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John Cochrane Blog
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18 September
17 September
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Their words
The current problem with prices might be one part AI construction boom, but it is one part Trump's tariffs and one part Trump's war in Iran as well.
16 September
14 September
13 September
11 September
10 September
7 September
5 September
4 September
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Their words
It looks to me like OpenAI’s sandbox for this agent suffered from the (quite naïve) assumption that GET requests cannot be used to update data. That’s certainly how the web is supposed to work, but clearly there are applications that don’t hold to that contract.
3 September
2 September
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korrents.com
Applying scale-first, profit-later to every business is a cookbook that turns small failures into big ones.Their words
Any investor or founder who blindly follows the pathway of scaling first and profiting later for every business is using a cookbook approach to business building, and runs the risk of making small failures into big ones.
29 August
14 August
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korrents.com
Design is about making things meaningful and memorable: get the idea right and the form follows from it.Their words
always focus on making things meaningful and memorable. And I think the heart of that is have a good idea and then the form will follow.
7 August
4 August
3 August
1 August
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korrents.com
China's real exchange rate should appreciate through higher domestic inflation, not currency revaluation.Their words
My view is that an appreciation of China's REER is very much to be desired, but the real (haha) way to get there is through higher inflation domestically, and that means different macro policies.
9 July
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Their words
So if you do a pure chronological feed, the incentive for everybody is to just post as much as possible uh because it will always be at the top of everyone who follows you's feed as soon as you post.
30 June
28 June
25 June
18 June
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Likedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
The Great WhenTheir words
It is an epic tale full of rogues and reprobates. The story is excellent even though the plot follows a fairly basic structure. Although set up to be a series, it is a satisfying stand-alone tale.
14 June
11 June
10 June
8 June
6 June
4 June
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Their words
if I had to guess I would guess that the kind of long kind of general trend of just like lowering those frictions and making it easier for more and more people to index more and more will continue despite the recent bump in the other direction.
2 June
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korrents.com
Explicit signals like follows and subscriptions are as brittle and hard to maintain as manually tuned filter rules.Their words
Following and subscribing are heavyweight signals, and thus suffer from the same problem of manually tuning rules and filters.
29 May
19 May
15 May
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korrents.com
The Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates rather than cut them to bring down inflation.Their words
I will be surprised if there are any votes for rate cuts, even from Warsh himself. The Fed may need to hike rates this year to tame inflation.
23 April
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Their words
Construction costs tend to rise at, or above, the level of overall inflation, and it rarely (if ever) gets cheaper to build houses, offices, or other buildings.
13 April
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korrents.com
The practical instruction that follows from the research is simple and hard to do: listen and read a great deal.Their words
The practical takeaway from SLA research is both simple and demanding: you need to listen and read a lot.
1 April
From one piece Scaling Uber with Thuan Pham (Uber's first CTO) 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
we have a very clear definition and expectation of what it is at the staff engineer level because we benchmark ourselves to all the great company out there Google, Facebook and all that
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Their words
that was the most brilliant thing because by doing the hardest thing first once you launch that everything else is downhill from there
11 March
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Their words
There were booms and busts, and cumulative price inflation was zero, and the United States went from a new-world emerging backwater in the late 1700s to being the world's largest economy by the late 1800s.
21 January
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korrents.com
The single most effective free thing anyone can do for their health is to lower their resting heart rate before bed.Their words
After spending years working on health, lowering your resting heart rate (RHR) before bed is the single most effective thing you can do for your health.
28 December 2025
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Lovedrcmnd.app
PlaygroundTheir words
Playground by Richard Powers is a strange and wonderful novel set (mostly) on a remote atoll in French Polynesia that follows the tangled lives of an environmental advocate, a sculptor, a tech entrepreneur, and a brilliant bookworm trying to escape the grinding poverty of Chicago's South Side. The richly drawn characters drive the story, but what I love most about the book is that it's a love letter to the ocean with prose that comes closer than anything else I've read to capturing what it feels like to, for example, dive a thriving coral reef.
25 December 2025
10 October 2025
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inflationdata centersenergyAmerica
Their words
This is the first conclusion of my deep dive: Data centers have (so far) not affected national average household electricity bills.
30 September 2025
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korrents.com
The one muscle worth training is self-discipline; once that is trained, everything else follows by itself.Their words
I think the main muscle you can exercise is this muscle, the muscle of self-discipline. Not your biceps or your pecs or anything else. Because if you get to train that one, everything else just comes by itself.
18 September 2025
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Their words
what you are try like trying to do as a tool maker, as an infrastructure builder, um as a product maker is you want to make a uh tool that brings the floor up significantly, but doesn't constrain the ceiling. And that is extremely hard.
