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Designer, product manager, YouTuber and developer who has written about technology at Birchtree since 2010. He makes the Quick Reviews and Quick Notes apps and the A Better Computer YouTube channel.

• Resident Evil movie is widely adored and makes an ass-ton of money

  Michael Cripe: Resident Evil Defies Expectations as Zach Cregger Adaptation Collects $108 Million Globally After First Weekend in Theaters It's a franchise-best opening for the horror-comedy hybrid that saw it bring in…

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Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.

• Long-term Treasuries now have a negative total return going back to the start of 2015 It's more than a lost decade for long bonds (and even worse after inflation)

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• This year: Mortgage rates have gone from 6% to 7% 10 year Treasury yields: 4% to 5%. Inflation: 2.4% to 3.4%. Oil prices from less than $60/barrel in Jan to >$100/barrel And the stock market is up double digits but valuations are falling Why?

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Co-founder, chairman and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Hosts the Masters in Business podcast for Bloomberg and wrote How NOT to Invest.

• 10 Friday AM Reads

  My back in NY morning reads: ​• Why Are Valuations Falling in a Bull Market?: Ben Carlson runs the year’s tape — mortgages from 6% to 7%, the 10-year from 4% to 5%, inflation from 2.4% to 3.4%, oil from under $60 to ove…

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Co-founder, chairman and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Hosts the Masters in Business podcast for Bloomberg and wrote How NOT to Invest.

• 10 Thursday AM Reads

  My morning reads: • Here’s Who Trump Should Blame for the Rate Hike He’s Raging About:He promised lower prices and lower interest rates. His policies delivered renewed inflation and a rate hike. (The Bulwark) • Gas Pric…

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Author of Shape Up; formerly head of strategy at Basecamp, where he worked on product design for seventeen years; now runs Felt Presence.

• Here's one of the many little ways that AI is changing expectations about UI. I'm building this thing I want for teams I manage to more clearly define review points. (A bit like Shopify's phase transitions in their GSD system). I have a handful of tasks that should be checked in a review. It used to be normal practice that any list in a UI needs a title. Eg "List" or "Untitled" etc. But this was always a drag, right? Naming a list just to have a group of things is extra work. But without a name it's hard to scan and find and all lists look the same. Now AI can generate titles for anything. Li…

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Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.

• Why Are Valuations Falling in a Bull Market?

  Rising rates, higher inflation and falling PE ratios.

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Writer of Lenny's Newsletter and host of Lenny's Podcast, covering product, growth and career in tech. Previously a product lead at Airbnb. Also an angel investor and advisor.

• Growth tactic #13: "🎈Go anti-professional: One of the most viral LinkedIn posts of all time came from a manager who swapped her corporate headshot for a casual, no-makeup photo. Pick a norm of your own and break it in public. You might talk about how much roles actually pay or admit that a big launch didn’t actually meet internal expectations. People are tired of perfectly curated, glossy exteriors of the professional world, so a bit of human messiness will stand out." More here:

  lennysnewsletter.com

  Quoting@lennysan60+ creative growth ideas Everyone's running the same growth playbook: high-production launch videos, paid influencers, AEO, social, maybe some (poorly attended) events. Your competitors are in the same channels competing for the same eyeballs. But attention goes to what people don't see coming. Th…

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Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

• Let me stay away from personal remarks. As you kindly invited me to do so, I am happy to continue our exchange. Let me start by reproducing and then commenting on three remarks you make in your two recent tweets. “I know full well what justified the use of OATi in 1998, namely a lower interest rate since the investor takes on less risk. Except that today, with the international context and climate disruption making prices more volatile, the cost of these indexed bonds is rising.” My humble view: More volatile inflation makes inflation protected bonds more, not less attractive. “As such, I sta…
  Quoting@ericcoquerelPas de souci pour échanger des arguments avec vous @ojblanchard1 mais un tout petit peu moins de condescendance dans l’échange ne serait pas de trop 🔽. Le résultat des politiques économiques que vous avez soutenues depuis des années devrait, je pense, vous amener à un peu plus d’humilité. Je sais…

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Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

