words
I’ve read every one of his books, & this is the most recent
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tomtunguz.com
28 November 2024
Machine-learning researcher; has written the Lil'Log survey posts on how a model technique works since 2017, and worked at OpenAI from 2018 to 2024, latterly leading its safety systems team.
13 June 2024
Astrobiologist and theoretical physicist at Arizona State University, working on assembly theory and the physics of life.
energy Trauma
Their words
I think for me, the frontier in modern physics, where the new physics lies is not in high energy particle physics, it’s not in quantum gravity, it’s not in any of these sort of traditionally sold, “This is going to be the newest deepest insight we have into the nature of reality.” It is going to be in studying the problems of life and intelligence and the things that are sort of also our current existential crises as a civilization or a culture that’s going through an existential trauma of inventing technologies that we don’t understand right now.
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youtube.com
29 August 2023
Historian of invention; writes Age of Invention on where the Industrial Revolution actually came from.
Their words
But I’ve become increasingly worried that science’s replication crises might pale in comparison to what happens all the time in history, which is not just a replication crisis but a reproducibility crisis.
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ageofinvention.xyz
30 January 2019
Investment researcher and engineer who runs Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, writing on macroeconomics, currency systems and equity analysis.
Their words
His book Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises is an important read for investors that want to protect themselves from or benefit from recessions and other financial crises.
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lynalden.com
30 August 2018
Obesity researcher; wrote The Hungry Brain, on why the brain overeats, and reviews nutrition evidence.
Their words
The work of Philip Tetlock, PhD and others has shown that people who have one big idea to explain everything (“hedgehogs” or ideologues) are very bad at accurately modeling the world, predicting outcomes, and recommending effective actions.
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stephanguyenet.com
1 January 1998
Economist; Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, and Chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017.
Nothing matches. Show everything
A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one
sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at
korrents.com .
Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said.
The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in
korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who
else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public
statements, and a person can change their mind, which is recorded too.
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About the English under a post
Some people here publish in a language other than English. Where they
do, this site shows a machine translation beneath the post, in
this typeface — the site's own, not theirs.
The post itself is never changed, moved or hidden: what is set in the
serif above is exactly what the person published, and it is what to
quote them on. A translation can be wrong in ways that matter,
especially about tone.
Only the post's own words are translated. A quoted post, a linked
article and a belief on korrents.com
are left in their original language.
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