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19 September
From one piece Better Debt 2 beliefs · grumpy-economist.com
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Their words
In QE, the Treasury issued long-term bonds. The Fed bought up the long bonds, issued overnight debt, and passed the interest difference back to the Treasury. In the end, it is just as if the Treasury issued overnight debt in the first place.
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Their words
The tradeoff between cost of borrowing and how much interest rate risk taxpayers shoulder should be squarely on the shoulders of the politically-accountable Treasury not the independent Fed.
18 September
17 September
16 September
14 September
13 September
12 September
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korrents.com
Higher real interest rates reflect a more optimistic collective view of future economic abundance.Their words
Higher real rates mean that the average view of the future is more abundant, and that it's worth sacrificing more to get to that future sooner.
11 September
10 September
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korrents.com
The simplest explanation for rising long-term interest rates is a surge in demand for funds from the AI boom.Their words
The simplest story consistent with the facts is that we’re seeing a surge in demand for funds as a result of the AI boom.
7 September
6 September
4 September
3 September
2 September
29 August
28 August
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Their words
But I think there have been enough studies now isolating those variables that show that AI is directly responsible for a lot of this job loss.
21 August
From one piece How Countries Go Broke: The Dynamic Behind What is Happening Now 2 beliefs · raydalio.substack.com
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Their words
The debt dynamics work the same for a central government as they do for a person or a company, except that a central government has a central bank that can print money (which devalues it) and it can take money away from people via taxes.
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Their words
Early in the final stage of the Big Debt Cycle, the market action reflects this dynamic via interest rates rising led by long-term rates, the currency declining especially relative to gold, and the central government’s treasury department shortening the maturities of its debt offerings because of a shortage of the demand for long-term debt.
20 August
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korrents.com
Certainty about God is eroding at the same rate on the left and the right, and only the starting level differs.Their words
the drop in certain belief is the same size for both liberals and conservatives. It’s 15 percentage points when comparing the oldest respondents to the youngest.
3 August
29 July
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Their words
So, it's hard to tell how much of like the loss of the past few years was AI versus the end of like zero interest rate policy and like the post-COVID crash. And I think it's more the latter, but like again, LLMs are still getting better.
22 July
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Their words
To put this same story another way, the European car industry in the early 2020s was a prime example of greedflation i.e. companies taking advantage of the COVID shock and other disruptions and to hike profits at the expense of consumers.
12 July
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Their words
Just like Hollywood once compared Netflix to the Albanian Army, the US establishment doesn’t yet understand how much better Satoshi Nakamoto or Vitalik Buterin is than every apparatchik they have in the Federal Reserve system.
10 July
1 July
23 June
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korrents.com
Dreading a future experience causes much of human suffering by making that imagined suffering happen now.Their words
A large percentage of human suffering is anticipatory tension, or dreading a future experience such that you actualize its potential suffering in the now.
Surrender as a non-stupid life strategysashachapin.substack.com
5 June
4 June
From one piece The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
things have to go really wrong for us to like just get over the threshold of uh you know, capital being productive enough to automate lots of work, but not be productive enough that that the interest rate is high and or the price of capital produced goods is falling a lot, okay? So, even without redistribution, a little bit of savings will save a lot of people.
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Their words
It might be that every robot now can turn into, you know, 100 robots next year, right? So, in units of robots the interest rate is 10,000%.
15 May
From one piece Fed Board Members: Stay In Your Seats 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Waging political war on a central bank does not serve a president's own political interests.Their words
A war on the Fed has not served Trump's political interests and generally does not serve any president's interests.
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korrents.com
Federal Reserve Board members have historically often resigned before completing their full terms.Their words
Federal Reserve Board members have often resigned their positions well before their 14-year terms expired, since that's quite a long time to spend in one position in government.
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korrents.com
The Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates rather than cut them to bring down inflation.Their words
I will be surprised if there are any votes for rate cuts, even from Warsh himself. The Fed may need to hike rates this year to tame inflation.
14 May
8 May
28 April
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korrents.com
The point of a grueling long-distance hike is to endure hardship, not to enjoy the scenery.Their words
The whole point of the AT, as far as I could tell, was to endure hardship, and I was about to quit before the first rainy hike and the tallest mountain.
