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Peter Steinberger x.com
Astra on OC in a cloud session playing Doom with CUA. Not quite AGI yet, but probably beats fly brain.
The subject this post names, from the same vocabulary the directory files beliefs under, and the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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21 September
19 September
18 September
17 September
16 September
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korrents.com
The New Right’s inability to build alliances and coalitions will ultimately doom it as a nation-dismantling fringe.Their words
It’s this pathological inability to understand alliances and coalition-building that will ultimately doom the New Right. Like the far Left, this is a movement built to exclude and divide and splinter — both because of the querulous personalities of rightists themselves, and because of the intransigence of a racial ideology that abhors any impurity.
15 September
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korrents.com
Software should be fun.Their words
The final boss will be getting DOOM running where every pixel is its own terminal. Software should be fun.
14 September
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Their words
Now if they get scared of AGI, they'll slow down their own models.
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korrents.com
The p(abundance) outlook is far more likely than the heavily covered p(doom) discussion and deserves more engagement.Their words
The p(doom) discussion gets all the headlines, but the p(abundance) scenery is far more like and deserves much more engagement.
12 September
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Their words
This is the first time a debate over whether a model ‘was AGI’ felt non-silly. I do not think it is AGI, and I would warn against the dangers of using that label prematurely, but I would not laugh at you for disagreeing.
11 September
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Their words
most surveys find that the median AI researcher forecasts about a 5% chance of extinction or similar "doom" from AI, while the mean probability is much higher -- around 15-20% -- due to a smallish group who give very high probabilities of doom.
10 September
9 September
8 September
7 September
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korrents.com
Open source wins because agents can train on it and use it efficiently, as with Blender beating its competitors.Their words
Blender beats all its competitors because it's optimal in the most important dimension: agents can train on it and use it efficiently. OSS wins.
From one piece @fchollet on X 2 beliefs · x.com
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Their words
So I would not "declare AGI" until we have AI that is, at last, capable of invention -- conceptual breakthroughs, novel insights, new real-world technology, etc.
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korrents.com
The case for building AGI has always been framed around invention, such as curing cancer or solving fusion energy.Their words
The narrative around why building AGI was a good idea has always been about invention -- "it will cure cancer", "it will solve fusion energy", etc.
6 September
5 September
4 September
3 September
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korrents.com
AGI is not a finish line to be crossed but a smear with width, and we are already standing on it.Their words
some bits of AI are way across the finish line, some bits are like maybe in the middle of it. Who knew the line had dimension? The finish line is actually this sort of smear. And I think the best answer you can give is like we're on the smear.
31 August
28 August
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Their words
I think it is dangerous to narrativize your life, going around acting like you're in a story with beats and arcs and trajectories.
24 August
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Their words
One is yes, I agree with you that this sort of behavior, doom scrolling, etc. occurs, but I think the evidence that there are dopamine hits when you're doing this isn't really very strong.
22 August
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Mixed onrcmnd.app
Sisu 2: Road to RevengeTheir words
LAST WATCHED: SISU 2: ROAD TO REVENGE (2025) is, sadly, a more conventional film than the original. Still lots of bloody fun, but too similar to the original in its beats to be as enjoyable, trying harder to be “emotional” while losing some of the little textual depth that made the first film surprising.
20 August
17 August
14 August
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Their words
But what I learned was that cute trumped everything. It just um teddy bears, anything heart-shaped, the kiss mark was the best seller of all time.
12 August
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Their words
we see that the across the board the single PIO like pre-trained PIO7 model matches or outperforms the fine-tuned specialists that were developed with reinforcement learning post-training for those downstream tasks.
11 August
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Their words
I would say that I expect like full automation of AR&D perhaps somewhere around like 2031 2030 and then getting to like the like beats all humans on the job milestone. Maybe I expect median around 2033
10 August
From one piece Using AI to Increase Your Intelligence & Enrich Humanity | Dr. Fei-Fei Li 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So this speaks of a very important fact that um AI learns from patterns. When the patterns are not abundant, then we have to be careful. We have to know how to use AI or how not to use AI.
