Related posts
probabilities ensemble describes
The the words it uses that this site has seen
least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone —
nothing here is a summary of this one.
Sources
All x.com YouTube Korrents Blog Recommends
Top people
Emmanuel Macron
Mark Carney
Robin Hanson
Patrick Collison
Noah Smith
François Chollet
Nathan Lambert
Armin Ronacher
Olivier Blanchard
Amjad Masad
Sabine Hossenfelder
Daniel Stenberg
Showing Profile →
Show everything
Hiding Show them again
Show them again
Further back ↓
Hiding Show them again
20 September
President of the French Republic since 2017.
Bienvenue à Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, cher voisin @MarkJCarney ! Moment historique. Première visite officielle d’un Premier ministre canadien sur cette terre française d’Amérique du Nord. Dans un monde en crise, notre amitié est une force. Nous affirmons ensemble notre souveraineté, notre liberté de décider et notre volonté de bâtir un avenir de paix et de prospérité. English, from French Welcome to Saint Pierre and Miquelon, dear neighbor @MarkJCarney! Historic moment. First official visit by a Canadian Prime Minister to this French land in North America. In a world in crisis, our friendship is a strength. Together we affirm our sovereignty, our freedom to decide, and our will to build a future of peace and prosperity.
Related
18 September
Prime Minister of Canada since March 2025; formerly governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.
Short L’Europe et le Canada sont forts séparément. L’Europe et le Canada sont encore plus forts ensemble. Europe Related
17 September
Economist at George Mason University. Writes Overcoming Bias on prediction markets, signalling and the far future, and wrote The Age of Em and The Elephant in the Brain.
I asked this question as someone I might debate claimed that God existing is an example of an unverifiable fact, for which one needn't have probabilities. Quoting @robinhanson Do you think it is possible, if God exists, that he (or she or whatever) could clearly prove to you that he exists? So that you'd then assign >99.9% chance to his existing? Related
President of the French Republic since 2017.
Paris est aujourd’hui le lieu où nos partenaires se réunissent pour renforcer la souveraineté du Liban et lui permettre d’assurer pleinement sa sécurité. Un Liban en paix, c’est un espoir qui renaît pour tout le Moyen-Orient. Un Liban souverain et stable, c’est un pas décisif vers la paix et la stabilité de toute la région. Avec le Président libanais et le Roi de Jordanie, et en étroite coordination avec les États-Unis, l’Arabie saoudite et nos partenaires internationaux, nous soutenons les Forces armées libanaises, indispensables pour affirmer l’autorité de l’État libanais sur l’ensemble de… English, from French Paris is today the place where our partners are meeting to strengthen Lebanon's sovereignty and enable it to fully ensure its security. A Lebanon at peace is a renewed hope for the entire Middle East. A sovereign and stable Lebanon is a decisive step towards the peace and stability of the entire region. With the Lebanese President and the King of Jordan, and in close coordination with the United States, Saudi Arabia and our international partners, we are supporting the Lebanese Armed Forces, which are essential for asserting the authority of the Lebanese state over all of…
Related
15 September
President of the French Republic since 2017.
Très fier de rencontrer à Orange les jeunes de la première promotion du Service national. Se former. Faire corps. Se dépasser. Servir la France. Pour cette année de lancement, 3000 jeunes volontaires de 18 à 25 ans serviront pendant dix mois sous l’uniforme, avec le statut militaire. Face au retour des menaces, nous continuons de renforcer nos armées. En dix ans, leur budget aura doublé. Nous renforçons aussi notre capacité à tenir ensemble. En assurant des missions utiles à notre défense, le Service national y contribue. Il rapproche notre jeunesse de ses armées et donne à une génération les… English, from French Very proud to meet the young people of the first cohort of National Service at Orange. To train. To bond. To push themselves. To serve France. For this launch year, 3,000 young volunteers aged 18 to 25 will serve for ten months in uniform, with military status. Faced with the return of threats, we continue to strengthen our armies. In ten years, their budget will have doubled. We are also strengthening our ability to stick together. By carrying out missions useful to our defense, National Service contributes to this. It brings our youth closer to its armies and gives a generation the…
Related
14 September
President of the French Republic since 2017.
