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21 September
19 September
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Their words
RSI is poised to make modern LLMs vastly cheaper. Trends that have shown LLMs get exponentially cheaper at a given intelligence are likely to accelerate.
17 September
16 September
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Their words
Republicans' long-term strategy, since Reagan, is to spend a lot of money (mainly on things that won't benefit non-rich Americans), refuse to raise taxes, and therefore greatly increase the national debt.
15 September
14 September
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korrents.com
AI will raise capitalists' incomes and the capital share of income, increasing inequality.Their words
Income of capitalists is likely to increase because AI companies are owned by actual people and these people, like shareholders in general, are well-off. Thus the rise in the capital share also means rising incomes of the rich and higher inequality of income.
12 September
11 September
9 September
8 September
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Their words
Just knowing that there is an unpublished solution to a problem might trigger millions of dollars in LLM spending to get there first.
On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problemsimonwillison.net
7 September
6 September
5 September
3 September
2 September
31 August
28 August
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korrents.com
The United States is not at risk of a financial crisis caused by the size of its government debt.Their words
So my baseline assumption is that people will continue complaining about the trillions of dollars we have in debt but it won’t lead to a financial crisis.
My Most Contrarian Opinion Right Nowawealthofcommonsense.com
27 August
26 August
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korrents.com
Entrepreneurs benefit from setting ambitious goals, even though most people do not need grand ambitions at all.Their words
And I will say I've actually changed my mind on that a little bit. I spent quite a lot of time speaking the other book that there are a lot of people who don't actually need those ambitions. And I also-- That's also true. We don't want 8 billion Elons running around the world. Would be rather crazy, I think. But I've come to realize that for entrepreneurs, it's healthy to have suitable chunky goals.
25 August
24 August
23 August
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korrents.com
Without the ability to sell fuel abroad Russia is not a great power and not even a medium economic power.Their words
Russia without the ability to raise money by exporting fuel is not only not a great power, it is not a medium economic power.
14 August
12 August
9 August
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korrents.com
New technologies raise the ceiling for skilled practitioners instead of diminishing them.Their words
What actually happened each time a new technology was introduced is that the ceiling went higher.
7 August
From one piece Max Hodak: Average Is Not Good Enough 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And so if nobody knows how much an experiment costs, like every time you like grow up a new cell line or every time we make a new a new probe in in the fab, how much does that loop cost? Nobody knows. Therefore, experiments are free. Um, it doesn't cost dollars. It costs media. And media comes from the fridge.
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Their words
there are definitely some ideas that are worth funding with $50 million or zero dollars, but not $5 million. Um you won't run the experiment. It'll be really frustrating experience. You'll get an ambiguous outcome.
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Their words
Well, I mean, okay, even the whole basis of building Helix is contrarian. Like, I think that if you raise a series A and then you tell your investors that you're going to vibe code a purchasing system, I think that any reasonable board is going to like ask you what you're thinking.
6 August
3 August
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Their words
Rather, the way that AI companies engage with communities-forcing NDAs, dangling billion-dollar promises, pushing environmental externalities far away from AI's wealthy user base-resembles a classic story about dark money in politics.
31 July
From one piece Patrick Collison: Is AI Breaking the Lean Startup Playbook? 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I think you need to ask the uh, the sort of converse of that, uh, what if you succeed? And you know, you raise money and you've customers and you've employees and a whole thing. Like are you going to be are you going to enjoy that? Are you going to want to work on that for 10 years, for 17 years, for 30 years?
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Their words
Um, but actually the median business, uh, is doing better this year than a year ago. Um, and so and then if we kind of, um, stratify and look at the probability that any given business will reach some revenue threshold, a million dollars, five million dollars, 10 million dollars, whatever, um, those all seem to be getting better.
28 July
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Their words
if you're starting the same startup as everybody else, it's like you get a lot of hype and you can raise a lot of money, but it's it's sort of like those are much less frequently the big option, the big outcomes.
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Their words
There are many many unsolved problems in the world, many great ideas hiding in plain sight that were actually solvable that could have been multi-billion or multi-t trillion dollar businesses a while ago, but nobody's building them and not for any reason other than nobody went and did it.
26 July
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Their words
likely this will be one of the largest industries in the world and um, uh, it'll take longer than a couple two, three years. It'll take less than 10. And so this will this will be our next $100 billion business.
