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Meb Faber x.com
.@RobinWigg on the dark matter of finance: "Repo in the US is like a $12 trillion market that nobody really knows about and understands." "Even monetary economists I know who spend their life on this say that anybody spends too much time looking at short term overnight interest rates goes a little bit mad eventually." "You can't always see it. Most people ignore it, but it actually explains the motion of celestial bodies to a huge degree." Listen: https://t.co/Ui5tjyavjZ Watch:
interest rateseconomistsbodies
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19 September
From one piece Better Debt 2 beliefs · grumpy-economist.com
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Their words
In QE, the Treasury issued long-term bonds. The Fed bought up the long bonds, issued overnight debt, and passed the interest difference back to the Treasury. In the end, it is just as if the Treasury issued overnight debt in the first place.
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Their words
The tradeoff between cost of borrowing and how much interest rate risk taxpayers shoulder should be squarely on the shoulders of the politically-accountable Treasury not the independent Fed.
17 September
16 September
14 September
13 September
12 September
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korrents.com
Higher real interest rates reflect a more optimistic collective view of future economic abundance.Their words
Higher real rates mean that the average view of the future is more abundant, and that it's worth sacrificing more to get to that future sooner.
11 September
10 September
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korrents.com
The simplest explanation for rising long-term interest rates is a surge in demand for funds from the AI boom.Their words
The simplest story consistent with the facts is that we’re seeing a surge in demand for funds as a result of the AI boom.
8 September
7 September
6 September
4 September
3 September
1 September
29 August
28 August
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Their words
But I think there have been enough studies now isolating those variables that show that AI is directly responsible for a lot of this job loss.
27 August
26 August
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Their words
This is complete nonsense, a shame that The Economist has been taken in by it.
21 August
From one piece How Countries Go Broke: The Dynamic Behind What is Happening Now 2 beliefs · raydalio.substack.com
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Their words
The debt dynamics work the same for a central government as they do for a person or a company, except that a central government has a central bank that can print money (which devalues it) and it can take money away from people via taxes.
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Their words
Early in the final stage of the Big Debt Cycle, the market action reflects this dynamic via interest rates rising led by long-term rates, the currency declining especially relative to gold, and the central government’s treasury department shortening the maturities of its debt offerings because of a shortage of the demand for long-term debt.
20 August
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Their words
the other extreme is if we're serious about exploring the universe and going to the stars, we are going to have to adapt ourselves to that environment. We're not going to export Earth with us everywhere we go.
19 August
3 August
29 July
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Their words
So, it's hard to tell how much of like the loss of the past few years was AI versus the end of like zero interest rate policy and like the post-COVID crash. And I think it's more the latter, but like again, LLMs are still getting better.
12 July
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Their words
Just like Hollywood once compared Netflix to the Albanian Army, the US establishment doesn’t yet understand how much better Satoshi Nakamoto or Vitalik Buterin is than every apparatchik they have in the Federal Reserve system.
10 July
24 June
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Their words
Thoughts, feelings, decisions, even bodies don't exist, they're only abstractions that we use to manage the chaos.
5 June
4 June
From one piece The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
things have to go really wrong for us to like just get over the threshold of uh you know, capital being productive enough to automate lots of work, but not be productive enough that that the interest rate is high and or the price of capital produced goods is falling a lot, okay? So, even without redistribution, a little bit of savings will save a lot of people.
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Their words
It might be that every robot now can turn into, you know, 100 robots next year, right? So, in units of robots the interest rate is 10,000%.
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Their words
rather than thinking about individual forecasts like what me and Phil are going to do, rather looking at kind of like basically generating prediction markets, where you get aggregate forecasts, where you get like kind of wisdom of the crowd effects. And kind of the reason that I think this is because we have been famously terrible at forecasting.
15 May
From one piece Fed Board Members: Stay In Your Seats 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Waging political war on a central bank does not serve a president's own political interests.Their words
A war on the Fed has not served Trump's political interests and generally does not serve any president's interests.
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korrents.com
Federal Reserve Board members have historically often resigned before completing their full terms.Their words
Federal Reserve Board members have often resigned their positions well before their 14-year terms expired, since that's quite a long time to spend in one position in government.
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korrents.com
The Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates rather than cut them to bring down inflation.Their words
I will be surprised if there are any votes for rate cuts, even from Warsh himself. The Fed may need to hike rates this year to tame inflation.