10 June 2025
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korrents.com
A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject.Their words
It follows that a true AGI with full, human-level autonomy is inconceivable in the Kantian sense without also gaining our recognition as a moral subject.
24 May 2025
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Their words
And this is why I say that history doesn’t repeat itself. Of course it doesn’t. It can’t possibly repeat itself because we’re always living in a constantly evolving time. But patterns of human behaviour do. And what you always get after economic crisis is political upheaval, always, always, always.
23 March 2025
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Their words
I always say the same thing when it comes to pricing, which is before you figure out pricing, you must first figure out positioning.
19 February 2025
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Their words
Since signaling, not building human capital, is the main function of education, the main effect of government subsidies is credential inflation.
3 February 2025
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Their words
But the funniest thing I think that comes out of this is Jevons paradox is true. AWS pricing for H100s has gone up over the last couple of weeks, since a little bit after Christmas, since V3 was launched, AWS H100 pricing has gone up.
29 January 2025
20 January 2025
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korrents.com
The inflation of the early 2020s was caused by government overspending and rising energy prices.Their words
The inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices, and that is why today I will also declare a national energy emergency.
19 January 2025
From one piece Jennifer Burns: Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, Economics, Capitalism, Freedom | Lex Fridman Podcast #457 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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inflationimmigrationgovernment
Their words
And so my argument is, that has now opened the door to the presidency of Donald Trump, which is potentially a deeply transformative moment that will change the size and shape of government, that may change our foreign policy profoundly, that may change our immigration policy, that may change the demographics of our country, all of that, and my thesis is that that's all been made possible by inflation.
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Their words
And so the great mistake of the past years was to forget how fundamental inflation was to the rise of the last political order and to profoundly underestimate how much inflation would change the current political order.
13 January 2025
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Their words
A glut follows every semiconductor shortage.
8 January 2025
From one piece Full Steam Ahead: All Aboard Fiscal Dominance 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Since inflation is not primarily driven by private-sector lending in the current environment, making borrowing more expensive will not significantly cool the economy.
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Their words
Structural fiscal deficits have surpassed private sector lending and monetary policy as the primary drivers of economic activity and inflation, marking a fundamental shift in the economy's liquidity dynamics.
31 August 2024
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Their words
The task that generative A.I. has been most successful at is lowering our expectations, both of the things we read and of ourselves when we write anything for others to read.
20 August 2024
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Their words
We got inflation, but we did not get the devastation that would have been caused by price controls and rationing.
22 March 2024
From one piece Annie Jacobsen: Nuclear War, CIA, KGB, Aliens, Area 51, Roswell & Secrecy | Lex Fridman Podcast #420 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
You don’t wind up as STRATCOM commander unless you are someone who follows orders. You follow orders.
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Their words
First millions, then tens of millions, then hundreds of millions of people will die in the first 72 minutes of a nuclear war. And then, comes nuclear winter where the billions happen from starvation.
28 February 2024
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korrents.com
Routing prompts to different AI models can improve response quality while lowering cost and latency.Their words
Model routing has the potential to increase response quality while reducing costs and latency.
22 February 2024
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Lovedaffiliate linkrcmnd.app
HeadshotTheir words
Rita Bullwinkel follows up her excellent and weird story collection Belly Up with a knockout punch of a debut
6 November 2023
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Their words
It is fair to say that, while economists expected the short end of the yield curve to reflect the higher rates needed to win the fight against inflation, the sharply steeper long end of the yield curve in the last few months has come as a surprise. I shall freely admit that I did not predict it.
30 April 2023
14 January 2023
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Their words, before
The Fed needs PCE inflation to average 1.96% for the remainder of the decade in order to hit their AIT target.
Their words now
I assumed they intended inflation to average roughly 2% during the 2020s.
12 January 2023
1 June 2022
From one piece Fiscal Policy under Low Interest Rates 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Japanese macroeconomic policy is often characterized as a failure, with the central bank unable to achieve its inflation target, a low growth rate, and debt ratios steadily rising to reach more than 170% for net debt and 250% for gross debt. I think it should be seen instead as a qualified success, with the use of aggressive fiscal and monetary policies to compensate for very weak private demand: Output has remained close to potential.
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inflationinterest ratesgovernment
Their words
Governments have not been bailed out by their central banks. As I discussed earlier, central bank intervention does not reduce the overall liabilities of the consolidated government, just their composition. And it does not automatically lead to more inflation: It increases the size of the balance sheet of the central bank, but it does not increase the size of the non-interest-paying money stock.
1 March 2022
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