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M.G. Siegler Bluesky
There are nearly an infinite range of outcomes here between being fine and being dead...
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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18 September
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korrents.com
Discourse that doesn't tolerate dissenting viewpoints inevitably produces bad outcomes.Their words
viewpoints that don't harbor dissent inevitably lead to bad outcomes.
17 September
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korrents.com
Safely routing AI tasks to cheaper models requires accumulated observation of many prior task outcomes.Their words
Routing to a cheap model is only safe if you know which tasks it clears, & that knowledge comes from watching ten thousand versions of the same work.
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korrents.com
The human mind is incredibly complex and understanding and treating the nearly infinite ways it can stumble is hard.Their words
One of the most important for me is just how incredibly complex the human mind is, and how hard the task is of understanding & treating the nearly infinite ways it can stumble/faulter.
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korrents.com
Failed U.S. attempts to secure its preferred outcomes in the Persian Gulf will keep energy prices elevated.Their words
So it does not seem as though U.S. preferences in the Persian Gulf will be achieved - which means prices in general and energy prices in particular are likely to stay high.
16 September
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Their words
The American gentry's fortunes, in other words, are in substantial part, a policy artifact.
America’s Gentry Élite: TUESDAY TRENDS & TURMOILbraddelong.substack.com
15 September
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korrents.com
Roughly half of the possible outcomes of advanced AI development would be good or great for society.Their words
There is nearly an infinite range of outcomes here between being fine and being dead. Also, many of them - probably half! - have outcomes which end up being good, if not great, for society.
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Their words
It's absolutely wild how many times Volvo has managed to refresh this platform. They are basically the same cars as in 2015/2017 but now they have 150km range plus electric and they still look amazing.
14 September
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korrents.com
Spending more on ultra-high-end audio gear does not necessarily yield better sound, just different sound.Their words
You can spend more on an integrated amp in the ultra-high-end price range, but I do not feel you will necessarily get "better" sound-just something different.
Luxman L-100 Centennial Review. Class A Returns.stevehuffphoto.com
13 September
12 September
11 September
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korrents.com
The difference between mediocre and excellent work and outcomes is predominantly one of agency.Their words
The difference between mediocre and excellent work and outcomes is predominantly one of agency.
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Usesrcmnd.app
Claude Fable 5.1Their words
We ran an extensive audit using Claude Fable 5.1, GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-6 Astra, then fixed a range of different bugs.
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Usesrcmnd.app
GPT-5.6 SolTheir words
We ran an extensive audit using Claude Fable 5.1, GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-6 Astra, then fixed a range of different bugs.
10 September
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Pharmacy FirstTheir words
That's why we're expanding Pharmacy First. The idea is simple: Qualified pharmacists can assess patients, dispense medicines and prescribe treatment for a range of common conditions, helping people get care quickly and close to home.
9 September
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korrents.com
The Canadian economy is not a miniature U.S. economy but specializes in a limited range of goods.Their words
That is, the Canadian economy isn’t a miniature version of the U.S. economy, producing the same mix of stuff on a smaller scale. Instead, Canada concentrates on producing a limited range of goods.
Adding Injury to Insult, Canada Editionpaulkrugman.substack.com
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korrents.com
There is infinite demand for intelligence.Their words
Last week it accelerated to +24.8%. It’s almost inconceivable. Infinite demand of intelligence.
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korrents.com
PC boot and BIOS keys are inconsistently assigned across the F-key range, Delete, and Escape.Their words
I really want to fix consistent boot and bios keys for PCs!!! How did we end up using the entire F-key range AND delete AND escape across the range? THIS IS MADNESS.
8 September
6 September
5 September
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korrents.com
Most of a song's useful bass information sits in the 60–120 Hz range rather than in the deepest frequencies.Their words
That area between 60-120Hz is where the most bass info lies in music today. I feel many subwoofers focus on the lowest Hz number rather than being musical, fast and invisible.
My Fave Speakers Ever and Why. Fleetwood Helios.stevehuffphoto.com
4 September
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korrents.com
Real-time AI video generation can be used to create games and worlds generated on demand instead of pre-built.Their words
Right now it is infinite slop, but it can be used to make a video game / world that is generated on demand instead of pre-built.
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Their words
In fact, conventional risk management tells us that, when consequences are severe, low-probability extreme outcomes can determine the response.
3 September
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korrents.com
A crisis is defined not by how severe a problem is but by whether it hits people powerful enough to force change.Their words
Crises aren't defined by how bad a problem is. They're defined by when the bad outcomes hit people with the ability to make a stink.
2 September
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korrents.com
Investing in strong fundamentals and invisible supports makes good outcomes follow naturallyTheir words
Invest in building strong fundamentals, invisible supports, and outcomes flow like water.