Aux côtés du Premier ministre irakien Ali Faleh Al-Zaidi, qui a choisi la France pour la première étape de sa tournée européenne. Un choix qui compte et montre que la France peut jouer un rôle d’équilibre. Agir pour la stabilité de la région, c’est défendre les intérêts des Français. Sécuriser nos approvisionnements énergétiques en travaillant à la désescalade et en développant des routes alternatives au détroit d’Ormuz, c’est réduire la pression sur le prix à la pompe. Développer notre coopération de défense et de sécurité avec nos partenaires, c’est continuer ensemble la lutte sans relâche… English, from French Alongside the Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh Al-Zaidi, who chose France for the first stop on his European tour. A choice that matters and shows that France can play a balancing role. Acting for the stability of the region means defending the interests of the French people. Securing our energy supplies by working towards de-escalation and developing alternative routes to the Strait of Hormuz means reducing pressure on pump prices. Developing our defense and security cooperation with our partners means continuing the relentless fight together…
Related
12 September
Co-founder and CEO of Stripe and co-founder of the Arc Institute. Keeps a personal site of reading lists, open questions and notes on scientific progress and how research is funded.
Stimulating piece on Scottish education in @asteriskmgzn: https://t.co/jyTk8uTT1J. I suspect that discussions of canon, culture, and shared context to return to the fore in the coming years, as many skills, narrowly-construed, are ceded to AI, and as some of the excesses of de-Arnoldization, and the processes that Arendt described in her writing on education, start to recede. I’m curious on the causal linkage between PISA scores and the reforms he describes. It feels like a very exciting time to be a theorist of education, and I assume that the best work will come from surprising places. Related
11 September
Economics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletter.
Their words
most surveys find that the median AI researcher forecasts about a 5% chance of extinction or similar "doom" from AI, while the mean probability is much higher -- around 15-20% -- due to a smallish group who give very high probabilities of doom.
Show the whole quote
@Noahpinion on X x.com
10 September
President of the French Republic since 2017.
Heureux de vous accueillir à Paris, Président Tô Lâm. Plus que des mots, nous avons donné du concret à notre partenariat stratégique global grâce à de nombreux accords signés aujourd'hui. C'est l'intensité de notre relation historique mais aussi l'accélération de ce lien qui rend l'amitié et l'estime de la France à l'égard du Vietnam plus vive encore. Nous souhaitons faire encore davantage ensemble. English, from French Happy to welcome you to Paris, President Tô Lâm. More than words, we have given substance to our global strategic partnership thanks to numerous agreements signed today. It is the intensity of our historic relationship but also the acceleration of this link that makes France's friendship and esteem for Vietnam even more vivid. We wish to do even more together.
Related
Creator of the Keras deep-learning library and the ARC-AGI benchmark.
"Symbolic learning" is simply "machine learning" (automatically learn function x -> y given examples of (x, y) pairs), but where the substrate is symbolic, i.e. the functions you learn are code-like, not curve-like. The term is in opposition to "parametric learning" or "curve-fitting". Symbolic learning does not mean that the system avoids numbers or probabilities. It means its learned representation are discrete, explicit, parsimonious, code-like. Related
Machine-learning researcher on open language models; writes the Interconnects newsletter and the RLHF Book, after leading post-training at Ai2.
Their words
I put the probability of complete extinction as being so low it isn't worth discussing, but the probabilities of AI caused disasters - e.g. cyber attacks on critical infrastructure or bio-risks - as being worth debating.
Show the whole quote
interconnects.ai
7 September
Creator of Flask and Jinja. Writes about software at lucumr.pocoo.org.
6 September
Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.
