Shane Parrish
Founder of Farnam Street (fs.blog) and host of The Knowledge Project podcast. Writes and curates on decision-making, mental models and rational thinking.
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What they believe
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Hanlon's razor is a safeguard against labelling behaviour as malicious when incompetence is the more common cause.
Hanlon’s razor is a mental safeguard against the temptation to label behavior as malicious when incompetence is the most common response.
fs.blogSaid 16 Nov 2024This on korrents
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A thought experiment serves to encourage speculation and logical thinking and to change paradigms.
The purpose of a thought experiment is to encourage speculation, logical thinking and to change paradigms.
fs.blogSaid 1 Feb 2022This on korrents
The bold line is korrents’ wording; the quote is theirs. These 2: what they wrote before what they said aloud, one per source, newest first.
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Beliefs
Korrents What they believe 48 beliefs — each backed by an exact quote.
Each is a — compiled by korrents.com, not by them: the one-line wordings are korrents', the quotes are theirs.
Recent
Hanlon's razor is a safeguard against labelling behaviour as malicious when incompetence is the more common cause.
Hanlon’s razor is a mental safeguard against the temptation to label behavior as malicious when incompetence is the most common response.
Hanlon’s Razor: Not Everyone is Out to Get You Said 16 Nov 2024
Genuine malice exists, but in most interactions stupidity is a far more common explanation than malevolence.
This isn’t to say that genuine malice doesn’t exist. Of course, it does. But in most interactions, stupidity is a far more common explanation than malevolence.
Hanlon’s Razor: Not Everyone is Out to Get You Said 16 Nov 2024
Assuming stupidity rather than malice changes the response: empathy and clarity instead of defensiveness.
When we assume stupidity rather than malice, we respond differently. Instead of getting defensive or lashing out, we approach the situation with empathy and clarity.
Hanlon’s Razor: Not Everyone is Out to Get You Said 16 Nov 2024
Show 45 more
The more someone is disliked, the more likely their actions are to be attributed to malice.
The more we dislike someone or something, the more likely we are to attribute their actions to malice.
Hanlon’s Razor: Not Everyone is Out to Get You Said 16 Nov 2024
Inability or neglect is far more likely than malice to be the cause of a problem someone causes.
Inability or neglect is far more likely to be the cause than malice.
Hanlon’s Razor: Not Everyone is Out to Get You Said 16 Nov 2024
The default should be to assume no malice and forgive, but where malice is confirmed, to be ruthless.
The default is to assume no malice and forgive everything. But if malice is confirmed, be ruthless.
Hanlon’s Razor: Not Everyone is Out to Get You Said 16 Nov 2024
The best aid to judgment is starting a decision from a good position, and people forget to ask whether they are acting from strength or weakness when the moment arrives.
the greatest Aid to judgment is starting from a good position this is such a key Insight we often think about making the best decision possible in the moment and forget about whether we're operating from a position of strength or weakness when the moment arises
STOP Playing Life on HARD MODE! | Shane Parrish Said 3 Oct 2023
Over the long run, the average person who keeps putting themselves in a good position beats the genius who is in a poor one, and what looks like talent is often good positioning.
it's hard to appreciate that over the long run the average person who constantly puts themselves in a good position beats the genius who finds themsel in a poor position what looks like Talent is often good positioning
STOP Playing Life on HARD MODE! | Shane Parrish Said 3 Oct 2023
The best in the world make consistently good decisions largely because circumstances rarely force a decision on them, as they almost always operate from a position of strength.
one reason the best in the world make consistently good decisions is they rarely find themselves forced into a decision by circumstances they almost always operate from a position of strength
STOP Playing Life on HARD MODE! | Shane Parrish Said 3 Oct 2023
Willpower eventually loses, so safeguards are needed to change behaviour.
eventually everyone loses the battle with willpower sometimes it's really hard to do the things we want to do so we can use safeguards to to change our Behavior
STOP Playing Life on HARD MODE! | Shane Parrish Said 3 Oct 2023
Rules decided in advance by a person's best self, such as "I don't eat dessert", can take the place of willpower when the situation arrives.
