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Sam Altman Blog
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21 September
20 September
19 September
18 September
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korrents.com
The current preference cascade on pacing the AI frontier is insufficient to ensure survival.Their words
What we must realize is that the current preference cascade, on the need to Pace the Frontier, is insufficient. If we are to make it out of this alive, we will have to do better.
The Preference Cascade Is Only Getting Startedthezvi.substack.com
17 September
14 September
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Their words
To ensure that, we need ways to ensure that alignment and safety techniques stay ahead of progress in model capabilities.
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Their words
Now if they get scared of AGI, they'll slow down their own models.
13 September
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Their words
The only way to avoid extreme power concentration is to ensure we have multiple independent providers of frontier AI models, including open-source options.
12 September
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Their words
This is the first time a debate over whether a model ‘was AGI’ felt non-silly. I do not think it is AGI, and I would warn against the dangers of using that label prematurely, but I would not laugh at you for disagreeing.
11 September
10 September
9 September
7 September
From one piece @fchollet on X 2 beliefs · x.com
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Their words
So I would not "declare AGI" until we have AI that is, at last, capable of invention -- conceptual breakthroughs, novel insights, new real-world technology, etc.
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korrents.com
The case for building AGI has always been framed around invention, such as curing cancer or solving fusion energy.Their words
The narrative around why building AGI was a good idea has always been about invention -- "it will cure cancer", "it will solve fusion energy", etc.
6 September
5 September
4 September
3 September
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korrents.com
AGI is not a finish line to be crossed but a smear with width, and we are already standing on it.Their words
some bits of AI are way across the finish line, some bits are like maybe in the middle of it. Who knew the line had dimension? The finish line is actually this sort of smear. And I think the best answer you can give is like we're on the smear.
1 September
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Their words
Writing is thinking, and we are interested in your own thoughts and observations, not a sharp, one-sentence observation turned into three paragraphs of blob text by an LLM.
29 August
20 August
18 August
17 August
12 August
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Their words
So, you might be surprised to hear that most state-of-the-art foundation models for robotics have no memory or no context. They're just operating on the current sensor observations, the current camera readings, uh, and predicting actions based off of that.
11 August
29 July
14 July
12 July
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Their words
new laws are like code that is pushed live to production without even being read (let alone tested), often in the face of tremendous opposition, affecting millions of citizens, with minimal monitoring to ensure they’re producing the desired results, an extremely slow customer feedback cycle, and few ways to truly opt out.
8 July
11 June
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Their words
I think there's a 25% chance of AGI by 2027, a 50% chance by 2034, and a 75% chance by 2045.
9 June
4 June
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Their words
I would prioritize trying to index, but just given how fast AI could, you know, hit the world. But, um I definitely wouldn't just rely on that because like it could the the sort of um messy middle type cases or the just a long timelines cases on which like you we don't get it anything like AGI all that soon.
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Their words
So, I think there is a world where it is concentrated, in which case it's going to be really hard to index AGI. There is another world where it is not It's electricity, then like basically every company has access to AGI. So, you just buy you use buy the index. So, like, you know, Nigeria just needs to buy the index.
28 May
13 April
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Their words
Backlash is also the inevitable consequence of AGI-pilling the nation.
12 April
6 April
From one piece The term “AGI” is almost useless at this point 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Today’s best AI systems are good enough that they’re now inside the fuzzy conceptual cloud of “AGI-ish”: that is, they’ve surpassed some people’s definitions of AGI, while falling well short of others’.
The term “AGI” is almost useless at this pointhelentoner.substack.com
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Their words
This makes it likely that there could be big gaps between when different definitions of AGI are fulfilled.
The term “AGI” is almost useless at this pointhelentoner.substack.com
28 March
23 March
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korrents.com
Asked when an AI could build a billion-dollar business on its own: AGI has already arrived.Their words
I think it's now. I think we've achieved AGI.
13 March
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korrents.com
You do not have to believe in AGI to believe in the timelines on which the United States wins the semiconductor race.Their words
But I don't know like I don't know what fast timelines means, right? Like I I like don't think you have to believe in AGI to have the timelines where the US wins.
13 February
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Their words
but it's not an infinitely compelling product, and I don't think even AGI or powerful AI or country of geniuses in a data center will be an infinitely compelling product. It will be a compelling product enough maybe to get three or five or 10x a year growth even when you're in the hundreds of billions of dollars, which is extremely hard to do and has never been done in history before, but not infinitely fast.
6 February
1 February
1 January
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Their words
Few will deeply read as many works of literature across the Western canon as Barzun did, given his exceptionally long career in academia, but From Dawn to Decadence grants the humble reader an extraordinary vantage, thanks to Barzun’s vast corpus of knowledge and his perspicacious observations about cultural currents across half a millennium.
