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Sunil Pai x.com
You can’t bring AGI to the world without a specific story of how it’s going to benefit everyone, and I think the model companies aren’t doing a good job of it (barely anything tbh)
The subject this post names, from the same vocabulary the directory files beliefs under, and the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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19 September
18 September
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korrents.com
The current capabilities of existing AI models are barely being used and are often not even well understood.Their words
My point is that, while there is a lot of debate over what future models will do, the current capabilities of existing models are barely being used, and are often not even well understood.
17 September
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Their words
Historically, whenever companies get power over what people's computing facilities can do, they use it against us, building malicious functionalities, designed to benefit them, into the software they invite us to use.
16 September
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Their words
Republicans' long-term strategy, since Reagan, is to spend a lot of money (mainly on things that won't benefit non-rich Americans), refuse to raise taxes, and therefore greatly increase the national debt.
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Their words
we explore and contest all these claims, which we contend are not supported by strong evidence.
15 September
14 September
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korrents.com
High-power amplifiers (e.g. 500 watts) offer no real listening benefit over much lower-power designs.Their words
I have always believed there is no need for massive 500-watt power amps, as I have never personally heard a benefit from having that much power.
Luxman L-100 Centennial Review. Class A Returns.stevehuffphoto.com
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Their words
Now if they get scared of AGI, they'll slow down their own models.
13 September
12 September
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Their words
This is the first time a debate over whether a model ‘was AGI’ felt non-silly. I do not think it is AGI, and I would warn against the dangers of using that label prematurely, but I would not laugh at you for disagreeing.
11 September
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Their words
The value of a degree is in question, as tuition costs have increased in the last few decades while the college premium-the expected benefit from getting a diploma-has flatlined and possibly even declined in the last few years.
10 September
9 September
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Their words
Yes — but it would be expensive and take a great deal of time. In short, if Trump, Bessent and company think that trade conflict with Canada is a trivial issue, one that Americans will barely notice, they’re in for a rude awakening.
Adding Injury to Insult, Canada Editionpaulkrugman.substack.com
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korrents.com
The purpose of immigration is to benefit the people who already live in the receiving country.Their words
A third principle that liberals should embrace is that the purpose of immigration is to benefit the people who already live in the country that is receiving the immigrants. Immigration to America must be for the benefit of Americans.
Liberalism needs a new philosophy of immigrationnoahpinion.blog
8 September
7 September
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korrents.com
Copyright law's purpose is to incentivize creation for public benefit, not to guarantee revenue streams.Their words
The constitutional rationale for US copyright is incentivizing creation for public benefit, not necessarily securing revenue streams.
From one piece @fchollet on X 2 beliefs · x.com
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Their words
So I would not "declare AGI" until we have AI that is, at last, capable of invention -- conceptual breakthroughs, novel insights, new real-world technology, etc.
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korrents.com
The case for building AGI has always been framed around invention, such as curing cancer or solving fusion energy.Their words
The narrative around why building AGI was a good idea has always been about invention -- "it will cure cancer", "it will solve fusion energy", etc.
6 September
5 September
4 September
3 September
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korrents.com
AGI is not a finish line to be crossed but a smear with width, and we are already standing on it.Their words
some bits of AI are way across the finish line, some bits are like maybe in the middle of it. Who knew the line had dimension? The finish line is actually this sort of smear. And I think the best answer you can give is like we're on the smear.
2 September
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korrents.com
Happier couples respond to a partner's lapses by assuming distraction or tiredness rather than indifference.Their words
Happier couples tend to give each other the benefit of the doubt. Rather than assuming "My partner doesn't care," they're more likely to consider that the other is tired, distracted, overwhelmed or simply unaware of the impact of their behavior.
1 September
From one piece Ajeya Cotra – "This might be the clearest warning shot we ever get" 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So, I do think that if it happens to be like on the very fast and chaotic end, that would be a relative benefit to this rogue swarm compared to humans. But it's not obvious that it gets caught if it takes twice as long versus half as long.
