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Nat Friedman x.com
Started work at Meta this week. My job is to make amazing AI products that billions of people love to use. It won't happen overnight, but a few days in, I'm feeling confident that great things are ahead.
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19 September
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Their words
In QE, the Treasury issued long-term bonds. The Fed bought up the long bonds, issued overnight debt, and passed the interest difference back to the Treasury. In the end, it is just as if the Treasury issued overnight debt in the first place.
18 September
15 September
12 September
11 September
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korrents.com
No one, including safety researchers themselves, is yet confident that superintelligence can be safely controlled.Their words
I believe the researchers who say we are nowhere close to being sure of it - and are quitting, in protest, jobs that would make them rich.
10 September
9 September
7 September
6 September
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korrents.com
How far AI systems are scaled must be constrained by how confident we are in their safety.Their words
Scaling AI systems has to be constrained by our confidence in safety.
5 September
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Their words
We are quite confident that drops should be attributed to the WR, not the quarterback.
4 September
1 September
31 August
26 August
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Their words
So we should also have the humility. As amazing as the LLMs are now, it could be that they eventually plateau. We haven't seen any evidence of it yet, and I think this is also why we're seeing this absolute gobsmacking levels of investment, because so far the scaling laws are true, and the more billions are poured in, the more intelligence comes out.
25 August
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Their words
Most of the world’s free time has now been monetized by tech companies. In fact, the monetization of leisure time is how Silicon Valley execs make their billions.
20 August
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korrents.com
Confident non-belief is rare in America: for every person sure God does not exist, about six are sure one does.Their words
Said another way, for every person who is pretty sure that God doesn’t exist, there are six who are fairly certain of the existence of a Higher Power. Non-believers are statistically rare.
14 August
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Their words
So, we know Phelps is the gold medals guy, but I like to say that transport is full of silver medals, right? A lot of people think about ride sharing as a gold medal. What about food delivery? What about parcel delivery?
11 August
30 July
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Their words
And the nice thing about that is that information is really clear to the model, unlike the training data the model was trained on where it's all kind of like trillions of tokens stirred together into a soup of of hundreds of billions or trillions of parameters, but it's all less clear than the actual context uh that the model sees directly for this particular problem or uses use case.
29 July
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Their words
we believe that everybody in the world, you know, all the billions of people in the world are going to have a super intelligence that is adapted and tailored to them, that is enables them to accomplish their goals, knows their context, and ultimately is an expander of their own agency.
27 July
22 July
21 July
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Their words
I told him what I believe: that in the age of AI, medicine will be bottlenecked more than ever by regulation and the grind of clinical trials, and that billions poured into faster pre-clinical research won’t touch that problem, unsexy as it is.
Intelligence is not the main bottleneckwritingruxandrabio.com
13 July
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Their words
And as a result of identifying that person in a lineup, that person then replaces what they actually saw. So our memory can be contaminated just like any form of evidence could be contaminated.
9 July
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That's hard by the way because we can detect that right now, but as these models get better, we might lose the ability to detect that.
29 June
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Their words
To shout “temporary” and pull the plug essentially overnight after immigrants have relied on the government’s representations that they should put their efforts and future into establishing a life in the United States wreaks unfair havoc on the lives of immigrants as well as the welfare of their communities.
SCOTUS Whitewashes Otherwise Racist Decisionblog.simplejustice.us
26 June
From one piece Really Big Test-Time Compute in AI Changes Benchmarks, Safety and Research with OpenAI's Noam Brown 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
it's not that humans have become smarter over it's not that they evolved to become smarter over, you know, the past 50,000 years. It's that humans are able to do a lot more today than they were back in caveman times because there have been billions of humans thinking for a long time and building off of each other's accumulated knowledge.
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Their words
and I don't think we're headed to that world largely because of the fact that the models rely so much on large scale test time compute in order to achieve um their greatest intelligence. If you if it requires so much test time on compute to unlock the full capabilities of the model, then that means you're bottlenecked by time
27 May
From one piece Building OpenCode with Dax Raad 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
It's like everyone is just saying mantras to themselves cuz the root thing that's going on here is we are experiencing a moment of great change. Everyone is very nervous about what that means for their own position in it. a defense mechanism is to confidently assert a future in which you're a winner. And that's almost what every single prediction that you see is happening.
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Their words
If you get your positioning right, the world just keeps handing you wins that you didn't even expect. So like we never predicted this exact scenario but like our fundamental understanding of the position was right. like if if there is a neutral party, all these companies with billions of dollars will kind of use a neutral party to advance their own like company's interests.
15 April
20 March
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Their words
And I've gotten to a certain point and I thought it was like fairly well tuned and then I let auto research go for like overnight and it came back with like tunings that I didn't see.
19 March
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Their words
I think Opus 4.5 was the first one that earned my trust. Like I'm very confident now that for classes of problems that I've seen it tackle before, it's not going to do anything stupid.
13 March
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Their words
oh 50 gigawatts of economic you know sort of capex in in the data center and what gets built on top of that in terms of tokens is even larger right it might be hundred billion dollars worth of AI value into the supply chain is held up by this $1.2 two billion dollars worth of tooling that simply just cannot expand its supply chain quickly.
22 February
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Their words
We need to accept that at best, we will just barely avoid some of the worst case scenarios (e.g., an AI-enabled biological weapon that kills billions, a rogue AI takeover, or stable global totalitarianism enabled by AI), given the current pace of AI capabilities relative to the pace of governance.
We're in Triage Mode for AI Policymilesbrundage.substack.com
20 February
13 February
From one piece Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential” 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I kind of get the impression that, you know, some of the other companies have not written down the spreadsheet, that they don't really understand the risks they're taking. They're just kind of doing stuff cuz it sounds cool.