• i was going to write something, but Quentin beat me to it... Let me put it another way, so that Chairman Coquerel @ericcoquerel understands and corrects his statement. When a state issues nominal bonds (bonds that pay in euros), the real value of interest payments varies with inflation, creating risk for investors. So they require a higher interest rate to compensate for the risk. In issuing inflation protected bonds, the state eliminates the risk and thus is able to get a lower rate. This decreases the burden of the debt. This is good. Always happy to help the Chair of the Finance Committee…
  Quoting@QuentinVandewe2Est-ce que LFI organise un concours Lépine pour la théorie du complot la plus idiote sur la dette ? Après la Banque de France qui revendrait la dette en secret, Mélenchon découvre que l'État « vient de proposer de nouveau des titres indexés sur le capital et des intérêts compensant l'inflation ». U…

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British open-standards and open-source technologist, formerly of the UK Government Digital Service and the W3C Advisory Committee. Blogs at shkspr.mobi, where he posts a book review most weeks.

• The expectations of privacy in driverless cars

  Do riders in autonomous vehicles think that they are in a private space? Here's a fascinating story from California where an robotaxi was redirected from its intended destination and, instead, delivered its misbehaving…

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Co-founder and chief investment officer of Cambria Investment Management. He has written several books on quantitative asset allocation, blogs at Meb Faber Research and hosts The Meb Faber Show.

• 𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗡𝗮𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗲𝗼𝗻, 𝘁𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽 𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗸. 𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘁. My guest today is Robin Wigglesworth (@RobinWigg), editor of @FTAlphaville and author of A Fabulous Debt, a thousand-year history of the market that sets the price of everything else. We get into: • An Austrian 100 year bond that lost 80%, while a defaulting Argentina paid off better • Why T-bills feel safe but can lose you 50%+ in real terms after inflation • Is private credit the next systemic blowup? • Why the $12 trillion repo mar…

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Investing columnist for The Wall Street Journal and editor of the revised edition of Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor.

• My latest @WSJ column: Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, can help investors in or near retirement to protect their nest egg

  wsj.com

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Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.

• I know everyone hates bonds right now b/c inflation, govt debt, etc But if you own a bond index fund that tracks the Agg you're getting 5.2% avg yield to maturity right now Investors would have killed for yields this high at any point in the past 15 years or so

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Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.

• We now have: 7% mortgage rates 5% bond yields 3.5% inflation A roaring stock bull market A transformational tech innovation boom Good movies Angst among the younger generation This really is the 1990s all over again

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Essayist, journalist and independent researcher on Chinese politics, strategy and cultural history; author of the blog The Scholar's Stage.

• Those who work in the AI labs are vastly underestimating the likelihood that AI development in the United States can be slowed, damaged, or outright strangled by political forces outside their control.
  Quoting@Scholars_StageAI safety concerns have now crossed a threshold. Quite suddenly, this is something normal politicos across the country not only care about, but feel emboldened to act on. Let me offer three predictions for what this means.

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Economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury. Author of Slouching Towards Utopia and writer of the Grasping Reality newsletter.

• Interest Rate-Hike Expectations: CHART OF THE DAY

  Expected short-term interest rates in 2028 are one percentage-point higher than they would have been otherwise because of Trump’s war on Iran. Is that a big shift or a small one?

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Essayist, journalist and independent researcher on Chinese politics, strategy and cultural history; author of the blog The Scholar's Stage.

• It is fine to repeat your words. In fact, it is fine to repeat words not only “in the same section,” but in the very next sentence. Successful rhetoric is a story of variation—but that does not mean you should vary constantly. Constant variance is simply noise; a distinctive voice is made less, not more distinctive by background static. The goal is to set expectations, then break them. Long sentences are broken by short ones. Latinate terms are broken by Saxon ones. You repeat a cadence, or a figure, or a word—and then you break the pattern you have set. This keeps readers interested. It also…
  Quoting@tomieinloveThere's a soft rule in English prose: you shouldn't repeat the same word in a section. This is difficult, because often the same word—whoops—thing does many things—whoops—actions in the same section—whoops—sequence. So you have use like 12 different synonyms

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Economist; Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at MIT Sloan, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, and co-author of 13 Bankers and Power and Progress.

• What is the Bond Market Saying? https://t.co/4U5yklL8mh via @YouTube it is telling the Fed to raise short-term interest rates, to bring inflation down… but the White House has a different (and entirely wrong) theory of the case

  inflationinterest ratesRelated

• Does the Fed Have Inflation Under Control? - Power and Consequences Epis... https://t.co/XFIu9fefNJ via @YouTube Don’t expect the Fed to raise short-term rates in September. The bond market on the other hand…

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Economist at the Hoover Institution; wrote The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and blogs as The Grumpy Economist.

