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A Russian saying on nostalgia: "The past is more unpredictable than the future."
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20 September
19 September
17 September
16 September
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korrents.com
The climate impact from NVIDIA's AI products in 2025 is comparable to that of a major state-owned coal company.Their words
we produced our own conservative estimate, finding that the climate impact from 2025's use of NVIDIA'S AI products is on par with the state-owned Russian Coal company.
15 September
14 September
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korrents.com
The more one believes AI may cause unspecified unpredictable problems, the stronger the case for state control of it.Their words
The more we believe that IA may cause non-specified and unpredictable problems, the stronger the argument for its control by the state.
11 September
9 September
7 September
6 September
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Their words
The US military is being run by a group that apes the Russians and not the Ukrainians—when we have in front of us one of the best statements of command principles I have ever seen from the latter.
5 September
2 September
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Their words
the Trump administration's deferential posture towards Russia and China has alienated allies. But on the other hand, it has gained the United States nothing in the way of strategic stability.
So How Is The Concert of Trump Going?danieldrezner.substack.com
1 September
30 August
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Their words
While Western export bans have severed Russia from much of the auto market, they have not tempered the demand for brand-name SUVs and trucks. That has given rise to a sophisticated network of criminals that steals cars, hides them in shipping containers and sends them to Russia, often by way of the Middle East
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Their words
However senseless it is, American rhetoric of the non-existence of Canada is concerning, because it resembles the way the Kremlin spoke about Ukraine, and rightly reminds Canada that their sovereignty is indeed the issue.
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korrents.com
Russia's 2026 summer offensive failed: it took almost no ground while losing more soldiers than Russia can recruit.Their words
What we are seeing is a summer offensive of failure.
26 August
From one piece On European hypocrisy and warmongering 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The Nordic-Baltic warmongering under the current conditions is therefore (i) irresponsible, (ii) hypocritical, (iii) immoral, and (iv) flirts with a disaster of immense proportions.
On European hypocrisy and warmongeringbranko2f7.substack.com
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korrents.com
Small European states can demand a war with Russia only because they assume somebody else will fight it.Their words
It is also hypocritical because it is based on the assumption that somebody else (in this case, the United States) will fight for them.
On European hypocrisy and warmongeringbranko2f7.substack.com
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Their words
Such, indeed fragile, peace not only puts an end to today’s carnage, but leaves open a possibility of eventual long-term solution between Russia and Ukraine.
On European hypocrisy and warmongeringbranko2f7.substack.com
24 August
23 August
From one piece Weekend Update #199: Ukraine's Campaign Against Russian Oil Infrastructure Should Be The Focus 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Believing that Trump might yet help Ukraine is not harmless optimism: it is part of a manoeuvre that buys Putin time.Their words
In other words, it is not harmless optimism to act like Trump might help Ukraine, it is falling for a deadly, pro-Putin maneuver that is and will increasingly lead to Ukrainian suffering.
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korrents.com
Without the ability to sell fuel abroad Russia is not a great power and not even a medium economic power.Their words
Russia without the ability to raise money by exporting fuel is not only not a great power, it is not a medium economic power.
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Their words
It is not because it affects Russian morale, or causes inconvenience, it is because ultimately it is the best way to take away the one thing all war machines need—money.
19 August
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Their words
Incredible watering down -- the Singularity is now redefined to mean "the rate of new firm creation has increased somewhat" Vernor Vinge described the Singularity as an event horizon past which everything (e.g. what happens tomorrow) becomes entirely unimaginable and unpredictable to human understanding
15 August
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Their words
The alternative way that you can reduce risk is actually just reducing consequence, right? And we would argue that that's a much better way to reduce risk. Odds uh are stochastic, right? Even if you do an enormous amount of risk reduction on odds and you do all this engineering, something's still going to happen, right? like just something's going to come out of left field and you can't predict everything.
12 August
10 August
7 August
5 August
1 August
23 July
16 July
12 July
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Their words
After the financial deplatforming of Western proles and foreign elites, of Canadian truckers and 145M Russians, it’s clear that digital finance is a weapon of war.
6 July
30 June
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korrents.com
Writing well means knowing the exact moment to be unpredictable, which is not the same as raising the temperature.Their words
like when you're writing you sort of you sort of know in order for it to be good, you have to have an element of the unpredictable. And it's it's not just like increasing temperature in your mind or something, right? It's like knowing exactly the correct point when you want to make an unpredictable move.
20 June
13 June
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Their words
By resisting Russia, Ukrainians are defending what is perhaps most basic about decent political life: the idea that people should be who they choose to be, not whom they are forced to become.
9 June
From one piece Sarah Paine - Why Putin and Xi can't escape geography 5 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
One, you're surrounding yourself by failing states. You can look at Russia and China and they're surrounded by some of the most dysfunctional places on the planet and you go, "Gee whiz, are they unlucky or they complicit?"
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Their words
It was a miracle of your lifetimes. It lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. The problem for the likes of Putin is that this wealth producing trade was not happening at his house, but the houses of those vested in the trading order, not in extortion.
