Aswath Damodaran
Professor of finance at NYU's Stern School of Business, known for his work on valuation. He publishes his data, spreadsheets and classes free at Damodaran Online and writes the Musings on Markets blog.
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What they believe
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Applying scale-first, profit-later to every business is a cookbook that turns small failures into big ones.
Any investor or founder who blindly follows the pathway of scaling first and profiting later for every business is using a cookbook approach to business building, and runs the risk of making small failures into big ones.
aswathdamodaran.blogspot.comSaid 2 Sept 2026This on korrents
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AI’s total addressable market in the United States cannot exceed what American employers pay their employees, about $13 trillion a year.
I would argue that AI's total addressable market, in the US, cannot be greater than $12.96 trillion, the total employee compensation in 2025
aswathdamodaran.blogspot.comSaid 20 Aug 2026This on korrents
The bold line is korrents’ wording; the quote is theirs. These 2: what they wrote before what they said aloud, one per source, newest first.
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As its own page →Hiding
8 October
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2 September
From one piece The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link! 5 beliefs · aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com
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Their words
While it was routine for companies going public in the 1980s to be profitable (>80% were), less that a quarter of the companies that have gone public in the last decade have been profitable.
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Their words
there is evidence that the reversal effect has weakened over time, leaving investors who bet on mean reversion and a return to fundamentals in the lurch
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Their words
the median venture capitalist has not been much better at harvesting alpha than the median mutual fund manager or PE investor
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Their words
VC success is measured based on price at entry and price at exit on an investment, rather than the quality of the business built
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korrents.com
Applying scale-first, profit-later to every business is a cookbook that turns small failures into big ones.Their words
Any investor or founder who blindly follows the pathway of scaling first and profiting later for every business is using a cookbook approach to business building, and runs the risk of making small failures into big ones.
1 September
20 August
From one piece AI’s Bar Mitzvah Moment: From Hype & Hope to Business Questions! 3 beliefs · aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com
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korrents.com
The trillion-plus prices rumoured for OpenAI and Anthropic ahead of their listings look rich.Their words
I will confess that the rumored pricing for both companies ($1.5 to $ 2 trillion) looks rich, but I am open to being surprised
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Their words
anyone who claims to have conviction that they know what's coming is being either ignorant or arrogant
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Their words
I would argue that AI's total addressable market, in the US, cannot be greater than $12.96 trillion, the total employee compensation in 2025
11 August
1 August
28 July
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19 June
18 June
From one piece SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic: The S&P 500 Inclusion Question and Investment Consequences! 3 beliefs · aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com
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Their words
Much of active investing is built around publicly available information and a belief in the power of mean reversion, not original research and seeking information.
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korrents.com
Active investing collectively drags down portfolio returns, and the evidence leaves almost no counter-argument.Their words
there is almost no counter to the argument that active investing collectively creates a drag on portfolio performance
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Their words
Doomsday stories about how passive investing is making markets less efficient and less inclined to reflect fundamentals strike me as overwrought
4 June
1 June
7 May
2 May
Nothing matches.
Beliefs
Korrents What they believe 15 beliefs — each backed by an exact quote.
Each is a — compiled by korrents.com, not by them: the one-line wordings are korrents', the quotes are theirs.
Recent
Applying scale-first, profit-later to every business is a cookbook that turns small failures into big ones.
Any investor or founder who blindly follows the pathway of scaling first and profiting later for every business is using a cookbook approach to business building, and runs the risk of making small failures into big ones.
The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link! Said 2 Sept 2026
Venture capitalists are judged on the price they entered and exited at, not on the quality of the business they built.
VC success is measured based on price at entry and price at exit on an investment, rather than the quality of the business built
The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link! Said 2 Sept 2026
The median venture capitalist has produced no more excess return than the median mutual-fund or private-equity manager.
the median venture capitalist has not been much better at harvesting alpha than the median mutual fund manager or PE investor
The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link! Said 2 Sept 2026
Show 12 more
The pull of fundamentals that used to reverse market momentum has weakened, so betting on mean reversion is more dangerous than it was.
there is evidence that the reversal effect has weakened over time, leaving investors who bet on mean reversion and a return to fundamentals in the lurch
The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link! Said 2 Sept 2026
Companies now go public later, bigger and unprofitable: fewer than a quarter of the last decade’s IPOs were making money.
While it was routine for companies going public in the 1980s to be profitable (>80% were), less that a quarter of the companies that have gone public in the last decade have been profitable.
The Scaling and Profitability Trade off: Venture Capital’s Weakest Link! Said 2 Sept 2026
AI’s total addressable market in the United States cannot exceed what American employers pay their employees, about $13 trillion a year.