• More on lower rates

  This follows up my last post on lowering rates to lower inflation.

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Co-founder, chairman and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Hosts the Masters in Business podcast for Bloomberg and wrote How NOT to Invest.

• Nobody Knows Anything, Rate Expectations Edition

  dlvr.it

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Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.

• Some questions: Would inflation be even worse if we weren’t in a housing recession? Are private markets the perfect place to hide fraud? Are colleges screwed? Is NVDA the anti-bubble? How important is the wealth effect to the economy?

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Economist; writes In My Tribe, and wrote The Three Languages of Politics.

• Economics Links, 9/3/2026

  The WSJ on mortgage defaults; A committee to advise the Fed on inflation; Andreas Steno Larsen on the rickety market for long-term U.S. bonds; Gad Levanon on unemployment among young college grads

  AI and jobsinflationRelated

British designer and technologist; co-founder of the design studio BERG, which made Little Printer, and writer of the blog Interconnected.

• llm naming inflation is out of control. Astra and Mythos pretty much maxing out in terms of scale, I mean where do you go from there

  LLMsinflationRelated

Self-taught home cook and food writer who has run the Smitten Kitchen recipe site since 2006; author of four cookbooks.

• peach cobbler loaf

  A friend asked me last week how long it takes to get a recipe right. I told him the only answer I know: As long as it takes. I’d like to be someone who could “adjust my expectations,” make peace with “close enough,” or…

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Monetary economist known for NGDP-level targeting. Wrote TheMoneyIllusion until it closed in 2024 and now writes The Pursuit of Happiness.

• Basil Halperin on sticky wage models

  Why wage inflation is what matters

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Writer of the personal-finance blog Of Dollars And Data and author of Just Keep Buying and The Wealth Ladder. Chief Operating Officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

• x.comWhat if I told you that $100 at 25 is worth $500 at 65 even AFTER we adjust for inflation? My latest on why your money is worth a lot more when you're young:

  ofdollarsanddata.com

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• BlogWhy $100 in Your 20s is Worth $500 in Your 60s

  What if I told you that $100 at 25 is worth $500 at 65, even after we adjust for inflation? Well...it is. There's an unspoken belief in personal finance that a dollar is always worth a dollar (putting inflation aside).…

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Economist at the Hoover Institution; wrote The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and blogs as The Grumpy Economist.

• Raise rates? Warsh's conundrums

  Inflation is stubbornly high, and the Fed mulls whether to raise rates.

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Monetary economist known for NGDP-level targeting. Wrote TheMoneyIllusion until it closed in 2024 and now writes The Pursuit of Happiness.

• Thoughts on inflation and monetary policy

  Be careful what you ask for

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Demographer; writes on fertility, marriage and population, and directs the Pro-Family Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies.

• Two Reasons Why Daycare Isn't the Answer to Low Fertility

  Time is the ultimate limit, and expectations reset on social structures.

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Founder and editor-in-chief of MacStories, writing about Apple software, iPad workflows and automation since 2009. He co-hosts the AppStories podcast.

• Open Minis Is the iOS Agent I Wish Siri AI Could Be

  Open Minis for iOS. Every once in a while, I come across a third-party app that either resets my expectations for a particular niche of software on iOS or creates an entirely new category altogether. I’ve had quite a fe…

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Pseudonymous writer; posts careful, funny investigations of everyday questions — air quality, seed oils, arguing, chess — usually by reading the studies.

• Life with hazard ratios

  How to discount your expectations

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Economist at the Hoover Institution; wrote The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and blogs as The Grumpy Economist.

• Sluggish expectations

  As part of a big revision of “Inflation”, a short book resulting from last year’s Brunner lecture, I wrote the following short section.

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Economist; Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, and Chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017.

• This is the cut of the data that had people especially worried about inflation after this week's PCE infaltion release.

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Economist; Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, and Chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017.

• PCE-based ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 3.5% in May. As most metrics are highly elevated.

  inflationRelated

• PCE inflation came in high. And the details were even more worrying than the headline as the risk of inflation mounting outside the tariff/Iran affected sectors. Core PCE annual rate: 1 month: 3.9% 3 months: 3.5% 6 months: 4.1% 12 months: 3.4%

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Economist at the Hoover Institution; wrote The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and blogs as The Grumpy Economist.

