Andrew Batson
China economy researcher based in Beijing who writes on his personal blog about Chinese political economy, history, books and music.
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What they believe
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China's real exchange rate should appreciate through higher domestic inflation, not currency revaluation.
My view is that an appreciation of China's REER is very much to be desired, but the real (haha) way to get there is through higher inflation domestically, and that means different macro policies.
andrewbatson.comSaid 1 Aug 2026This on korrents
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A declining manufacturing share of GDP as an economy matures reflects economic success rather than decline.
Both of these trends are a consequence of economic success, in terms of higher output and productivity: at least some of what is decried as "de-industrialization" is good actually. It is also good for China's planners to recognize that reality and not distort the economy in pursuit of an impossible outcome.
andrewbatson.comSaid 23 Nov 2025This on korrents
The bold line is korrents’ wording; the quote is theirs. These 2: what they wrote before what they said aloud, one per source, newest first.
Feed
As its own page →Hiding
10 October
21 September
25 August
20 August
12 August
10 August
9 August
6 August
1 August
From one piece Real talk about the exchange rate 3 beliefs · andrewbatson.com
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korrents.com
China's tolerance of deflation has caused widespread underemployment and unemployment among its youth.Their words
Policy decisions have condemned a generation of Chinese youth to widespread under- and un-employment.
-
korrents.com
Complaining about China's trade surpluses and excess capacity has not worked and will not work.Their words
I think complaining about trade surpluses and excess capacity has not worked, and is not going to work.
-
korrents.com
China's real exchange rate should appreciate through higher domestic inflation, not currency revaluation.Their words
My view is that an appreciation of China's REER is very much to be desired, but the real (haha) way to get there is through higher inflation domestically, and that means different macro policies.
30 July
29 July
28 July
19 July
18 July
28 December 2025
16 December 2025
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Red HarvestTheir words
I re-read all of Hammett's novels this year, and this, his first, held up the best.
-
Likedrcmnd.app
The Adventures of Huckleberry FinnTheir words
Twain's original is, still, the better book.
-
Lovedrcmnd.app
OrbitalTheir words
One of the most perfectly crafted pieces of prose I've ever read; short, basically plotless, almost unbearably intense.
+ 11 more
-
Likedrcmnd.app
Cahokia JazzTheir words
A hard-boiled mystery set in an alternative 1920s America, by turns familiar and strange.
-
Lovedrcmnd.app
Crossing to SafetyTheir words
Stegner's last, great work is an understated, closely observed portrait of the relationship between two couples.
-
Recommendsrcmnd.app
The Ebb-TideTheir words
Stevenson's last published novel is not particularly famous but deserves to be better known.
-
Lovedrcmnd.app
The Lantern-Bearers and Other EssaysTheir words
Stevenson is best known as a novelist, but I think I prefer his nonfiction: he had an interesting life and was interested in lots of things, and the sentences are marvelous and daring.
-
Likedrcmnd.app
The Lumumba PlotTheir words
Nominally a biography of Patrice Lumumba, this book is actually a gripping, blow-by-blow account of how the Congo stumbled to independence from Belgian rule.
-
Lovedrcmnd.app
The Indian IdeologyTheir words
Out of all the reading on India I did this year to prepare for my first visit, this was my favorite: compact, punchy, and argumentative, packed with erudition and information.
-
Likedrcmnd.app
Specimen DaysTheir words
Tying them all together is Whitman's love for the American landscape and people, and his unique voice, so fresh he still seems like a contemporary.
-
Likedrcmnd.app
The Secret of Our SuccessTheir words
Not every plank in his argument is convincing, and the research has evolved since the book first came out a decade ago, but the ambition is impressive and the framework holds up.
-
Likedrcmnd.app
The Wide Wide SeaTheir words
The causes and meaning of those events have been debated ever since, and Sides delivers a careful, sympathetic and engaging account of the entirety of Cook's final expedition.
-
Likedrcmnd.app
I Deliver Parcels in BeijingTheir words
Perhaps the best of the various gig-worker memoirs published in recent years.
-
Likedrcmnd.app
Disputing Disaster: A Sextet on the Great WarTheir words
I also enjoyed Anderson's Disputing Disaster: A Sextet on the Great War
23 November 2025
From one piece China bows to de-industrialization 2 beliefs · andrewbatson.com
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Their words
There's even a case to be made that those policies actually depressed the manufacturing share of GDP: by boosting output and capacity above where they would have been otherwise, subsidies probably contributed to the sustained decline in prices for China's manufactured goods over the past few years, weighing on their share of nominal output.