17 July
16 July
15 July
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Their words
Privately held businesses in the United States are collectively worth trillions of dollars, and demographically speaking, they have an aging set of owners who are seeking liquidity or diversification as they explore how to pass on what they've built.
From one piece Context engineering with Dex Horthy 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Well, harness engineering just is like how do I raise the floor so that every single turn of this thing, the results are as good as possible.
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Their words
yes it will catch things and it will raise your floor but I don't believe like the model writing the code is the same model reading the code and if you ask a model hey is this code good it's going to be like oh yeah it's great comprehensive it's got unit tests
9 July
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Their words
you can't you can't you can't launch something to three billion people and not test it first, but you can't test something at our scale and not expect people to cover it
7 July
1 July
30 June
29 June
23 June
18 June
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Their words
And usually I like the customer is hyper scale. They have the scale. If they like what you have, they're willing to pay millions of dollars next few years. And even giving some warrant is worth it because you have a big one customer, you can scale.
15 June
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Lovedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Sanodesk 72x30 Standing DeskTheir words
Another part of my recent office upgrade was the Sanodesk 72x30 Standing Desk. Overall, I love this desk so far. The bamboo top looks and feels great, and I have plenty of room on the desk to set it up how I want to. Being able to raise it to a standing position is also nice too when I get sick of sitting.
14 June
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Their words
it almost gives a new founder an advantage over a multi-time successful founder because we have too much rope to hang ourselves. It's too easy to raise money and recruit teams against a big vision before we've gotten to product market fit.
9 June
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Their words
Look, first of all, if a company's successful, someone will knock on your door and try and give you more money. So, like almost every round is preemptive for successful companies. And when you take that much money, $300 million, the only way to spend it is to take your burn rate up. And I always thought of burn rate as a measure of risk.
4 June
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Their words
then the quantity of everything that's not a ballerina, say, goes to infinity, but our the marginal utility in that stuff goes to zero faster than the quantity is rising.
3 June
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Their words
But the thing I was careful not to do was to change the lifestyle because I I watched people around me change the lifestyle so you can make a lot of money and still be broke.
1 June
29 May
27 May
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Their words
If you get your positioning right, the world just keeps handing you wins that you didn't even expect. So like we never predicted this exact scenario but like our fundamental understanding of the position was right. like if if there is a neutral party, all these companies with billions of dollars will kind of use a neutral party to advance their own like company's interests.
15 May
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korrents.com
The Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates rather than cut them to bring down inflation.Their words
I will be surprised if there are any votes for rate cuts, even from Warsh himself. The Fed may need to hike rates this year to tame inflation.
10 May
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Their words
The trust that they gained is the reason why they're a 70 billion dollar company today. But most leaders when asked to defend their principles can't do it because they've been taught ROI based thinking.
9 May
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korrents.com
Stronger enforcement against tax and benefit cheating would raise social trust in government.Their words
It would behoove politicians to take cheating more seriously, because better enforcement would improve social trust
8 May
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korrents.com
Starship will bring the price of low Earth orbit down to roughly a hundred dollars a kilogram.Their words
Starship promises a near future with launch costs to LEO of perhaps $100/kg.
6 May
27 April
20 April
19 April
15 April
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Their words
Nor nor did I I would say my mistake is I didn't deeply internalize that they they really had no other options that that that a VC would never put in 510 billion of investment into an AI lab with the with the hopes of it turning out to be anthropic. And so that was my miss.
7 April
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Their words
if a million dollars had been at stake, like would you have put the same effort in? And the answer is no. Um sort of invariably. Um like they've tried, but they haven't really tried.
31 March
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Likedrcmnd.app
A Billion Days of EarthTheir words
It's not pleasant, but it is skillful, and strange, and makes me interested in Piserchia's other books.
23 March
From one piece Jensen Huang: NVIDIA - The $4 Trillion Company & the AI Revolution | Lex Fridman Podcast #494 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
You know, the idea that somebody's willing to pay $1000 per million tokens is just around the corner. It's not if, it's only when.
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korrents.com
Asked when an AI could build a billion-dollar business on its own: AGI has already arrived.Their words
I think it's now. I think we've achieved AGI.
21 March
13 March
From one piece Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI compute 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Um in general the semiconductor supply chain has not right it's lived through the booms and bust and uh we can talk a bit more about it but basically no one you know some players as of very recently have like woken up but in general no one really sees demand for 200 gawatts a year of AI chips or you know trillions of dollars of spend a year in the semiconductor supply chain.