9 March
29 January
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Their words
And so that's the last thing which was very surprising to me which is that like we already reversibly cry preserve tissue including human tissue including whole body human tissue at that very very small like you know in a couple hundred cells stage
9 December 2025
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Their words
economists have this fantasy of the world of companies in direct competition driving down price and increasing efficiency while supplying the same thing which is based on a false premise that people know what they want to begin with. Now I would argue when you don't create differentiation, everybody suffers.
13 October 2025
16 July 2025
From one piece The Jamie Dimon Interview: How JP Morgan Became an $800 Billion Bank 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And the interest rate exposure was hidden by accounting. It was called held to maturity, where you don't have to mark even treasuries to market.
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korrents.com
A bank should be managed against the fat tails it can imagine, not against the stress test its regulator hands it.Their words
And so, I always look what I call the fat tails and manage that we can handle all the all the fat tails. And not the stress test the Fed gives us, but all the fat tails.
6 July 2025
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Their words
If a new monetary network with its own unit (i.e. not pegged to an existing currency as a credit rail on top of it, but rather a fully parallel system to central banks) is going to bootstrap from zero to massive, it requires upward volatility.
30 April 2025
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Their words
What you need is interoperability. Interoperability can happen through a blockchain, it can happen through a database, it can happen through standards bodies with defining standards and protocols. And we've been doing it for hundreds of years since the railroads were standardized. And it's not something that totally requires a novel technological solution.
14 April 2025
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Their words
But the spike in interest rates require to do this would be huge. And the trade shock will cause a sharp recession, or worse, putting even more stress on the budget. A debt crisis is likely along the way as the US finds it impossible to roll over debt.
31 March 2025
19 February 2025
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Their words
Despite misleading statements by mainstream education economists, college attendance in particular is not a good career investment for most of the population.
19 January 2025
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Their words
Friedman and Schwartz becomes the playbook for the Federal Reserve. We have lived through this, the financial crisis. The Federal Reserve is ready to loan. Covid, the Federal Reserve does all kinds of new things, because no Federal Reserve chair wants to be in Friedman-Schwartz 2.0 that somebody writes, where they're the bad guy who let the economy meltdown.
8 January 2025
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Their words
Since inflation is not primarily driven by private-sector lending in the current environment, making borrowing more expensive will not significantly cool the economy.
30 September 2024
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Their words
I mean, if that’s right, that means the Maya and the people of Mesoamerica will all share it together, when they thought about, “We need a count of time for us,” they didn’t look up into the heavens, they looked into their bodies. “What’s the first cycle that we actually go through as humans?” and they picked this nine-month thing. It really is our cycle, and no other culture on the planet looked inside themselves to create their calendar like that.
6 November 2023
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Their words, before
If the future is like the past, this implies that debt rollovers—that is, the issuance of debt without a subsequent increase in taxes—may well be feasible. Put bluntly, public debt may have no fiscal cost.
Their words now
Across advanced economies, the celebrated ( r - g ), i.e., the difference between the interest rate and the growth rate, appears to have durably changed sign or, at a minimum, to have gone from a substantially negative number to a number closer to zero.
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Their words
It is fair to say that, while economists expected the short end of the yield curve to reflect the higher rates needed to win the fight against inflation, the sharply steeper long end of the yield curve in the last few months has come as a surprise. I shall freely admit that I did not predict it.
16 October 2023
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Their words
We believe technology is a lever on the world – the way to make more with less. Economists measure technological progress as productivity growth: How much more we can produce each year with fewer inputs, fewer raw materials. Productivity growth, powered by technology, is the main driver of economic growth, wage growth, and the creation of new industries and new jobs, as people and capital are continuously freed to do more important, valuable things than in the past.
1 October 2023
From one piece GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of all Time and Why Does it Matter? 5 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Hayek's three best economics articles surpass the three best articles from any other economist.Their words
Hayek’s three best articles are better than any three articles from any other economist.
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Their words
It is a sign that Hayek was not so great at seeing the viewpoints of other people, and that (political moralizing aside) also should count as a weakness of him as an economist and social scientist.
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Their words
Of all the contenders for GOAT, Smith seems to be clearly the worst economist, with the possible exception of Malthus.
+ 2 more
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korrents.com
Interest rates have little effect on investment, and central banks have limited control over real interest rates.Their words
In the actual data, interest rates don’t seem to drive investment that much, and furthermore central bank influence over the real rate of interest typically is limited.
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korrents.com
Milton Friedman was the best economist among the plausible candidates for greatest economist of all time.Their words
Friedman has one big factor in his favor, namely that he is clearly the best economist on the list of contending names.