1 September
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Their words
This is the sole intrinsic thing about AI that prevents agents from truly infinite self-replication. They will be constrained by the need to find and pay for sufficient compute to run themselves.
31 August
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Their words
The level of academics that those students know is very low because the parents have basically abandoned that and said, "I care all about the life skills." For parents who really care about academics, those kids crush it.
28 August
27 August
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Their words
In verifiable domains, model capability scaling should remain unbounded. Models will simply keep improving by "absorbing more and more of the computational universe", which is infinite by construction.
20 August
19 August
15 August
From one piece How Nuclear Will Unlock Energy Abundance with Valar Atomics Founder Isaiah Taylor 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
energy being a commodity, the demand is set by the price, right? So if you can reduce the price, you increase the demand.
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Their words
And the type of risk that we are asking investors to take is um, we know the physics works. We know that there's infinite demand and how we go from here to there is technology execution. And guess what? Venture capital in the United States is the best at underwriting tech risk of anywhere in the world.
11 August
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korrents.com
AI agents will soon reach superhuman, AlphaZero-like performance across a wide range of domains.Their words
we should therefore expect AI agents to achieve AlphaZero-like, superhuman performance in a wide and expanding variety of domains.
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Their words
I think this constitution is in some sense very compatible with Claude doing huge amounts of power seeking because it thinks that will result in better outcomes.
30 July
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korrents.com
Before building on a gap in the general models, work out whether that gap survives six months or three years.Their words
Um but I I would also caution that the general models are definitely getting better at a broader and broader range of things. So you have to figure out, you know, is that thing you're working on, is that going to be a durable thing or do you think the models uh at the forefront are going to get better at that in the next six months or 12 months or is it something they're not going to be able to do for a couple years or three years? And you know, you you want to weigh that as you're as you're deciding what to work on.
28 July
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Their words
if you're starting the same startup as everybody else, it's like you get a lot of hype and you can raise a lot of money, but it's it's sort of like those are much less frequently the big option, the big outcomes.
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korrents.com
Refusing to commit is the right strategy inside a portfolio and the wrong one everywhere else in life.Their words
In investing, non-commitment leads to better than average outcomes for the typical investor.
24 July
23 July
21 July
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Their words
A capability existing is not the same as a capability being absorbed into institutions, and, perhaps most important of all, translated into outcomes people care about.
Intelligence is not the main bottleneckwritingruxandrabio.com
20 July
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Their words
I will say that the best evidence we have just says in reality don't be deficient. If you can reach that threshold of not being deficient or insufficient, maybe that's enough.
19 July
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Their words
Or the perfect way to go through feedback and leveling and compensation. But every time we saw that and we added more process, we spent more time without getting better outcomes.
17 July
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Their words
politicians acting based on what they think polls well, rather than based on what will actually produce results that make voters happy
4 June
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Their words
but of course, that's not what's happened, because as we've accumulated more wealth and you know, more advanced machines and and so on, we've expanded the range of things other than singers to spend our money on, and the share spent on singers has stayed sort of negligible. Um so likewise, that's sort of my central prediction about how future unfolds, though I it could go either way.
2 June
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Their words
I truly believe that following this kind of approach to AI in the classroom would, in the aggregate, produce better learning outcomes than the research and writing workflows available to students pre-AI.
28 April
26 April
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Their words
Design is really about, you know, empathizing with your customer, empathizing with your audience, your viewer, whoever it is, and then building something that will really resonates with them. And And that means you need to have a an extraordinary amount of range.
22 April
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Their words
But a proof can reason about potentially infinite state spaces. So, it can tell you things about like every possible thing that could possibly happen in the entire universe.
9 April
7 April
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korrents.com
Ultra-processed foods have epidemiological evidence of harm comparable to what existed for smoking.Their words
There's strong epidemiological evidence associating ultra-processed foods with a range of negative health outcomes, at least on par with the evidence we had for smoking.
0058: borrow-checking surprises, books, linksscattered-thoughts.net
31 March
11 March
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Their words
What I call vision is the ability to not only take a great idea, but shepherd it into existence, and you’re doing that through inspiration first and foremost.
28 February
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Their words
But remember that such data can only come from trials in people (mice are nice, but most animal results simply do not translate.)
22 February
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Their words
We need to accept that at best, we will just barely avoid some of the worst case scenarios (e.g., an AI-enabled biological weapon that kills billions, a rogue AI takeover, or stable global totalitarianism enabled by AI), given the current pace of AI capabilities relative to the pace of governance.
We're in Triage Mode for AI Policymilesbrundage.substack.com
18 February
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Their words
The world may be complex, but complex systems are typically controlled by a small number of highly stable invariants.