-
korrents.com
A declining manufacturing share of GDP as an economy matures reflects economic success rather than decline.Their words
Both of these trends are a consequence of economic success, in terms of higher output and productivity: at least some of what is decried as "de-industrialization" is good actually. It is also good for China's planners to recognize that reality and not distort the economy in pursuit of an impossible outcome.
19 October 2025
From one piece Exams are everything in China 2 beliefs · andrewbatson.com
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korrents.com
Centralized, hierarchical competitive tournaments are effective at creating strong incentives.Their words
Also, centralized hierarchical tournaments seem to be good at creating very effective incentives.
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korrents.com
A government's political legitimacy depends on providing a fair, merit-based channel for social advancement.Their words
One possible reading of the last century or so of political history in China, therefore, is that governments who provide a meritocratic channel for social advancement have legitimacy and popular support, and governments who do not provide one, do not.
12 October 2025
From one piece First explorations in Indian classical music 2 beliefs · andrewbatson.com
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korrents.com
For listeners, shorter pieces are usually more enjoyable than long, unedited improvisationsTheir words
Improvisers can be prolix and reluctant to edit themselves, but for listeners shorter is usually better.
First explorations in Indian classical musicandrewbatson.com
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Their words
modern instruments generally have more reliable tone, wider range, and better projection than traditional instruments-they are better as instruments.
First explorations in Indian classical musicandrewbatson.com
29 August 2025
From one piece Historical trajectories of local government in India and China 2 beliefs · andrewbatson.com
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korrents.com
Competition and experimentation among local officials has been a major driver of China's economic growth.Their words
China does much better in basic service delivery-and its local governments have also played a very obvious and important in driving growth, thanks to the competition and experimentation among local officials driven to develop their jurisdictions.
-
korrents.com
China's stronger local-level state capacity than India's helps explain their diverging long-run economic performance.Their words
On this measure, state capacity at the local level looks much stronger in China than in India, which helps explain some of the long-running economic differences between them.
13 August 2025
From one piece Who believes in China’s output gap? 2 beliefs · andrewbatson.com
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Their words
But for a variety of reasons I think it makes more sense to stay agnostic about forecasts of potential GDP growth, and focus more on the signals the current performance of the economy is sending.
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korrents.com
China faces a genuine, sizable output gap right now, not just a lower structural growth ceiling.Their words
I'm with the markets here: I believe in the output gap. The structural slowdown of the Chinese economy is an incredibly consensus view, and I believe in it too.
5 August 2025
28 July 2025
Nothing matches.
Beliefs
Korrents What they believe 13 beliefs — each backed by an exact quote.
Each is a — compiled by korrents.com, not by them: the one-line wordings are korrents', the quotes are theirs.
Recent
China's real exchange rate should appreciate through higher domestic inflation, not currency revaluation.
My view is that an appreciation of China's REER is very much to be desired, but the real (haha) way to get there is through higher inflation domestically, and that means different macro policies.
Real talk about the exchange rate Said 1 Aug 2026
Complaining about China's trade surpluses and excess capacity has not worked and will not work.
I think complaining about trade surpluses and excess capacity has not worked, and is not going to work.
Real talk about the exchange rate Said 1 Aug 2026
China's tolerance of deflation has caused widespread underemployment and unemployment among its youth.
Policy decisions have condemned a generation of Chinese youth to widespread under- and un-employment.
Real talk about the exchange rate Said 1 Aug 2026
Show 10 more
A declining manufacturing share of GDP as an economy matures reflects economic success rather than decline.
Both of these trends are a consequence of economic success, in terms of higher output and productivity: at least some of what is decried as "de-industrialization" is good actually. It is also good for China's planners to recognize that reality and not distort the economy in pursuit of an impossible outcome.
China bows to de-industrialization Said 23 Nov 2025
Manufacturing subsidies that push output and capacity above natural levels can depress prices enough to shrink manufacturing's share of GDP.
There's even a case to be made that those policies actually depressed the manufacturing share of GDP: by boosting output and capacity above where they would have been otherwise, subsidies probably contributed to the sustained decline in prices for China's manufactured goods over the past few years, weighing on their share of nominal output.
China bows to de-industrialization Said 23 Nov 2025
A government's political legitimacy depends on providing a fair, merit-based channel for social advancement.
One possible reading of the last century or so of political history in China, therefore, is that governments who provide a meritocratic channel for social advancement have legitimacy and popular support, and governments who do not provide one, do not.
Exams are everything in China Said 19 Oct 2025
Centralized, hierarchical competitive tournaments are effective at creating strong incentives.
Also, centralized hierarchical tournaments seem to be good at creating very effective incentives.
Exams are everything in China Said 19 Oct 2025
Modern instruments generally have more reliable tone, range, and projection than the traditional instruments they replace
modern instruments generally have more reliable tone, wider range, and better projection than traditional instruments-they are better as instruments.