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korrents.com
Open-source models cannot keep frontier systems in check, because they will always be much dumber than the frontier.Their words
I'm not sure I like agree exactly with the oversight benefit you named of like you know open source systems keeping frontier systems in check feels more unrealistic to me because they're going to be so much dumber than the frontier systems.
27 August
26 August
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korrents.com
Entrepreneurs benefit from setting ambitious goals, even though most people do not need grand ambitions at all.Their words
And I will say I've actually changed my mind on that a little bit. I spent quite a lot of time speaking the other book that there are a lot of people who don't actually need those ambitions. And I also-- That's also true. We don't want 8 billion Elons running around the world. Would be rather crazy, I think. But I've come to realize that for entrepreneurs, it's healthy to have suitable chunky goals.
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Their words
One of the reasons that you don't see hotspot optimization as a thing that really matters that much anymore and one of the reasons I advise that architecture and and not making bad decisions is much more important is because a lot of libraries already have been optimized for you that you might use.
24 August
From one piece Do Religious Families Actually Have More Kids? 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Yes, religion does seem to have an impact on the decision about the number of kids a family will have, but it’s a very minor difference.
Do Religious Families Actually Have More Kids?graphsaboutreligion.com
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Their words
Among the Silent Generation (born 1925–1945), only 15% of parents had a single child. It was 22% of Boomers and 27% of Generation X.
Do Religious Families Actually Have More Kids?graphsaboutreligion.com
20 August
19 August
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Their words
I would say, sometimes, I don't know if it's controversial, that very few developers understand memory management. And that makes it even harder to debug memory problems. And so the state of the art around memory debugging hasn't evolved all that much over the years.
18 August
17 August
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Their words
The greater the confidence in a clear view of the battlespace, the greater the reliance on military strategies that could benefit from that clarity, even though they might not be the best ones to meet political objectives.
14 August
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Their words
At the end of the day, this type of safety barely matters when true open-weights are coming.
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Their words
economic research has repeatedly found that they rarely generate enough marginally income, employment, or tax revenue to justify the subsidy.
12 August
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Their words
AI had to help renewable energy four to five times more than fossil fuels just for emissions to break even.
11 August
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Their words
I think one reason why um the the AIs have been scaled up less than you would have otherwise expected and like for example cost of of per token hasn't increased as much as you might have thought is because there's a benefit to doing more of your um work at small scale where you can run more training runs and get more cycles in
7 August
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korrents.com
Making a highly paid team wait a week to buy a tool at half price destroys far more value than it saves.Their words
then you also remember that you've hired some very highly paid and talented employees. And are you saying they can't get the tools that they need? That you're spending $100,000 a week. If you wait a week to get a power supply half off, you have certainly dwarfed any possible benefit from getting it.
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Their words
it's not out of the question that Anthropic or OpenAI-which barely had any revenue before 2023-could equal or surpass the revenue of all of Musk's public companies some time in the next 12 to 24 months.
3 August
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Their words
And that's why every hype cycle produces a wave of absolutely spectacular demos and very few real products. And the recurring mistake of every cycle is spending on the demo when you should be saving for the nines.
2 August
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korrents.com
Deciding on averages is how product teams destroy the small group for whom a barely-used feature is everything.Their words
there are real downstream impacts to people's businesses that often come from just like a lack of nuance in understanding metrics, particularly averages.
30 July
29 July
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Their words
you know, the world is like really just, you know, barely even ready for this technology today. And I think, you know, as a builder, we have a responsibility to prepare the world, right?
25 July
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Their words
The Rumpelstiltskin effect is not a claim that receiving a diagnosis is a net benefit or a net positive. It is a claim that the mere act of receiving a diagnosis can be beneficial.
20 July
From one piece Accelerate Learning & Increase Cognitive Capacity | Dr. Tommy Wood 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Whereas aerobic exercise on that kind of intensity spectrum we just talked about seems to particularly benefit the gray matter which includes the hippocampus. Resistance training seems to particularly benefit the white matter.
