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https://t.co/9sLQvgKr3Z the Iran-Russia combination suggests that a quagmire looms #OOTT
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20 September
19 September
18 September
17 September
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Their words
I think that as a form of intellectual personal protective equipment you should adopt the rule that any specific turn of phrase an LLM suggests is off limits.
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Their words
I don’t know what odds I’d give, but I’m probably bullish on the odds of substantive regulation passing relative to the conventional wisdom.
16 September
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korrents.com
The climate impact from NVIDIA's AI products in 2025 is comparable to that of a major state-owned coal company.Their words
we produced our own conservative estimate, finding that the climate impact from 2025's use of NVIDIA'S AI products is on par with the state-owned Russian Coal company.
15 September
14 September
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korrents.com
What has been seen of climate change so far is only a foretaste of worse disasters to come.Their words
And everything we know about climate change suggests that what we’ve seen so far is just a foretaste of the disasters to come.
The MAGA Plot(s) to Destroy Humanitypaulkrugman.substack.com
11 September
9 September
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Their words
A model looking like it is becoming smarter, attempting shenanigans less often, and more often doing what you want, but getting better at hiding its actions when it wants to do that, is exactly the scary combination.
8 September
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korrents.com
Marco Rubio is struggling to hire talented staff and is settling for loyalists who follow his instructions instead.Their words
This suggests that Rubio is having some difficulties hiring anyone with talent and is settling for a putz who will do what Rubio tells him to do on Latin America.
The Devolution of the Policy Planning Staffdanieldrezner.substack.com
7 September
6 September
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Their words
The US military is being run by a group that apes the Russians and not the Ukrainians—when we have in front of us one of the best statements of command principles I have ever seen from the latter.
4 September
3 September
2 September
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Their words
the Trump administration's deferential posture towards Russia and China has alienated allies. But on the other hand, it has gained the United States nothing in the way of strategic stability.
So How Is The Concert of Trump Going?danieldrezner.substack.com
1 September
31 August
30 August
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Their words
While Western export bans have severed Russia from much of the auto market, they have not tempered the demand for brand-name SUVs and trucks. That has given rise to a sophisticated network of criminals that steals cars, hides them in shipping containers and sends them to Russia, often by way of the Middle East
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Their words
However senseless it is, American rhetoric of the non-existence of Canada is concerning, because it resembles the way the Kremlin spoke about Ukraine, and rightly reminds Canada that their sovereignty is indeed the issue.
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korrents.com
Russia's 2026 summer offensive failed: it took almost no ground while losing more soldiers than Russia can recruit.Their words
What we are seeing is a summer offensive of failure.
27 August
26 August
From one piece On European hypocrisy and warmongering 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The Nordic-Baltic warmongering under the current conditions is therefore (i) irresponsible, (ii) hypocritical, (iii) immoral, and (iv) flirts with a disaster of immense proportions.
On European hypocrisy and warmongeringbranko2f7.substack.com
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korrents.com
Small European states can demand a war with Russia only because they assume somebody else will fight it.Their words
It is also hypocritical because it is based on the assumption that somebody else (in this case, the United States) will fight for them.
On European hypocrisy and warmongeringbranko2f7.substack.com
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Their words
Such, indeed fragile, peace not only puts an end to today’s carnage, but leaves open a possibility of eventual long-term solution between Russia and Ukraine.
On European hypocrisy and warmongeringbranko2f7.substack.com
24 August
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Their words
And the evidence suggests that wanting pursuit of a goal is mediated or modulated at least by dopamine whereas actually the liking the pleasure you might get from an outcome is not that seems to be related to uh opioid neurotransmitters in the brain.
23 August
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Their words
SMB Multichannel can make an old NAS with several gigabit interfaces much more capable than one might assume from looking at any single Ethernet port.
From one piece Weekend Update #199: Ukraine's Campaign Against Russian Oil Infrastructure Should Be The Focus 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Believing that Trump might yet help Ukraine is not harmless optimism: it is part of a manoeuvre that buys Putin time.Their words
In other words, it is not harmless optimism to act like Trump might help Ukraine, it is falling for a deadly, pro-Putin maneuver that is and will increasingly lead to Ukrainian suffering.
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korrents.com
Without the ability to sell fuel abroad Russia is not a great power and not even a medium economic power.Their words
Russia without the ability to raise money by exporting fuel is not only not a great power, it is not a medium economic power.
