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Tomasz Tunguz
x.com
Dario Amodei asked the industry to pace itself on a Saturday. But what does that word mean? Pacing is a policy question. Five camps priced the consequences & none named a speed.
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19 September
Working on @ampcode. Writing registerspill.thorstenball.com. Once authored interpreterbook.com and compilerbook.com.
Their words
Yes. Some people will be priced out of producing software. Just like only some people could afford a personal computer in the 80s and 90s, for the next few years, if you can’t get enough tokens, you’re playing second league.
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thorstenball.com
18 September
Writes The Pragmatic Engineer, the software-engineering newsletter, and wrote The Software Engineer's Guidebook. Formerly an engineering manager at Uber, and at Microsoft/Skype and Skyscanner before that.
Can we talk about how Apple and Google have been pacing the frontier for native iOS and Android apps with the App Store review unchanged since 2008 Google Related
Writes Don't Worry About the Vase, a near-daily account of what is happening in AI and what they think it means. Former Magic: the Gathering pro and trader; unusually willing to put a number on a belief and to grade their own past calls.
From one piece
The Preference Cascade Is Only Getting Started
2 beliefs · thezvi.substack.com
Founder and editor of ToolGuyd, a tool review site covering power tools, hand tools, workshop equipment and EDC gear. He writes under his first name on the site.
17 September
Founder and editor of ToolGuyd, a tool review site covering power tools, hand tools, workshop equipment and EDC gear. He writes under his first name on the site.
14 September
Technology writer of Spyglass, a newsletter about technology and media. Previously a reporter at TechCrunch and an investor at GV.
This now feels quaint from just a month ago, pondering the possibility of “pacing”… Related
Venture capitalist and founder of Theory Ventures, previously a partner at Redpoint. Writes a near-daily blog on startups, SaaS metrics, data and AI.
Are we seeing an AI pacing rotation? 🧵 While mega-cap infrastructure digested capex today (ORCL -4.3%, NVDA -2.8%), software surged : • Median SaaS stock up +4.5% (avg +5.2%) • 12 companies gained >= 10% in a single day • 92% of the index closed green (80 of 87) SaaS Related
Writes Don't Worry About the Vase, a near-daily account of what is happening in AI and what they think it means. Former Magic: the Gathering pro and trader; unusually willing to put a number on a belief and to grade their own past calls.
Writes The Diff, a newsletter on inflections in finance and tech read by hedge fund managers, founders and VCs. Previously worked in finance at SAC Capital/Point72.
AI research engineer working on large language models. He writes the Ahead of AI newsletter and is the author of Build a Large Language Model (From Scratch).
Since I had to discuss the "pacing" with a lot of people this weekend, here are my two cents: I don't think pacing literally means that these companies will be "slowing down" training and development in any way. "Pacing" here means adding a framework for more checks. We have seen some of that "pacing" already in recent months, when Mythos wasn't released as-is but instead a delayed, nerfed Fable variant was released. Or when Astra wasn't released right away / there is an existing Astra model that hasn't been released yet. These Mythos/Fable and Astra pacing decisions were ad hoc. If you are a… Related
13 September
Founder and chief executive of Replit. Previously an engineer at Facebook and Codecademy. Writes essays on programming, philosophy and entrepreneurship at amasad.me.
It was painful to see so many users being priced out of AI coding for a while. But now it’s free to build again! Quoting @Kyrannio Replit introducing free mode is the best thing they have ever done, but even if you are not using free mode, you are really getting a screaming great deal to develop with at present. Development costs everywhere are going to go up as the newer models come out, but I genuinely can't recommend Replit… Related
Creator of the Keras deep-learning library and the ARC-AGI benchmark.
AI alignment government
Their words
If there really is a high chance of AI leading to the extinction of humanity within years/decades, then the only rational stance towards safety monitoring and research pacing should be stringent, top-down government involvement and universally ratified international treaties.
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@fchollet on X x.com
12 September
Former L8 engineer at Meta, Microsoft and Atlassian, now writing and building solo on agentic engineering. Writes Kun's Field Notes and posts a lot about AI coding agents on X.
while all the frontier labs are just talking about slowing down, blizzard emerged as the first to take real action in pacing their development Quoting @StarCraft DEFEND MANKIND. JOIN THE DOMINION. STARCRAFT. 2030. Related
Creator of Flask and Jinja. Writes about software at lucumr.pocoo.org.
Their words
A powerful technology that is out there for everyone to use comes with built-in pacing. In a way it’s the truest form of MAD or proliferation.
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P(doom) lucumr.pocoo.org
9 September
Founded Bridgewater Associates in 1975 and led it until stepping back from control in 2022. Author of Principles, The Changing World Order and How Countries Go Broke; publishes economic analysis at economicprinciples.org.