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Their words
But there are now at least three randomized control trials that have shown that omega-3 status and B vitamin status interact and they're dependent on one another. So, if you give uh B vitamins to somebody who has elevated homocyine, you bring down their homocyine, but they have poor omega-3 levels, you don't see any benefit.
14 July
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Mixed onaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and LifeTheir words
It might have worked even better as two separate books, rather than as one short book trying to do two things. But Booth's writing is soothing, and his overall message — investing is simply a bet on human innovation and progress — is a truism worth repeating. Young people, in particular, might benefit from reading it.
13 July
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Their words
I think some research, again it's correlational, shows that people who spend, you know, 5 hours a week with their grandchildren have improved memory. So that seems we don't know if it's causal, but it's interesting that those who spend more than 20 hours a week don't show this benefit. In fact, might show the opposite.
30 June
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korrents.com
A new transit line still benefits riders it diverts from existing lines, not only the new riders it attracts.Their words
Riders diverted from other lines still benefit from the project, especially in a case like QueensLink, where the diverted riders would enjoy an improvement in trip time to Midtown of about 10-15 minutes each way.
21 June
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Their words
High-polluting industries benefit directly and obviously from the collapse of trust, shared reality and information quality.
11 June
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Their words
I think there's a 25% chance of AGI by 2027, a 50% chance by 2034, and a 75% chance by 2045.
9 June
4 June
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korrents.com
Younger generations are rejecting AI hype while older generations, who stand to benefit from it, remain optimisticTheir words
there's a consistent theme where Gen Z (and millennials, to some extent) are rejecting the AI hype while older generations are optimistic and coincidentally in a position to benefit from it.
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Their words
I would prioritize trying to index, but just given how fast AI could, you know, hit the world. But, um I definitely wouldn't just rely on that because like it could the the sort of um messy middle type cases or the just a long timelines cases on which like you we don't get it anything like AGI all that soon.
From one piece The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
because a lot with electricity, a lot of the downstream benefits actually came to like the users of the electricity rather than the rather than the actual entity producing the electricity. On the other hand, with social media, it was the opposite case, right? Social media, you know, it was everywhere. Everybody uses social media, but the rents went to the platform.
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Their words
So, I think there is a world where it is concentrated, in which case it's going to be really hard to index AGI. There is another world where it is not It's electricity, then like basically every company has access to AGI. So, you just buy you use buy the index. So, like, you know, Nigeria just needs to buy the index.
16 May
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korrents.com
Larger language models already have enough capacity that extra per-layer embedding tricks add little benefit to them.Their words
However, larger models already have sufficient capacity where these extra embeddings may not help that much.
10 May
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Their words
It doesn't guarantee that you're the good guys. Okay? Just writing it down doesn't do that much. But it does solve one very specific problem, which is if someone one day sues you saying you breached your fiduciary duty to investors, you could say, "Nope, investors agreed that this is our purpose to do this thing.
9 May
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korrents.com
Stronger enforcement against tax and benefit cheating would raise social trust in government.Their words
It would behoove politicians to take cheating more seriously, because better enforcement would improve social trust
13 April
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Their words
Backlash is also the inevitable consequence of AGI-pilling the nation.
7 April
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Their words
And this looks to me like, oh, we're down at sort of the bottom of the tech tree. We've barely gotten started there.
6 April
From one piece The term “AGI” is almost useless at this point 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Today’s best AI systems are good enough that they’re now inside the fuzzy conceptual cloud of “AGI-ish”: that is, they’ve surpassed some people’s definitions of AGI, while falling well short of others’.
The term “AGI” is almost useless at this pointhelentoner.substack.com
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Their words
This makes it likely that there could be big gaps between when different definitions of AGI are fulfilled.
