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Awais Aftab Newsletter
The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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19 September
18 September
15 September
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korrents.com
Publishing industry claims to predict how trends will play out, but such predictions are unreliable.Their words
Publishers want to have people believe they know exactly how and when things will shake out, but you just never know.
Processing: How Nicholas Russell Wrote Observercountercraft.substack.com
14 September
12 September
10 September
9 September
6 September
3 September
1 September
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korrents.com
Anthropomorphizing AI systems is necessary for reasoning about, explaining, and predicting their behavior accurately.Their words
Anthropomorphizing the AIs is the only way to reason about, explain to civilians about, or make good predictions about current AIs.
31 August
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Their words
I think it’s entirely plausible that screens have a real negative effect on teenagers, but studies can’t find them because (a) the effects need not be dose-dependent (maybe two hours on your phone isn’t worse than one hour), and (b) given that everyone else is on social media, giving it up can have a negative effect.
30 August
28 August
From one piece How AI agents "radicalized" a top Meta exec into quitting her job 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I actually think the opposite, which is that there are going to be many more software engineers than even the rosiest current predictions, and that software engineers will take over these other jobs: legal, marketing, accounting.
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Their words
But I think there have been enough studies now isolating those variables that show that AI is directly responsible for a lot of this job loss.
27 August
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Their words
What we do know is that the actual Elon Musk that we have to live with on this here timeline was flagrantly incompetent in government, contrary to Noah's previous predictions.
24 August
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Their words
Alzheimer's disease does not necessarily equal dementia. people can have Alzheimer's disease and not get dementia. So, we found this out from post-mortem studies. People have been followed as they age. Uh they've donated their brains and it turns out that perhaps 20 to 30% of these individuals who never had dementia have Alzheimer pathology.
17 August
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Their words
What you would want to do is have a detailed highdimensional readout of okay your your gallbladder and your liver and your kidney and your heart and changes all over your body and look at that and ask is there is there some kind of association between specific emotion states and changes some kind of complex change in your body and I would bet that there is but we just don't have those data yet
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Their words
But he's only lost money because he chose to study day trading and technical analysis Both are proven to be bullshit by endless amounts of studies
16 August
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Lovedrcmnd.app
Introduction to AlgorithmsTheir words
Spent endless hours digging through The Book. It’s very well written and organized and was a tremendous help in my CS studies.
15 August
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Their words
if you look at the nuclear industry outside of Valor, it's mostly a modeling and simulation uh industry. Like when you think of a nuclear company, right, there's like nuclear companies out there that everyone knows the name of. And you kind of look under the cover. It's actually a modeling and simulation company, right? They produce um very very precise what we call paper reactors which have really good predictions of how a theoretical thing might behave.
12 August
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Their words
You read that right: The cost of climate-worsened wildfire smoke alone is larger than what earlier studies said every other estimated cost of climate change would be, combined.
7 August
26 July
23 July
20 July
From one piece Accelerate Learning & Increase Cognitive Capacity | Dr. Tommy Wood 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So there there are studies that show that um uh giving people caffeine makes them [snorts] feel like they're performing better, but they're actually performing worse on certain cognitive tasks.
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korrents.com
Cooling someone after a head injury does not help; what matters is stopping them from getting hot.Their words
So there have been lots of studies where they've done cooling hypothermia in people after traumatic brain injuries and concussions hasn't really shown much of an effect. What seems to be important is preventing hyperothermia.
11 July
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Their words
Population-level studies will keep struggling to prove that short sleep shortens life, because they are structurally unable to separate cause from symptom—and the genetic tools meant to overcome this limitation inherit a different fatal flaw.
8 July
2 July
1 July
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Their words
An engaging book about the beauties of stonemasonry, with case studies of Venice, Angkor Wat, Lalibela, Zimbabwe and other locales.
17 June
9 June
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Lovedrcmnd.app
ObstetrixTheir words
All told, this is a read-in-one-sitting thriller that does as much to illuminate the workings and dynamics of patriarchy and religion as any gender studies class. It's peak Kritzer (so far), and that's saying something.
4 June
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Their words
And if you look at Ricardo's predictions, they're actually right. If you look at all those jobs that made money in Ricardo's time, they got automated. So, if I was David Ricardo and I woke up and somebody told me all those jobs did get automated. And you ask me David Ricardo, like what do you think the prime age employment rate is in 2026? I think he would be surprised if you told him it was the highest it's ever been other than 2000.
3 June
27 May
15 May
10 May
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korrents.com
The rule for a company's culture is to only ever make deposits and never deliberately make a withdrawal.Their words
this is the rule is really simple. only make deposits. Never make withdrawals. That's it. Because you're going to make withdrawals by accident sometimes because you're gonna make mistakes, but you never intentionally make a withdrawal.
8 May
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Their words
In fact, multiple analyses we do suggest that the genome is vibrating with natural selection, and uh there's all sorts of weaker effects that are there that would be picked up in larger studies even than we've done. Uh and that uh in fact, almost every position in the DNA is uh correlated to a position that in being dragged in one way or the other uh by natural selection. Instead of being quiescent, natural selection is everywhere.