8 December 2025
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Their words, before
we will see batteries aggressively displace transmission as the most cost-effective way to ensure continuity of electricity supply, leading to an eventual pruning of the grid and drastic reduction in the average distance that power travels between production and consumption, even as the average time that power is stored increases.
Their words now
Do we need to drastically expand the grid in order to metabolize renewables? No.
1 December 2025
25 November 2025
From one piece Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
A human being, a human being lacks a huge amount of knowledge. Instead, we rely on continual learning. We rely on continual learning.
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korrents.com
The whole problem of AI and AGI is the power, and nothing else about it is the problem.Their words
Indeed, the whole problem, what is the problem of AI and AGI? The whole problem is the power. The whole problem is the power. When the power is really big, what's going to happen?
13 November 2025
17 October 2025
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korrents.com
Quietly dropping physical work from the definition of AGI is a major concession, not a clarification.Their words
Now, number one, the first concession that people make all the time is they just take out all the physical stuff because we're just talking about digital knowledge work. I feel like that's a pretty major concession compared to the original definition which was like any task a human can do.
18 August 2025
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Their words
I don't think all parts of the economy can absorb intelligence equally. So let's just say we develop fairly generalized super intelligence. I always use the analogy like you can invent a lot of drugs, but if clinical trials still take a long time, you're not necessarily going to get new therapies rapidly.
11 August 2025
2 August 2025
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Close to the MachineTheir words
Ellen Ullman's Close to the Machine is a memoir I couldn't believe I hadn't read earlier. Many of her observations about engineering culture feel as relevant today as when she was a programmer in the 1980s
30 July 2025
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Their words, before
This means that working on neural networks is NOT getting us closer to AGI, except indirectly.
Their words now
It’s become very difficult for me to maintain the belief in the stupidity of ChatGPT when every time I laugh at it, it ends up ridiculing me 6 months later.
23 July 2025
From one piece Demis Hassabis: Future of AI, Simulating Reality, Physics and Video Games | Lex Fridman Podcast #475 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
My estimate is sort of 50% chance by in the next five years, so by 2030 let's say. So I think there's a good chance that that could happen.
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Their words
And maybe also make the system available to a few hundred of the world's top experts, the Terence Taos of each subject area and give them a month or two and see if they can find an obvious flaw in the system. And if they can't, then I think you can be pretty confident we have a fully general system.
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korrents.com
The last steps to AGI should be taken by a CERN-style international research project, not a Manhattan Project.Their words
I hope we'll end up with something more collaborative if needed, more like a CERN project where it's research-focused and the best minds in the world come together to carefully complete the final steps and make sure it's responsibly done before deploying it to the world.
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korrents.com
Scaling what we already have, with no further breakthroughs, will be enough to reach AGI.Their words
And so we don't know, I would say it's kind of 50/50 whether new things are needed or whether the scaling the existing stuff is going to be enough.
15 June 2025
10 June 2025
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korrents.com
A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject.Their words
It follows that a true AGI with full, human-level autonomy is inconceivable in the Kantian sense without also gaining our recognition as a moral subject.
7 June 2025
From one piece A knockout blow for LLMs? 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The vision of AGI I have always had is one that combines the strengths of humans with the strength of machines, overcoming the weaknesses of humans.
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Their words
What the Apple paper shows, most fundamentally, regardless of how you define AGI, is that LLMs are no substitute for good well-specified conventional algorithms.
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korrents.com
Anyone who thinks large language models are a direct route to transformative AGI is kidding themselves.Their words
But anybody who thinks LLMs are a direct route to the sort AGI that could fundamentally transform society for the good is kidding themselves.
24 May 2025
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Their words
I mean, if ever there is, I think, a mistake that’s Britain and France should’ve been a bit more into realpolitiks than they were. It’s such an opportunity to ensure that, to snooker the Third Reich, and they don’t take it.
21 May 2025
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korrents.com
Means-testing the winter fuel payment is a tough decision that has to be taken, and it should stand.Their words, before
No Prime Minister wants to do what we have to do in relation to the winter fuel allowance, but we have to take the tough decision to stabilise our economy to ensure that we can grow it for the future.
Their words now
However, I recognise that people are still feeling the pressure of the cost of living crisis, including pensioners, and as the economy improves, we want to make sure that people feel those improvements each day as their lives go forward. That is why we want to ensure that more pensioners are eligible for winter fuel payments as we go forward.
23 April 2025
1 April 2025
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Their words
Dismissing discussion of AGI, human-level AI, transformative AI, superintelligence, etc. as “science fiction” should be seen as a sign of total unseriousness.
22 March 2025
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korrents.com
A strong track record in a technical field is only weak evidence that someone has good strategic judgment about AGI.Their words
Having a good research track record is some evidence of good big-picture takes about AGI, but it's weak evidence.
3 February 2025
From one piece DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And for that reason, there's physical constraints to things like AGI, like recursive improvement to kill us all type stuff. For the physical reasons and for how humans have figured things out before, I'm not too worried about AI takeover.