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korrents.com
The worst outcome of AI for young people is that it takes away their agency and their motivation to learn.Their words
The absolute bad outcome is that our young generation, their agency and human level motivation of learning and living is taken away by tools. So doom scrolling, passive watching of shorts, all this are not helping agency, human agency.
2 August
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Their words
you can have one very senior PM across more things and they can be more efficient than having, you know, three relatively entry-level PMs.
31 July
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Their words
That's a hell of a lot slower than knowing it in cognitive L1 cache. And you can have way more round trips in your brain than you can, you know, muttering through, you know, super whisper or typing it out or whatever.
28 July
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Their words
but I would I would bet that this generally will cut against many years of experience in favor of people who have a lot of fluency with the tools.
15 July
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Their words
And at the end of the day, they're all like different ways to pass tokens into a model and ask it to produce usually some structured output. And understanding that is a lot more powerful than trying to learn memory and trying to pick some agent framework off the shelf and some memory framework off the shelf.
9 July
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korrents.com
The quality of the context given to an AI matters more than the model's inherent capability.Their words
The quality of your context beats the cleverness of the model.
7 July
3 July
2 July
29 June
21 June
11 June
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Their words
I think there's a 25% chance of AGI by 2027, a 50% chance by 2034, and a 75% chance by 2045.
9 June
4 June
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Their words
I would prioritize trying to index, but just given how fast AI could, you know, hit the world. But, um I definitely wouldn't just rely on that because like it could the the sort of um messy middle type cases or the just a long timelines cases on which like you we don't get it anything like AGI all that soon.
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Their words
So, I think there is a world where it is concentrated, in which case it's going to be really hard to index AGI. There is another world where it is not It's electricity, then like basically every company has access to AGI. So, you just buy you use buy the index. So, like, you know, Nigeria just needs to buy the index.
2 June
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Their words
We made this something useful for adults and we had this user pay model that could monetize your engagement instead of trying to show you an ad and getting you to leave the game to go somewhere else. It actually the more engaged you were, the more likely you were to, you know, spend money.
13 May
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Their words
So, if we're checking 99% instead of 100%, well, heck, that's better than the 0% that JavaScript checked, right? And it gives you like language features that no other languages can provide because they can't get to 100%.
13 April
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Their words
Backlash is also the inevitable consequence of AGI-pilling the nation.
6 April
From one piece The term “AGI” is almost useless at this point 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Today’s best AI systems are good enough that they’re now inside the fuzzy conceptual cloud of “AGI-ish”: that is, they’ve surpassed some people’s definitions of AGI, while falling well short of others’.
The term “AGI” is almost useless at this pointhelentoner.substack.com
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Their words
This makes it likely that there could be big gaps between when different definitions of AGI are fulfilled.
The term “AGI” is almost useless at this pointhelentoner.substack.com
1 April
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Their words
that was the most brilliant thing because by doing the hardest thing first once you launch that everything else is downhill from there
23 March
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korrents.com
Asked when an AI could build a billion-dollar business on its own: AGI has already arrived.Their words
I think it's now. I think we've achieved AGI.
13 March
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korrents.com
You do not have to believe in AGI to believe in the timelines on which the United States wins the semiconductor race.Their words
But I don't know like I don't know what fast timelines means, right? Like I I like don't think you have to believe in AGI to have the timelines where the US wins.
13 February
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Their words
but it's not an infinitely compelling product, and I don't think even AGI or powerful AI or country of geniuses in a data center will be an infinitely compelling product. It will be a compelling product enough maybe to get three or five or 10x a year growth even when you're in the hundreds of billions of dollars, which is extremely hard to do and has never been done in history before, but not infinitely fast.
1 February
20 December 2025
25 November 2025
From one piece Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
A human being, a human being lacks a huge amount of knowledge. Instead, we rely on continual learning. We rely on continual learning.
