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17 September
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korrents.com
The blank slate fallacy is a false premise that is highly damaging to both humans and AI.Their words
It’s amazing how damaging a single false premise (the blank slate fallacy) can be for humans. Same holds true for AI.
16 September
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Their words
I run an advocacy group that works on reforming clinical trials and the FDA, and I think cheap superforecasting could revolutionize our field.
AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDAastralcodexten.com
15 September
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Their words
Nobody knows for sure. We're in uncharted waters here, and I think even the LLM skeptics would have to say that the technology has taken us far past what many originally thought possible.
14 September
13 September
8 September
6 September
5 September
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Their words
We can’t count on surrogate blood markers to guide the results of cardiovascular clinical outcome trials.
The Coronary Artery Inflammation Controversyerictopol.substack.com
4 September
3 September
2 September
27 August
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korrents.com
Stock market history is too short to settle much: it holds only three non-overlapping thirty-year periods.Their words
But if you think about this another way, there have only been three non-overlapping 30 year periods in modern stock market history.
25 August
17 August
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Their words
So, as soon as you switch into something, there's a cost carried over from the previous task, and you're much slower and more difficult for the couple of next trials on the new task. So, there's always a switching cost
15 August
12 August
7 August
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Their words
I think one of the things that makes science the company very special is that it has both of those cultures and is able to integrate them and we're able to simultaneously do some really cool research that I think is really at the edge of the Overton window while simultaneously running clinical trials in six countries now with an approved medical device in Europe and clinical trial results in the New England Journal of Medicine.
25 July
21 July
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Their words
I told him what I believe: that in the age of AI, medicine will be bottlenecked more than ever by regulation and the grind of clinical trials, and that billions poured into faster pre-clinical research won’t touch that problem, unsexy as it is.
Intelligence is not the main bottleneckwritingruxandrabio.com
20 July
From one piece Accelerate Learning & Increase Cognitive Capacity | Dr. Tommy Wood 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
However, there's an increasing body of literature that shows that by engaging older adults in novel cognitive activities, you see improvements in function. So that can be language learning. Uh that can be uh complex like coordinative movement or exercise. You see the same things with um like musical training like people learning a new musical instrument or learning um musical theory trying to identify different patterns in music. And you see in randomized control trials improvements particularly in executive function that seems to be most common across those different interventions.
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Their words
But the way that I think about it or I try and talk about it is that actually the stress response and this is as kind of Sier originally described it is stress drives adaptation.
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Their words
But there are now at least three randomized control trials that have shown that omega-3 status and B vitamin status interact and they're dependent on one another. So, if you give uh B vitamins to somebody who has elevated homocyine, you bring down their homocyine, but they have poor omega-3 levels, you don't see any benefit.
16 July
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Their words
The feature is disabled by Google in ChromeOS, Android and in production Google servers which certainly holds back some use of it.
15 July
7 July
6 July
4 July
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Their words
we now have multiple trials confirming that metformin interferes with your ability to reap the adaptive benefits of exercise, which is the most powerful broad-based longevity intervention available to us today
Metformin and cancer: active surveillance neededpeterattiamd.com
3 July
19 June
18 June
16 June
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Their words
These are the two factions for which these parties fought originally. 300 years ago, these days what these factions actually mean is those jerks murdered Uncle Tibalt and we will never forgive them.
15 June
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
HUANUO Dual Monitor StandTheir words
I prefer using monitor arms over the default stand that most monitors come with, and at the end of 2022 I switched to the HUANUO Dual Monitor Stand. It's a single mount with two monitor arms, and it holds the monitors in place nicely. Each arm is flexible in where I can position them.
4 June
From one piece The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Like right now we're endowed with labor that can turn into uh that can turn into income. When that is no longer the case and we are now at the mercy of the of the elected official for like basic needs, right? So that to me feels like a power sharing arrangement that's really dangerous.
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Their words
The only way this relational story works and this is what we need more more data on is if it's not a human is not a horse in the sense that it is providing value from the output where if you replace the human, the the value of the output decreases.
