A model looking like it is becoming smarter, attempting shenanigans less often, and more often doing what you want, but getting better at hiding its actions when it wants to do that, is exactly the scary combination.
Nuclear's never had its Ford moment or its Tesla moment, if you want to put it that way. And that's what Valor Atomics is working on doing. We have nuclear reactors that are more manufactured than constructed and uh they're extremely safe and we think the combination of these two things is going to allow us to scale nuclear fision and make energy 10 times cheaper for humanity.
common failure mode is picking the tech that gives you the fastest early ramp, riding that steep curve, feeling like you're winning, projecting that, you know, steep slope into the future and feeling like the sky is the limit, and then hitting the plateau, and discovering that the technology path that you picked actually flattens out way before the performance that is required by your product.
it tells you that a single warm year, or even two, cannot distinguish between "very rapid acceleration driven by aerosols and high sensitivity" and "the trend and more modest acceleration plus a very strong El Niño."
So, what you need is that basically demand to be bounded, like a hard bound, not even like a soft sort of like diminishing sensitivity. You need for them to eventually say, "I've had enough. I don't want to spend any more money." And for that money to not enter as investment.
But you if you also become an expert in a specific industry, that's like a deadly combo. Um if you are like just pick any industry, let's say let's say farming, let's say you understand that farming industry really well and you're also a decent software engineer, you're probably like the top 10 people in the world for that combination that the whole industry will want to hire.
I think where Rust is really unique is in the combination of things. So on one hand, it it doesn't have a garbage collector and it it's usable in low-level context like the Linux kernel or firmware or whatever.
And so, maybe what you're seeing is that this group of people in Europe and the Middle East over the last 10,000 years has moved into a a period of relatively more stable food, where building up stores of fat are not as advantageous, and there's been selection against this combination of traits.
And so when you take these things in combination, I am absolutely certain that the world's GDP is going to accelerate in growth. I'm absolutely certain the percentage of that GDP that will be used for computation will be 100 times more than the past
I simultaneously feel like I'm talking to an extremely brilliant PhD student who's been like a systems programmer for their entire life and a 10-year-old.
It's interesting that the Shorter hobby businesses all draft off superstars in the legacy hobby, but make their vast majority of their money from people who will of course never come close to the level superstars - you'd still go to pickleball and talk Nadal vs Federer, you'd still go to Top Golf and make Tiger Woods jokes.
The counterarguments against it are I'll politely call them fishy. Um, uh and yet it doesn't happen and we sell the chips because there's there's so much money. There's so much money riding on it.
I- I can relate that if you very deeply identify that you are a programmer, that it's scary and that it's threatening because what you like and what you're really good at is now being done by a soulless or not entity. But I don't think you're just a programmer. That's a very limiting view of your craft. You are, you are still a builder.
Sometimes people think that complexity or life or whatever is fighting against the second law of thermodynamics, fighting against the increase of entropy. That is precisely the wrong way to think about it. We are surfers riding the wave of increasing entropy. We rely on increasing entropy to survive.
And the combination of all this factors led to the processes in which Ukraine’s decision to go independent spelled the end to the Soviet Union. And if today anybody wants to restore, not the Soviet Union, but some form of Russian control over the post-Soviet space, Ukraine is as important today as it was back in December of 1991.
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