12 February
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korrents.com
Feast-or-famine corner outcomes, not modest proportional belt-tightening, are the generic result of price controls.Their words
This paper shows that feast or famine, not modest belt-tightening, is the generic outcome of price controls.
19 January
18 January
13 January
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Their words
When someone is asked to reflect on their own life, they draw on a wide range of experiences. When people are asked about “the world”, they recall a very small number of recent events (the availability bias).
20 November 2025
19 October 2025
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Their words
With great freedom comes great responsibility. You have the autonomy to choose what to work on, but there's the expectation of accountability and impact.
16 October 2025
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Their words
take prompting and as an engineer, there's a range of prompting abilities. uh the way you discretize and split up your task matters. And if you assume that uh a model can do more than it can do, then you're going to have a bad time.
12 October 2025
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Their words
modern instruments generally have more reliable tone, wider range, and better projection than traditional instruments-they are better as instruments.
First explorations in Indian classical musicandrewbatson.com
5 October 2025
29 September 2025
21 September 2025
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Their words
And so it's not really about the environment or the wall. It's really about how we see it and whether we can find the thing that is deep and rich and infinite in that direction.
4 September 2025
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Their words
These are weird and rare outcomes. These don't usually happen. The vast majority of active predation is on stuff much, much, much smaller than you.
27 August 2025
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Their words
I think that changing societal outcome requires changing minds, and the "heft" that comes from many authors with different backgrounds endorsing a certain set of conclusions is hard to replicate with a link to a shared ChatGPT chat.
3 August 2025
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Their words
From my point of view, the key priority in the world today is to get us closer to viatopia, not to some particular narrow end-state.
28 July 2025
16 July 2025
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Their words
I've always been very risk-conscious. And risk-conscious does not mean getting rid of risk. It means properly pricing it and understanding the potential outcomes.
9 July 2025
1 July 2025
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Their words
cultural engineering is extremely difficult in the 21st century: in this age of infinite personalisation, people can swipe past anything they dislike
5 May 2025
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Their words
So the idea is that they’re closer to something that you would want to map as a sound, than it’s something as a picture.
19 April 2025
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Their words
People who can be trusted to make something inevitable are really rare, and are typically the bottleneck for how many different things a team or company can do at once.
15 April 2025
6 April 2025
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korrents.com
Money cannot buy back a manufacturing capability a country has lost, because what is missing is the knowhow.Their words
Even with infinite money, we cannot duplicate that, because we lack the knowhow.
1 April 2025
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Their words
We need to leap into action on many of the same things that could help if it does turn out that we only have a few years.
7 January 2025
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korrents.com
Planning is fundamentally a search problem: explore paths, predict outcomes, and pick the best one.Their words
Planning, at its core, is a search problem. You search among different paths towards the goal, predict the outcome (reward) of each path, and pick the path with the most promising outcome.
22 December 2024
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Their words
Many of them try to pretend the measurement problem isn't there. Go to enormous lengths like the many-worlds interpretation, literally inventing an infinite number of unobservable parallel universes to avoid the thing that quantum mechanics is telling them, which is that measurements matter.
20 December 2024
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Their words
If there are ways that you can help improve the governance of AI in these and other countries, you should be doing it now or in the next few months, not planning for ways to have an impact several years from now.
7 May 2024
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Their words
That is, labs should make sure that the safety measures they apply to their powerful models prevent unacceptably bad outcomes, even if the AIs are misaligned and intentionally try to subvert those safety measures.
30 April 2024
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korrents.com
Debt is best understood as narrowing the range of outcomes you can survive, not as a cost of capital.Their words
I think this is the most practical way to think about debt: As debt increases, you narrow the range of outcomes you can endure in life.
22 March 2024
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Their words
there is an absolutely existential flaw in the system, which Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta confirmed with me, which is that our ICBMs do not have enough range. If we launch a counterattack against, say, North Korea, our ICBMs must fly over Russia. They must fly over Russia.
13 March 2024
From one piece Raising Agricultural Yields Spares Land 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Claims to the contrary could lead to a misallocation of investments and, consequently, worse environmental (and social) outcomes.
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Their words
Yield-boosting measures, however, always need to be thoughtfully paired with other measures to ensure that outcomes—environmental as well as social—are acceptable at the local level.
4 March 2024
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Their words
They aren’t designed to solve your problem, but actually aim to prevent closure, and create an illusion that there are still infinite choices available to you.
12 January 2024
1 December 2023
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Their words
In sum, whenever we don't have infinite amounts of pre-training data, we should train smaller models for more (up to 4) epochs.