26 April
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Their words
when you're creating a thousand new ideas, who cares if most of them are not great ideas? That's totally fine, right? What we want to get rid of is that sense of, you know, preciousness that people have around ideas
22 April
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Their words
software as a service businesses, for example the whole reason why they can charge a subscription is because they are able to essentially hold a gun to the customer's head and say, "Pay us at your subscription, otherwise we will delete all your data."
15 March
8 March
28 February
From one piece A response to Dario Amodei on AI & clinical trials 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
But remember that such data can only come from trials in people (mice are nice, but most animal results simply do not translate.)
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Their words
Even if AI can help design more effective drugs, timelines will not compress until we solve the operational and regulatory bottlenecks of trials.
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Their words
The current success rate for a drug entering clinical trials is only about ten percent, meaning 90 percent of all drugs fail.
+ 1 more
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Their words
Trials serve two distinct functions: validation — confirming whether a drug works and is safe — and learning, or generating biological data to refine our understanding of a disease, a compound, and the relationship between the two.
1 January
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Their words
You want to you want to be able to walk into the rooms that you're in each day, and the good habit is the path of least resistance. It's the easiest thing to do. And a lot of the time you walk into rooms and it's the distractions that are easier to do and you feel like you're swimming upstream and trying to fight your environment to make a change happen.
29 December 2025
16 December 2025
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Likedrcmnd.app
The Secret of Our SuccessTheir words
Not every plank in his argument is convincing, and the research has evolved since the book first came out a decade ago, but the ambition is impressive and the framework holds up.
11 December 2025
9 December 2025
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Likedrcmnd.app
DedCool Milk detergentTheir words
DedCool Milk detergent. Yes, it's probably all over your Instagram ads. Yes, it is good! This scent is what originally kicked off my lactonic fixation.
12 November 2025
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Their words
that 50% happens because quite frankly the trust the world has in the United States whether it's its capital markets or whether it's its technology and and its stewardship of what matters at any given time in terms of leading uh sector. So if that is broken uh then that's not a good day for the United States.
5 October 2025
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Their words
I think if you have especially a B2B feature where you may have some lock in reverse trials can be super powerful. You just want to get people in there. You don't need to ask for their credit card because they're using your CRM or they're investing quite a lot of time in like building out, you know, material and content. And so by the time that window drops, you actually like feel, oh man, I probably should keep this and and start paying. I think for a lot of consumer products, it's a little bit harder for that to work. And so I've typically seen more just normal free trials be be the norm.
18 August 2025
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Their words
I don't think all parts of the economy can absorb intelligence equally. So let's just say we develop fairly generalized super intelligence. I always use the analogy like you can invent a lot of drugs, but if clinical trials still take a long time, you're not necessarily going to get new therapies rapidly.
15 August 2025
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Their words
And the impact of solar array on desert is arguably positive because it shades the ground and improves like soil moisture retention. Um there like if you wanted to reverse desertification, you would basically just deploy solar panels on it and that would pay for the process.
2 August 2025
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Their words
Those are why I do not believe that AI could end disease within 10 years on its own, nor that 50-100 years of medical progress could occur 5-10 years after powerful AI due to AI progress alone
AI will not suddenly lead to an Alzheimer's cureblog.jacobtrefethen.com
8 July 2025
6 July 2025
14 June 2025
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Their words
If something holds 99.99% of the time, that's good enough for most things. But mathematicians are one of the few people who really care about whether really 100% of all situations are covered by it.
7 June 2025
22 March 2025
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Their words
And for me, that is the worst part about programming, is when you already know the solution and it's just a matter of how fast you can type and get it out from your head to your hands.
20 January 2025
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Their words
America will be a manufacturing nation once again, and we have something that no other manufacturing nation will ever have — the largest amount of oil and gas of any country on earth — and we are going to use it.
20 December 2024
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korrents.com
China now starts about a quarter of the world's new clinical trials, more than Europe does.Their words
Chinese companies are now responsible for about a quarter of new trial starts — more than Europe.
16 October 2024
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Their words
And actually the constellation of Leo has a very Sphinx-like look. And I and my colleagues are pretty sure that the Sphinx was originally a lion entirely.