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korrents.com
The whole problem of AI and AGI is the power, and nothing else about it is the problem.Their words
Indeed, the whole problem, what is the problem of AI and AGI? The whole problem is the power. The whole problem is the power. When the power is really big, what's going to happen?
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Clearing the AirTheir words
If you want a book that explains the climate challenge without doom or denial, Clearing the Air is a must-read.
8 November 2025
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korrents.com
Automation is a lie: every automated thing needs a human on top of it making sure it is working.Their words
That's great, but I don't think it can replace a human poking at virtual machines; my experience with EC2 is that images break in all sorts of wild ways, and nothing beats a human for saying "huh, I have no idea what's going on here but something seems weird".
23 October 2025
17 October 2025
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korrents.com
Quietly dropping physical work from the definition of AGI is a major concession, not a clarification.Their words
Now, number one, the first concession that people make all the time is they just take out all the physical stuff because we're just talking about digital knowledge work. I feel like that's a pretty major concession compared to the original definition which was like any task a human can do.
16 October 2025
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korrents.com
In a product review a prototype beats a static mock, and a static mock beats a lot of words.Their words
at least my product reviews and uh product conversations, I feel like prototypes beat static mocks and static mocks beat lots of words.
12 September 2025
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Their words
And I think we'll see the same thing with automation where uh basically robot plus human is much better than just human or just robot. Uh and and that just like makes total sense. It also makes it much easier to get all the technology bootstrapped because when it's robot plus human, now there's a lot more potential for the robot to like actually learn on the job, acquire new skills.
25 August 2025
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Lovedrcmnd.app
GhosttyTheir words
VS Code’s terminal is too unstable, had plenty freezes when pasting in large amounts of text. Nothing beats Ghostty.
18 August 2025
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Their words
I don't think all parts of the economy can absorb intelligence equally. So let's just say we develop fairly generalized super intelligence. I always use the analogy like you can invent a lot of drugs, but if clinical trials still take a long time, you're not necessarily going to get new therapies rapidly.
30 July 2025
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Their words, before
This means that working on neural networks is NOT getting us closer to AGI, except indirectly.
Their words now
It’s become very difficult for me to maintain the belief in the stupidity of ChatGPT when every time I laugh at it, it ends up ridiculing me 6 months later.
23 July 2025
From one piece Demis Hassabis: Future of AI, Simulating Reality, Physics and Video Games | Lex Fridman Podcast #475 5 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
My estimate is sort of 50% chance by in the next five years, so by 2030 let's say. So I think there's a good chance that that could happen.
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Their words
And maybe also make the system available to a few hundred of the world's top experts, the Terence Taos of each subject area and give them a month or two and see if they can find an obvious flaw in the system. And if they can't, then I think you can be pretty confident we have a fully general system.
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korrents.com
Quoting a number for P(doom) is a ridiculous notion, because it implies a precision that nobody actually has.Their words
Well, look, I don't have a P-Doom number. The reason I don't is because I think it would imply a level of precision that is not there. So I don't know how people are getting their P-Doom numbers. I think it's a little bit of ridiculous notion because what I would say is it's definitely non-zero and it's probably non-negligible.
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korrents.com
The last steps to AGI should be taken by a CERN-style international research project, not a Manhattan Project.Their words
I hope we'll end up with something more collaborative if needed, more like a CERN project where it's research-focused and the best minds in the world come together to carefully complete the final steps and make sure it's responsibly done before deploying it to the world.
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korrents.com
Scaling what we already have, with no further breakthroughs, will be enough to reach AGI.Their words
And so we don't know, I would say it's kind of 50/50 whether new things are needed or whether the scaling the existing stuff is going to be enough.
15 June 2025
10 June 2025
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korrents.com
A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject.Their words
It follows that a true AGI with full, human-level autonomy is inconceivable in the Kantian sense without also gaining our recognition as a moral subject.
7 June 2025
From one piece A knockout blow for LLMs? 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The vision of AGI I have always had is one that combines the strengths of humans with the strength of machines, overcoming the weaknesses of humans.