I would argue that AI's total addressable market, in the US, cannot be greater than $12.96 trillion, the total employee compensation in 2025
AI’s Bar Mitzvah Moment: From Hype & Hope to Business Questions! Said 20 Aug 2026
Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching.
anyone who claims to have conviction that they know what's coming is being either ignorant or arrogant
AI’s Bar Mitzvah Moment: From Hype & Hope to Business Questions! Said 20 Aug 2026
The trillion-plus prices rumoured for OpenAI and Anthropic ahead of their listings look rich.
I will confess that the rumored pricing for both companies ($1.5 to $ 2 trillion) looks rich, but I am open to being surprised
AI’s Bar Mitzvah Moment: From Hype & Hope to Business Questions! Said 20 Aug 2026
The claim that passive investing has made markets less efficient is overwrought.
Doomsday stories about how passive investing is making markets less efficient and less inclined to reflect fundamentals strike me as overwrought
SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic: The S&P 500 Inclusion Question and Investment Consequences! Said 18 Jun 2026
Active investing collectively drags down portfolio returns, and the evidence leaves almost no counter-argument.
there is almost no counter to the argument that active investing collectively creates a drag on portfolio performance
SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic: The S&P 500 Inclusion Question and Investment Consequences! Said 18 Jun 2026
Most active investors are not hunting for information; they are betting on mean reversion in data everyone already has.
Much of active investing is built around publicly available information and a belief in the power of mean reversion, not original research and seeking information.
SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic: The S&P 500 Inclusion Question and Investment Consequences! Said 18 Jun 2026
A company priced in the trillions is not thereby overpriced; the test is what revenues and margins that price actually requires.
If you are an investor who considers any highly priced company to be overvalued, I hope that this post leads you to reconsider.
Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels? Said 3 Dec 2025
AI pricing is a big market delusion: each company’s implied revenues look plausible alone, but added together they exceed any market that could exist.
the delusion comes from the reality that if you aggregated these breakeven revenues across companies, the market is not big enough to sustain all of them
Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels? Said 3 Dec 2025
The revenue growth and margins needed to justify Nvidia’s and OpenAI’s late-2025 pricing are improbable.
I think that the pathway that you would need (in terms of revenue growth and profitability) to justify Nvidia's and OpenAI's current pricing is improbable, but that is just my view
Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels? Said 3 Dec 2025
Investors in the largest tech companies have voluntarily surrendered their governance rights, leaving founders with unchecked power.
investors at many tech companies, including most on the large cap list, have given up their corporate governance rights, often voluntarily (through the acceptance of shares with different voting rights), to founders and top management in these companies
Trillion Dollar Market Caps: Fairy Tale Pricing or Business Marvels? Said 3 Dec 2025
Beliefs others hold too
Nobody can yet know whether the current enthusiasm for AI is excessive, so anyone claiming conviction about how it resolves is overreaching. 2 hold this
anyone who claims to have conviction that they know what's coming is being either ignorant or arrogant
AI’s Bar Mitzvah Moment: From Hype & Hope to Business Questions! Said 20 Aug 2026
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Recommends rcmnd
rcmnd What they recommend 5 things — each backed by an exact quote.
Compiled by rcmnd.app, not by them: the quotes are theirs, and each links to the post it was copied from.
Recent
Recommends Applied Corporate Finance
Applied Corporate Finance (Wiley, 4th Ed): This is the book that is most closely tied to this class and represents my views of what should be in a corporate finance class most closely.
aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 11 Dec 2024
their own
Recommends Investment Philosophies
Investment Philosophies (Wiley, 2nd Ed): This is the best book for this class, and provides background and evidence for each investment philosophy, with a listing of the personal characteristics that you need to make that philosophy work for you.
aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 11 Dec 2024
their own
Loved Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
One of my favorite books is Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Markets, published in 1841, and it chronicles how market mistakes form and grow, using the South Sea Bubble and the Tulip Bulb Craze as illustrative examples.
aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 7 Nov 2024
What others say about Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds →
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Loved What Investors Really Want
Meir Statman, one of my favorite behavioral economists, has written a great book on how investors can overcome their base urges and make better decisions:
aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 1 Mar 2011
Loved Chaos
One of my favorite books on the topic of Chaos is by James Gleick. It is an easy read and well worth the time.
aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com 30 Nov 2010
Where they publish
Site Damodaran Online His free archive of valuation data, spreadsheets, class videos and books.
Link verified 4 Sept 2026.
Blog Musings on Markets Long-form posts on valuation, data updates and individual companies.
Open aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com
Link verified 4 Sept 2026.
x.com @AswathDamodaran Damodaran's X account.
