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Simon Johnson
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When Will the Iran War End? - Power and Consequences Episode 27 https://t.co/qiVPrg6mMH via @YouTube Not soon - expect oil prices to stay high and volatile
volatile iran consequences
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20 September
Economist; writes In My Tribe, and wrote The Three Languages of Politics.
18 September
Economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury. Author of Slouching Towards Utopia and writer of the Grasping Reality newsletter.
Osama bin Laden’s one concrete strategic goal was to end the American military presence in the Gulf and on the Arabian Peninsula. A generation later, Donald Trump’s war on Iran has apparently delivered it for him: **(SEMI-)CROSSPOST: RICK PERLSTEIN: Bush’s War Is Finally Over: Al Qaeda Has Won** & U.S. airstrikes are apparently now being launched off of carriers supplied from Diego Garcia 3000 miles away from Tehran, and from Muwaffaq Salti in Jordan 900 miles from Tehran… 1/ America Related
Forecaster, founder of FiveThirtyEight, author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. Writes Silver Bulletin, where the predictions come with numbers and the numbers are later checked against what happened.
Economist and Nobel laureate. Wrote a New York Times column for 25 years until December 2024 and now publishes several times a week on Substack.
Economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury. Author of Slouching Towards Utopia and writer of the Grasping Reality newsletter.
America
Their words
Osama bin Laden's one concrete strategic goal was to end the American military presence in the Gulf and on the Arabian Peninsula. A generation later, Donald Trump's war on Iran has apparently delivered it for him
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braddelong.substack.com
17 September
Political scientist writing Drezner's World on international relations, American politics and the marketplace of ideas; author of The Ideas Industry.
15 September
Founder and CEO of Social Capital, a venture firm; co-host of the All-In podcast and an early Facebook executive. Writes an annual letter and a weekly newsletter on markets and technology.
Writer and climate campaigner; wrote The End of Nature in 1989, founded 350.org and Third Act, and writes The Crucial Years.
14 September
Founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975 and led it until stepping back from control in 2022. Author of Principles, The Changing World Order and How Countries Go Broke; publishes economic analysis at economicprinciples.org.
By recognizing the higher-level consequences nature optimizes for, I've come to see that people who overweigh the first-order consequences of their decisions and ignore the effects of second- and subsequent-order consequences rarely reach their goals. This is because first-order consequences often have opposite desirabilities from second-order consequences, resulting in big mistakes in decision making. #principleoftheday Related
Venture capitalist and founder of Theory Ventures, previously a partner at Redpoint. Writes a near-daily blog on startups, SaaS metrics, data and AI.
Dario Amodei asked the industry to pace itself on a Saturday. But what does that word mean? Pacing is a policy question. Five camps priced the consequences & none named a speed. Related
President of the European Commission since 2019; previously Germany's defence minister.
I condemn the Houthi attack against Saudi Arabia. We stand in solidarity with our Gulf partners in the face of relentless attacks by Iran’s proxies. We will continue working with our partners for safe, free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and for stability in the Middle East. We all have a stake in this. Related
Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.
Criminal defence lawyer in New York; writes Simple Justice, mostly about how criminal law works in practice rather than in theory.
Pardons Remove Consequences, Not Reality At Volokh Conspiracy, Eugene picked up on a Connecticut decision addressing an issue that has grown increasingly prominent, as well as lucrative, under the current administration: Pardons. Three things are indisputable…
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Founder and former CEO of Zynga, the social-games company behind FarmVille, Zynga Poker and Words with Friends; says he founded ten companies in all, and wrote Life at the Speed of Play.
Wheres the hollywood celebs? @RoKhanna @SenSanders . This is actual state run torture and killing of innocent civilians. Why does nobody care about the atrocities occurring in Iran right now? Quoting @visegrad24 Iranian twin sisters Taraneh and Romina Rahimi were beaten until their faces were badly swollen and bruised, suffered broken elbows, knuckles and feet, and had much of their hair ripped out as they were dragged between prison cells. Taraneh has now been sentenced to death by hanging, while Romina w… Related
12 September
Professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins SAIS and co-author, with Abraham Newman, of Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy.