24 October 2023
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Going Infinite: The Rise and Fall of a New TycoonTheir words
Going Infinite is awesome. I would have been happy with my decision on the basis of any one of the following:
10 October 2023
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Likedrcmnd.app
Finite and Infinite GamesTheir words
So abstract. Maybe the most abstract book you’ll ever read. Compares “finite” games with rules and winners, versus “infinite” games without winners where we can play with the game itself. Is it about a job versus a calling? Religion versus spirituality? A story versus story-telling? Who knows. Thought-provoking if you can apply the metaphor to whatever concerns you.
1 October 2023
1 September 2023
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Their words
With silkworms, absolutely let's not modify it genetically. Let's not modify it genetically. And then some. Because why did we get there to begin with 4,000 years ago in the Silk Road? And we should never get to a point where we evolve life for the service of mankind at the risk of these wonderful creatures across the across the kingdom of life. I don't think about the same kind of ethical range when I think about bacteria.
12 August 2023
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Their words
Instead of decades to centuries, I now see it as 5 to 20 years with 90% confidence.
15 March 2023
13 March 2023
21 September 2022
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korrents.com
People don't really control most outcomes, so the sensible response to events is to look for the good in them.Their words
We don't really control anything anyway, so we may as well find the good in things.
15 July 2022
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Their words
So there are sharp limits to how much extra range an army can get by adding carrying capacity; in practice about a month and a half’s logistics buffer is the maximum that’s possible and even doing that is expensive.
8 July 2022
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Their words
The drone-like architecture of the multicopters is simple, but as the rotors are responsible for keeping the unit at a constant altitude with hover power, they represent an energy-intensive version of VTOLs. Their range is, therefore, short, typically less than 20 miles.
22 June 2022
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Likedrcmnd.app
Infinite JestTheir words
It's incredibly written, deeply complex, confusing as hell, and you'll probably throw it at the wall when it's done. But then you'll kinda go "okay... I'm glad I did that" and maybe start it again.
1 June 2022
28 May 2022
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Usesrcmnd.app
Lucide IconsTheir words
Collection of open-source icons for use in web and mobile applications. Provides a wide range of icons for various use cases.
4 April 2022
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Their words
When you take venture funding, you sign up for a rocket ship ride that will either take you to the moon or to crash-land painfully back on earth. Those are the only two choices. And both rides tend to require heavy extraction of value from the customer.
Announcing RedwoodJS 1.0 and $1M Fundingtom.preston-werner.com
11 December 2021
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Their words
We as a profession misunderstand and misuse the concept of backwards compatibility, both upstream and downstream, by focusing on narrow legalistic definitions instead of outcomes.
22 November 2021
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
RationalityTheir words
Steven Pinker, Rationality – the joy of this book (other than Pinker’s playful wit) is the sheer range.
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Think AgainTheir words
Adam Grant, Think Again – Grant is always witty and humane, but assembles a terrific range of ideas and research to analyse and overcome the obstacles to rethinking our own views and (even harder) persuading others to rethink theirs.
9 November 2021
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korrents.com
The e-bike market has no cheap standard model, which is what it would take to make the e-bike a mass product.Their words
E-bikes range in price from $1000 to $10,000. The market is still lacking a Toyota Corolla equivalent.
1 September 2021
1 April 2021
8 December 2020
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Likedrcmnd.app
RangeTheir words
I learned this from reading a good, myth-debunking book called Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World.
20 October 2020
1 June 2020
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Recommendsaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Infinite Powers: How Calculus Reveals the Secrets of the UniverseTheir words
This is another wonderful book aiming to popularize calculus (2019 was a good year for that goal). What I enjoyed about this one is how broad a view Strogatz takes of the origins of calculus, ranging from the clever proofs Archimedes was developing up to Fourier's study of heat.
18 November 2019
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Their words
Air pollution is a very big deal. Its adverse effects on numerous health outcomes and general mortality are widely documented. However, our understanding of its cognitive costs is more recent and those costs are almost certainly still significantly under-emphasized. For example, cognitive effects are not mentioned in most EPA materials.
5 November 2019
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Their words
If intelligence lies in the process of acquiring skills, then there is no task X such that skill at X demonstrates intelligence, unless X is actually a meta-task involving skill-acquisition across a broad range of tasks.
16 September 2019
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Infinite Powers: The Story of CalculusTheir words
I learned so much from this book, mostly about the history not just of calculus but of our subject, mathematics, in general.
31 October 2018
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Their words
On the other hand, by avoiding foundations, projects also avoid the question of how to formalize their governance, thus risking a “tyranny of structurelessness” that might range from projects living inside a company forever, to disorganized chaos that negatively impacts project velocity.
30 August 2018
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Their words
The work of Philip Tetlock, PhD and others has shown that people who have one big idea to explain everything (“hedgehogs” or ideologues) are very bad at accurately modeling the world, predicting outcomes, and recommending effective actions.
1 July 2017
4 January 2017
Nothing matches.
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