23 March
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Their words
And so when you take these things in combination, I am absolutely certain that the world's GDP is going to accelerate in growth. I'm absolutely certain the percentage of that GDP that will be used for computation will be 100 times more than the past
13 March
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korrents.com
TSMC will never throw Apple off its leading node; Apple will simply stop mattering enough for TSMC to cater to it.Their words
and so I don't think TSMC would kick out Apple. I think Apple will become a smaller and smaller and smaller percentage of TSMC's revenue and therefore be less relevant for TSMC to cater to their demands.
9 March
25 January
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Their words
When you have a loss, a percentage loss, you have to have a greater percentage gain just to get back to where you were. In this case, a loss of 20% requires a gain of 25% to get back to where you were.
30 September 2025
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Their words
One of the ways to achieve freedom of thought is to remove your mind from the influences, the forces that manipulate you. That’s really important to realize the content you consume, especially on the internet, when a large percentage of it is designed to manipulate your mind. You have to disconnect yourself.
16 July 2025
From one piece The Jamie Dimon Interview: How JP Morgan Became an $800 Billion Bank 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
And the interest rate exposure was hidden by accounting. It was called held to maturity, where you don't have to mark even treasuries to market.
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korrents.com
A bank should be managed against the fat tails it can imagine, not against the stress test its regulator hands it.Their words
And so, I always look what I call the fat tails and manage that we can handle all the all the fat tails. And not the stress test the Fed gives us, but all the fat tails.
6 July 2025
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Their words
If a new monetary network with its own unit (i.e. not pegged to an existing currency as a credit rail on top of it, but rather a fully parallel system to central banks) is going to bootstrap from zero to massive, it requires upward volatility.
14 June 2025
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Their words
There are certainly math results which could only have been accomplished because there was a human authentication and an AI involved, but it's hard to disentangle credit. I mean, these tools, they do not replicate all the skills needed to do mathematics, but they can replicate some non-trivial percentage of them, 30, 40%, so they can fill in gaps.
30 April 2025
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Their words
It is the number one trend for pervading the world of gaming today. And it says that your game is quadratically more valuable the more percentage of a user's real-world friends they can connect to.
14 April 2025
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Their words
But the spike in interest rates require to do this would be huge. And the trade shock will cause a sharp recession, or worse, putting even more stress on the budget. A debt crisis is likely along the way as the US finds it impossible to roll over debt.
31 March 2025
3 February 2025
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Their words
This is why you want to work in post-training because the GPU cost for training is lower. So you can make a higher percentage of your training runs YOLO runs.
19 January 2025
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Their words
Friedman and Schwartz becomes the playbook for the Federal Reserve. We have lived through this, the financial crisis. The Federal Reserve is ready to loan. Covid, the Federal Reserve does all kinds of new things, because no Federal Reserve chair wants to be in Friedman-Schwartz 2.0 that somebody writes, where they're the bad guy who let the economy meltdown.
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Their words
And the percentage of those recipients sign up to become Dropbox users, and that accounts for 50% of acquisition. That is a stable, earned channel that nobody can compete with.
8 January 2025
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Their words
Since inflation is not primarily driven by private-sector lending in the current environment, making borrowing more expensive will not significantly cool the economy.
18 March 2024
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Their words
The way I think about it is not what percent of jobs AI will do, but what percent of tasks will AI do on over one time horizon. So if you think of all of the five-second tasks in the economy, five minute tasks, the five-hour tasks, maybe even the five-day tasks, how many of those can AI do?
6 November 2023
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Their words, before
If the future is like the past, this implies that debt rollovers—that is, the issuance of debt without a subsequent increase in taxes—may well be feasible. Put bluntly, public debt may have no fiscal cost.
Their words now
Across advanced economies, the celebrated ( r - g ), i.e., the difference between the interest rate and the growth rate, appears to have durably changed sign or, at a minimum, to have gone from a substantially negative number to a number closer to zero.
1 October 2023
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korrents.com
Interest rates have little effect on investment, and central banks have limited control over real interest rates.Their words
In the actual data, interest rates don’t seem to drive investment that much, and furthermore central bank influence over the real rate of interest typically is limited.
4 September 2023
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