“You AI people are so naive, I live in the REAL world, where [I have been consistently wrong in my predictions about AI and behind the ball on every trend related to AI, routinely making little prognostications that stochastic gradient descent joyfully stomps all over.]”
The alternative way that you can reduce risk is actually just reducing consequence, right? And we would argue that that's a much better way to reduce risk. Odds uh are stochastic, right? Even if you do an enormous amount of risk reduction on odds and you do all this engineering, something's still going to happen, right? like just something's going to come out of left field and you can't predict everything.
much cultural success is stochastic (the experimental evidence suggests that talent only moderately predicts success in culture markets), and that path dependence shapes chances of success
Gold by Rumi and Haleh Liza Gafori. Poetry, 112 pages. A vibrant selection of poems by the great Persian mystic with groundbreaking new translations by Haleh Liza Gafori, an American poet of Persian descent. Read 1–2 poems before bed each night and thank me later.
Well, there's nothing in them which will cause it to generalize. Well, the gradient descent will cause them to find a solution to the problems they've seen. And if there's only one way to solve them, you know, they they'll do it. But there are many ways to solve it. Some which generalize well, some which generalize poorly. There's nothing in them in the algorithms that will cause them to generalize well.
People who insist they're harmless aren't safe; they're naive. People who know exactly how dangerous they could become-and fear it-are the ones who deliberately yoke that force to good aims.
I sometimes also struggle explaining to people, articulating, why I believe meeting in person for world leaders is powerful. It just seems naive to say that, but there is something there in person
The short, and very much un-sweet, vision of a tariff-bound economy is that it is stochastic. We can observe it, measure it, analyze it, but we cannot really predict it.
We cannot sustain the most stringent environmental and social norms, invest less than our competitors, have a more naive trade policy than them and think that we will continue to generate jobs. This no longer holds together.
After that, he thought top-down was the way to go, but he actually didn’t make that much progress. I think it’s naive to think it was just one or the other. In fact, a lot of people who made real progress were rooted in actual measurements.
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