10 September
Economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury. Author of Slouching Towards Utopia and writer of the Grasping Reality newsletter.
Economic historian at Columbia; writes Chartbook on economics, geopolitics and history, and wrote Crashed and The Deluge.
9 September
Canadian software developer and writer, co-editor of the XML and Atom specifications and formerly of Sun Microsystems, Google and AWS. Has written the blog ongoing since 2003.
The human face of the Autistici/Inventati affair, “Canceling Emily”: https://www.tbray.org/ongoing/When/202x/2026/09/08/Emily-Got-Canceled “The wastrels in Washington can reach across the ocean and silence a Canadian creator on an Italian website. With no prior legal process, nor any way to resist, and without fear of consequences.” #art #USpol America Related
Mathematician and Senior Lecturer in the Mathematics department at Columbia University. Author of the book Not Even Wrong and of the long-running physics blog of the same name.
Political scientist writing Drezner's World on international relations, American politics and the marketplace of ideas; author of The Ideas Industry.
8 September
Economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury. Author of Slouching Towards Utopia and writer of the Grasping Reality newsletter.
7 September
Economist; Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at MIT Sloan, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, and co-author of 13 Bankers and Power and Progress.
6 September
Chief Scientist at OpenAI. Worked on the research that turned scaled reinforcement learning into reasoning models, and writes about where he thinks that path leads.
Their words
I am concerned no one is prepared for the consequences of a continued rapid rise in machine intelligence.
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An Alien Mind openai.com
4 September
Zurich-based value investor who ran the Aquamarine Fund from 1997 to 2025 and wrote The Education of a Value Investor. He hosts the VALUEx gathering in Klosters and publishes a podcast and newsletter.
The Iran that I know and love Quoting @DrNeilStone Beautiful song Beautiful culture Beautiful talented people of Iran Both murdered by the regime in January 2026 Related
Professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M; writes The Climate Brink with Zeke Hausfather.
3 September
Economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury. Author of Slouching Towards Utopia and writer of the Grasping Reality newsletter.
Paul Krugman’s Substack has become essential reading, and this piece exemplifies why: a clean takedown of the Trump-Bessent claim that Ukraine and “the conflict Iran” bear responsibility for high fuel prices today: **CROSSPOST: PAUL KRUGMAN: Imperialist Delusions & the Price of Fuel** Paul’s subheadline: “Trump & Bessent tried to betray Ukraine. Now they don’t have any cards”… https://braddelong.substack.com/p/crosspost-paul-krugman-imperialist > 2026-09-03 Related
Economist; Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at MIT Sloan, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, and co-author of 13 Bankers and Power and Progress.
1 September
Co-founder and CEO of OpenAI; previously president of Y Combinator.
Their words
AI is getting extremely capable; no one fully understands the consequences of this.
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@sama on X x.com
Investigative journalist on policing, forensics and criminal justice; wrote Rise of the Warrior Cop and writes The Watch.
31 August
Economist; Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at MIT Sloan, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, and co-author of 13 Bankers and Power and Progress.
New podcast episode: https://t.co/CA0rp35ZIf US-Iran War ends when China decides to help broker a deal (not soon) China Related
Political scientist writing Drezner's World on international relations, American politics and the marketplace of ideas; author of The Ideas Industry.
29 August
Creator of Ruby on Rails, CTO of 37signals, and creator of Omarchy.
Their words
But if you return fire with fire, the only thing that'll burn is our reputation. The troll who triggered you into flashing your teeth won't face any consequences, but every spectator who saw it will judge you.
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@dhh on X x.com
17 August
Political scientist writing Drezner's World on international relations, American politics and the marketplace of ideas; author of The Ideas Industry.
Bren Professor of Psychology, Neuroscience and Biology at Caltech, where he studies the neuroscience of emotion and social cognition.
Their words
if you have massive frontal lobe lesions that make it the case that you're no longer emotionally responding to stimuli the consequences are devastating which is that you cannot make decisions complex decisions in your life you can't organize your life you're not motivated to take the right path through life because you don't feel one one way or the other about the different options that are available.