24 April
13 April
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Their words
Most people hear that story and think: he must have lacked talent, or commitment. I don’t think that’s the right conclusion. I think he was never taught how second language acquisition actually works, and so he spent hundreds of hours doing the wrong things.
7 April
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Their words
I go to myself, "Well, yeah, but what do you mean by code?" Because that kind of implies nobody's writing anything. Well, we're at least doing some prompting. We're having some interaction with the genie. What's that going to be if it's not some form of code in some way? I think the nature of what code is is going to be quite possibly for a very radically different. But I think there is still a need to produce it and be able to interact with it in some way.
11 March
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Their words
Another way of putting it is that a collection of dozens of solvent well-run banks can still be broken as a group if they become greatly overleveraged compared to how many depositors want their money back at once.
23 January
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korrents.com
A personalized classifier needs several hundred labeled examples before its predictions become reliable.Their words
Predictions were poor until I got to over 250 samples in the training set.
Email triage with an embedding-based classifieradamwiggins.com
1 January
30 December 2025
16 December 2025
13 October 2025
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Their words
In rodent studies, semaglutide and tirzepatide were both found to increase the rate of thyroid tumors.
19 September 2025
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Their words
One thing that changed was that Eukodal was not available anymore, so the drug that Hitler actually had become physically addicted to was suddenly not available anymore. This had to do with the bombardment of the Merck company, the factory in December 1944. British bombers destroyed the production facilities.
9 September 2025
8 September 2025
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korrents.com
Education can raise how much everyone knows, but it almost never changes who is ahead of whom.Their words
Decades of grading data; standardized test scores; cross-sectional, longitudinal, observational, and experimental studies; along with many other types of ancillary and convergent evidence, ultimately tell the same story: education can raise the absolute performance of most students modestly, but it almost never meaningfully reshuffles the relative distribution of ability and achievement
2 September 2025
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korrents.com
Studies showing a language model behaving badly prove nothing, because the model was asked to produce that behaviour.Their words
you write murder is good on a piece of paper and you put it in a photocopier and you press go and you say my god the machine says murder's good. Well, no, you told the machine to say that. And that's what these anthropic studies are. They're basically you tell the machine to say a thing and then it says it like well you haven't proved anything.
30 June 2025
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Slow BoringTheir words
He takes a very proto-rationalist, practical approach to this, that I very much appreciate, complete with yearly predictions. The writing is consistently enjoyable and clear.
14 April 2025
30 December 2024
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Likedrcmnd.app
Principles of the SPIN Model CheckerTheir words
This book gave me both insight and a deeper curiosity about the subject. This book introduces the SPIN model checker and exposes the reader to the nuances of verifying programs using SPIN. A nice feature of the book is how it explains concepts using thoughtfully developed, freely available tools (such as jSpin) that the author created for pedagogical purposes. It's a demanding book, but the content was interesting. The book presents details about concurrency, temporal logic, non-determinism, advanced SPIN topics, and even case studies. I've already written a few blog posts about the topics I explored while reading this book, and I plan to write more. Overall, it's a good book. I'm sure I'll revisit the latter half again.
9 December 2024
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Their words
Until we develop better ways to bridge this gap - aligning what analysts understand with what is formally forecast - we'll continue to see the same pattern: reality consistently outperforming conservative predictions.
5 December 2024
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Their words
A number of studies, conducting full life-cycle analyses, have found that vertical farms currently have a higher carbon footprint than conventional outdoor farming.
1 October 2024
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korrents.com
Within a couple of decades there will not be many people who can write, because AI has removed the pressure to learn.Their words
I'm usually reluctant to make predictions about technology, but I feel fairly confident about this one: in a couple decades there won't be many people who can write.
11 August 2024
25 May 2024
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Their words
This fits with some of the studies of chess experts and so forth that it’s not so much that you learn the patterns passively. You learn what to look for. You learn what’s important and what’s not.
2 January 2024
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Their words
Many other predictions have already been broken, as life expectancy has continued to rise.
21 November 2023
9 November 2023
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Their words
Yeah. I mean, I would say that I’m pathologically optimistic on schedule. This is true.
18 July 2023
7 June 2023
11 April 2023
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korrents.com
Large replication projects answer the wrong question, because most individual studies do not matter either way.Their words
There’s no point in picking some studies that are convenient to replicate, doing ‘em over, and reporting “only 36% of them replicate!”
1 February 2023
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korrents.com
Fluvoxamine probably treats COVID, at about 60-40, and doctors should be prescribing it on those odds.Their words, before
At this point I'd give it 60-40 it works.
Their words now
More recent studies have found fluvoxamine does not treat COVID.
27 December 2022
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Their words
This, as was noted on Twitter, is a recipe for bad studies: it encourages the cherry-picking of results that went your way and the hiding of those that didn’t.
13 December 2022
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Their words
Scientists have run studies where they deliberately add errors to papers, send them out to reviewers, and simply count how many errors the reviewers catch. Reviewers are pretty awful at this.