19 June 2024
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Their words
It’s less about access to a model’s weights, it’s more access to compute that is putting the world in more concentration of power and few individuals. Because not everyone’s going to be able to afford this much amount of compute to answer the hardest questions.
25 April 2024
22 March 2024
23 December 2023
From one piece The pharma industry from Paul Janssen to today: why drugs got harder to develop and what we can do about it 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
The cost to discover and develop a drug today is orders of magnitude higher than in the 1950s. Despite this, the probability that a drug entering clinical trials will eventually reach the market has hardly improved in the intervening years.
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Their words
Because patents have fixed term lengths, with small extensions to compensate for the year or so when the drug is under regulatory review, drug developers are incentivized to go after conditions where clinical trials can be completed quickly, all else being equal.
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Their words
The most significant factor preventing us from taking better molecules into clinical trials is not our ability to design arbitrary molecules, but our (lack of) understanding of underlying disease biology. In other words, we often know how to make something, but not what to make.
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korrents.com
Clinical trials cost what they do because they are complex, bureaucratic and reliant on highly skilled labour.Their words
Clinical trials are expensive because they are complex, bureaucratic, and reliant on highly skilled labour.
3 December 2023
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Their words
That was originally one of the hopes of Large Hadron Collider. I’d say at this point, it would be very unlikely given what they’ve already accomplished, but there are these underground detectors, xenon detectors that look for dark matter coming in, and they are going to try to achieve a much stronger bound than exists today.
1 December 2023
30 October 2023
1 September 2023
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Their words
Everybody talks about intelligence these days, but I like to think that nature has kind of wisdom that exists beyond intelligence or above intelligence, and it's that wisdom that we're trying to tap into through technology.
31 December 2022
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Their words
Easier said than done, but one of the best ways to prove you’re not a predictive language model is to demonstrate critical and sophisticated thinking.
8 July 2022
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Their words
The drone-like architecture of the multicopters is simple, but as the rotors are responsible for keeping the unit at a constant altitude with hover power, they represent an energy-intensive version of VTOLs. Their range is, therefore, short, typically less than 20 miles.
25 January 2022
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Their words
And so all of the people who have achieved positions of power and authority in the world based on prior generations of technology are inherently threatened by new technology because new technology will upend the power and status structures and then a new set of people will, you know, come to the foreground and and take the power.
11 January 2022
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Readrcmnd.app
In Praise of SlownessTheir words
This book, published in 2004, provides a journalistic account of the various offshoots of the "slow food" movement that originally began in Rome in the 1980s.
17 November 2021
29 May 2021
28 October 2020
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Positioning: The Battle for Your MindTheir words
This is a true marketing classic. Written originally in the '70s, this book has aged very well by explaining the most important part of your marketing plan: How you position your company and products. This book is filled with great examples that are easy to follow and understand. It all boils down to one thing: Be #1 at something.
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
Economics in One LessonTheir words
This economics thought experiment is a classic book originally written in 1946. Like most books that follow Nassim Taleb's "all books worth reading are at least 20 years old" rule, it has timeless lessons throughout. It tackles all kinds of ongoing political/economic concepts like rent control, minimum wage, tariffs, "saving industries", and more.
16 June 2020
1 May 2020
From one piece Why Are Clinical Trials So Complicated? 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Even under all the constraints and controls that I've been describing here, 90% of our drugs fail in the clinic: can you imagine the failure rate if we tried to go faster and noisier?
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Their words
The procedures that have grown up around drug development are a sort of Chesterton's Fence: we shouldn't pull them down without considering the reasons why they were put up.
30 January 2019
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korrents.com
A profit motive inside a game holds players there long past the point where they are still enjoying it.Their words
The profit motive is incredibly powerful and will keep players engaging in your experience well past the point of actual enjoyment.
17 January 2019
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Lovedrcmnd.app
ThinkPad X200Their words
I also travel with one of two ThinkPad X200's, which is my favorite laptop model - it still holds up after over 10 years.
12 June 2018
Nothing matches.
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