Almost every technology boom creates a bubble, then a bust, whether it’s railroads, the Industrial Revolution, or the late 1920s. Think about the late '20s: electricity, refrigeration, telephones, radios, airplanes, and cars were all emerging at once. Naturally, people wanted to invest in these miracles. The danger is that people fail to distinguish the miracle from the investment. A technology can be truly transformative, but if the stocks are priced too high or bought on debt, you get a crash. That is the mechanics behind how bubbles form and burst. New technology will be great, there is no… energy Related
31 August
Venture capitalist and founder of Theory Ventures, previously a partner at Redpoint. Writes a near-daily blog on startups, SaaS metrics, data and AI.
The frontier AI market is sorting itself into closed camps, as labs pick partners, cut rivals, & ration access to their strongest models. Related
German developer; founder and lead developer of Mastodon, the decentralized open-source social network.
RE: https://cosocial.ca/@mhoye/117190449442518308 On the one end people are being priced out of running web services due to hardware shortages caused by AI, on the other end those who still run web services are being bled dry by AI scrapers essentially stealing compute. Related
21 August
Writer and technology executive; blogs at anildash.com, was CEO of Glitch, and helped build Movable Type and ThinkUp.
Their words
In short, the venture capitalists and CEOs of Silicon Valley have priced the costs of shame into their business plans.
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anildash.com
12 August
Co-founder and CTO of Honeycomb; previously an infrastructure engineer at Parse, Facebook and Linden Lab, and co-author of Observability Engineering.
From one piece
Stop being skeptical about AI for development with Charity Majors
2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
Their words
One of the things that's ironic though is that both of these sides feel like they are the tiny minority and they're outmanned and they're being suppressed and they are standing up for what is truth and valor in the face of the big AI folks or the big skeptics.
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youtube.com
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See, the problem is that neither side is making it up. Like they are seeing really scary trends.
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youtube.com
10 August
Co-creator of Django and creator of Datasette; writes daily at simonwillison.net.
Anthropic OpenAI
Their words
Claude Haiku is my current least favorite model - it hallucinates wildly, and is out-performed now by other similarly priced models like GPT-5.6-Luna
Even worse: it seems to still be used by the Claude Code WebFetch tool, which means hallucination risk any time you fetch a URL!
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@simonw on X x.com
3 August
Co-founder and head of policy at Anthropic; writes Import AI, a weekly newsletter reading the week's AI research, and was OpenAI's policy director before that.
23 July
Professor at Wharton studying how people actually use AI, and author of Co-Intelligence. Writes One Useful Thing, where the claims are dated and testable because the thing they describe keeps changing under them.
Their words
The more expensive plans are mostly buying you more hours of AI labor, not smarter AI.
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oneusefulthing.org
24 April
Professor of finance at NYU's Stern School of Business, known for his work on valuation. He publishes his data, spreadsheets and classes free at Damodaran Online and writes the Musings on Markets blog.
The SpaceX IPO is coming, and it will be a doozy, a futuristic company (spaceships, satellites and AI), a founder who will keep things interesting (Musk) and a price tag that may make it the most highly priced IPO of all time. bit.ly
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17 February
Product designer and entrepreneur; author of Mobile First and Web Form Design; formerly a product director at Google; now building AI products.
21 January
Entrepreneur and founder of Blueprint. Publishes a detailed, freely available longevity protocol documenting the food, supplements, devices and measurements he uses on himself.
3 December 2025
Professor of finance at NYU's Stern School of Business, known for his work on valuation. He publishes his data, spreadsheets and classes free at Damodaran Online and writes the Musings on Markets blog.
12 November 2025
Chairman and chief executive of Microsoft since 2014; joined the company in 1992 and ran its cloud business before that.
24 September 2025
Free software developer; maintainer of sway, wlroots, aerc and scdoc, and founder of the SourceHut (sr.ht) software forge.
Cloudflare bankrolls fascists US politics has been pretty fascist lately. The state is filling up concentration camps, engaging in mass state violence against people on the basis of racialized traits, deporting them to random countries without any r…
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8 September 2025
Writer and developer. He runs the Latent Space newsletter and podcast about AI engineering, and writes essays on software and careers at swyx.io.
15 August 2025
Founder of Terraform Industries and formerly a physicist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory; writes about energy, space and manufacturing.
Their words
because it's not competing against humans for most of those roles, it would be competing against the other labs, right? And so you'd actually see like the cost pushed down to, you know, a mult a small multiple of whatever the marginal production cost of those tokens is.
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youtube.com
9 July 2025
Co-founder and chief science officer of Hugging Face; writes about open models and where he thinks the field is wrong.
So excited to finally release our first robot today: Reachy Mini A dream come true: cute and low priced, hackable yet easy to use, powered by open-source and the infinite community. Read more and order now at huggingface.co
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