• Shock Accounting.

  The lab-leak shock really caused inflation

  inflationRelated

Economist at the Hoover Institution; wrote The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and blogs as The Grumpy Economist.

• Supply Shocks and Nominal Anchors

  Updating “Inflation,” I took “supply” and “demand” shocks more seriously, in a FTPL framework.

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Economist; Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, and Chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017.

• Looking at today's headlines on inflation I want to re-up this. Is a peculiarity that 100% of the jobs focus is 1-month while majority of inflation focus is 12-months. If May-25 jobs was 400K & May-26 was 300K the 12-month number would go down but no headline or even line in the article would be "job growth stalled in May".
  Quoting@jasonfurmanI mostly avoid media criticism because the reporters that write these stories 100% understand all the issues I'm raising and are consistent over time. But I wish the editorial choices would move away from a focus on 12-month changes, reversing headlines and subheads.

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Climate scientist and energy systems analyst; writes The Climate Brink with Andrew Dessler and leads climate research at Stripe.

• Plateauing CO2 emissions have slowed atmospheric growth

  CO2 concentrations have continued to increase – but more slowly than it otherwise would have

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Writes Stratechery, a subscription newsletter on the business and strategy of technology, and hosts the Dithering and Sharp Tech podcasts.

• I’m gonna delete this thread because I think people complaining about airlines on Twitter are pretty lame, including myself! That said, I think the takeaway is that the reason I was upset is precisely because of dashed expectations. If this were American I would have shrugged my shoulders. So I guess that’s a compliment to United, but also a reminder that it’s risky to advertise things (like Starlink) when you can’t yet confidently deliver on them. Anyhow, 28B on Southwest. Let’s go! 😅

  AmericaRelated

Programmer and writer on computer architecture, performance, and software reliability. He has worked on CPU design at Centaur Technology and on software at Google and Microsoft, and writes long-form technical essays at danluu.com.

• In 10 years, will at least one of {Anthropic, OpenAI} be a public company valued at >= $1T in May 2026 dollars after adjusting for S&P 500 valuations (analogous to inflation adjustment, but using S&P 500 instead of CPI)?

  inflationAnthropicRelated

President of the United States, the 45th from 2017 to 2021 and, as of 2026, the 47th; before politics a New York property developer who ran the Trump Organization, and the host of The Apprentice from 2004 to 2015.

• Merry Christmas to all, including the Radical Left Scum that is doing everything possible to destroy our Country, but are failing badly. We no longer have Open Borders, Men in Women’s Sports, Transgender for Everyone, or Weak Law Enforcement. What we do have is a Record Stock Market and 401K’s, Lowest Crime numbers in decades, No Inflation, and yesterday, a 4.3 GDP, two points better than expected. Tariffs have given us Trillions of Dollars in Growth and Prosperity, and the strongest National Security we have ever had. We are respected again, perhaps like never before. God Bless America!!! Pr…

  inflationAmericaRelated

Roboticist; co-founded iRobot and Rethink Robotics, directed the MIT AI Lab, and publishes a scorecard grading his own dated predictions about AI, robots and self-driving.

• AI: great expectations

  This time around I decided on a guest column. The guest is a 37 years ago younger me, and this post is one that I wrote for Manufacturing Engineering in March of 1988. It was for the last page of the trade magazine, in…

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Software engineer and writer; former CTO of Wave, now at Anthropic. Blogs at benkuhn.net on attention, engineering management and doing hard things well.

• Advice for time management as a manager

  have accurate expectations of yourself • prioritize ruthlessly • unemploy your future self • a five-step “help, I’m overwhelmed” checklist • carve out focused time

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Founder of the toy manufacturer Viahart; writes about manufacturing, importing and why bringing production back to America is harder than it sounds.

• Amazon’s Pricing Policies Promote Inflation

  The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when 20 states joined the US Department of Justice to sue Microsoft. These cases revolve around whether consumers are harme…

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Economist; Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, and Chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017.

• Why Did (Almost) No One See the Inflation Coming?

  To understand the possible trajectory of inflation in 2022 and beyond, it is helpful to understand why the United States and Europe had so much inflation in 2021.

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