The term “AGI” is almost useless at this pointhelentoner.substack.com
1 April
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Their words
Focus on making great computers with great user experiences above all else, and you can trust that every other major goal will follow: profit, market share, expansion, impact, and benefit to the world.
25 March
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Their words
You can give it a Bash tool so it can ripgrep its way through the codebase. You can give it some queryable codebase index, an LSP server, a vector database. In the end it doesn't matter much. The bigger the codebase, the lower the recall. Low recall means that your agent will, in fact, not find all the code it needs to do a good job.
23 March
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korrents.com
Asked when an AI could build a billion-dollar business on its own: AGI has already arrived.Their words
I think it's now. I think we've achieved AGI.
13 March
From one piece Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI compute 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
You can you can take the margin like Nvidia takes the margin. memory players are taking the margin, but ASML has never risen the price more than they've increased the capability of the tool. Um, and so in a sense, they've always provided net benefit to their customer.
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korrents.com
You do not have to believe in AGI to believe in the timelines on which the United States wins the semiconductor race.Their words
But I don't know like I don't know what fast timelines means, right? Like I I like don't think you have to believe in AGI to have the timelines where the US wins.
10 March
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Their words
This, in turn, creates serious estimation problems for the diversion rate, which is why environmental benefit-cost analyses underrate the effect of urban rail construction.
23 February
22 February
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Their words
We need to accept that at best, we will just barely avoid some of the worst case scenarios (e.g., an AI-enabled biological weapon that kills billions, a rogue AI takeover, or stable global totalitarianism enabled by AI), given the current pace of AI capabilities relative to the pace of governance.
We're in Triage Mode for AI Policymilesbrundage.substack.com
20 February
13 February
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Their words
but it's not an infinitely compelling product, and I don't think even AGI or powerful AI or country of geniuses in a data center will be an infinitely compelling product. It will be a compelling product enough maybe to get three or five or 10x a year growth even when you're in the hundreds of billions of dollars, which is extremely hard to do and has never been done in history before, but not infinitely fast.
1 February
20 January
15 December 2025
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Their words
When you're in any kind of creative thing, there is this benefit to not just following the financial incentives and and not trying to kind of like milk every last penny out of it. And to creating scarcity, not just for the sake of the scarcity, but for the sake of the quality.
14 December 2025
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Tony's Chocolonely Lil BitsTheir words
Tony's Chocolonely Lil Bits (in Milk Caramel Sea Salt and Cookie Mix), which single-handedly got me through this work year. I shudder to think how many bags of these I ate, but I can barely finish an essay without one.
7 December 2025
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Lovedrcmnd.app
MoanaTheir words
And in fact, I do like Moana very much. It’s my favorite film out of Disney Animated Studios in the last decade, and even (barely) edges out Coco when you include Pixar in the mix
25 November 2025
From one piece Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
A human being, a human being lacks a huge amount of knowledge. Instead, we rely on continual learning. We rely on continual learning.
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korrents.com
The whole problem of AI and AGI is the power, and nothing else about it is the problem.Their words
Indeed, the whole problem, what is the problem of AI and AGI? The whole problem is the power. The whole problem is the power. When the power is really big, what's going to happen?
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Their words
Like basically I think I think that there is a big benefit from AI being in the public and that would be a reason for us to not be quite straight shot.
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Mixed onrcmnd.app
Framework DesktopTheir words
It's an incredible machine, but in the day-to-day, I've actually found I barely notice the difference compared to a $500 mini PC from Beelink
23 November 2025
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korrents.com
The main advantage of an LLM evaluator over human annotators is scalability, not higher accuracy.Their words
In my opinion, the true benefit isn't higher accuracy than human annotators-it's scalability.
31 October 2025
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Their words
Basically, a modern film is no different from a 1939 film. But with games, I still think we’ve got a long way to go.