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Their words
What the Apple paper shows, most fundamentally, regardless of how you define AGI, is that LLMs are no substitute for good well-specified conventional algorithms.
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korrents.com
Anyone who thinks large language models are a direct route to transformative AGI is kidding themselves.Their words
But anybody who thinks LLMs are a direct route to the sort AGI that could fundamentally transform society for the good is kidding themselves.
5 June 2025
From one piece Sundar Pichai: CEO of Google and Alphabet | Lex Fridman Podcast #471 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
the other thing I think people don’t often talk about is probability of doom without AI. So there’s all these other ways that humans can destroy themselves and it’s very possible, at least I believe so, that AI will help us become smarter, kinder to each other, more efficient.
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Their words
I would say my p(doom) is about 10%.
30 April 2025
23 April 2025
6 April 2025
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korrents.com
A humanoid robot is the wrong tool on a factory floor, because a machine specialised in the task beats it.Their words
They are not useful in industrial environments where, if a humanoid robot can do it, an industrial machine which is specialized in the task can do it even better.
1 April 2025
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Their words
Dismissing discussion of AGI, human-level AI, transformative AI, superintelligence, etc. as “science fiction” should be seen as a sign of total unseriousness.
22 March 2025
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korrents.com
A strong track record in a technical field is only weak evidence that someone has good strategic judgment about AGI.Their words
Having a good research track record is some evidence of good big-picture takes about AGI, but it's weak evidence.
16 March 2025
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Their words
"Direction is more important than magnitude"-it's usually better to have a lower-velocity project that works on the right things, than a higher-velocity one that's pointed at the wrong goal.
12 February 2025
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Their words
The potential end of USAID is an unfolding public health and humanitarian disaster, but it does not permanently doom the task of growth—in large part because these aid flows were far too small to begin with.
9 February 2025
3 February 2025
From one piece DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And for that reason, there's physical constraints to things like AGI, like recursive improvement to kill us all type stuff. For the physical reasons and for how humans have figured things out before, I'm not too worried about AI takeover.
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Their words
I think my personal definition of AGI is much simpler. I think language models are a form of AGI and all of this super powerful stuff is a next step that's great if we get these tools. But a language model has so much value in so many domains that it's a general intelligence to me.
From one piece DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The important thing about, hey, is cost a limiting factor here? My view is that we'll have really awesome intelligence, like AGI, before we have it permeate throughout the economy.
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Their words
There's this very good quote from Sam Altman who... He can be a hyperbeast sometimes, but one of the things he said, and I think I agree, is that superhuman persuasion will happen before superhuman intelligence, right? And if that's the case, then these things before we get this AGI ASI stuff, we can embed superhuman persuasion towards our ideal or whatever the ideal of the model maker is, right?
31 December 2024
19 August 2024
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Likedrcmnd.app
Masters of DoomTheir words
There's a closely-related genre of great books (like Masters of Doom and Show-Stopper) that cover important projects in the industry's history.
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Likedrcmnd.app
Show-Stopper!Their words
There's a closely-related genre of great books (like Masters of Doom and Show-Stopper) that cover important projects in the industry's history.