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youtube.com
12 August
Economics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletter.
29 July
Swedish essayist who writes Escaping Flatland, a newsletter of essays on relationships, thinking, writing and homeschooling.
13 July
Writes Very Serious, a newsletter on politics, the economy and culture, and hosts the podcast of the same name.
1 July
Programmer; wrote Extreme Programming Explained and Test-Driven Development, signed the Agile Manifesto, and writes Tidy First?.
Their words
which is why when I see manifestos today I'm just like too soon. Not a bad idea. Would love to have one just too soon. It took 15 years for the technical change of object-oriented programming to come before we could say here are the consequences of it. Here's how in a simple way we can express how to effectively use this technology that we've been using day in and day out for 15 years. The genie comes along. People are like, "Well, what's the new manifesto? It's just not manifesto time yet.
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youtube.com
29 June
Professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins SAIS and co-author, with Abraham Newman, of Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy.
25 June
Economist; Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, and Chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017.
PCE inflation came in high. And the details were even more worrying than the headline as the risk of inflation mounting outside the tariff/Iran affected sectors. Core PCE annual rate: 1 month: 3.9% 3 months: 3.5% 6 months: 4.1% 12 months: 3.4% inflation Related
Writer and podcaster; co-author of Abundance with Ezra Klein, a staff writer at The Atlantic from 2008 to 2025, and host of the Plain English podcast.
22 June
Economist at George Mason University, co-author of Marginal Revolution, host of Conversations with Tyler. Writes in short, dense claims about economics, culture and AI, and has moved position on AI in public more than once.
9 June
General partner at Benchmark Capital for over two decades; was the lead analyst on Amazon's IPO before moving into venture capital. Writes Above the Crowd on tech and marketplace economics.
Their words
you got to be really conscious of the consequence and not get too deterministic about a single metric or a single variable and know what's important and what's on top.
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youtube.com
27 May
General partner at Andreessen Horowitz from 2013 to 2018 and CTO of Coinbase from 2018 to 2019; co-founder of Counsyl and Earn.com. Wrote The Network State (2022), free in full at thenetworkstate.com, and founded the Network School.
(1) Most countries do not actually have a military. Instead, most countries outsource their security to the US (most common), to Russia (like Belarus), or to China (like North Korea, partially). Iran is unusual in that they're going it largely alone. They're also unusual in that they actually appear to be winning. And if Iran does manage to drive the US out of not just Afghanistan and Iraq, but the entire Middle East, they'll have unfortunately undermined the idea that America can or will provide any security guarantees at all. (2) So, with the withdrawal of the American Empire, every country… whitehouse.gov
Quoting @Madeline_Zimm Roman Helmet Guy gets it. Reminds me of my book review of Balaji’s Network State, wherein I argue that yes, we still need the military 🤡 China Russia Related
Builds developer tools — SST, and now OpenCode at Anomaly. Posts constantly on x.com and writes almost never; the blog stopped in 2021.
26 May
CEO of Positive Sum and founder of Colossus. Hosts Invest Like the Best, interviewing investors and business leaders; the guests do most of the talking there.
27 April
Computer scientist and director of the MIT Digital Currency Initiative; her research covers distributed systems, databases and digital currency.
How is it possible for Iran to collect dollars? Quoting @IranIntl_En The Central Bank of Iran has opened four accounts in rials, yuan, US dollars, and euros to receive toll payments collected by the Revolutionary Guard's Navy, a senior lawmaker said on Monday. Parliament will move to make the toll system binding law at its first session by approving a bill titled “H… Related
14 April
Writes Very Serious, a newsletter on politics, the economy and culture, and hosts the podcast of the same name.
7 April
Founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975 and led it until stepping back from control in 2022. Author of Principles, The Changing World Order and How Countries Go Broke; publishes economic analysis at economicprinciples.org.
Scientist and writer on quantum computing, memory systems and metascience; co-wrote the standard quantum computation textbook and wrote Reinventing Discovery.