4 September 2023
14 January 2023
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Their words, before
The Fed needs PCE inflation to average 1.96% for the remainder of the decade in order to hit their AIT target.
Their words now
I assumed they intended inflation to average roughly 2% during the 2020s.
10 December 2022
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Streets of Gold: America's Untold Story of Immigrant SuccessTheir words
Absolutely. It is incredibly enjoyable and readable. The authors, in a way that is very rare for economists, find small stories that paint big pictures for the points they make.
12 September 2022
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Likedrcmnd.app
Wild ProblemsTheir words
How to improve your HUGE major life decisions, like whether/who to marry, whether to have kids, where to live, career paths, and such — where you can’t use the usual checklist/data approach. This economist addresses self-identity, “deepest self”, and “something I was meant to do”. You can’t use a pro/con checklist with an item that says “lose respect for myself”.
22 June 2022
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Dislikedrcmnd.app
End the FedTheir words
It's a book by a politician, about what you expect. Some interesting tid bits on the history of the Fed but you could get it from Wikipedia.
1 June 2022
From one piece Fiscal Policy under Low Interest Rates 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The proposition is that the cancellation of the bonds held by the central bank would decrease the amount of interest payments and thus the debt service of governments. And indeed, it would. But it would have another effect—namely, to decrease the revenues of the central bank and thus the profits that the central bank turns in to the government. This second effect would be exactly of the same size as the first, and the net effect on the government budget constraint would be equal to zero.
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Their words
A longer maturity of debt protects the government from a temporary increase in the short run interest rate, and it gives it more time to adjust to a permanent increase.
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Their words
If a fiscal expansion takes place when output is already at potential, monetary policy is likely to tighten, leading to higher interest rates and thus a smaller effect or even no effect of the fiscal expansion on output.
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korrents.com
There is no tight relation between growth rates and interest rates, either theoretically or empirically.Their words
while the growth rate may well affect saving and investment, there is no tight relation between growth rates and interest rates, either on theoretical or empirical grounds.
28 May 2019
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Recommendsaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Rockonomics: A Backstage Tour of What the Music Industry Can Teach Us about Economics and LifeTheir words
Alan B. Krueger, Rockonomics: A Backstage Tour of What the Music Industry Can Teach Us about Economics and Life: From the economist who revealed the secrets of the minimum wage comes this look at the economics of the music industry. Its disruptions by technology to economics of songwriting and concert tours, the music industry offers important financial lessons. Kreuger, an economic rock star himself (he was former chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers) left us far too soon.
18 May 2018
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Phenomenology of SpiritTheir words
In order to understand Marx, you really do need to know something about Hegel. It's a mistake to think you could read Marx as a scientist or an economist without understanding the Hegelian framework of his thought. That's why I chose to begin with Hegel.
1 January 2016
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Readrcmnd.app
NarconomicsTheir words
If you’ve enjoyed Narcos, you’ll like this book. The world of drugs, cartels, gangs, violence, and prisons looked at from the perspective of an economist.
21 November 2012
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
The Economy of EsteemTheir words
This is a book by a philosopher and an economist about a topic that was neglected for a very long time in social analysis. So there's lots about it in the 18th century – Adam Smith and people like that – and it's about how esteem, which is their word for the respect that you give to people who have achieved things against a certain standard, can be used to motivate people to do good things.
11 May 2012
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Why Nations FailTheir words
Why Nations Fail is by two of my favourite economists, two very close friends and co-authors of mine, Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson. They're tackling a subject that I've worked on with them, and they do a great job of bringing it to life and making it vivid.
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Lovedrcmnd.app
A History of Interest RatesTheir words
This is one of my favourite type of books, which are just about data.
7 May 2012
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Mixed onrcmnd.app
Nikon AF-S 85/1.4 GTheir words
Can I recommend the lens? For D800 users, honestly, no. You're better served by the 85/1.8G; use the balance of funds for other glass, or buy one of my prints with some of the money you've saved (shameless plug). It simply lacks the crispness I've seen with other bodies.
1 March 2011
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Lovedrcmnd.app
What Investors Really WantTheir words
Meir Statman, one of my favorite behavioral economists, has written a great book on how investors can overcome their base urges and make better decisions:
6 September 2010
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quantitative easinginterest rates
Their words, before
Any effective monetary stimulus would be expected to raise long term rates.
Their words now
I predicted that aggressive QE would raise long term interest rates, a view which seemed to be refuted by the response on T-bond yields to the March 2009 Fed QE announcement.
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