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Their words
oh 50 gigawatts of economic you know sort of capex in in the data center and what gets built on top of that in terms of tokens is even larger right it might be hundred billion dollars worth of AI value into the supply chain is held up by this $1.2 two billion dollars worth of tooling that simply just cannot expand its supply chain quickly.
21 February
13 February
From one piece Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential” 5 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
but at the same time, we're spending $10 billion to train the next model because there's an exponential scale up. And so the company loses money. Each model makes money, but the company loses money.
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Their words
And if my if my revenue is not a trillion dollars, if it's even 800 billion, there's no force on Earth. There's there's no hedge on Earth that could stop me from going bankrupt if I if I buy that much compute.
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Their words
I think the trillions of dollars a year market, maybe all of the national security implications and the safety implications that I wrote about in adolescence of technology can happen without it, but I I I also think we, and I imagine others, are working on it. And I think there's a good chance that that, you know, that we get there within the next year or two.
+ 2 more
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Their words
does that mean the robotics industry will also be generating trillions of dollars of revenue? My answer there is yes, but there will be the same extremely fast but not infinitely fast diffusion. So, will robotics be be revolutionized? Yeah, maybe tack on another year or two.
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Their words
but it's not an infinitely compelling product, and I don't think even AGI or powerful AI or country of geniuses in a data center will be an infinitely compelling product. It will be a compelling product enough maybe to get three or five or 10x a year growth even when you're in the hundreds of billions of dollars, which is extremely hard to do and has never been done in history before, but not infinitely fast.
12 February
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korrents.com
The real cost of the CHIPS Act is the technical talent it ties up, not its fifty-billion-dollar price tag.Their words
The CHIPS Act might still be a positive, but the cost is almost certainly many times the $50 billion price tag.
10 February
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korrents.com
Manufacturing and mining in space will never be lucrative enough to pay for human settlement of space.Their words, before
Furthermore, I believe it’s very unlikely that space-based manufacturing or mining could be lucrative enough to fund the venture.
Their words now
Today, exploding demand for power-intensive AI applications provides enough of an upside to justify producing components in space, providing the economic engine necessary to justify and fund the trillions of dollars necessary to build and sustain space factories.
9 February
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Their words
Removing subsidies would raise meat prices a little, but only by cents to tens of cents per kilogram.
Do subsidies make meat much cheaper?hannahritchie.substack.com
6 February
25 January
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Their words
So what usually h what often happens is you raise prices and signups don't change. When I say signups, I mean the like signups per month, you know, the rate at sign or signups go up. This happens all the time.
25 December 2025
15 December 2025
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Their words
the average athlete who's taking a few million dollars more to move his wife and kids from one family, one city that they loves him and that he loves to some strange place where everybody's going to be unhappy.
9 December 2025
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Likedrcmnd.app
COLOR WOW Raise the Root sprayTheir words
COLOR WOW Raise the Root spray. I found out about this on TikTok. I spray when damp and it DOES give my flat Asian hair volume. I don't know how it works, but it does.
25 November 2025
18 November 2025
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
The Art of Asking Your Boss for a RaiseTheir words
The Art of Asking is a delightful and quick read. Only 80 pages in fact.
26 October 2025
25 October 2025
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korrents.com
Businesses raise prices only when their accounts force them to, not when they can see the cost coming.Their words
Business only raise prices when accounting losses force them to do so.
17 October 2025
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Their words
And I kind of feel like the industry it's it's um it's over it's it's making too big of a jump and it's trying to pretend like this is amazing and it's not. It's slop and I think they're not coming to terms with it and maybe they're trying to fund raise or something like that.
27 September 2025
17 September 2025
8 September 2025
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korrents.com
Education can raise how much everyone knows, but it almost never changes who is ahead of whom.Their words
Decades of grading data; standardized test scores; cross-sectional, longitudinal, observational, and experimental studies; along with many other types of ancillary and convergent evidence, ultimately tell the same story: education can raise the absolute performance of most students modestly, but it almost never meaningfully reshuffles the relative distribution of ability and achievement
18 August 2025
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Their words
I mean I've heard from multiple investors that foundation models are the fastest deteriorating asset of all time. And so if step one of your business is to burn through tens of millions or hundreds of millions of dollars of capital before you find product market fit and that asset has value for like a a week, I'm not sure it's like a great business model.