First explorations in Indian classical music Said 12 Oct 2025
For listeners, shorter pieces are usually more enjoyable than long, unedited improvisations
Improvisers can be prolix and reluctant to edit themselves, but for listeners shorter is usually better.
First explorations in Indian classical music Said 12 Oct 2025
China's stronger local-level state capacity than India's helps explain their diverging long-run economic performance.
On this measure, state capacity at the local level looks much stronger in China than in India, which helps explain some of the long-running economic differences between them.
Historical trajectories of local government in India and China Said 29 Aug 2025
Competition and experimentation among local officials has been a major driver of China's economic growth.
China does much better in basic service delivery-and its local governments have also played a very obvious and important in driving growth, thanks to the competition and experimentation among local officials driven to develop their jurisdictions.
Historical trajectories of local government in India and China Said 29 Aug 2025
China faces a genuine, sizable output gap right now, not just a lower structural growth ceiling.
I'm with the markets here: I believe in the output gap. The structural slowdown of the Chinese economy is an incredibly consensus view, and I believe in it too.
Who believes in China’s output gap? Said 13 Aug 2025
When assessing an economy's trajectory, current performance signals are more useful than forecasts of potential GDP growth.
But for a variety of reasons I think it makes more sense to stay agnostic about forecasts of potential GDP growth, and focus more on the signals the current performance of the economy is sending.
Who believes in China’s output gap? Said 13 Aug 2025
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Recommends rcmnd
rcmnd What they recommend 14 things — each backed by an exact quote.
Compiled by rcmnd.app, not by them: the quotes are theirs, and each links to the post it was copied from.
Recent
Liked Disputing Disaster: A Sextet on the Great War
I also enjoyed Anderson's Disputing Disaster: A Sextet on the Great War
andrewbatson.com 16 Dec 2025
What others say about Disputing Disaster: A Sextet on the Great War →
Liked I Deliver Parcels in Beijing
Perhaps the best of the various gig-worker memoirs published in recent years.
andrewbatson.com 16 Dec 2025
Liked The Wide Wide Sea
The causes and meaning of those events have been debated ever since, and Sides delivers a careful, sympathetic and engaging account of the entirety of Cook's final expedition.
andrewbatson.com 16 Dec 2025
Show 11 more
Liked The Secret of Our Success
Not every plank in his argument is convincing, and the research has evolved since the book first came out a decade ago, but the ambition is impressive and the framework holds up.
andrewbatson.com 16 Dec 2025
Liked Specimen Days
Tying them all together is Whitman's love for the American landscape and people, and his unique voice, so fresh he still seems like a contemporary.
andrewbatson.com 16 Dec 2025
Loved The Indian Ideology
Out of all the reading on India I did this year to prepare for my first visit, this was my favorite: compact, punchy, and argumentative, packed with erudition and information.
andrewbatson.com 16 Dec 2025
Liked The Lumumba Plot
Nominally a biography of Patrice Lumumba, this book is actually a gripping, blow-by-blow account of how the Congo stumbled to independence from Belgian rule.
andrewbatson.com 16 Dec 2025
Loved The Lantern-Bearers and Other Essays
Stevenson is best known as a novelist, but I think I prefer his nonfiction: he had an interesting life and was interested in lots of things, and the sentences are marvelous and daring.
andrewbatson.com 16 Dec 2025
What others say about The Lantern-Bearers and Other Essays →
Recommends The Ebb-Tide
Stevenson's last published novel is not particularly famous but deserves to be better known.
andrewbatson.com 16 Dec 2025
Loved Crossing to Safety
Stegner's last, great work is an understated, closely observed portrait of the relationship between two couples.
andrewbatson.com 16 Dec 2025
Liked Cahokia Jazz
A hard-boiled mystery set in an alternative 1920s America, by turns familiar and strange.
andrewbatson.com 16 Dec 2025
Loved Orbital
One of the most perfectly crafted pieces of prose I've ever read; short, basically plotless, almost unbearably intense.
andrewbatson.com 16 Dec 2025
Liked The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn
Twain's original is, still, the better book.
andrewbatson.com 16 Dec 2025
Loved Red Harvest
I re-read all of Hammett's novels this year, and this, his first, held up the best.
andrewbatson.com 16 Dec 2025
Where they publish
Blog andrewbatson.com His personal blog on China's political economy, plus annual best-books and best-music posts.