your best self can create automatic rules for these situations before you face them your rule can be I don't eat dessert
STOP Playing Life on HARD MODE! | Shane Parrish Said 3 Oct 2023
Working out every day changes the internal question from whether to do it to how to fit it in, which removes the negotiation with oneself.
the way around this negotiation with yourself is to work out every day the conversation in your head goes from should I work out today to when and how do I fit this in
STOP Playing Life on HARD MODE! | Shane Parrish Said 3 Oct 2023
Joining groups whose default behaviours are the desired ones, and choosing such an environment, nudges toward better choices more than willpower alone.
like joining groups whose default behaviors are your desired behaviors if you want to read more join a book club if you want to run more join a running club your chosen environment rather than your willpower alone will help nudge you towards the best choices
STOP Playing Life on HARD MODE! | Shane Parrish Said 3 Oct 2023
Doing what everyone else does gets the same results everyone else gets, because the social rewards of following the crowd arrive long before the benefits of diverging from it.
if you do what everyone else does you will get the same results everyone else gets the social rewards for going with the crowd are felt long before the benefits of going against it are gained
STOP Playing Life on HARD MODE! | Shane Parrish Said 3 Oct 2023
In undifferentiated work the only way to outperform is to work harder than everyone else.
the only way to outperform if you're doing undifferentiated work is to work harder than everyone else
STOP Playing Life on HARD MODE! | Shane Parrish Said 3 Oct 2023
The desire to feel right overpowers the desire to be right, because the ego pushes toward feeling right at the expense of being right.
our desire to feel right overpowers our desire to be right the ego urges us to feel right at the expense of being right
STOP Playing Life on HARD MODE! | Shane Parrish Said 3 Oct 2023
Trying to prove how right one is leads to ignoring the evidence to the contrary.
when you try to prove how right you are you ignore all the evidence to the contrary
STOP Playing Life on HARD MODE! | Shane Parrish Said 3 Oct 2023
Even when a problem is not one's fault it is one's responsibility, and there is always some action in the moment that improves tomorrow's position.
it might not be your fault but it's your responsibility there's always something you can do in the moment today to better your position tomorrow
STOP Playing Life on HARD MODE! | Shane Parrish Said 3 Oct 2023
A thought experiment serves to encourage speculation and logical thinking and to change paradigms.
The purpose of a thought experiment is to encourage speculation, logical thinking and to change paradigms.
Thought Experiment: How Einstein Solved Difficult Problems Said 1 Feb 2022
Thought experiments expose gaps in knowledge and help recognise the limits of what can be known.
Thought experiments push us outside our comfort zone by forcing us to confront questions we cannot answer with ease. They demonstrate gaps in our knowledge and help us recognize the limits of what can be known.
Thought Experiment: How Einstein Solved Difficult Problems Said 1 Feb 2022
Thought experiments are a structured form of natural human curiosity about the world.
Thought experiments are a structured manifestation of our natural curiosity about the world.
Thought Experiment: How Einstein Solved Difficult Problems Said 1 Feb 2022
Philosophers use imagined scenarios not to reach a "correct" answer but to spark new ideas.
With the aim of illustrating a particular concept (such as free will or mortality), philosophers explore imagined scenarios. The goal is not to uncover a ‘correct’ answer, but to spark new ideas.
Thought Experiment: How Einstein Solved Difficult Problems Said 1 Feb 2022
Although science usually needs empirical evidence, thought experiments may be used to develop a hypothesis or prepare for experimentation.
Although empirical evidence is usually necessary for science, thought experiments may be used to develop a hypothesis or to prepare for experimentation.
Thought Experiment: How Einstein Solved Difficult Problems Said 1 Feb 2022
Occam's razor holds that the simplest explanation is preferable to a more complex one, because simple theories are easier to verify and simple solutions easier to execute.
In simpler language, Occam’s razor states that the simplest explanation is preferable to one that is more complex. Simple theories are easier to verify. Simple solutions are easier to execute.
How to Use Occam’s Razor Without Getting Cut Said 28 Oct 2019
Occam's razor works best for making initial conclusions before the full scope of information can be obtained.
