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Their words
Chokepoint risk does more than spike the spot price for a season. It re-prices geography permanently: it redirects the next decade of pipeline and terminal investment and hands a windfall to whoever sits on the alternative route.
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The the words it uses that this site has seen least often elsewhere. Posts are matched on those words alone — nothing here is a summary of this one.
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18 September
17 September
16 September
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korrents.com
China declined U.S. nuclear-talk proposals in 2023 and broke off meaningful arms control talks.Their words
During the 2023 U.S.-China nuclear talks, America proposed missile-launch notifications, a nuclear crisis hotline, and processes to limit the use of outer space for military conflict. China declined all of those. Blame the U.S. if you wish (do we always keep our word?), but that is what happened. China also broke off meaningful arms control talks.
When discussing AI policy, start with Chinamarginalrevolution.com
14 September
12 September
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Their words
They tended to underweight the endogenous response of political and military institutions to the catastrophe—the emergence of second-strike forces, elaborate command systems, crisis management, and above all mutually assured retaliation.
11 September
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korrents.com
Germany's crisis is too deep to be solved by conventional tax, spending, or regulatory adjustments.Their words
Germany is in trouble. But the trouble goes deep and cannot be addressed by "more of the same" socio-economic measures in the domain of taxes or social spending or regulation.
10 September
9 September
4 September
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Their words
We know less than we think The replication crisis is not an aberration Many of the things we believe are wrong We are often not even asking the right questions
3 September
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Their words
You know what actually motivates founders day-to-day? The fear of failure. Even though they're doing this thing that if they succeed they'll be super rich. Um that does motivate them but the thing that motivates them at the at any given moment is the fear of like disaster or looking like a fool, the server crashing, right?
From one piece The Crisis We've Been Waiting For 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Rising AI capability is undermining the assumptions that justify slow, manual government processes.Their words
AI creates a crisis by making the assumptions on which government operates untenable.
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korrents.com
A crisis is defined not by how severe a problem is but by whether it hits people powerful enough to force change.Their words
Crises aren't defined by how bad a problem is. They're defined by when the bad outcomes hit people with the ability to make a stink.
2 September
1 September
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Their words
This is the sole intrinsic thing about AI that prevents agents from truly infinite self-replication. They will be constrained by the need to find and pay for sufficient compute to run themselves.
29 August
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korrents.com
How much worse the climate crisis becomes depends on how many people publicly demand systemic change now.Their words
However worse the climate crisis gets now depends on how quickly society transforms. How quickly society transforms depends on how many people demand it.
28 August
From one piece My Most Contrarian Opinion Right Now 3 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
I think the fact that the government took on debt during two crises to help households was a good trade-off.
My Most Contrarian Opinion Right Nowawealthofcommonsense.com
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korrents.com
The real danger of high government debt is the policy errors it provokes, not a debt crisis.Their words
But I am worried about high government debt levels causing policy errors.
My Most Contrarian Opinion Right Nowawealthofcommonsense.com
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korrents.com
The United States is not at risk of a financial crisis caused by the size of its government debt.Their words
So my baseline assumption is that people will continue complaining about the trillions of dollars we have in debt but it won’t lead to a financial crisis.
My Most Contrarian Opinion Right Nowawealthofcommonsense.com
21 August
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Their words
Because one can measure these things, one can monitor this debt dynamic happening, so it’s easy to see problems approaching. I’ve used this diagnostic process in my investing and I’ve kept it to myself, but I’m now explaining it in detail in How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle because it is too important to keep to myself.
10 August
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korrents.com
Pattern recognition and replication is fundamentally what machine-learning systems do best.Their words
So of course AI has adopted it; pattern-recognition/replication is what machines do best.
5 July
2 July
1 July
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Their words
and I thought programming sitting fingers on keyboard staring at code that's that's where I do my learning because that's where you can no longer fool yourself that you actually understand either you compute the correct value or you don't compute the correct value. So I wanted to elevate that moment of reality meets program and that's where the programming comes from.
27 June
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korrents.com
Smartphones and social media amplify the youth mental health crisis but are not its root cause.Their words
Modern technology may be an amplifier, but it isn't the root cause.
3 June
26 May
18 May
22 April
From one piece Designing Data-intensive Applications with Martin Kleppmann 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Replication earns its place even in a small system, because what it buys is fault tolerance rather than scale.Their words
And uh replication is still relevant even at smaller scales because that's for fault tolerance, that's not for scalability.
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Their words
And now suddenly people are building databases on top of object stores, for example. And now the replication happens at the object store level, no longer at the database level.