Recent
- Real talk about the exchange rate 1 Aug 2026 (This post reproduces a thread I wrote on Twitter/X on July 29.) A lot of the discussion about the depreciation of/undervaluation of China’s real effective exchange rate takes for granted that this is about the currency…
- The best music I heard in 2025 28 Dec 2025 Another good year for music. Thanks to some lucky coincidences I saw the Sun Ra Arkestra, led by Knoell Scott, three times this year. Every show was different, and each a fun and life-affirming musical experience—see th…
- The best books I read in 2025 17 Dec 2025 Here are the most memorable of the books I read this year, listed in roughly the order I read them. It seems like reading 19th century authors was a theme in the culture this year, and I ended up participating in this t…
Show 7 more
- China bows to de-industrialization 23 Nov 2025 Reading China’s five-year plans, one of the most immediately striking things is just how many things they attempt to plan. These are not just documents about where to build airports or highways (although such proposals…
- Exams are everything in China 19 Oct 2025 The first people you meet in life are your parents. That simple fact makes the family the foundational institution of society: learning how to be a person, and what other people are like, happens first in the family. Af…
- First explorations in Indian classical music 12 Oct 2025 Two things happened this year to convince me to do some more intentional listening to Indian classical music, which I had long been aware of but had never really “got.” The first was the untimely death of Zakir Hussain,…
- Historical trajectories of local government in India and China 29 Aug 2025 After doing a round of India-China comparisons that focused on commonly cited macro indicators like manufacturing, investment and literacy (see last month’s post “India and the invidious comparison with China“), I wante…
- Who believes in China’s output gap? 13 Aug 2025 I recently wrote a piece at my job, and somewhat unusually for us, it’s come out from behind the paywall so that everyone can read it. Here’s the opening: There are two statements about China’s economy that receive broa…
- Readings on India 5 Aug 2025 Around my trip to India I did some not-very-systematic reading, and had pretty good luck. All of these books were worth reading and helpful in different ways:
- India and the invidious comparison with China 28 Jul 2025 In June I went to India for the first time. It was a quick trip, just a week, but I still got a pretty intense introduction to current debates on the Indian economy at the India Policy Forum in Delhi. As a China special…
Link verified 4 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
x.com @andrewbatson His X account.
Recent
- I made my nine. Not my favorite albums exactly, though I do love them, but my formative ones—the ones that opened my ears up to all the sound worlds I enjoy today. 10 Oct 2026
- The most unexpected pairing of author and subject I’ve seen lately 21 Sept 2026
- Everybody is sharing their favorite Dolly clips. This is one of mine, of her singing harmony with Doc Watson in a backstage rehearsal. Two giants of American music, relaxed and at home with each other. 25 Aug 2026 youtube.com
Show 13 more
- This is terrible, Chris was one of the greats 20 Aug 2026
- “Zhu shored up state power instead of letting it go” is the correct take on his legacy 12 Aug 2026
- Sadly American culture has become more humorless since this was written 12 Aug 2026
- The Sanxingdui relics are some of the most beautiful and amazing ancient artifacts in the world, very much worth seeing in person 10 Aug 2026
- “Trump tuba tariffs” is such a gift to headline writers 9 Aug 2026
- Li Daokui's comments are important because there are so few domestic voices in China stating what (I think) is the obvious truth about the economy: the main problem is that aggregate demand is weak, growth is running below potential and macro policies are inappropriate. This is not a novel, original or unusual insight: it's what lots of people (myself and others) have been saying for years, and is also in the most recent of the much-maligned IMF reports on China. But it runs directly contrary to the official government diagnosis which is that aggregate demand is fine and the economy mainly su… 6 Aug 2026
- Just listened to this last night, it’s a great record (if not quite at the exalted level of the original Sangam album). Charles Lloyd and Zakir Hussain made one of the best combinations of jazz and Indian music 6 Aug 2026
- A great list, and not just because my friends are on it 30 Jul 2026
- A lot of the discussion about the depreciation of/undervaluation of China's real effective exchange rate takes for granted that this is about the currency. After all, it's called the "exchange rate"! But it's actually not. Mostly, it's about prices. A rant 1/ 29 Jul 2026
- Excellent piece, very clear and accurate. Just what I've been saying! China's weak real effective exchange rate is a consequence of bad domestic macro policies, and appreciating the nominal rate without different macro policies won't get rid of deflationary pressures 28 Jul 2026
- A promising pairing of authors and subject: Christopher Priest, the British author of mind-bending fictions, finished most of a biography of JG Ballard, another author of mind-bending fictions, before his death, which was completed by his partner Nina Allan, also such an author. 19 Jul 2026
- Waiting for someone to dig up the UK statements protesting Chinese nationalizations in 1956 18 Jul 2026
- Dongbei culture is the best culture 1 Jul 2026
Link verified 4 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
LinkedIn in/andrewgbatson His professional profile.
Link verified 4 Sept 2026.
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