17 October 2025
From one piece Andrej Karpathy — “We’re summoning ghosts, not building animals” 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
a lot of what looks like learning is actually a lot more maturation of the brain and I think that actually very little reinforcement learning for animals and I think a lot of the reinforcement learning is actually like more like motor tasks. It's not intelligence tasks. So I actually kind of think humans don't actually like really use RL roughly speaking is what I would say.
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korrents.com
Quietly dropping physical work from the definition of AGI is a major concession, not a clarification.Their words
Now, number one, the first concession that people make all the time is they just take out all the physical stuff because we're just talking about digital knowledge work. I feel like that's a pretty major concession compared to the original definition which was like any task a human can do.
25 September 2025
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Their words
Companies and countries are tempted to cut corners by default and would benefit from some rules of the road, at least if they're sure others will follow those rules.
1 September 2025
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korrents.com
A major new interface redesign takes roughly a year of refinement before it looks presentable.Their words
Liquid Glass is currently in a barely presentable state on iOS. It's going to be like iOS 7 and take another year to sand down the rough edges.
21 August 2025
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Their words, before
I suspect that if you decided to be open-minded, then the Being would probably be extremely persuasive. But I don’t think it’s very common to do that.
Their words now
I take it back. Instead of being unsure, I now lean strongly towards the idea that the Being would in fact be very good at convincing people of stuff, and far better than any human.
18 August 2025
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Their words
This kind of zone of the barely doable, it's super important that to the largest extent possible, you be able to kind of control your own technology destiny.
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Their words
I don't think all parts of the economy can absorb intelligence equally. So let's just say we develop fairly generalized super intelligence. I always use the analogy like you can invent a lot of drugs, but if clinical trials still take a long time, you're not necessarily going to get new therapies rapidly.
15 August 2025
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Their words
well their cost of serving it is is like maybe a buck per million tokens or something like that and the cost of electricity is about 10% of that. So it's like 10 cents of electricity is generating $1,000 worth of economic value.
30 July 2025
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Their words, before
This means that working on neural networks is NOT getting us closer to AGI, except indirectly.
Their words now
It’s become very difficult for me to maintain the belief in the stupidity of ChatGPT when every time I laugh at it, it ends up ridiculing me 6 months later.
23 July 2025
From one piece Demis Hassabis: Future of AI, Simulating Reality, Physics and Video Games | Lex Fridman Podcast #475 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
My estimate is sort of 50% chance by in the next five years, so by 2030 let's say. So I think there's a good chance that that could happen.
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Their words
And maybe also make the system available to a few hundred of the world's top experts, the Terence Taos of each subject area and give them a month or two and see if they can find an obvious flaw in the system. And if they can't, then I think you can be pretty confident we have a fully general system.
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korrents.com
The last steps to AGI should be taken by a CERN-style international research project, not a Manhattan Project.Their words
I hope we'll end up with something more collaborative if needed, more like a CERN project where it's research-focused and the best minds in the world come together to carefully complete the final steps and make sure it's responsibly done before deploying it to the world.
+ 1 more
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korrents.com
Scaling what we already have, with no further breakthroughs, will be enough to reach AGI.Their words
And so we don't know, I would say it's kind of 50/50 whether new things are needed or whether the scaling the existing stuff is going to be enough.
15 June 2025
10 June 2025
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korrents.com
A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject.Their words
It follows that a true AGI with full, human-level autonomy is inconceivable in the Kantian sense without also gaining our recognition as a moral subject.
7 June 2025
From one piece A knockout blow for LLMs? 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The vision of AGI I have always had is one that combines the strengths of humans with the strength of machines, overcoming the weaknesses of humans.
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Their words
What the Apple paper shows, most fundamentally, regardless of how you define AGI, is that LLMs are no substitute for good well-specified conventional algorithms.
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korrents.com
Anyone who thinks large language models are a direct route to transformative AGI is kidding themselves.Their words
But anybody who thinks LLMs are a direct route to the sort AGI that could fundamentally transform society for the good is kidding themselves.