7 April
19 March
12 March
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Their words
Everybody thinks our schools are in crisis all the time because they’re being forced to do something they were never meant to do, which is to make everyone college-ready, and they’re being forced to do that because we have seen jobs that provide a living wage without a college diploma evaporate.
11 March
13 February
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Their words
Like we see the end productivity every few months in the form of model launches. Like there's no kidding yourself about this. Like the models make you more productive.
9 January
5 October 2025
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Their words
And it's like the growth experimentation is more the the the slow and steady or fast and steady, I should say, uh approach where you're just continually iterating. You're making the product experience better, but then every so often, right, there's a big wave that comes in. you can quadruple your, you know, registrations overnights and yeah, you'd be a fool not to take advantage of that.
26 September 2025
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Their words
then we're entering the age of design where because our AIs are designed our our our all of our physical objects are designed our buildings are designed our technology is designed and we're we're designing now uh AIs things that can be intelligent themselves and that are themselves capable of design
18 September 2025
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Their words
The “climate crisis” has been taught as gospel for 20 years. Now the average person can see their teachers have been preaching politics in the name of science.
13 August 2025
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Their words
And remember that DeepSeek happened in times of crisis, urgency, not in times of comfort. A lot of these technological breakthroughs and leapfrogging happens in times of crisis. This is called crisis innovation. And you got to thank the US for that. When the Chinese were comfortably importing chips from the US, the whole industry stalled for 20 years.
16 July 2025
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Their words
1929, and man, history does rhyme. Too much leverage, too much risk. Everyone thinks it's going to be great. No one thinks it's going to go down a lot.
24 May 2025
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Their words
And this is why I say that history doesn’t repeat itself. Of course it doesn’t. It can’t possibly repeat itself because we’re always living in a constantly evolving time. But patterns of human behaviour do. And what you always get after economic crisis is political upheaval, always, always, always.
21 May 2025
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korrents.com
Means-testing the winter fuel payment is a tough decision that has to be taken, and it should stand.Their words, before
No Prime Minister wants to do what we have to do in relation to the winter fuel allowance, but we have to take the tough decision to stabilise our economy to ensure that we can grow it for the future.
Their words now
However, I recognise that people are still feeling the pressure of the cost of living crisis, including pensioners, and as the economy improves, we want to make sure that people feel those improvements each day as their lives go forward. That is why we want to ensure that more pensioners are eligible for winter fuel payments as we go forward.
5 May 2025
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Their words
I’m unhappy with that. I would not be happy with information loss. I love that it’s telling us that there’s this crisis because I do think it’s giving us the clues, and we have to take them seriously.
14 April 2025
From one piece Tariffs, saving, and investment 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
But the spike in interest rates require to do this would be huge. And the trade shock will cause a sharp recession, or worse, putting even more stress on the budget. A debt crisis is likely along the way as the US finds it impossible to roll over debt.
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korrents.com
America borrowed cheaply from the world and spent it on consumption rather than investment, exactly as Greece did.Their words
In sum, spurred on by the federal government (in many ways), the US borrowed a huge amount from foreigners at very low rates, and went on a consumption binge. Sooner or later we have to pay it back, or we go though the wrenching adjustment of a debt crisis.
12 February 2025
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korrents.com
Aid to African states has been large enough to warp their politics and too small to transform their economies.Their words
As scholars like Nicolas van de Walle have pointed out, aid can also foster an unhealthy dependency—in his coinage, many African states live in a state of “permanent crisis”, where aid is large enough to reshape (and warp) the political economy around it, but not large enough to be fundamentally transform countries’ economies.
20 January 2025
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korrents.com
The inflation of the early 2020s was caused by government overspending and rising energy prices.Their words
The inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices, and that is why today I will also declare a national energy emergency.
19 January 2025
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Their words
Friedman and Schwartz becomes the playbook for the Federal Reserve. We have lived through this, the financial crisis. The Federal Reserve is ready to loan. Covid, the Federal Reserve does all kinds of new things, because no Federal Reserve chair wants to be in Friedman-Schwartz 2.0 that somebody writes, where they're the bad guy who let the economy meltdown.
8 January 2025
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korrents.com
The United States is not at risk of a financial crisis caused by the size of its government debt.Their words
Stabilizing factors such as the global demand for U.S. dollars and debt denominated in its own currency suggest an era of fiscal dominance in the U.S. that's less dramatic than alarmists predict but more persistent and intractable than optimists hope.
22 December 2024
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Their words
Does every technological civilization trigger its own planetary crisis, its own climate Anthropocene crisis? And the answer we actually came up from doing models was like, yeah, probably.