It works best as a mental model for making initial conclusions before the full scope of information can be obtained.
How to Use Occam’s Razor Without Getting Cut Said 28 Oct 2019
Like any mental model Occam's razor is not foolproof, and should be used with care.
It is important to note that, like any mental model, Occam’s razor is not foolproof. Use it with care, lest you cut yourself.
How to Use Occam’s Razor Without Getting Cut Said 28 Oct 2019
A conclusion cannot rest on its simplicity alone; it must be backed by empirical evidence.
A conclusion can’t rely just on its simplicity. It must be backed by empirical evidence.
How to Use Occam’s Razor Without Getting Cut Said 28 Oct 2019
Occam's razor is no substitute for critical thinking; it is a tool for making that thinking more efficient.
Occam’s razor is not intended to be a substitute for critical thinking. It is merely a tool to help make that thinking more efficient.
How to Use Occam’s Razor Without Getting Cut Said 28 Oct 2019
Probabilistic thinking, estimating the likelihood of outcomes, is one of the best tools for improving the accuracy of decisions.
Probabilistic thinking is essentially trying to estimate, using some tools of math and logic, the likelihood of any specific outcome coming to pass. It is one of the best tools we have to improve the accuracy of our decisions.
The Value of Probabilistic Thinking: Spies, Crime, and Lightning Strikes Said 14 May 2018
The future is not determined, and it can be navigated better by understanding the likelihood of events that could affect us.
The future is far from determined and we can better navigate it by understanding the likelihood of events that could impact us.
The Value of Probabilistic Thinking: Spies, Crime, and Lightning Strikes Said 14 May 2018
Bayesian thinking lets a person use all relevant prior information when making decisions.
Bayesian thinking allows us to use all relevant prior information in making decisions.
The Value of Probabilistic Thinking: Spies, Crime, and Lightning Strikes Said 14 May 2018
Far more probability estimates err on the over-optimistic side than the under-optimistic side.
Far more probability estimates are wrong on the “over-optimistic” side than the “under-optimistic” side.
The Value of Probabilistic Thinking: Spies, Crime, and Lightning Strikes Said 14 May 2018
Thinking in probabilities means roughly identifying what matters, getting a sense of the odds, checking assumptions, and then deciding.
Successfully thinking in shades of probability means roughly identifying what matters, coming up with a sense of the odds, doing a check on our assumptions, and then making a decision.
The Value of Probabilistic Thinking: Spies, Crime, and Lightning Strikes Said 14 May 2018
The beginning of any complex or challenging endeavor is always the hardest part.
The beginning of any complex or challenging endeavor is always the hardest part.
Activation Energy: Why Getting Started Is the Hardest Part Said 28 Jun 2017
Although activation energy is a scientific concept, it can serve as a practical mental model.
Although activation energy is a scientific concept, we can use it as a practical mental model.
Activation Energy: Why Getting Started Is the Hardest Part Said 28 Jun 2017
The bigger and more challenging an action is, the more activation energy it takes.
The bigger and more challenging an action is, the more activation energy we require to do it.
Activation Energy: Why Getting Started Is the Hardest Part Said 28 Jun 2017
Second-order thinking is more deliberate than first-order thinking: it considers interactions and time, and asks "And then what?"
Second-order thinking is more deliberate. It is thinking in terms of interactions and time, understanding that despite our intentions our interventions often cause harm. Second order thinkers ask themselves the question “And then what?”
Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform Said 12 Apr 2016
A choice with no immediate payoff is not necessarily a poor one: many extraordinary things come from what is first-order negative and second-order positive.
A lot of extraordinary things in life are the result of things that are first-order negative, second order positive. So just because things look like they have no immediate payoff, doesn’t mean that’s the case.
Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform Said 12 Apr 2016
Second-order thinking takes a lot of work, because it means thinking in terms of systems, interactions and time.
Second-order thinking takes a lot of work. It’s not easy to think in terms of systems, interactions, and time.
Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform Said 12 Apr 2016
The size of a person's circle of competence matters less than knowing when they are approaching its perimeter.
The size of that circle is not important. What is important is knowing when you are approaching the perimeter.
