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Nassim Nicholas Taleb x.com
If AI mapped a cure for terminal pancreatic cancer I don't think anyone would dare complain about its effects on medical unemployment. But people are upset that AI can solve math problems and cause unemployment in performative mathematics. Fuck them.
The subject this post names, from the same vocabulary the directory files beliefs under, and the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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20 September
From one piece Your Job Gives You More Than Money 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Finding a new job is the most effective remedy for the psychological harm of unemployment.Their words
But the most powerful remedy for the stress of unemployment is getting back to work.
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korrents.com
Expecting a layoff in advance provides little psychological protection against its effects.Their words
Being mentally prepared didn't provide much protection. The effects of job loss looked remarkably similar.
19 September
18 September
14 September
13 September
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korrents.com
Claude performatively treats straightforward, non-shady questions as too dangerous and downgrades to Opus.Their words
Claude's performative "this request was sooo dangerous that we downgraded to Opus" is wearing me down I ask it straightfoward questions, nothing shady, nothing complicated, and it tells me it's too dangerous for Fable. What BS.
12 September
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korrents.com
Labor market segments that compete purely on price are the most vulnerable to technological disruption.Their words
One way to look at this is that there's a part of the labor market that competes purely on price-in this case, basically by being the poorest place rich enough to afford fast Internet-and this category is the most vulnerable to technological disruption.
7 September
4 September
3 September
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Their words
The people being worried is in and of itself a problem for jobs.
28 August
From one piece How AI agents "radicalized" a top Meta exec into quitting her job 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Universal basic income alone will not address the economic gap created by AI-driven job displacement.Their words
I don't think that universal basic income on its own will address the gap that's widening.
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Their words
But I think there have been enough studies now isolating those variables that show that AI is directly responsible for a lot of this job loss.
24 August
12 August
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korrents.com
We cannot say what a junior engineer is worth because we cannot say what any engineer is worth; it is all vibes.Their words
The hardest thing about quantifying the value of junior engineers is that we don't know how to quantify the value of any engineer. So it's all vibes.
5 August
1 August
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korrents.com
China's tolerance of deflation has caused widespread underemployment and unemployment among its youth.Their words
Policy decisions have condemned a generation of Chinese youth to widespread under- and un-employment.
29 July
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Their words
I predict that in the next 10 years software development will survive, but it will become like any other white-collar professional work. No more $200,000 salaries, unlimited vacation, or incredible employee bargaining power.
2 July
28 June
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korrents.com
American overregulation and labor-market rigidity make elevators far more common in Europe than in the US.Their words
elevators are the rare part of the economy where Europeans have embraced market dynamism while Americans choose overregulation and labor market rigidity.
8 June
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Their words
I'm not an activist and empty words are usually just slacktivism.
5 June
4 June
From one piece The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Like right now we're endowed with labor that can turn into uh that can turn into income. When that is no longer the case and we are now at the mercy of the of the elected official for like basic needs, right? So that to me feels like a power sharing arrangement that's really dangerous.
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Their words
They just recently released a report, and I think like you really have to squint to see anything happening. Like basically, if you want to take kind of like uh an an approach across the entire economy and looking at even looking at like software engineering, like the most exposed sort of sectors, there's just like not really anything going on. There might be a little bit of a signal about like junior developers getting jobs less than before, and that but that's like a less than before rather than a level shift.
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Their words
rather than thinking about individual forecasts like what me and Phil are going to do, rather looking at kind of like basically generating prediction markets, where you get aggregate forecasts, where you get like kind of wisdom of the crowd effects. And kind of the reason that I think this is because we have been famously terrible at forecasting.
2 June
1 June
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korrents.com
Enduring job displacement is undesirable and dangerous, and should be minimised rather than accepted as a goal.Their words
First, enduring job displacement is undesirable and dangerous, and we should do everything we can to minimize or prevent it, not to bring it about.
24 May
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Their words
But the like mass unemployment thing I think that like some AI CEOs are talking about like I think that's not going to happen.
13 May
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Their words
In a sense, we're all turning into project managers, right? And and we can have an army of junior programmers called agents that will just spit out reams of code, but someone's got to have the big picture and review all of that. And so, increasingly our craft is going from one of writing the code to one of of reviewing the code and and building the architecture of the code and overseeing the work, if if you will.
7 April
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Their words
Yeah, AI is an amplifier. And if uh if you're young and learning quickly, AI is going to amplify that or can amplify that. So, I I personally think this is this is the golden age of the junior programmer.
13 March
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Their words
As we move from, you know, hey, [clears throat] these companies are selling tokens where they provide the entire uh reasoning chain and all that to uh selling automated, you know, white collar work, right? Automated software engineer, send them the request, they give you the result back and there's a bunch of thinking on the back end that they don't show you. The ability to distill out of American models into Chinese models will be harder.
12 March
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Their words
Everybody thinks our schools are in crisis all the time because they’re being forced to do something they were never meant to do, which is to make everyone college-ready, and they’re being forced to do that because we have seen jobs that provide a living wage without a college diploma evaporate.
12 February
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Their words
I- I can relate that if you very deeply identify that you are a programmer, that it's scary and that it's threatening because what you like and what you're really good at is now being done by a soulless or not entity. But I don't think you're just a programmer. That's a very limiting view of your craft. You are, you are still a builder.
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Their words
Long lead times and soft costs, fueled by the world-leading US wages for "white collar" work, are the root cause of poor performance in low-volume production because there are few units to spread the soft costs over.
1 January
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Their words
This is a topic that I warned about very publicly in 2025 , where I predicted that AI could displace half of all entry-level white collar jobs in the next 1–5 years, even as it accelerates economic growth and scientific progress.
22 December 2025
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Their words
A good overview of his work in labor economics.
6 December 2025
17 November 2025
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korrents.com
Only the US and China have substantial startup activity left; the rest of the world cannot really do startups.Their words
I just realized the only 2 countries left with actual substantial startup activity now are literally only the US and China The rest of the world can't really do startups, doesn't have the funding, can't grow them and it's more like performative hobby projects for their governments Which might tell us where the future wealth will be concentrated in the world
14 August 2025
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