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Their words
It is not because it affects Russian morale, or causes inconvenience, it is because ultimately it is the best way to take away the one thing all war machines need—money.
15 August
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Their words
Nuclear's never had its Ford moment or its Tesla moment, if you want to put it that way. And that's what Valor Atomics is working on doing. We have nuclear reactors that are more manufactured than constructed and uh they're extremely safe and we think the combination of these two things is going to allow us to scale nuclear fision and make energy 10 times cheaper for humanity.
13 August
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korrents.com
Success in cultural and professional fields is driven more by chance and path dependence than by talent.Their words
much cultural success is stochastic (the experimental evidence suggests that talent only moderately predicts success in culture markets), and that path dependence shapes chances of success
12 August
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Their words
we find that the performance on held out tasks decreases dramatically. Whereas if we um just take out a random 20% of the data that's less diverse than the most diverse subset, the performance um only decreases a little bit. And so this suggests that actually having really diverse data plays an important role in enabling it to generalize to new tasks.
10 August
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Likedsponsoredrcmnd.app
Reylight Dawn MaxTheir words
The Reylight Dawn Max titanium flashlight is very throwy, but still identifiable as a Dawn. I always liked Dawns, so this is a very good combination.
5 August
1 August
27 July
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Their words
the heat of the 1930s was a regional event, due to a combination of unforced variability and human activities (poor agricultural land management).
23 July
16 July
12 July
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Their words
After the financial deplatforming of Western proles and foreign elites, of Canadian truckers and 145M Russians, it’s clear that digital finance is a weapon of war.
8 July
20 June
13 June
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Their words
By resisting Russia, Ukrainians are defending what is perhaps most basic about decent political life: the idea that people should be who they choose to be, not whom they are forced to become.
9 June
From one piece Sarah Paine - Why Putin and Xi can't escape geography 5 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
One, you're surrounding yourself by failing states. You can look at Russia and China and they're surrounded by some of the most dysfunctional places on the planet and you go, "Gee whiz, are they unlucky or they complicit?"
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It was a miracle of your lifetimes. It lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. The problem for the likes of Putin is that this wealth producing trade was not happening at his house, but the houses of those vested in the trading order, not in extortion.
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And Russia's never had a commerce-driven economy. China much more so under Deng Xiaoping, but recently Xi Jinping has been privileging the crony sector over the private sector and neither one has stable government institutions.
+ 2 more
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So, China and Russia certainly have maritime ambitions, but I'm not clear they actually understand what goes into a full maritime paradigm.
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You set them up to fail, you destabilize the rising, you ingest the failing, and you set up buffer zones in between, and you await the opportune moment to pounce and absorb. This is Vladimir Putin's game.
8 June
4 June
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So, what you need is that basically demand to be bounded, like a hard bound, not even like a soft sort of like diminishing sensitivity. You need for them to eventually say, "I've had enough. I don't want to spend any more money." And for that money to not enter as investment.
30 May
29 May
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Lovedrcmnd.app
MacBook Air M2Their words
With 24gb RAM, it's an odd combination – a beefy turbocharger on a Honda Civic. But it's a great computer, one of the best I've ever owned.
28 May
27 May
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Their words
But you if you also become an expert in a specific industry, that's like a deadly combo. Um if you are like just pick any industry, let's say let's say farming, let's say you understand that farming industry really well and you're also a decent software engineer, you're probably like the top 10 people in the world for that combination that the whole industry will want to hire.
20 May
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Their words
I think where Rust is really unique is in the combination of things. So on one hand, it it doesn't have a garbage collector and it it's usable in low-level context like the Linux kernel or firmware or whatever.
8 May
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Their words
And so, maybe what you're seeing is that this group of people in Europe and the Middle East over the last 10,000 years has moved into a a period of relatively more stable food, where building up stores of fat are not as advantageous, and there's been selection against this combination of traits.
28 March
23 March
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Their words
And so when you take these things in combination, I am absolutely certain that the world's GDP is going to accelerate in growth. I'm absolutely certain the percentage of that GDP that will be used for computation will be 100 times more than the past
20 March
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Their words
I simultaneously feel like I'm talking to an extremely brilliant PhD student who's been like a systems programmer for their entire life and a 10-year-old.
2 February
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korrents.com
Spending money does not generate happiness.Their words
there is no research that suggests spending money generates happiness.