28 May 2025
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korrents.com
Drug enforcement cut casual use and barely touched heavy users, who account for most of the drugs consumed.Their words
But by the available evidence, the War on Drugs was far less successful at reducing use among the “hard core” of users, mostly meaning people addicted to their drug of choice.
What Was The War on Drugs? Part Vthecausalfallacy.substack.com
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Their words
Cut and cover will sometimes be the best choice from a basic cost-benefit perspective, as will elevated rail, and both are useful to have in the tunnel construction toolbox for that reason.
23 April 2025
1 April 2025
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Their words
Dismissing discussion of AGI, human-level AI, transformative AI, superintelligence, etc. as “science fiction” should be seen as a sign of total unseriousness.
22 March 2025
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korrents.com
A strong track record in a technical field is only weak evidence that someone has good strategic judgment about AGI.Their words
Having a good research track record is some evidence of good big-picture takes about AGI, but it's weak evidence.
9 February 2025
3 February 2025
From one piece DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And for that reason, there's physical constraints to things like AGI, like recursive improvement to kill us all type stuff. For the physical reasons and for how humans have figured things out before, I'm not too worried about AI takeover.
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Their words
I think my personal definition of AGI is much simpler. I think language models are a form of AGI and all of this super powerful stuff is a next step that's great if we get these tools. But a language model has so much value in so many domains that it's a general intelligence to me.
From one piece DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The important thing about, hey, is cost a limiting factor here? My view is that we'll have really awesome intelligence, like AGI, before we have it permeate throughout the economy.
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Their words
There's this very good quote from Sam Altman who... He can be a hyperbeast sometimes, but one of the things he said, and I think I agree, is that superhuman persuasion will happen before superhuman intelligence, right? And if that's the case, then these things before we get this AGI ASI stuff, we can embed superhuman persuasion towards our ideal or whatever the ideal of the model maker is, right?
19 January 2025
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Their words
I think it's always going to be hard to pull off because I think Americans and their elected representatives don't want to provide a universal benefit. They want to provide a targeted benefit because they believe there's a moral component here.
9 November 2024
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Their words
A battery that’s discharging every day gets great utilization, but one that’s only there in case the sun doesn’t come up for two days in a row, barely gets used.
Solar and batteries for generic use casescaseyhandmer.wordpress.com
4 November 2024
16 October 2024
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Their words
The places to look are places that were hospitable and welcoming to human beings during the ice age. That, of course, includes the coastlines that are now underwater. Of course, it includes the Sahara Desert. Of course, it includes the Amazon rainforest as well.
7 October 2024
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The Dagger and the CoinTheir words
This is a worthy entry in the genre. It suffers a bit from extensive plot not about banking and characters who barely speak to dragons. But all of that irrelevant fluff makes it one of the most underrated fantasy series I’ve ever read.
26 September 2024
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korrents.com
A company that will not accept a project’s terms is free to go and use a more permissive project instead.Their words
If WP Engine wants to find another open source project with a more permissive license and no trademarks, they are free to do so; if they want to benefit from the WordPress community, then they need to respect WordPress trademark and IP.
31 August 2024
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
The Black CompanyTheir words
Mind candy military fantasy, in which Our Protagonists find themselves working as mercenaries for the Dark Lord's only-barely-less-evil ex-wife, on whom the narrator develops an unhealthy crush.
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
The White RoseTheir words
Mind candy military fantasy, in which Our Protagonists find themselves working as mercenaries for the Dark Lord's only-barely-less-evil ex-wife, on whom the narrator develops an unhealthy crush.
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Shadows LingerTheir words
Mind candy military fantasy, in which Our Protagonists find themselves working as mercenaries for the Dark Lord's only-barely-less-evil ex-wife, on whom the narrator develops an unhealthy crush.
21 July 2024
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Their words
Good project management is barely visible-it just feels like "things humming along."
22 June 2024
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Their words
In fact, even though growth in average infrastructure costs over time is documented, there is very little cross-national correlation between GDP per capita and per-km subway construction costs.
