John Mearsheimer
Political scientist at the University of Chicago and the leading exponent of offensive realism; wrote The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.
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Korrents What they believe 22 beliefs — each backed by an exact quote.
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Power is the currency of international relations, and states are driven above all to maximise how much of it they control.
I believe that power is the currency of international relations, and by that I mean that states are deeply interested in the balance of power and they're interested in maximizing how much power they control.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
A state's power rests on two material foundations only: the size of its population and its wealth.
The two key building blocks of power are population size and wealth. You want to have a lot of people and you want to be really wealthy.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
States are not inherently aggressive; anarchy leaves them no choice but to behave aggressively.
So it's very important to understand that I'm not arguing that states are inherently aggressive. My point is that as long as states are in anarchy, they have no choice but to behave in an aggressive fashion.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
Show 19 more
Whether a state is a democracy or an autocracy makes no difference to how it behaves abroad.
A realist like me would say that it doesn't matter whether a state is a democracy or not, all states behave the same way because the structure of the system, getting back to our earlier discussion about international anarchy, the structure of the system leaves those states no choice, whether they're democracies or autocracies.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
Economic interdependence does not prevent war, because survival always trumps prosperity.
The point is that economic interdependence at its root has prosperity as the core variable. In the realest story, the core variable is survival, and survival always trumps prosperity.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
States do not merely defend the power they have: they seize every opportunity to gain more that looks cheap and likely to succeed.
I'm not a defensive realist, I'm an offensive realist. And my argument is that states look for opportunities to gain more power, and every time they see, or almost every time they see an opportunity to gain more power, and they think the likelihood of success is high and the cost will not be great, they'll jump at that opportunity.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
There is a good chance the Second World War would have happened even without Hitler.
And I believe that there is a good chance you would've had World War II in the absence of Hitler. I believe that Germany was very powerful, it was deeply worried about the balance of power in Europe, and it had strong incentives to behave aggressively in the late 1930s, early 1940s.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
There is no evidence Putin intended to conquer Ukraine, and the army he sent could not have done it.
There's no evidence he was interested in conquering all of Ukraine. There was no evidence beforehand that he was interested in conquering any of Ukraine. And there's no way that an army that had 190,000 troops, at the most, could have conquered all of Ukraine, it's just impossible.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
NATO expansion into Ukraine was the principal cause of the war, which makes the West principally responsible for it.
And of course, what they were negotiating about was NATO expansion into Ukraine, which was the principal cause of the war. People in the West don't want to hear that argument because if it is true, which it is, then the West is principally responsible for this bloodbath that's now taking place.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
Russia's refusal to accept NATO on its border is exactly what the United States demands for its own neighbourhood.
Well, what's good for the goose is good for the gander. And if we don't like great powers coming into our neighborhood, it's hardly surprising that the Russians did not want NATO on their doorstep.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
Removing Putin would not end the war, because whoever replaced him would be more hawkish than he is.
My second point is if he doesn't remain in power and he's replaced, I would bet a lot of money that his replacement will be more hawkish and more hard line than Putin is.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
The war in Ukraine will not end in a peace agreement but in an unstable frozen conflict.
I don't think there's any real prospect of a meaningful peace agreement. I think it's almost impossible. I think the best you can hope for at this point is, at some point the shooting stops, you have a ceasefire, and then you have a frozen conflict. And that frozen conflict will not be highly stable.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
Ukraine should have kept its nuclear weapons in 1993, and keeping them would have made this war far less likely.
So that's why I argued in '93 that if Ukraine kept its nuclear weapons that made war down the road much less likely. And I believe I was correct.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
In a world of mutual assured destruction, nuclear weapons are used to manipulate risk rather than to win a battle.
The way you use nuclear weapons in that world is you use them for manipulation of risk purposes, demonstration effect. You put both sides out on the slippery slope.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
The October 7th attack was resistance to the Israeli occupation, not a response to the Saudi normalisation talks.
I think the main driving force is that the Palestinians feel oppressed as they should, and that this was a resistance move. They were resisting the Israeli occupation.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
A two-state solution is no longer possible; that boat has sailed.
That's why I've sort of taken to saying, and I hope I'm wrong here, that on the two-state solution, that boat has sailed. It's no longer possible.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
What Israel is doing in Gaza is a massacre, but it is not a genocide.
I think what the Israelis are doing in Gaza represents a massacre. I would use that term given the number of civilians that they've killed and the fact that they've been indiscriminate in terms of how they've been bombing Gaza. But I would not use the word genocide.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
There is no military solution for Israel, because the Palestinians cannot be beaten into submission.
The Palestinians want a state of their own. They don't want to live under occupation. And there's no military solution for Israel here. There has to be a political solution.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
The Israel lobby is an ordinary American interest group rather than a cabal, and it happens to be extremely powerful.
So our argument is that the lobby is not doing anything that's illegal, or illicit, or immoral, or unethical. It's just a good old-fashioned American interest group. And it just happens to be extremely powerful.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
Deterring China over Taiwan does not require being able to beat it, which the United States probably cannot do anyway.
A lot of people think that to make deterrence work, you have to be able to beat the Chinese and therefore, you need a much bigger military. And I don't think over time that's possible. I think it's probably not even possible now to beat the Chinese in a war over Taiwan or in a war in the South China Sea.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
China's leaders think in realist terms and America's do not, which is the more dangerous half of the pairing.
The Chinese are my kind of people. They're realists, right? They speak my language. It's the United States that is not very realist. American leaders have a very powerful liberal bent and tend not to see the world in realist terms.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
Hispanic immigrants are integrating into the American mainstream faster than the European immigrants of the nineteenth century did.
All the evidence is that Hispanics are integrating into the American mainstream more quickly and more effectively than the European immigrant groups that came starting around 1835.
John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3 | Lex Fridman Podcast #401 Said 17 Nov 2023
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