11 October 2022
From one piece How growth mindset shrank 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Published effect sizes shrink as more studies are done, and that decline is what the replication crisis is made of.Their words
The decline effect is the idea that scientific findings get smaller over time. That is, initial findings tend to report effect sizes that then crumble away—sometimes to nothing—with subsequent research.
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Their words
Initial massive exaggeration of the importance of an effect gives way to more realistic, much smaller effects (which might still be useful) after people start doing better studies.
19 August 2022
30 June 2022
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Their words
They weren't infallible oracles, but they weren't blindly casting about either.
2 August 2021
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Likedrcmnd.app
How Buildings LearnTheir words
I’ve read this book three times since 1999, and gifted it many times to others. It’s changed the way I look at buildings. I read it again now because I’m building a new house. Its main idea is that all buildings are predictions, and all predictions are wrong, so design to make them easy to change. I think of it metaphorically in life: assuming my predictions about what I want will probably be w…
15 July 2021
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Their words
Despite these advances, contemporary physical and evolutionary-history-based approaches produce predictions that are far short of experimental accuracy in the majority of cases in which a close homologue has not been solved experimentally and this has limited their utility for many biological applications.
5 May 2021
1 March 2021
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Barking Up the Wrong TreeTheir words
A fun romp through a lot of counter-intuitive studies and data on success , happiness , relationships , etc.
28 October 2020
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Work Rules!: Insights from Inside GoogleTheir words
If you're curious how Google built it's culture and the processes thanks to their extremely data & engineering driven nature, this is a great book. What held it back was being ~100 pages too long and Bock didn't always understand where what they did only fit at a $100Bn+, mega-profitable company. Still, the insights on the studies on their 50,000+ employees is well worth the read since so few of us can get similar statistical significance to apply to our teams.
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
The Lean EntrepreneurTheir words
It goes much further and deeper into how to approach actually doing Lean in your business than Eric Ries's The Lean Startup book. It also has some awesome case studies showing how lean can apply to any industry. See my full review here.
24 August 2020
21 April 2020
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Lovedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Trader Joe's coconut milkTheir words
In my unscientific studies, I've found Trader Joe's coconut milk to be the richest/creamiest.
23 July 2019
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Their words
Solve the fundamental, underlying issues, not the symptoms. We recommend starting with field studies and observations of actual practice (an applied ethnography). Ask “why?” at each issue.
22 July 2019
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Their words
We challenge this approach. It encourages design by committee and infuses a superficial sense of collaboration that leads to compromises and weakens ideas. Our view, the product of years of studies of and participation in innovation projects, is that effective teams do not defer critical reflection; they create through criticism.
30 August 2016
1 January 2016
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Readrcmnd.app
Smarter Faster BetterTheir words
Podcast (Part 2). Stories and case studies about the invisible forces that shape how productive we are — both individually, and in organizations. A good read.
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Readrcmnd.app
Naked StatisticsTheir words
The book’s stated goal is to convey an intuitive (as in: very little math) understanding of statistics, and I think it succeeds at that. It shows both the awesome power of statistics (for research, science, predictions) and the dangers of its misuse.
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Readrcmnd.app
The InevitableTheir words
Podcast (Part 2). A story about how the world will change in the next few decades. The nature of technology available today makes certain trends almost inevitable. Even though the exact future is unknowable, we can still extrapolate from high-level trends to make some good predictions about the future.
12 December 2015
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Their words
These studies also hammer home the point that conventional testing isn't sufficient.
7 November 2014
From one piece Literature review on the benefits of static types 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The summary of the summary is that most studies find very small effects, if any.
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Their words
It's true that controlled studies only tell you something about a very limited set of circumstances, but the fix to that isn't to dismiss them, but to fund more studies.
27 June 2013
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korrents.com
Watching a panacea get crushed by later studies is science working, not a reason for despair.Their words
That is not depressing. That is science. We should welcome it.
1 January 2012
25 September 2011
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
Dicing with DeathTheir words
This book is somewhat similar to The Drunkard's Walk in that it covers the history of probability. But since Stephen's background is in medical statistics, he looks at clinical trials and other medical studies.
27 July 2010
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
The How of HappinessTheir words
The How of Happiness I would describe as the state of the art in evidence-based positive psychology. Sonja Lyubomirsky has done the best studies on how simple interventions, simple things you can do, on a daily or weekly basis, have measurable effects on your happiness. So if your goal is to actually raise your happiness level, then this is the best book to read – it has very concrete suggestions of what you can do.
1 January 2009
30 August 2005
From one piece Ioannidis, "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False" (PLoS Medicine) 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
The smaller the studies a field runs, the less likely its published findings are to be true.Their words
The smaller the studies conducted in a scientific field, the less likely the research findings are to be true.
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korrents.com
The smaller the effects a field studies, the less likely its published findings are to be true.Their words
The smaller the effect sizes in a scientific field, the less likely the research findings are to be true.
27 July 2005
Nothing matches.
What is a korrent?
A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at korrents.com.
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