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Their words
And Russia's never had a commerce-driven economy. China much more so under Deng Xiaoping, but recently Xi Jinping has been privileging the crony sector over the private sector and neither one has stable government institutions.
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Their words
So, China and Russia certainly have maritime ambitions, but I'm not clear they actually understand what goes into a full maritime paradigm.
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Their words
You set them up to fail, you destabilize the rising, you ingest the failing, and you set up buffer zones in between, and you await the opportune moment to pounce and absorb. This is Vladimir Putin's game.
8 June
30 May
27 May
20 March
13 February
From one piece Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential” 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
on the basic hypothesis of you know, as you put it, within 10 years we'll get to, you know, you know, what I call kind of country of geniuses in a data center. I'm at like 90% on that. Um and it's hard to go much higher than 90% cuz the world is so unpredictable.
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Their words
on the basic hypothesis of you know, as you put it, within 10 years we'll get to, you know, you know, what I call kind of country of geniuses in a data center. I'm at like 90% on that. Um and it's hard to go much higher than 90% cuz the world is so unpredictable.
1 January
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Likedrcmnd.app
The Eastern FrontTheir words
Nick Lloyd’s The Eastern Front covers the clashes between Imperial Germany and the Russian Empire as well as the Austro-Hungarians against the Italians and the Serbs. Whereas the western front was essentially static throughout the whole war, the east was characterized by the sort of maneuver warfare that most generals had expected to fight.
10 October 2025
From one piece 'As Long as it Takes': What does it mean to commit to Ukraine's security? 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Recall that one of Putin’s objectives in 2022 was to ‘demilitarise’ Ukraine. He has achieved the opposite.
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korrents.com
The West is not doing Ukraine a favour by helping it resist Russia; Ukraine is doing the West a favour.Their words
The West is not doing Ukraine a favour by helping it resist aggression; it is Ukraine doing the West a favour.
5 October 2025
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Their words
I mean in my experience the typical win rate and I hate to use that term for experiments is is often something like 30 to 50%. Like usually you're not actually get like you're trying a bunch of things a lot of hypotheses turn out not to be true. you know, consumer products are very unpredictable like that.
19 September 2025
From one piece Norman Ohler: Hitler, Nazis, Drugs, WW2, Blitzkrieg, LSD, MKUltra & CIA | Lex Fridman Podcast #481 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So Hitler receives this Dolantin injection, and he gets up, he goes into the meeting room, he dominates the meeting room, he feels great. He decides, you know, in front of everybody, no one is able to… no one overpowers him in that meeting. He was very good in the room. And the troops are split up. Like Leningrad is now a target. This weakens the general thrust towards Moscow. This is probably why they didn't take Moscow.
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Their words
And that was not the British soldier, not the French soldier, not the Russian soldier. That was fatigue. He had been looking for a way to keep a soldier awake longer.
10 September 2025
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Their words
This is Russia's war. And it is Russia that should pay. This is why we need to work urgently on a new solution to finance Ukraine's war effort on the basis of the immobilised Russian assets. With the cash balances associated to these Russian assets, we can provide Ukraine with a Reparations Loan.
31 July 2025
From one piece Jack Weatherford: Genghis Khan and the Mongol Empire | Lex Fridman Podcast #476 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
If you have a nation of 1 million people and you are ruling over hundreds of millions of people, hundreds of millions of people, China, Russia, the Middle East, you do not do that through warfare. You conquer them initially through warfare, but you do not rule them through warfare. You've got to be offering something that they want, something that they like.
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korrents.com
Genghis Khan's army was the greatest military force in history, and no power will ever repeat what it did.Their words
No other power in the history of the world has conquered Russia and China and Persia and Central Asia and Turkey and Korea. No power in the world has done that. Not Alexander, not the Romans. Nobody will ever do it again.
24 May 2025
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Their words
And Russians will hate me for saying this, and I probably will get a whole load of bots on the back of it, but the truth is, it is not the street fighting that destroys Sixth Army, it is the encirclement, the subsequent encirclement.
31 March 2025
23 March 2025
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Their words
basically everything I thought would work out well, people use it less than I thought they did. And everything where I was like, I don't know, but let's build the thing. People love that.
17 December 2024
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The Seventh FloorTheir words
one in a series about the CIA’s efforts to subvert Russian spies
3 July 2024
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Lovedrcmnd.app
About Dry GrassesTheir words
About Dry Grasses (Turkey, CC) 3.9 This is my favorite film directed by Ceylan, and that’s high praise. At times it feels like a long Russian novel. Engrossing from beginning to end, despite its 3¼ hour length. This one also could have been entitled “Evil Does Not Exist”.
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Likedrcmnd.app
You Were Like a Wild ChrysanthemumTheir words
You Were Like a Wild Chrysanthemum (Japan, 1955, CC) 3.5 Chishu Ryu is one of my favorite actors, but he has a fairly small role. Very nice cinematography. Recommended for fans of nostalgia.
25 May 2024
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Their words
It’s just this idea that people have about the past can be very useful if it brings you happiness in the present, but if it narrows your worldview in the present, you’re not aware of those biases that you have, it can be toxic either at a personal level or at a collective level.
