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Brad DeLong Mastodon
The early money paid $75 billion for stakes in MuskWorld now marked at $1.57 trillion: 20x. But the cash flows to justify that do not exist. They are not on any horizon. So why? This is just plain weird. This is not NVIDIA, or TSMC, or Samsung, or ASML, or Apple, or any of the hyperscalers wth real cash flows: **Looking Askance Yet Again at MuskWorld: WEIRDNESS OF THE DAY** Musk torched one of his two profitable businesses and Starlink can’t carry anything like a $3 trillion valuation... 1/
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From one piece Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI compute 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So to scale compute further right there's some different bottlenecks this year next year uh but ultimately by 2829 the bottleneck falls to the lowest rung on the supply chain which is ASML right ASML makes the world's most complicated machine i.e. an EUV tool.
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Their words
You can you can take the margin like Nvidia takes the margin. memory players are taking the margin, but ASML has never risen the price more than they've increased the capability of the tool. Um, and so in a sense, they've always provided net benefit to their customer.
3 February
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Lovedrcmnd.app
The Universe BoxTheir words
This is what it means to read a short story collection from an absolute master at the absolute peak of his powers. He can slide you frictionlessly between Icelandic troll tragedies to lethal drone-leopard romantic agonies to battles of the gods and the cigar box that has the universe inside of it. All with the lyricism of Bradbury, the madcap wit of Sturgeon, the unrelenting weirdness of Dick, the heart of Tiptree and the precision of Chiang.
15 August 2025
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Their words
central takeaway is that is that the hyperscalers are not power cost sensitive they are power availability sensitive
11 August 2025
18 June 2025
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Their words
I think computing supply chains are much easier to monitor than nuclear ones - there is only one TSMC and one ASML, but there are nine and maybe soon ten nuclear powers
12 July 2024
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