1 January
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Likedrcmnd.app
The Eastern FrontTheir words
Nick Lloyd’s The Eastern Front covers the clashes between Imperial Germany and the Russian Empire as well as the Austro-Hungarians against the Italians and the Serbs. Whereas the western front was essentially static throughout the whole war, the east was characterized by the sort of maneuver warfare that most generals had expected to fight.
12 December 2025
25 November 2025
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Their words
What I meant to say is that language math and coding and especially math and coding suggests that whatever it is that makes people good at learning is probably not so much a complicated prior but something more some fundamental thing.
10 October 2025
From one piece 'As Long as it Takes': What does it mean to commit to Ukraine's security? 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Recall that one of Putin’s objectives in 2022 was to ‘demilitarise’ Ukraine. He has achieved the opposite.
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korrents.com
The West is not doing Ukraine a favour by helping it resist Russia; Ukraine is doing the West a favour.Their words
The West is not doing Ukraine a favour by helping it resist aggression; it is Ukraine doing the West a favour.
30 September 2025
19 September 2025
From one piece Norman Ohler: Hitler, Nazis, Drugs, WW2, Blitzkrieg, LSD, MKUltra & CIA | Lex Fridman Podcast #481 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So Hitler receives this Dolantin injection, and he gets up, he goes into the meeting room, he dominates the meeting room, he feels great. He decides, you know, in front of everybody, no one is able to… no one overpowers him in that meeting. He was very good in the room. And the troops are split up. Like Leningrad is now a target. This weakens the general thrust towards Moscow. This is probably why they didn't take Moscow.
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Their words
And that was not the British soldier, not the French soldier, not the Russian soldier. That was fatigue. He had been looking for a way to keep a soldier awake longer.
10 September 2025
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Their words
This is Russia's war. And it is Russia that should pay. This is why we need to work urgently on a new solution to finance Ukraine's war effort on the basis of the immobilised Russian assets. With the cash balances associated to these Russian assets, we can provide Ukraine with a Reparations Loan.
19 August 2025
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the FutureTheir words
Dan Wang suggests in his fantastic forthcoming book, Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future
31 July 2025
From one piece Jack Weatherford: Genghis Khan and the Mongol Empire | Lex Fridman Podcast #476 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
If you have a nation of 1 million people and you are ruling over hundreds of millions of people, hundreds of millions of people, China, Russia, the Middle East, you do not do that through warfare. You conquer them initially through warfare, but you do not rule them through warfare. You've got to be offering something that they want, something that they like.
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korrents.com
Genghis Khan's army was the greatest military force in history, and no power will ever repeat what it did.Their words
No other power in the history of the world has conquered Russia and China and Persia and Central Asia and Turkey and Korea. No power in the world has done that. Not Alexander, not the Romans. Nobody will ever do it again.
23 July 2025
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Their words
So my betting is that it's mostly it is just classical computing that's going on in the brain, which suggests that all the phenomena are modelable or mimicable by a classical computer.
24 May 2025
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And Russians will hate me for saying this, and I probably will get a whole load of bots on the back of it, but the truth is, it is not the street fighting that destroys Sixth Army, it is the encirclement, the subsequent encirclement.
9 February 2025
21 January 2025
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korrents.com
Pre-colonial statehood in East Asia carried through the colonial period and on into the post-independence era.Their words
Precisely how much the ancient continuity of East Asian states matters for development is still a little murky, and the delineation with colonial legacies is still an area of active debate—but the balance of evidence suggests that the legacies of these pre-colonial states stretched through the colonial period, extending even into the post-independence era.
17 December 2024
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The Seventh FloorTheir words
one in a series about the CIA’s efforts to subvert Russian spies
12 December 2024
9 November 2024
1 November 2024
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korrents.com
Government payments and benefits aimed at raising birth rates do not reverse the decline.Their words
Across the OECD, governments are upping their spending. But a wealth of research suggests these fail to mitigate the downward trend.
3 July 2024
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Lovedrcmnd.app
About Dry GrassesTheir words
About Dry Grasses (Turkey, CC) 3.9 This is my favorite film directed by Ceylan, and that’s high praise. At times it feels like a long Russian novel. Engrossing from beginning to end, despite its 3¼ hour length. This one also could have been entitled “Evil Does Not Exist”.
25 April 2024
22 March 2024
From one piece Annie Jacobsen: Nuclear War, CIA, KGB, Aliens, Area 51, Roswell & Secrecy | Lex Fridman Podcast #420 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
But that was their official position, and that changed just two years ago when Putin gave a speech and he said that their position had changed, that they will no longer wait to absorb an attack.