5 December 2024
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
The Twenty Years' Crisis, 1919-1939Their words
There is no better time than now to read E. H. Carr’s The twenty years’ crisis 1919 39
7 October 2024
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Recommendsrcmnd.app
The Big ShortTheir words
the Big Short is a dramatization of a gang of outsiders (and insiders who are presented as outsiders for narrative convenience, a theme Lewis will return to frequently, not always with self-awareness) who correctly predict the mechanism and course of the global financial crisis.
30 September 2024
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korrents.com
We are wasting our time trying to reverse the climate crisis instead of building the technology to survive it.Their words
I think you have some guys that have their finger on the pulse there. We need to start thinking about how we’re going to survive this, not that we’re going to make it go away.
24 September 2024
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Their words
Since then, these unconventional monetary policies have increasingly become the dominant force moving asset prices.
31 August 2024
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Their words
One is to take an average of the choices that other writers have made, as represented by text found on the Internet; that average is equivalent to the least interesting choices possible, which is why A.I.-generated text is often really bland.
24 March 2024
4 March 2024
From one piece Serhii Plokhy: History of Ukraine, Russia, Soviet Union, KGB, Nazis & War | Lex Fridman Podcast #415 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
So people who believe that they’re in control really are not in control, and that can escalate whether they very often against their wishes.
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Their words
The crisis occurred because of the nuclear weapons, because Khrushchev put them on Cuba, but the crisis was resolved and we didn’t end in the third World War because of the nuclear weapons, because people, leaders were afraid of them.
26 December 2023
23 December 2023
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Their words
In reality, the productivity crisis in the pharmaceutical industry is the culmination of decades of just about every aspect of drug discovery and development getting gradually harder and more expensive.
15 November 2023
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korrents.com
Models fine-tuned to imitate another model's outputs copy its style without acquiring its factual accuracy.Their words
Models that are instruction-tuned on ChatGPT-generated data mimic ChatGPT's style (and may thus fool human raters!) but not its factuality
22 September 2023
29 August 2023
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Their words
But I’ve become increasingly worried that science’s replication crises might pale in comparison to what happens all the time in history, which is not just a replication crisis but a reproducibility crisis.
23 July 2023
11 April 2023
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korrents.com
Large replication projects answer the wrong question, because most individual studies do not matter either way.Their words
There’s no point in picking some studies that are convenient to replicate, doing ‘em over, and reporting “only 36% of them replicate!”
16 January 2023
From one piece I asked Chat GPT to write a song in the style of Nick Cave and this is what it produced. What do you think? 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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korrents.com
Making something great is the opposite of resembling what is already recognised as great.Their words
What makes a great song great is not its close resemblance to a recognizable work. Writing a good song is not mimicry, or replication, or pastiche, it is the opposite.
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Their words
What ChatGPT is, in this instance, is replication as travesty. ChatGPT may be able to write a speech or an essay or a sermon or an obituary but it cannot create a genuine song.
27 December 2022
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Their words
We know how easily these practices can distort the scientific record and give us false-positive, nonsense results.
11 October 2022
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korrents.com
Published effect sizes shrink as more studies are done, and that decline is what the replication crisis is made of.Their words
The decline effect is the idea that scientific findings get smaller over time. That is, initial findings tend to report effect sizes that then crumble away—sometimes to nothing—with subsequent research.
1 June 2022
From one piece Fiscal Policy under Low Interest Rates 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Real interest rates have steadily declined in all major economies for more than three decades. This decline was not caused by the Global Financial Crisis or the Covid crisis.
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Their words
This is precisely the role the central bank can play. By announcing that it stands ready to buy the bonds that investors want to sell at the price associated with the low interest rate, and credibly indicating that it has deep enough pockets to buy whatever is needed, it can eliminate the bad equilibrium.
7 April 2022
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korrents.com
Climate change is the existential crisis of our timeTheir words
Climate change is the existential crisis of our time. We need more ideas and progress in every sector, including software-based approaches to preventing emissions and sequestering carbon.
16 August 2021
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Their words
What's true of both the crisis situation and the daily situation is that at any given moment, you can only ever actually be doing one thing.
15 May 2020
12 May 2014
21 March 2011
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korrents.com
Nuclear power is the wrong technology for cutting carbon: efficiency and renewables can do the job without it.Their words, before
Some of our arguments against nuclear power have collapsed, but it seems to me that the case is still robust.
Their words now
The crisis at Fukushima has converted me to the cause of nuclear power.
6 September 2010
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korrents.com
A severe US banking crisis is very unlikely.Their words, before
In 2007 I thought it very unlikely that there would be a severe US banking crisis.
Their words now
In 2007 I thought it very unlikely that there would be a severe US banking crisis.
1 January 1998
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