Recent
- As companies have invested trillions into AI cap ex, driven by the hope of riches, it is not just markets that have been roiled. I look at how the spending has percolated through financial statements distorting book capital, earnings and cash flows. 8 Oct 2026
- On a trading day when interest rates are moving markets, I look at rising rates in 2026, hazard a guess as to why they are rising, and make a stab at explaining the resilience of equities in the face of rising rates, with nary a mention of the Fed. 10 Sept 2026 bit.ly
- I use this Vinod Khosla tweet with apologies to Vinod, since tweets are often out-of-context or emotive, to launch a discussion on the trade-off between scaling up and building business models (profitability) that every business faces. 2 Sept 2026
Show 17 more
- The spotlight was on US treasuries, in August 2026, as 10-year and 30-year rates edged towards highs not seen since 2008. US equities still had a good month, with the S&P up 2.6%, pushing the equity risk premium down to 4.09%. 1 Sept 2026
- It has been less than four years, since ChatGPT made its public debut, but talk of AI has taken over business, investing and even personal conversations. The AI debate, though, has gone off the tracks as people talk past each other and distractions about. My attempt to make sense of it all: 20 Aug 2026 bit.ly
- The meltdown of Situational Awareness, Leo Aschenbrenner's hedge fund, has created a host of takes. I use the story as a lever to talk about investment conviction, a quality that can be a good one, but one that can create collateral damage. 11 Aug 2026 bit.ly
- The S&P 500 was flat for the month and the 10-year treasury rose from 4.45% to 4.74%, as tech and AI came under selling pressure, and fears of war and a slowing economy resurfaced. The ERP for the index at the start of August 2026 stood at 4.23%, with expected return inching up to 8.97%. 1 Aug 2026 damodaran.com
- I spent the last academic year (Sept 25-June 26) on sabbatical, looking after my baby granddaughter, and I loved every moment. I missed teaching, though, and I will be back in the classroom in spring 2027. In the meantime, I will be on the road in Latin America, Europe and Asia in 2026. 28 Jul 2026 bit.ly
- My annual country risk update, which includes everything I know and have learned about country risk in my corporate finance analysis and valuation is now available to download: 15 Jul 2026 papers.ssrn.com
- The S&P 500 capped off a middling month in June 2026, but had a stunning 2nd quarter, up 14.87%. Rising earnings helped, and the equity risk premium for the index stood at 4.17% over the 10-year treasury rate. 2 Jul 2026
- As the debate about the pricing of SPaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic heats up, there is a parallel debate about whether S&P should be including these companies in the S&P 500 index, with many arguing against inclusion. My thoughts on the topic: 19 Jun 2026 bit.ly
- I valued SpaceX for its IPO a few weeks ago, with minimal information and a promise to revisit the valuation, when the prospectus was made public. The prospectus is public, the offering price has been set and my update is up and running. 4 Jun 2026 bit.ly
- US stocks continued to climb in May 2026, with the S&P 500 up 5.1% and treasury rates leveled off at 4.44% (up from 4.40%). The ERP for the index declined from 4.36% to 4.31%, as a surge in earnings partially offset higher stock prices. 1 Jun 2026
- Tim Cook will be stepping down as CEO of Apple on Sept 1, 2026, after fifteen years atop the company. He has been critiqued for being too cautious, but I celebrate his restraint in my post on his tenure. 7 May 2026 bit.ly
- In April 2026, US equities saw light in the midst of war and chaos. The S&P 500 rose 10.43%, its best month since April 2020, coming of COVID lows, and the ERP for the index dropped to 4.37%. The market was right then in being upbeat about the future. Is it right again? 2 May 2026 damodaran.com
- The SpaceX IPO is coming, and it will be a doozy, a futuristic company (spaceships, satellites and AI), a founder who will keep things interesting (Musk) and a price tag that may make it the most highly priced IPO of all time. 24 Apr 2026 bit.ly
- Beware the ides of March? That was true in 2026 as the month started with war, with questions about how long and to what end, and ended with war, and the same questions. Oil prices were up, stock prices were down, but the market was remarkably well-behaved. 2 Apr 2026 bit.ly
- Winning is rare for active investors (retail or institutional), and even with the few who win consistently, separating luck from skill is tough to do, and there are broad differences in market views and investing approaches. 24 Mar 2026
- Winning as an active investor is rare, and even with the few who win consistently, separating luck from skill is tough to do, and there are broad differences in market views and investing approaches. 24 Mar 2026
- The equity risk premium (ERP) is an essential ingredient in hurdle rates in corporate finance, discount rates in valuation and expected returns in financial planning. In 2009, I pulled together everything I know about the ERP, in a paper that I have updated every year since. My 2026 update is now available to download and it is written for practitioners. 16 Mar 2026 papers.ssrn.com
Link verified 4 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
YouTube Aswath Damodaran on YouTube His full valuation and corporate finance class recordings, posted free.
Recent
Link verified 4 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
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