28 April 2024
25 April 2024
26 March 2024
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Their words
reassurance is futile. Reassurance that we seek is like a warm bath, it feels great, and then you need more of it. Because the future is unpredictable, and when the future doesn't match what you hoped for, the reassurance you used to have isn't enough. You need more reassurance.
22 March 2024
From one piece Annie Jacobsen: Nuclear War, CIA, KGB, Aliens, Area 51, Roswell & Secrecy | Lex Fridman Podcast #420 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
But that was their official position, and that changed just two years ago when Putin gave a speech and he said that their position had changed, that they will no longer wait to absorb an attack.
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Their words
First of all, we have 44 interceptor missiles total, period, full stop. Let me repeat, 44. Earlier we were talking about Russia’s 1,670 deployed nuclear weapons. How are those 44 interceptor missiles going to work? And they also have a success rate of around 50%. So they work 50% of the time.
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Their words
I’m coming back at you with a very dark answer and a very big number. And that number is 5 billion people.
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Their words
there is an absolutely existential flaw in the system, which Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta confirmed with me, which is that our ICBMs do not have enough range. If we launch a counterattack against, say, North Korea, our ICBMs must fly over Russia. They must fly over Russia.
4 March 2024
From one piece Serhii Plokhy: History of Ukraine, Russia, Soviet Union, KGB, Nazis & War | Lex Fridman Podcast #415 5 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So in historical terms and intellectual terms, what is happening today in the war between Russia and Ukraine is the vision on one level or another level that was formulated by the noble laureate Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, half Russian, half Ukrainian.
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Their words
And the Soviet collapse is continuation of the disintegration of the Russian Empire that started back in 1917, that was arrested for some period of time by the Bolsheviks, by the Communist ideology, which was internationalist ideology. And then came back in full force in the late ’80s and early ’90s.
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Their words
So if NATO is the real concern, it would be probably not completely unreasonable to expect that if not every single soldier, but at least half of the Russian army fighting in Ukraine would be moved to protect the new border with NATO in Finland.
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Their words
Russia and Russian identity was formed around the state, and has difficulty imagining itself outside of the state, and that state happened to be imperial for most of Russian history. Ukrainian project came into existence in revolt against the state.
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Their words
So for him, the biggest tragedy is not the loss of life, the biggest tragedy is the loss of the great power status or the unity of those whom he considered to be Russian nations.
23 December 2023
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Their words
Biology is unpredictable, especially when the immune system is involved, and there is no guarantee that a drug that appears safe in animals will be safe in humans.
17 November 2023
From one piece John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
There is no evidence Putin intended to conquer Ukraine, and the army he sent could not have done it.Their words
There's no evidence he was interested in conquering all of Ukraine. There was no evidence beforehand that he was interested in conquering any of Ukraine. And there's no way that an army that had 190,000 troops, at the most, could have conquered all of Ukraine, it's just impossible.
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korrents.com
Russia's refusal to accept NATO on its border is exactly what the United States demands for its own neighbourhood.Their words
Well, what's good for the goose is good for the gander. And if we don't like great powers coming into our neighborhood, it's hardly surprising that the Russians did not want NATO on their doorstep.
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korrents.com
Removing Putin would not end the war, because whoever replaced him would be more hawkish than he is.Their words
My second point is if he doesn't remain in power and he's replaced, I would bet a lot of money that his replacement will be more hawkish and more hard line than Putin is.
9 November 2023
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Their words
Look, I think I would just recommend do not send the flower of Ukrainian youth to die in trenches, whether he talks to Putin or not, just don’t do that. Whoever goes on the offensive will lose massive numbers of people and history will not look kindly upon them.
4 March 2023
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Their words
Beijing decided to partner with Russia, an imperial aggressor, when it is the US and Europe that have markets and technology.
12 October 2022
26 August 2022
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Their words
As much as we might want to imagine that the greater currents push historical events largely on a predetermined path with but minor variations from what must always have been, in practice events are tremendously contingent on unpredictable variables.
6 June 2022
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The Lincoln HighwayTheir words
Once again, I was wowed by Towles’s writing—especially because The Lincoln Highway is so different from A Gentleman in Moscow in terms of setting, plot, and themes.
8 February 2022
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korrents.com
Relying on metatables for method lookup tends to produce surprising, unpredictable behavior.Their words
This is a common problem with using metatables; they can lead to surprising, unpredictable behavior.
20 January 2021
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korrents.com
Software is not uniquely unpredictable; other engineering disciplines are hit by the same surprises and overruns.Their words
To assume that software is uniquely unpredictable is a special kind of arrogance.
1 June 2019
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Life and FateTheir words
These were the notebooks that we worked on in Moscow and one realised that here was most of the raw material for Life and Fate which I think is probably the most important work of fiction about World War II.
20 May 2019
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Lovedrcmnd.app
A Gentleman in MoscowTheir words
A Gentleman in Moscow is an amazing story because it manages to be a little bit of everything.
5 April 2018
Nothing matches.
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