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First of all, we have 44 interceptor missiles total, period, full stop. Let me repeat, 44. Earlier we were talking about Russia’s 1,670 deployed nuclear weapons. How are those 44 interceptor missiles going to work? And they also have a success rate of around 50%. So they work 50% of the time.
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I’m coming back at you with a very dark answer and a very big number. And that number is 5 billion people.
+ 1 more
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there is an absolutely existential flaw in the system, which Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta confirmed with me, which is that our ICBMs do not have enough range. If we launch a counterattack against, say, North Korea, our ICBMs must fly over Russia. They must fly over Russia.
18 March 2024
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Their words
I would heavily discourage any startup that was thinking about starting as a nonprofit and adding a for-profit arm later. I’d heavily discourage them from doing that. I don’t think we’ll set a precedent here.
4 March 2024
From one piece Serhii Plokhy: History of Ukraine, Russia, Soviet Union, KGB, Nazis & War | Lex Fridman Podcast #415 5 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So in historical terms and intellectual terms, what is happening today in the war between Russia and Ukraine is the vision on one level or another level that was formulated by the noble laureate Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, half Russian, half Ukrainian.
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Their words
And the Soviet collapse is continuation of the disintegration of the Russian Empire that started back in 1917, that was arrested for some period of time by the Bolsheviks, by the Communist ideology, which was internationalist ideology. And then came back in full force in the late ’80s and early ’90s.
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Their words
So if NATO is the real concern, it would be probably not completely unreasonable to expect that if not every single soldier, but at least half of the Russian army fighting in Ukraine would be moved to protect the new border with NATO in Finland.
+ 2 more
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Their words
Russia and Russian identity was formed around the state, and has difficulty imagining itself outside of the state, and that state happened to be imperial for most of Russian history. Ukrainian project came into existence in revolt against the state.
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Their words
So for him, the biggest tragedy is not the loss of life, the biggest tragedy is the loss of the great power status or the unity of those whom he considered to be Russian nations.
21 December 2023
19 December 2023
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korrents.com
Whatever safety gain a driver-assistance system delivers is cancelled out by the driver complacency it creates.Their words
suggests that any steering automation safety gains (e.g., Level 2 autopilot) are approximately negated by driver complacency, with autopilot on being slightly worse than autopilot off
17 November 2023
From one piece John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
There is no evidence Putin intended to conquer Ukraine, and the army he sent could not have done it.Their words
There's no evidence he was interested in conquering all of Ukraine. There was no evidence beforehand that he was interested in conquering any of Ukraine. And there's no way that an army that had 190,000 troops, at the most, could have conquered all of Ukraine, it's just impossible.
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korrents.com
Russia's refusal to accept NATO on its border is exactly what the United States demands for its own neighbourhood.Their words
Well, what's good for the goose is good for the gander. And if we don't like great powers coming into our neighborhood, it's hardly surprising that the Russians did not want NATO on their doorstep.
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korrents.com
Removing Putin would not end the war, because whoever replaced him would be more hawkish than he is.Their words
My second point is if he doesn't remain in power and he's replaced, I would bet a lot of money that his replacement will be more hawkish and more hard line than Putin is.
9 November 2023
From one piece Elon Musk: War, AI, Aliens, Politics, Physics, Video Games, and Humanity | Lex Fridman Podcast #400 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Look, I think I would just recommend do not send the flower of Ukrainian youth to die in trenches, whether he talks to Putin or not, just don’t do that. Whoever goes on the offensive will lose massive numbers of people and history will not look kindly upon them.
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korrents.com
China's history says it is not an acquisitive power: it is not going to go out and invade a whole bunch of countries.Their words
The good news, the history of China suggests that China is not inquisitive, meaning they’re not going to go out and invade a whole bunch of countries.
28 September 2023
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korrents.com
The real world is not the physical world; it is the physical and digital worlds coming together into one experience.Their words
And I kind of think increasingly, the physical world is super important, but I actually think the real world is the combination of the physical world and the digital worlds coming together.
4 March 2023
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Their words
Beijing decided to partner with Russia, an imperial aggressor, when it is the US and Europe that have markets and technology.
6 June 2022
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The Lincoln HighwayTheir words
Once again, I was wowed by Towles’s writing—especially because The Lincoln Highway is so different from A Gentleman in Moscow in terms of setting, plot, and themes.
1 June 2022
Nothing matches.
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