1 July 2024
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
The Wages of DestructionTheir words
Some audiobook recommendations: The Story of Civilization by Durant Iliad (Penguin Edition) The Road to Serfdom by Hayek American Caesar by Manchester Masters of Doom by Kushner The Wages of Destruction by Tooze The Storm of Steel by Junger The Guns of August by Tuchman
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
The IliadTheir words
Some audiobook recommendations: The Story of Civilization by Durant Iliad (Penguin Edition) The Road to Serfdom by Hayek American Caesar by Manchester Masters of Doom by Kushner The Wages of Destruction by Tooze The Storm of Steel by Junger The Guns of August by Tuchman
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
The Guns of AugustTheir words
Some audiobook recommendations: The Story of Civilization by Durant Iliad (Penguin Edition) The Road to Serfdom by Hayek American Caesar by Manchester Masters of Doom by Kushner The Wages of Destruction by Tooze The Storm of Steel by Junger The Guns of August by Tuchman
+ 2 more
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Storm of SteelTheir words
Some audiobook recommendations: The Story of Civilization by Durant Iliad (Penguin Edition) The Road to Serfdom by Hayek American Caesar by Manchester Masters of Doom by Kushner The Wages of Destruction by Tooze The Storm of Steel by Junger The Guns of August by Tuchman
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
American CaesarTheir words
Some audiobook recommendations: The Story of Civilization by Durant Iliad (Penguin Edition) The Road to Serfdom by Hayek American Caesar by Manchester Masters of Doom by Kushner The Wages of Destruction by Tooze The Storm of Steel by Junger The Guns of August by Tuchman
19 June 2024
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korrents.com
Vector embeddings will not solve search: a decades-old term-frequency algorithm still beats most of them at ranking.Their words
There is an algorithm called BM25 precisely for this, which is a more sophisticated version of TF-IDF. TF-IDF is term frequency times inverse document frequency, a very old-school information retrieval system that just works actually really well even today. And BM25 is a more sophisticated version of that, that is still beating most embeddings on ranking.
25 May 2024
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Their words
if I just try to do half-an-hour and then later in the day I do half-an-hour, I won’t retain that information as long as if I do half-an-hour today and half-an-hour one week from now. So doing that extra spacing should help me retain the information better.
22 April 2024
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Their words
This is the 2001 monolith hypothesis. I would be less surprised to find a quiescent alien artifact in our solar system than I would to catch a radio signal from an intelligent civilization.
18 March 2024
From one piece Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I used to love to speculate on that question. I have realized since that I think it’s very poorly formed, and that people use extremely different definitions for what AGI is. So I think it makes more sense to talk about when we’ll build systems that can do capability X or Y or Z, rather than when we fuzzily cross this one mile marker.
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Their words
In this case, and I think one of the things with our structure that we maybe should have thought about more than we did is that the board of a nonprofit has, unless you put other rules in place, quite a lot of power. They don’t really answer to anyone but themselves. And there’s ways in which that’s good, but what we’d really like is for the board of OpenAI to answer to the world as a whole, as much as that’s a practical thing.
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Their words
The road to AGI should be a giant power struggle. The world should… Well, not should. I expect that to be the case.
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Their words
I continue to not want super-voting control over OpenAI. I never have. Never have had it, never wanted it. Even after all this craziness, I still don’t want it. I continue to think that no company should be making these decisions, and that we really need governments to put rules of the road in place.
28 September 2023
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Their words
So, in addition to being photorealistic, it's also actually much more bandwidth efficient than transmitting a full video or especially a 3D immersive video of a whole scene like this.
1 September 2023
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Their words
What we don't want to happen with AGI, we want to happen with synthetic biology. What we don't want to happen online and software with language, we want for it to happen with bio-based materials.
29 June 2023
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Their words
When I talked about will GPT12 be AGI, my answer is no. Of course not. I mean, cross-entropy loss is never going to get you there. You need probably RL in fancy environments in order to get something that would be considered AGI-like.
10 June 2022
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korrents.com
There is no written plan for surviving AGI, and a world that was going to survive would have had one decades ago.Their words
Surviving worlds, by this point, and in fact several decades earlier, have a plan for how to survive.
19 June 2021
22 December 2020
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Lovedrcmnd.app
TeraCopyTheir words
when I want to move a LOT of files as FAST as possible, nothing beats TeraCopy, an app that does just that - move stuff fast. The queue control is excellent.
2 October 2020
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Usesrcmnd.app
Dell UltraSharp 38 Curved USB-C Hub Monitor - U3821DWTheir words
Dell UltraSharp 38 Curved USB-C Hub Monitor - U3821DW - A curved widescreen monitor I purchased a few years ago with my work's technology allowance. One wide screen beats two screens for everything. Try it.
17 July 2020
Nothing matches.
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