Lawrence Freedman
Emeritus professor of war studies at King's College London; wrote Strategy: A History and Command, and writes about the wars in Ukraine and Gaza as they happen.
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Where they publish
Beliefs
Korrents What they believe 14 beliefs — each backed by an exact quote.
Each is a — compiled by korrents.com, not by them: the one-line wordings are korrents', the quotes are theirs.
Recent
When AI-assisted targeting goes wrong the failure lies in the strategic concept it is serving, not in the technology.
The problem again was not reliance upon AI but that it was supporting a model of warfare with which the United States had been working for some decades, one that prioritized the rapid elimination of enemy capabilities.
AI and the New Fog of War Said 17 Aug 2026
Better battlefield information pushes commanders towards the strategies that can exploit that clarity, even when those are not the strategies that meet the political objective.
The greater the confidence in a clear view of the battlespace, the greater the reliance on military strategies that could benefit from that clarity, even though they might not be the best ones to meet political objectives.
AI and the New Fog of War Said 17 Aug 2026
The scale of civilian deaths in Gaza followed from Israeli leaders' strategic choices, not from the AI used to pick the targets.
The high levels of Palestinian civilian casualties reflected the strategic choices made by the Israeli leadership.
AI and the New Fog of War Said 17 Aug 2026
Show 11 more
The fog of war has changed form: a shortage of reliable information has been replaced by information that is plentiful but contradictory, dated and manipulated.
In Clausewitz’s time, the problem was a scarcity of reliable information; now the information is plentiful, but it can be contradictory, dated, manipulated, and excessive.
AI and the New Fog of War Said 17 Aug 2026
Enemy manipulation of a whole society's information environment is unlikely ever to be decisive in a war, because shaping another society's perceptions is genuinely hard.
This is not to be complacent about the risks, but it is to urge caution when assuming that shifting the perceptions of other societies will ever be straightforward.
AI and the New Fog of War Said 17 Aug 2026
The West is not doing Ukraine a favour by helping it resist Russia; Ukraine is doing the West a favour.
The West is not doing Ukraine a favour by helping it resist aggression; it is Ukraine doing the West a favour.
'As Long as it Takes': What does it mean to commit to Ukraine's security? Said 10 Oct 2025
NATO enlargement was driven by the demand of the countries that wanted in, not by an alliance pushing east.
Enlargement was demand and not supply led.
'As Long as it Takes': What does it mean to commit to Ukraine's security? Said 10 Oct 2025
NATO's Article 5 carries no automatic obligation to fight, and it is still the gold standard for a security guarantee.
Despite its lack of automaticity this remains the gold standard for security guarantees.
'As Long as it Takes': What does it mean to commit to Ukraine's security? Said 10 Oct 2025
What makes a security guarantee credible is an alliance that is active in peacetime, not the wording of the treaty.
It works because it is an active alliance, and not left dormant until an emergency arises.
'As Long as it Takes': What does it mean to commit to Ukraine's security? Said 10 Oct 2025
The 'coalition of the willing' for Ukraine is not a security guarantee and should stop being described as one.
In all of this what may have been missed is that the plan now connected with a coalition of the willing is not a security guarantee.
'As Long as it Takes': What does it mean to commit to Ukraine's security? Said 10 Oct 2025
Ukraine is becoming a de facto member of NATO without ever formally joining it.
Ukraine is becoming a de facto member of NATO.
'As Long as it Takes': What does it mean to commit to Ukraine's security? Said 10 Oct 2025
Ukraine is defending Europe's borders, not only its own.
When the Ukrainians say that they are defending Europe’s borders they are correct.
'As Long as it Takes': What does it mean to commit to Ukraine's security? Said 10 Oct 2025
Putin set out to demilitarise Ukraine and has achieved the opposite.
Recall that one of Putin’s objectives in 2022 was to ‘demilitarise’ Ukraine. He has achieved the opposite.
'As Long as it Takes': What does it mean to commit to Ukraine's security? Said 10 Oct 2025
'As long as it takes' lacks urgency, and it is a formula available to Ukraine's allies precisely because they are not the ones doing the fighting.
As a formula ‘as long as it takes’ lacks urgency. It is an option for the allies precisely because they are not doing the fighting.
'As Long as it Takes': What does it mean to commit to Ukraine's security? Said 10 Oct 2025
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