Phillips P. O'Brien
Professor of strategic studies at St Andrews; wrote How the War Was Won and The Strategists, and writes weekly on the war in Ukraine.
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What they believe
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In war the length of the fighting matters far more than its ferocity.
One point I have tried to get across in this Substack from the very beginning is that in a war, length is far more important than ferocity.
phillipspobrien.substack.comSaid 6 Sept 2026This on korrents
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Russia's 2026 summer offensive failed: it took almost no ground while losing more soldiers than Russia can recruit.
What we are seeing is a summer offensive of failure.
phillipspobrien.substack.comSaid 30 Aug 2026This on korrents
The bold line is korrents’ wording; the quote is theirs. These 2: what they wrote before what they said aloud, one per source, newest first.
Beliefs
Korrents What they believe 11 beliefs — each backed by an exact quote.
Each is a — compiled by korrents.com, not by them: the one-line wordings are korrents', the quotes are theirs.
Recent
In war the length of the fighting matters far more than its ferocity.
One point I have tried to get across in this Substack from the very beginning is that in a war, length is far more important than ferocity.
Weekend Update #201: It Will Be A Brutal Fall and Winter Said 6 Sept 2026
Trying to hold escalation down in Ukraine did not contain the war; it lengthened it and made it worse.
Trying to artificially restrain escalation has led the war to be far more horrible and extensive than it needed to be.
Weekend Update #201: It Will Be A Brutal Fall and Winter Said 6 Sept 2026
The American military is being run on the Russian model rather than the Ukrainian one, and it should be rebuilt on the Ukrainian principles instead.
The US military is being run by a group that apes the Russians and not the Ukrainians—when we have in front of us one of the best statements of command principles I have ever seen from the latter.
Weekend Update #201: It Will Be A Brutal Fall and Winter Said 6 Sept 2026
Show 8 more
Russia's 2026 summer offensive failed: it took almost no ground while losing more soldiers than Russia can recruit.
What we are seeing is a summer offensive of failure.
Weekend Update #200: Summer Is Ending, The Russian Offensive Is A Failure So Far Said 30 Aug 2026
States do not behave like predators by nature, and the American alliance system is the standing proof of it.
If there is one thing we can say that has been shown, it is that states do not behave like this by nature.
Weekend Update #200: Summer Is Ending, The Russian Offensive Is A Failure So Far Said 30 Aug 2026
Ukraine's deep-strike campaign should be aimed at Russia's fuel system above every other target, because that is what takes money away from the war machine.
It is not because it affects Russian morale, or causes inconvenience, it is because ultimately it is the best way to take away the one thing all war machines need—money.
Weekend Update #199: Ukraine's Campaign Against Russian Oil Infrastructure Should Be The Focus Said 23 Aug 2026
Without the ability to sell fuel abroad Russia is not a great power and not even a medium economic power.
Russia without the ability to raise money by exporting fuel is not only not a great power, it is not a medium economic power.
Weekend Update #199: Ukraine's Campaign Against Russian Oil Infrastructure Should Be The Focus Said 23 Aug 2026
Believing that Trump might yet help Ukraine is not harmless optimism: it is part of a manoeuvre that buys Putin time.
In other words, it is not harmless optimism to act like Trump might help Ukraine, it is falling for a deadly, pro-Putin maneuver that is and will increasingly lead to Ukrainian suffering.
Weekend Update #199: Ukraine's Campaign Against Russian Oil Infrastructure Should Be The Focus Said 23 Aug 2026
Russia's allies have been more useful to Russia than Ukraine's allies have been to Ukraine.
Russia’s allies, on the other hand, have actually offered Russia support that has allowed Russia to fight the war that Russia has wanted to fight.
Weekend Update #198: Russia's Allies Are More Helpful Than Ukraine's Said 15 Aug 2026
Ukraine's partners used their aid to control and limit Ukraine, and in doing so made the war longer and bloodier than it needed to be.
They have used aid not only to help, but also to try and control and limit Ukraine. In doing this, they have helped transform this war into a longer, bloodier affair than it needed to be.
Weekend Update #198: Russia's Allies Are More Helpful Than Ukraine's Said 15 Aug 2026
The small amounts of American military aid still reaching Ukraine are a lever for controlling how Ukraine fights, not an attempt to help it win.
The USA has kept dribbling small amounts of military support for Ukraine because it gives the USA a great deal of leverage, the ability to both shape how Ukraine fights its war and even how European states prepare.
Weekend Update #198: Russia's Allies Are More Helpful Than Ukraine's Said 15 Aug 2026
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Where they publish
Newsletter Phillips's Newsletter His newsletter on strategy and the war in Ukraine. Has a feed.
Open phillipspobrien.substack.com
Recent
- The Losers From Last Night 4 Nov 2026 The Scale Of The Democratic Victory Changes Everything
- The USA Has Not Been So Insecure Since The US Civil War 2 Nov 2026 If you care about national security you cannot support the party of Donald Trump
- Weekend Update #209: The Growing Slaughter Of Ukrainian Civilians 1 Nov 2026 The Evacuation Of Oleshky And Ukrainian Identity: 500 Patriot Missiles For Ukraine--in 2030
Show 17 more
- The US Military Is On A Precipice 31 Oct 2026
- Midweek Update #33: How To Tell When You Have Lost A War 29 Oct 2026 The Israeli Elections; Populists Never Lose Elections
- Live with Phillips P. OBrien and Illia Ponomarenko 28 Oct 2026 A recording from Phillips P. OBrien's live video
- The First Military Investigation 27 Oct 2026 What Is Elon Musk Actually Saying?
- Weekend Update #208: Trump Reacts To Pressure Not Flattery 25 Oct 2026 A Study Of The Last Two Weeks
- Live with Phillips P. OBrien: AMA 24 Oct 2026 A recording from Phillips P. OBrien's live video
- Live with Phillips P. OBrien 23 Oct 2026 A recording from Phillips P. OBrien's live video
- Midweek Update#32: US and Israeli Bombing Threats Are So Political They Should Have Campaign Announcements 22 Oct 2026 The Week The US Told The Gulf States The Truth; How The US Should Pull Out Of The Middle East
- Time For A Reality Check 20 Oct 2026 Some Home Truths To Understand Where We Have Been And Where We Might Be Going
- Weekend Update #207: The US-Russia Alliance Is Signed--In Ukrainian Blood 18 Oct 2026 Ukraine Seems To Get It This Time; Ukraine Keeps Steadily Progressing In The Land War
- Trump Protects Putin From Graham-Blumenthal 17 Oct 2026 Stop Saying He Is Pivoting
- Midweek Update #31: Paying The Price For Trusting The USA 15 Oct 2026 The Spacelink/Spaceshield Sabotage of Ukraine: A Primer; A Warning to Europe and the World.
- Targeting Data Centers As An Effective Tool Of War 13 Oct 2026 It Is A Brand New World
- Weekend Update #206: Trump Is Free To Be What He Has Always Been 11 Oct 2026 Russian Strikes Against Civilians; Do Ukraine And Europe Understand What They Must Do?
- This Is About Much More Than Just Diesel 10 Oct 2026 What Really Matters From The Last Few Hours
- This Is What The End Of An “Age” Looks Like 9 Oct 2026 And The US Cannot Admit It
- Midweek Update #30: Trump Has Lost His Political Touch 7 Oct 2026 The US Pulls Back Its Bombers: More Winning, Obviously; Hegseth’s Frightening Speech
Link verified 20 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
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