15 August 2025
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Their words
well their cost of serving it is is like maybe a buck per million tokens or something like that and the cost of electricity is about 10% of that. So it's like 10 cents of electricity is generating $1,000 worth of economic value.
16 July 2025
From one piece The Jamie Dimon Interview: How JP Morgan Became an $800 Billion Bank 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
we can cut billions of dollars of marketing out tomorrow. We can stop opening branches and save a billion dollars next year. We could do a lot of things. Your margins will go up. Your growth will go down. Your long-term margins will probably get worse.
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Their words
So, you while we kind of saved the system a lot, we bailed a lot of people out, they made us pay 5 billion dollars on the more the bad mortgages that Bear Stearns had done. And that's what made me make the statement I wouldn't do it again.
25 June 2025
5 June 2025
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Their words
When the internet created blogs, you heard from so many more people. But with AI, I think that number won't be in the few hundreds of thousands. It'll be tens of millions of people, maybe even a billion people putting out things into the world in a deeper way.
28 May 2025
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korrents.com
The binding constraint on building anything in America is permitting and litigation, not money.Their words
Political costs and civic opposition will often make a technology unviable regardless of how the dollars and cents add up.
14 May 2025
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Their words
the tool is used when you are overwhelmed with too many options. You've said yes to too many things, and you need to raise the bar all the way up so that almost everything doesn't pass the bar. It's a tool for a certain situation so I rarely use it. I would not call it a approach to life that everyone should use all the time.
12 May 2025
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korrents.com
Direct air capture costing hundreds of dollars per tonne is too expensive to be part of the climate solution.Their words
Whatever the solution to climate change is going to be, it is certainly not going to involve anything that costs $1,000 per tonne of carbon removed, or even the $400 to $600 that they promise by 2030.
Why Tony Blair needs to reset his climate resetliebreich.com
29 April 2025
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korrents.com
Payroll taxes fall mostly on workers rather than employers because labor supply is inelastic.Their words
Employer-side payroll taxes superficially raise hiring costs, yet the low elasticity of labor means most of the burden really falls on workers.
10 April 2025
16 March 2025
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Their words
One of the most common megaproject failure modes is to not freak out soon enough, and having a concrete plan is the best antidote.
1 March 2025
12 February 2025
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Their words
The longevity of that consensus is itself remarkable: in 79 years of data, Republican presidents spent an average of $34 billion a year on aid, while Democrats spent $40 billion.
3 February 2025
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Their words
Code and data is hard, but ideas is easy. Silicon Valley operates on the way that top employees get bought out by other companies for a pay raise, and a large reason why these companies do this is to bring ideas with them.
From one piece DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast #459 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I think it's even more impressive what OpenAI did in 2022. At the time, no one believed in mixture of experts models at Google who had all the researchers. OpenAI had such little compute and they devoted all of their compute for many months, all of it, 100% for many months to GPT-4 with a brand-new architecture with no belief that, "Hey, let me spend a couple of hundred million dollars, which is all of the money I have on this model." That is truly YOLO.
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Their words
And so going back, can the US build it here? Yes, but it's going to take a ton of money. I truly think to revolutionize and completely in-source semiconductors would take a decade and a trillion dollars.
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Their words
But the funniest thing I think that comes out of this is Jevons paradox is true. AWS pricing for H100s has gone up over the last couple of weeks, since a little bit after Christmas, since V3 was launched, AWS H100 pricing has gone up.
20 January 2025
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korrents.com
A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens.Their words
Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens.
19 January 2025
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Their words
But to ever promise a homepage redesign or marketing site redesign in order to drive more acquisition is a failed promise that is going to be led by lots of agency money spending, uh often a million dollars plus
8 January 2025
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korrents.com
The United States is not at risk of a financial crisis caused by the size of its government debt.Their words
Stabilizing factors such as the global demand for U.S. dollars and debt denominated in its own currency suggest an era of fiscal dominance in the U.S. that's less dramatic than alarmists predict but more persistent and intractable than optimists hope.
22 December 2024
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Their words
And so, what we found was basically that there have been 10 billion trillion habitable zone planets in the universe. And what that means is that those are 10 billion trillion experiments that have been run. And the only way that we're this whole process from a biogenesis to a civilization has occurred is if every one of those experiments failed.
9 November 2024
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Their words
For loads below $1000/kW, intermittent operation with some modest solar array oversizing is the winning strategy. Above $1000/kW, we charge and discharge batteries daily to run them.