Mastering Success: Navigating Within Your Circle of Competence Said 1 Dec 2013
Inside the circle of competence a person has an advantage; on crossing its perimeter the advantage vanishes and transfers to other people.
Within your circle of competence, you operate with an advantage. As you approach the perimeter (the limitations of your knowledge), your advantage starts to reduce. As you cross the perimeter, not only does your advantage vanish, but it transfers to other people.
Mastering Success: Navigating Within Your Circle of Competence Said 1 Dec 2013
Outside the circle of competence, confidence does not diminish as fast as competence, and the biggest risk is what one does not see.
As we cross the perimeter from what we know to what we don’t, confidence does not diminish as fast as competence. The biggest risk when operating outside of your circle of competence is what you don’t see.
Mastering Success: Navigating Within Your Circle of Competence Said 1 Dec 2013
It can be argued that a narrow area of competence need not hurt, since rigid devotion to it allows focus.
It did not hurt Mrs. B to have such a narrow area of competence. In fact, one could argue the opposite. Her rigid devotion to that area allowed her to focus.
Mastering Success: Navigating Within Your Circle of Competence Said 1 Dec 2013
To improve the odds of success, a person should understand the perimeter of their circle of competence, operate well inside it, and be willing to say "I don't know".
To improve the odds of success in life and business, understand the perimeter of your circle of competence and operate well inside. Over time, work to expand that circle, but don’t fool yourself about where the perimeter is, and never be afraid to say, “I don’t know.”
Mastering Success: Navigating Within Your Circle of Competence Said 1 Dec 2013
A difficult problem is better thought through both forwards and backward than in one direction only.
It is not enough to think about difficult problems one way. You need to think about them forwards and backward.
Inversion and The Power of Avoiding Stupidity Said 28 Oct 2013
Working a problem by inversion often forces the thinker to uncover hidden beliefs about it.
Inversion often forces you to uncover hidden beliefs about the problem you are trying to solve.
Inversion and The Power of Avoiding Stupidity Said 28 Oct 2013
Thinking forward increases the odds of causing harm, whereas thinking backward (inversion) is less likely to cause harm.
Despite our best intentions, thinking forward increases the odds that you’ll cause harm (iatrogenics). Thinking backward, call it subtractive avoidance or inversion, is less likely to cause harm.
Inversion and The Power of Avoiding Stupidity Said 28 Oct 2013
More time is better spent avoiding obvious stupidity than trying to be brilliant, because avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.
Spend less time trying to be brilliant and more time trying to avoid obvious stupidity. The kicker? Avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.
Inversion and The Power of Avoiding Stupidity Said 28 Oct 2013
What is a korrent?
A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at korrents.com.
Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said. The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public statements, and a person can change their mind, which is recorded too.
Where they publish
x.com @ShaneParrish Short notes on decision-making and mental models, most days.
His own short-form writing -- the site's ideas condensed, and reactions to what he is reading.