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Their words
I think my personal definition of AGI is much simpler. I think language models are a form of AGI and all of this super powerful stuff is a next step that's great if we get these tools. But a language model has so much value in so many domains that it's a general intelligence to me.
From one piece DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The important thing about, hey, is cost a limiting factor here? My view is that we'll have really awesome intelligence, like AGI, before we have it permeate throughout the economy.
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Their words
There's this very good quote from Sam Altman who... He can be a hyperbeast sometimes, but one of the things he said, and I think I agree, is that superhuman persuasion will happen before superhuman intelligence, right? And if that's the case, then these things before we get this AGI ASI stuff, we can embed superhuman persuasion towards our ideal or whatever the ideal of the model maker is, right?
16 December 2024
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Likedrcmnd.app
Not everyone gets a trophyTheir words
Tips and observations on how to manage the Millenial generation better. Some of these I found insightful, some were less of a surprise.
3 December 2024
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Likedrcmnd.app
Engineering in Plain SightTheir words
One of the coolest aspects of Engineering in Plain Sight is how it ties everyday observations to larger engineering principles.
8 July 2024
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korrents.com
The thing open source can actually sell is not the code but access to its maintainers’ attention and expertise.Their words
Clients still pay a fixed monthly retainer to ensure the professional maintenance of the whole portfolio, and to get access to the expertise of all of Geomys’ maintainers.
19 June 2024
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Their words
The principle in Perplexity is you’re not supposed to say anything that you don’t retrieve, which is even more powerful than RAG because RAG just says, “Okay, use this additional context and write an answer.” But we say, “Don’t use anything more than that too.” That way we ensure a factual grounding.
8 May 2024
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Their words
That makes it essential to ensure that all synthetic DNA orders are screened to determine whether they contain hazardous sequences, which should be shipped only to legitimate researchers whose work has been approved by a biosafety authority.
7 May 2024
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Their words
We're advocating that companies handle risk from scheming models in a similar way–striving to ensure that they'll be safe even if their alignment efforts fail to prevent models from scheming.
19 April 2024
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Their words
Copyleft does not impose restrictions, but it does impose obligations. The obligations exist to guarantee rights to the users of the software – in other words, to ensure freedoms.
18 March 2024
From one piece Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I used to love to speculate on that question. I have realized since that I think it’s very poorly formed, and that people use extremely different definitions for what AGI is. So I think it makes more sense to talk about when we’ll build systems that can do capability X or Y or Z, rather than when we fuzzily cross this one mile marker.
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Their words
In this case, and I think one of the things with our structure that we maybe should have thought about more than we did is that the board of a nonprofit has, unless you put other rules in place, quite a lot of power. They don’t really answer to anyone but themselves. And there’s ways in which that’s good, but what we’d really like is for the board of OpenAI to answer to the world as a whole, as much as that’s a practical thing.
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Their words
The road to AGI should be a giant power struggle. The world should… Well, not should. I expect that to be the case.
+ 1 more
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Their words
I continue to not want super-voting control over OpenAI. I never have. Never have had it, never wanted it. Even after all this craziness, I still don’t want it. I continue to think that no company should be making these decisions, and that we really need governments to put rules of the road in place.
13 March 2024
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Their words
Yield-boosting measures, however, always need to be thoughtfully paired with other measures to ensure that outcomes—environmental as well as social—are acceptable at the local level.
1 September 2023
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Their words
What we don't want to happen with AGI, we want to happen with synthetic biology. What we don't want to happen online and software with language, we want for it to happen with bio-based materials.
29 June 2023
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Their words
When I talked about will GPT12 be AGI, my answer is no. Of course not. I mean, cross-entropy loss is never going to get you there. You need probably RL in fancy environments in order to get something that would be considered AGI-like.
7 April 2023
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korrents.com
A designer’s obligation is to satisfy real human needs rather than to manufacture needs that pay.Their words
Every team should ensure they are fulfilling real human needs over merely inducing needs for profit.
17 February 2023
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Their words
The biggest issue is probably that we don’t control neutral networks enough to be able to ensure AI doesn’t harm humans. We can’t even control AI to not reveal internal prompts.
15 July 2022
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Their words
In order to move this army or sustain it in place it is thus necessary to ensure a massive and relatively continuous supply of food to the army. Failure to do that will result in the army falling apart long before it comes anywhere close to the enemy.
10 June 2022
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korrents.com
There is no written plan for surviving AGI, and a world that was going to survive would have had one decades ago.Their words
Surviving worlds, by this point, and in fact several decades earlier, have a plan for how to survive.
1 June 2022
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korrents.com
Quantitative rules are not a reliable tool for ensuring government debt sustainability.Their words
I am skeptical of the use of quantitative rules to ensure debt sustainability.
19 June 2021
17 July 2020
Nothing matches.
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