Their words
People will sometimes talk about um you know, a theory of everything as a potential goal for for physics. And and then there's this presumption somehow that physics is done once you get there. And of course, this is this is not true at all if you think about computer science.
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youtube.com
6 April
Writer and illustrator, author of Am I There Yet? and Out of the Blue; writes the newsletter Out of the Blue on grief, joy and everyday attention.
23 March
Economist; Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at MIT Sloan, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, and co-author of 13 Bankers and Power and Progress.
Direct link to today’s podcast episode: After Venezuela and Iran… Is Greenland Next? Both audio and recommended additional reading: powerandconsequences.com
Related
20 March
Software entrepreneur who bootstrapped and sold FeedbackPanda and now builds Podscan; writes The Bootstrapped Founder.
22 February
Founder of WP Engine and Smart Bear; writes A Smart Bear, long essays on strategy, pricing and how startups actually fail.
7 January
Executive coach for product leaders. Previously a partner at GV (Google Ventures) and a product manager at Google. Writes at Bring the Donuts, including a standing essential-reading list for product managers.
Their words
When does our animal brain make decisions for us before our more analytical brain has a chance to think through the consequences? From Nobel laureate Kahneman, this is one of the most important psychology books ever written.
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bringthedonuts.com
27 October 2025
Writes Nintil, long researched essays on metascience, biology, economics and whatever he has decided to read the literature on.
26 July 2025
Co-founder of Microsoft and of the Gates Foundation. Writes Gates Notes on global health, energy and climate, and on whatever they have been reading.
@NickKristof's journalism inspired me to get involved in global health decades ago, and I hope his reporting on the devastating consequences of aid cuts inspires others to act today. Quoting @NickKristof One reason we tolerate the evisceration of USAID is skepticism about aid's effectiveness. Yet aid can and does save lives. As @BillGates notes here, child deaths from diarrhea have fallen 72% since 2000. Diarrhea still kills too many children, but we know to solve these problems, inexpensively. We… Related
6 July 2025
Investment researcher and engineer who runs Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, writing on macroeconomics, currency systems and equity analysis.
25 June 2025
Co-founder of Microsoft and of the Gates Foundation. Writes Gates Notes on global health, energy and climate, and on whatever they have been reading.
In the last 25 years, @gavi has helped over a billion kids live better, healthier lives. Pulling the organization’s funding would have devastating consequences: more sick kids who fall behind in school, more overcrowded hospital wards, and eventually more grieving parents. I’m urging Congress to rethink this decision, fund Gavi, and help save millions more lives. Quoting @MSuzman Today, world leaders reaffirmed their commitment to protecting children from vaccine-preventable diseases, raising $9 billion for @gavi. This reflects strong global confidence in vaccines as one of the most effective investments in global health. As a founding partner, the @gatesfoundation committe… Related
18 June 2025
Independent AI policy researcher; led policy research at OpenAI from 2018 to 2024, latterly as senior adviser for AGI readiness.
5 June 2025
Chief executive of Alphabet and Google; joined Google in 2004 and led Chrome and Android before taking over in 2015.
Their words
I almost feel the term doesn't matter, what I know is by 2030 there'll be such dramatic progress. We'll be dealing with the consequences of that progress, both the positive externalities and the negative externalities that come with it in a big way by 2030. So that I strongly feel.
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youtube.com
4 June 2025
Creator of Flask and Jinja. Writes about software at lucumr.pocoo.org.
LLMs
Their words, before
The problem is that the conversational interface is potent and that the AI is trained on a lot of human text input which unfortunately is probably enough to do real damage if that conversational interface is hooked up with something that has real world consequences.
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Their words now
While all this is happening, I’ve found myself reflecting a lot on what AI means to the world and I am becoming increasingly optimistic about our future. It’s obvious now that we’re undergoing a tremendous shift.
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3 June 2025
Research scientist at Anthropic; co-creator of the Variational Autoencoder and, with Jimmy Ba, of the Adam optimizer, two of the most widely used tools in deep learning.