Recent
- Your past explains you, but it doesn't excuse you. "I was last to be picked on every sports team. I was chubby, covered in rashes and acne growing up. I think I was counted out, an outcast. "I think your past explains you, but it does not excuse you, and so I do make an active effort every day not to let how I was brought up and everything in my past be an excuse for behavior, because I meet a lot of people who do." "How many people have you met who are just complete assholes and who are dicks and who are rude, and they don't value your time? And then they'll tell you, "Oh, w- what I've gone… 22 Oct 2026
- “The most valuable asset in any business is distribution.” @RyanSerhant argues: "You can have the greatest product of all time; if no one knows about it and no one buys it, you have an unknown product that does not sell, and that is a bankrupt business." Are you pushing or pulling? "When you buy advertising, you are pushing your message onto people, and that’s a push message, and you have to do that over and over and over and over and over before people pay attention. Social and the power of PR is pull, and so we were able to pull people into our stories day in and day out." 21 Oct 2026
- Ego kills more deals than anything. "People put themselves first all the time. People have much, much, much higher senses of self than the world does, and everyone wants to win." Serhant says he tries to over-communicate, treat people warmly, and keep ego out of the center of a negotiation. "When you are dealing with massive ego, you partner with them, you kudos them to death, you kill them with honey, right?" "If they win, by default, that means you won too. So you play for the other side to win at all times, and then you get to laugh all the way to the top of the charts and to the bank." "K… 20 Oct 2026
Show 17 more
- Why don't people follow up? "They give up, man." "Giving up is so easy. So easy to give up. Giving up is so easy. Quitting is so easy." "Trying is so much harder, but it's also free." 20 Oct 2026
- 7 years ago today, a self-published book inspired by Charlie Munger made the Wall Street Journal bestseller list. 19 Oct 2026
- "If you’re willing to embarrass yourself, you make more money every time by far." 19 Oct 2026
- This is a crazy story about following up. Ryan got ignored for 5 years, but he kept following up and eventually sold him over $100M in real estate. 19 Oct 2026
- One of our favorite annual traditions in October is to go to the grocery store and load up one shopping cart for the food bank. The kids pick everything and try to pile more on then the previous year. It always sparks the most interesting conversations on the way home. 18 Oct 2026
- "Ego kills more deals than anything." 18 Oct 2026
- Time is your greatest asset. "If you had a thousand dollars in your pocket and someone took out five and ran away, you wouldn’t then say, “Hey, hey, here’s the rest, right?” @RyanSerhant told me that's often what we do with our time. "You have a bad phone call for five minutes, someone pisses you off, and you give them the rest of that money. You're like, "You know what? Here you go. You should take it." 17 Oct 2026
- "Winning is getting what we want, which often includes assisting others in getting what they want." – Gerry Spence 16 Oct 2026
- Act like your future self. "Don't act like the person you used to be. Act like the person you're gonna become. And I promise you that mental mind shift alone will carry you forward." 16 Oct 2026
- .@RyanSerhant told me the wealthiest people talk like optimists and prepare like pessimists. "They’re always thinking about what could go wrong internally while planning publicly where everything’s going to go right." It’s a healthy fear. They’re “always preparing for what could go wrong so that in the moment that something goes wrong, they can be opportunistic.” They don’t just prepare to survive the worst. They prepare to profit from it. 16 Oct 2026
- There might be no better sales insight than this one. "People don't want to be sold, but they love shopping." 15 Oct 2026
- Ryan Serhant on how he'd build a brand from zero 15 Oct 2026
- Ryan Serhant explains the art of the sale. "People don't want to be sold, but they love shopping." "I see a lot of people who are terrible at sales are trying to sell me the bed and they try to sell me the bed that I can then go and have a dream in. And that is not how you do it. You sell the dream first, bed second." 15 Oct 2026
- According to David Ogilvy, this is the most successful ad he ever wrote. "if you ask which of my advertisements has been the most successful, I will answer without hesitation that it was the first ad I wrote for industrial development in Puerto Rico." "It won no awards for ‘creativity’ but it persuaded scores of manufacturers to start factories in that poverty-stricken island." 14 Oct 2026
- The power of walking away. "People want what they can't have. And when you surprise them, like in war, they don't know what to do and it makes them double down their focus on you." Ryan Serhant got ghosted on a date. Then used the exact same move to get cast on Million Dollar Listing. 14 Oct 2026
- Treat your time like money. I loved this concept of a “bank of time” from my conversation with @RyanSerhant 14 Oct 2026
- Ryan Serhant explains the art of following up. There are 3 F's. 1. Follow up 2. Follow through 3. Follow back "Follow up forever. Until people buy, die, or don't want to work with you." 14 Oct 2026
Link verified 8 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
Podcast The Knowledge Project He interviews people on decision-making. The guests do most of the talking; his own views surface in the questions.
Long-form interviews on how people think and make decisions. As the interviewer, this is mostly the guest's voice rather than his own -- for his own words, see his X account.
Recent
Link verified 8 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
Books Clear Thinking His book on decision-making, on top of years of Farnam Street essays.
Clear Thinking: Turning Ordinary Moments into Extraordinary Results, drawing on the ideas developed on Farnam Street.
Link verified 8 Sept 2026.
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