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Their words
but it's not an infinitely compelling product, and I don't think even AGI or powerful AI or country of geniuses in a data center will be an infinitely compelling product. It will be a compelling product enough maybe to get three or five or 10x a year growth even when you're in the hundreds of billions of dollars, which is extremely hard to do and has never been done in history before, but not infinitely fast.
12 February
6 February
27 January
7 January
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Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the FactsTheir words
A product manager will be called upon to make scores of decisions every day. In none of these cases will you have all of the information you want, and you’ll rarely be 100% confident. Poker champion turned decision researcher Annie Duke will help you learn how to be comfortable with uncertainty.
29 November 2025
26 October 2025
20 October 2025
17 October 2025
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Their words
the reason that I think this is kind of tricky is quite subtle. And it's the fact that anytime you use an LLM to assign a reward, those LLMs are giant things with billions of parameters and they're gameable.
27 September 2025
3 August 2025
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Their words
I see this as the strongest argument against the better futures perspective, and the reason why I don’t feel confident that work on Flourishing is higher-priority than work on Surviving, rather than merely in the same ballpark.
31 July 2025
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Likedrcmnd.app
The Overnight KidnapperTheir words
Mind-candy mystery from a highly reliable author.
23 July 2025
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Their words
And maybe also make the system available to a few hundred of the world's top experts, the Terence Taos of each subject area and give them a month or two and see if they can find an obvious flaw in the system. And if they can't, then I think you can be pretty confident we have a fully general system.
16 July 2025
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Their words
we can cut billions of dollars of marketing out tomorrow. We can stop opening branches and save a billion dollars next year. We could do a lot of things. Your margins will go up. Your growth will go down. Your long-term margins will probably get worse.
6 July 2025
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Their words
Bitcoin is not going to catch on as a charity. In order for spending it to catch on persistently at scale (i.e. not just billions of dollar-equivalents in annual global medium-of-exchange volume, but trillions), it has to solve problems for spenders and/or recipients that other solutions are not doing.
5 June 2025
29 May 2025
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Their words
Our punchline is that R&D spending varies by 10X+ across diseases for no good reason. I've been poking at that punchline for the last six or so years, from different directions, and I am confident it's true.
A Quantitative Approach to Vaccine Fundingblog.jacobtrefethen.com
10 April 2025
23 March 2025
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Their words
basically everything I thought would work out well, people use it less than I thought they did. And everything where I was like, I don't know, but let's build the thing. People love that.
15 February 2025
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Their words
I’m quite confident that AI will eliminate many millions of people’s jobs in the next few years.
24 January 2025
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However, without having a good handle on elicitation, we cannot be confident that our control techniques are effective.
Should we control AI instead of aligning it?aligned.substack.com
1 October 2024
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korrents.com
Within a couple of decades there will not be many people who can write, because AI has removed the pressure to learn.Their words
I'm usually reluctant to make predictions about technology, but I feel fairly confident about this one: in a couple decades there won't be many people who can write.
14 June 2024
13 June 2024
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Their words
There’s this assumption that computation is at the base of reality, and I see it at the top of reality, not at the base, because I think computation was built by our biosphere. It’s something that happened after many billion years of evolution. It doesn’t happen in every physical object.
2 June 2024
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On changing their mind
And for a long time, I thought that's what had worked. That this was why Ruby on Rails took off, became one of the most popular full-stack web frameworks of all time, inspired countless clones, and created hundreds of billions in enterprise value for companies built on it. But I was wrong. It wasn't the crusade that did it.
22 March 2024
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Their words
First millions, then tens of millions, then hundreds of millions of people will die in the first 72 minutes of a nuclear war. And then, comes nuclear winter where the billions happen from starvation.
18 February 2024
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korrents.com
Billions of people are unwitting subjects in the largest social engineering experiment ever run.Their words
They are unwitting volunteers in the largest social engineering experiment in human history.
6 June 2023
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Their words
My view is that the idea that AI will decide to literally kill humanity is a profound category error. AI is not a living being that has been primed by billions of years of evolution to participate in the battle for the survival of the fittest, as animals are, and as we are. It is math – code – computers, built by people, owned by people, used by people, controlled by people.
1 June 2022
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Their words
I believe that, except in times of hyperinflation, the price level does not behave as an asset price but as the aggregate of billions of mostly backward-looking decisions, and that expectations of future primary balances have little effect on the price level today.
25 November 2020
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Their words
But nobody will ever get to the billions of representative miles necessary to say anything compelling about expected safety until after they actually deploy their fleet.
28 May 2019
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Recommendsaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Billion Dollar Whale: The Man Who Fooled Wall Street, Hollywood, and the WorldTheir words
Bradley Hope and Tom Wright, Billion Dollar Whale: The Man Who Fooled Wall Street, Hollywood, and the World: Is financial fraud becoming its own sub-genre? This reporting into yet another fraud reminds me of The Spider Network or Bad Blood. What distinguishes this one is the size: it involved billions of dollars.
30 August 2018
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Their words
The work of Philip Tetlock, PhD and others has shown that people who have one big idea to explain everything (“hedgehogs” or ideologues) are very bad at accurately modeling the world, predicting outcomes, and recommending effective actions.
9 August 2018
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
The Pragmatic Programmer: From Journeyman to MasterTheir words
This is about the craft of software development, and thinking about how to produce good code. As the name suggests, it's a very pragmatic and hands-on book. It really helped me on my journey as a software engineer, to be able to write quality code day in and day out, and be confident that it's going to work correctly.
13 June 2018
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Their words
Open source projects on GitHub represent billions of dollars in value creation, but none of that is captured on GitHub.
22 March 2018
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