Phillips P. O'Brien
Professor of strategic studies at St Andrews; wrote How the War Was Won and The Strategists, and writes weekly on the war in Ukraine.
Phillips P. O'Brien did not write this page. What is this?
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Where they publish
Newsletter Phillips's Newsletter His newsletter on strategy and the war in Ukraine. Has a feed.
Open phillipspobrien.substack.com
Link verified 20 Sept 2026.
Beliefs
Korrents What they believe 11 beliefs — each backed by an exact quote.
Each is a — compiled by korrents.com, not by them: the one-line wordings are korrents', the quotes are theirs.
Recent
In war the length of the fighting matters far more than its ferocity.
One point I have tried to get across in this Substack from the very beginning is that in a war, length is far more important than ferocity.
Weekend Update #201: It Will Be A Brutal Fall and Winter Said 6 Sept 2026
Trying to hold escalation down in Ukraine did not contain the war; it lengthened it and made it worse.
Trying to artificially restrain escalation has led the war to be far more horrible and extensive than it needed to be.
Weekend Update #201: It Will Be A Brutal Fall and Winter Said 6 Sept 2026
The American military is being run on the Russian model rather than the Ukrainian one, and it should be rebuilt on the Ukrainian principles instead.
The US military is being run by a group that apes the Russians and not the Ukrainians—when we have in front of us one of the best statements of command principles I have ever seen from the latter.
Weekend Update #201: It Will Be A Brutal Fall and Winter Said 6 Sept 2026
Show 8 more
Russia's 2026 summer offensive failed: it took almost no ground while losing more soldiers than Russia can recruit.
What we are seeing is a summer offensive of failure.
Weekend Update #200: Summer Is Ending, The Russian Offensive Is A Failure So Far Said 30 Aug 2026
States do not behave like predators by nature, and the American alliance system is the standing proof of it.
If there is one thing we can say that has been shown, it is that states do not behave like this by nature.
Weekend Update #200: Summer Is Ending, The Russian Offensive Is A Failure So Far Said 30 Aug 2026
Ukraine's deep-strike campaign should be aimed at Russia's fuel system above every other target, because that is what takes money away from the war machine.
It is not because it affects Russian morale, or causes inconvenience, it is because ultimately it is the best way to take away the one thing all war machines need—money.
Weekend Update #199: Ukraine's Campaign Against Russian Oil Infrastructure Should Be The Focus Said 23 Aug 2026
Without the ability to sell fuel abroad Russia is not a great power and not even a medium economic power.
Russia without the ability to raise money by exporting fuel is not only not a great power, it is not a medium economic power.
Weekend Update #199: Ukraine's Campaign Against Russian Oil Infrastructure Should Be The Focus Said 23 Aug 2026
Believing that Trump might yet help Ukraine is not harmless optimism: it is part of a manoeuvre that buys Putin time.
In other words, it is not harmless optimism to act like Trump might help Ukraine, it is falling for a deadly, pro-Putin maneuver that is and will increasingly lead to Ukrainian suffering.
Weekend Update #199: Ukraine's Campaign Against Russian Oil Infrastructure Should Be The Focus Said 23 Aug 2026
Russia's allies have been more useful to Russia than Ukraine's allies have been to Ukraine.
Russia’s allies, on the other hand, have actually offered Russia support that has allowed Russia to fight the war that Russia has wanted to fight.
Weekend Update #198: Russia's Allies Are More Helpful Than Ukraine's Said 15 Aug 2026
Ukraine's partners used their aid to control and limit Ukraine, and in doing so made the war longer and bloodier than it needed to be.
They have used aid not only to help, but also to try and control and limit Ukraine. In doing this, they have helped transform this war into a longer, bloodier affair than it needed to be.
Weekend Update #198: Russia's Allies Are More Helpful Than Ukraine's Said 15 Aug 2026
The small amounts of American military aid still reaching Ukraine are a lever for controlling how Ukraine fights, not an attempt to help it win.
The USA has kept dribbling small amounts of military support for Ukraine because it gives the USA a great deal of leverage, the ability to both shape how Ukraine fights its war and even how European states prepare.
Weekend Update #198: Russia's Allies Are More Helpful Than Ukraine's Said 15 Aug 2026
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