2 April 2024
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Their words
What is different about construction is the level of coordination that takes place: whereas in a car everything is carefully designed to tightly integrate together, in housing construction the work can be done (and often is) with surprisingly little coordination between the various trades.
18 March 2024
From one piece Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419 5 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And I’ve said for a long time that you think of a quadrant of slow timelines for the start of AGI, long timelines, and then a short takeoff or a fast takeoff. I think short timeline, slow takeoff is the safest quadrant and the one I’d most like us to be in. But I do want to make sure we get that slow takeoff.
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Their words
I used to love to speculate on that question. I have realized since that I think it’s very poorly formed, and that people use extremely different definitions for what AGI is. So I think it makes more sense to talk about when we’ll build systems that can do capability X or Y or Z, rather than when we fuzzily cross this one mile marker.
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Their words
In this case, and I think one of the things with our structure that we maybe should have thought about more than we did is that the board of a nonprofit has, unless you put other rules in place, quite a lot of power. They don’t really answer to anyone but themselves. And there’s ways in which that’s good, but what we’d really like is for the board of OpenAI to answer to the world as a whole, as much as that’s a practical thing.
+ 2 more
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Their words
The road to AGI should be a giant power struggle. The world should… Well, not should. I expect that to be the case.
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Their words
I continue to not want super-voting control over OpenAI. I never have. Never have had it, never wanted it. Even after all this craziness, I still don’t want it. I continue to think that no company should be making these decisions, and that we really need governments to put rules of the road in place.
20 February 2024
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korrents.com
About a dozen holdings captures nearly all the benefit of diversification; going to fifty adds almost nothing.Their words
I even recommend for individual investors to invest in a dozen companies, you don't get that much more benefit of diversification going from a dozen to 25 or even 50.
10 January 2024
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Their words
What I discovered by casting a wide net was that I have very little ability to predict how useful a call will be in advance.
5 January 2024
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Their words
But hierarchy is not intrinsically authoritarian. Hierarchy did not originate as a political structure that humans invented for controlling and dominating one another, it is in fact a property of self-organizing systems, and it emerges for the benefit of the subsystems.
26 October 2023
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Their words
Society's response, despite promising first steps, is incommensurate with the possibility of rapid, transformative progress that is expected by many experts. AI safety research is lagging. Present governance initiatives lack the mechanisms and institutions to prevent misuse and recklessness, and barely address autonomous systems.
25 October 2023
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Their words
Yet lime is a huge blind spot for economic historians, despite it increasing the productivity of what was still by far the largest portion of the economy: agriculture.
Age of Invention: Lessons from the Rise of Coalageofinvention.xyz
1 September 2023
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Their words
What we don't want to happen with AGI, we want to happen with synthetic biology. What we don't want to happen online and software with language, we want for it to happen with bio-based materials.
29 June 2023
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Their words
When I talked about will GPT12 be AGI, my answer is no. Of course not. I mean, cross-entropy loss is never going to get you there. You need probably RL in fancy environments in order to get something that would be considered AGI-like.
1 January 2023
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korrents.com
People who do not yet trust each other are better served by tightly limited ways to interact.Their words
Low trust players benefit from closed affordances.
10 June 2022
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korrents.com
There is no written plan for surviving AGI, and a world that was going to survive would have had one decades ago.Their words
Surviving worlds, by this point, and in fact several decades earlier, have a plan for how to survive.
1 June 2022
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Their words
I believe that, except in times of hyperinflation, the price level does not behave as an asset price but as the aggregate of billions of mostly backward-looking decisions, and that expectations of future primary balances have little effect on the price level today.
2 February 2022
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korrents.com
Any harm can in principle be outweighed by a small enough benefit delivered to a large enough number of people.Their words
In theory, any harm can be outweighed by something that benefits a large enough number of persons, even if it benefits them in a minor way.
19 June 2021
17 July 2020
Nothing matches.
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