It's already the case that people's free will gets hijacked by screens for hours a day, with lots of negative consequences. AI video can make this worse, since it's directly optimizable. AI video has positive uses, but most of it will be fast food for the mind. Quoting @karpathy Very impressed with Veo 3 and all the things people are finding on r/aivideo etc. Makes a big difference qualitatively when you add audio. There are a few macro aspects to video generation that may not be fully appreciated: 1. Video is the highest bandwidth input to brain. Not just for entertainmen… Related
30 May 2025
Zurich-based value investor who ran the Aquamarine Fund from 1997 to 2025 and wrote The Education of a Value Investor. He hosts the VALUEx gathering in Klosters and publishes a podcast and newsletter.
From one piece
Israel and Iran
2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
12 May 2025
Energy and decarbonisation analyst; publishes an annual chart deck on the state of the transition, and was chief content officer at BloombergNEF.
20 August 2024
Economist at the Hoover Institution; wrote The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and blogs as The Grumpy Economist.
3 January 2024
General partner at Andreessen Horowitz and author of The Cold Start Problem. Previously led rider growth teams at Uber; has blogged on growth, network effects and marketplaces since 2007.
Their words
This reframes a lot of the conflict over the past decades as a rivalry between Iran/KSA
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andrewchen.com
3 December 2023
Theoretical physicist and cosmologist, Frank B. Baird, Jr. Professor of Science at Harvard University, working on particle physics, extra dimensions and dark matter.
Their words
That’s also why I like the dark disk because there’s a scientific story behind it. As far-fetched as it might sound, you could actually go and look for the experimental consequences, for the observational consequences to test whether it’s true.
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youtube.com
27 November 2023
Economic historian writing on the Industrial Revolution, the Great Divergence and the origins of modern growth.
Briefly relaxing my Twitter embargo to suggest that you read @oliverwkim's JMP, on the economic consequences of the Household Responsibility System in China. It's a clever and counterintuitive example of how creative data work can help us answer important historical questions. Quoting @oliverwkim 🚀JMP alert🚀 My paper w @FergJoel applies machine learning to 1970s-80s satellite imagery to revisit one of the 🇨🇳 Chinese Miracle's first major reforms, the Household Responsibility System—the end of collective socialist agriculture. What we found was quite surprising. 🧵 China Related
15 October 2023
Founder of OpenStreetMap, the collaborative map of the world; later worked on mapping at Microsoft and Telenav.
Their words
you should be frightened of smart people who don't read. They're the ones that build Jurassic Park, or send all the dentists to build a dam.
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Orbitals stevecoast.com
30 May 2022
Founder of OpenStreetMap, the collaborative map of the world; later worked on mapping at Microsoft and Telenav.
Their words
I'm reminded I'm in a huge dynamical system and making a change has unforeseen and unintended consequences.
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Jungle VIP stevecoast.com
4 March 2022
Computer science professor at Georgetown University and author of Deep Work, Digital Minimalism and Slow Productivity; writes about focus, technology and work at calnewport.com and hosts the Deep Questions podcast.
Their words
Science journalist Jacob Ward warns about a future in which AI technology forms a tight cybernetic feedback loop with the biases ingrained into the human brain, pushing our day-to-day existence in frightening directions. It's sort of like a version of The Terminator in which Danny Kahneman plays a starring role. As longtime readers and listeners of mine know, a big theme in my techno-criticism is the under-appreciated degree to which technologies exert powerful, unintended consequences on our personhood and culture, so Ward's warning hits a sweet spot with me.
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calnewport.com
18 January 2021
Writer and consultant on formal methods and software correctness; author of Practical TLA+ and Logic for Programmers.
21 December 2020
Rust engineer at Google working on Android; maintains Tokio and works on Rust in the Linux kernel.
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A korrent is a belief a person has stated in their own words: one
sentence stating the claim, backed by a quote and a source, kept at
korrents.com .
Under a name here, the quoted block is what they actually said.
The korrent beneath it is the claim those words support, in
korrents' wording — tap it to see the record, its source, and who
else holds it.
Nobody here wrote their own korrents. They are compiled from public
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