Solar and batteries for generic use casescaseyhandmer.wordpress.com
1 November 2024
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Their words
From the 1960s, US fertility fell primarily due to fewer births among couples. In that context, baby bonuses might raise fertility. But today, the major contributing factor is the decline of coupling.
2 October 2024
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korrents.com
NASA's Space Launch System has consumed more than a hundred billion dollars and delivered almost nothing.Their words
Four years on, the program has consumed another $20b with nothing to show for it.
26 September 2024
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Their words
This isn’t a money grab: it’s an expectation that any business making hundreds of millions of dollars off of an open source project ought to give back, and if they don’t, then they can’t use its trademarks.
14 June 2024
13 June 2024
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Their words
There’s this assumption that computation is at the base of reality, and I see it at the top of reality, not at the base, because I think computation was built by our biosphere. It’s something that happened after many billion years of evolution. It doesn’t happen in every physical object.
26 March 2024
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korrents.com
Even the most commercially successful books are written for a very small group of people rather than for everyone.Their words
Uh Harry Potter, the most successful uh book franchise in history, it made the author over a billion dollars. That book is for almost no one. Right? That book is for precocious 12-year-olds and people who like to remember what was like to be a precocious 12-year-old. That's not everyone. That's a very small group of people.
22 March 2024
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Their words
I’m coming back at you with a very dark answer and a very big number. And that number is 5 billion people.
2 February 2024
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Their words
With an extra $10 billion over 10 years I’m pretty sure we’d get to 5 or 6 of the 10 on the list, and millions of unnecessary deaths would be prevented.
10 technologies that won't exist in 5 yearsblog.jacobtrefethen.com
4 October 2023
From one piece The Cruel Fantasies of Well-Fed People 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
In 2023, a world of 8.1 billion people suffers far less hunger and famine than the world of 3.2 billion did in 1963, the year of my birth.
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korrents.com
A third of humanity already cannot afford a healthy diet, which is why food has to get cheaper rather than dearer.Their words
Using this definition, 3 billion people – over one-third of the global population – cannot afford a healthy diet.
5 August 2023
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korrents.com
You cannot make America build subways ten times cheaper while only ever talking to Americans.Their words
You can’t change the United States from a country that builds subways for $2 billion/km in New York and $1 billion/km elsewhere to a country that does so for $200 million/km if all you ever do is talk to other Americans.
6 June 2023
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Their words
It’s not exactly news that the American government’s support for biofuels increases food prices, intensifies global hunger and wastes taxpayer dollars.
A Climate Killer Disguised as a Climate Solutionmichaelgrunwald.substack.com
9 May 2023
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
PeteyTheir words
The app costs a few dollars up front and then has an optional subscription for unlimited requests, but I would recommend going directly to OpenAI’s developer dashboard, creating your own account, and copy/pasting your own API key into Petey.
31 December 2022
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Their words
In a world of automated intelligence, our goalposts for intelligence will shift. We’ll raise our quality bar for what we expect from humans.
1 February 2021
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Their words
This suggests that overfeeding had caused their body fat regulatory system to durably accept a higher “setpoint”.
29 January 2021
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Their words
Well, this $20 billion in retrospect was far too little.
20 January 2021
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Their words
We can change software much faster than anybody else can change their systems.
28 October 2020
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Pitching HacksTheir words
This is a really short book that just gets to the point. It's a great checklist to think about what you need to pull together if you're going to raise money from investors. It helps you avoid some common pitfalls and gives you a good start on what you need to do to nail your elevator, recruiting, and funding pitches.
28 May 2019
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Recommendsaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Billion Dollar Whale: The Man Who Fooled Wall Street, Hollywood, and the WorldTheir words
Bradley Hope and Tom Wright, Billion Dollar Whale: The Man Who Fooled Wall Street, Hollywood, and the World: Is financial fraud becoming its own sub-genre? This reporting into yet another fraud reminds me of The Spider Network or Bad Blood. What distinguishes this one is the size: it involved billions of dollars.
22 August 2018
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Their words
A $250/mo recurring donation to would be a drop in the bucket of most businesses, but a major boon to any open source project, with which the business will almost certainly see tangible value-add as a result.
13 June 2018
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Their words
Open source projects on GitHub represent billions of dollars in value creation, but none of that is captured on GitHub.
22 March 2018
Nothing matches.
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