Quelle eloquence ! Quelle incomprehension de l'economie ! (ou peut-etre quel cynisme? Comment distinguer entre les deux?) Je me permets de reproduire le debut mon article du Monde, avec Quentin Vandeweyer, sur l'annulation de la dette detenue par la banque centrale. Le point de base est simple: Au mieux, ca ne sert a rien. Les details sont plus compliques, mais ne changent pas la conclusion, ou la rendent pire. Une mesure a eviter a tout prix. " Pierre et Paul possèdent ensemble une entreprise. Vous êtes le banquier de celle-ci et vous lui avez prêté de l’argent. Vous apprenez un matin que Pi… English, from French What eloquence! What a misunderstanding of economics! (or perhaps what cynicism? How to distinguish between the two?) I take the liberty of reproducing the beginning of my article in Le Monde, with Quentin Vandeweyer, on the cancellation of debt held by the central bank. The basic point is simple: At best, it's useless. The details are more complicated, but they don't change the conclusion, or they make it worse. A measure to be avoided at all costs. "Pierre and Paul together own a company. You are its banker and you have lent it money. You learn one morning that Pi...
lemonde.fr
Quoting @JLMelenchon La Banque centrale européenne possède une quantité énorme de dette de l'État français. Je propose à tous les États de la zone euro d'annuler cette dette détenue par la BCE. Nous sommes tous membres du système euro, c'est donc une dette que nous nous devons à nous-mêmes. L'officialité médiatique a t… Related
4 September
Founder and chief executive of Replit. Previously an engineer at Facebook and Codecademy. Writes essays on programming, philosophy and entrepreneurship at amasad.me.
Marvin Minsky wrote about this in The Emotion Machine. Emotions are a core part of human intelligence, not some epiphenomenal side effect of human evolution (which presumably many AI folks believe it is). Minsky describes a selector of sorts for different thinking strategies. Quoting @danysvnt OPENAI COFOUNDER SAYS EMOTIONS MAY BE WHY WE CAN MAKE DECISIONS ilya brings up a guy who lost emotional processing after brain damage. he could still talk normally and solve problems, but somehow became terrible at making basic decisions "It would take him hours to decide on which socks to wear." w… Related
19 August
Physicist and science communicator. Writes Backreaction and makes videos explaining new physics and astronomy results, frequently to argue that the headline about them overstates the case.
27 July
Swedish open source developer; creator and lead maintainer of curl and libcurl, and a co-founder of the Rockbox project.
HTTP Message Signatures with curl The recently published RFC 9421 describes how to do HTTP Message Signatures, and starting just now, curl experimentally supports them. Message Signatures The specification describes this as a mechanism for creating, enc…
Related
28 April
Co-founder of Foundry Group and of Techstars. Has blogged at Feld Thoughts since 2004 and has written or co-written nine non-fiction books on startups and venture capital.
25 January
Founder of WP Engine and Smart Bear; writes A Smart Bear, long essays on strategy, pricing and how startups actually fail.
Their words
But the truth is we don't know what the probability is. We don't know what the probability curves look like. We actually can't use expected value.
Show the whole quote
youtube.com
30 March 2025
Professor at Carnegie Mellon working on self-driving-car safety; writes Safe Autonomy on how autonomous vehicles are and are not shown to be safe.
23 March 2025
Founder and chief executive of Superhuman, the email client; previously founder of Rapportive, which he sold to LinkedIn; a professional game designer before that.
Their words
So, this is a technique that I call the switch log. And it's born out of the observation that your calendar says what you thought you were going to do, but it's really only your trail of work that describes what you actually did.
Show the whole quote
youtube.com
17 December 2024
Venture capitalist and founder of Theory Ventures, previously a partner at Redpoint. Writes a near-daily blog on startups, SaaS metrics, data and AI.
Their words
Rovelli describes quantum concepts in an approachable way.
Show the whole quote
tomtunguz.com
Nothing matches. Show everything
A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one
sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at
korrents.com .
Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said.
The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in
korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who
else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public
statements, and a person can change their mind, which is recorded too.
Got it
About the English under a post
Some people here publish in a language other than English. Where they
do, this site shows a machine translation beneath the post, in
this typeface — the site's own, not theirs.
The post itself is never changed, moved or hidden: what is set in the
serif above is exactly what the person published, and it is what to
quote them on. A translation can be wrong in ways that matter,
especially about tone.
Only the post's own words are translated. A quoted post, a linked
article and a belief on korrents.com
are left in their original language.
Got it