Related posts

Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.

• Long-term Treasuries now have a negative total return going back to the start of 2015 It's more than a lost decade for long bonds (and even worse after inflation)

  inflationRelated

• This year: Mortgage rates have gone from 6% to 7% 10 year Treasury yields: 4% to 5%. Inflation: 2.4% to 3.4%. Oil prices from less than $60/barrel in Jan to >$100/barrel And the stock market is up double digits but valuations are falling Why?

  inflationRelated

Co-founder, chairman and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Hosts the Masters in Business podcast for Bloomberg and wrote How NOT to Invest.

• 10 Friday AM Reads

  My back in NY morning reads: ​• Why Are Valuations Falling in a Bull Market?: Ben Carlson runs the year’s tape — mortgages from 6% to 7%, the 10-year from 4% to 5%, inflation from 2.4% to 3.4%, oil from under $60 to ove…

  inflationRelated

Co-founder, chairman and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Hosts the Masters in Business podcast for Bloomberg and wrote How NOT to Invest.

• 10 Thursday AM Reads

  My morning reads: • Here’s Who Trump Should Blame for the Rate Hike He’s Raging About:He promised lower prices and lower interest rates. His policies delivered renewed inflation and a rate hike. (The Bulwark) • Gas Pric…

  inflationinterest ratesRelated

Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.

• Why Are Valuations Falling in a Bull Market?

  Rising rates, higher inflation and falling PE ratios.

  inflationRelated

Researcher of social media, privacy and youth culture; founder of Data & Society and author of It’s Complicated.

• Experts from academia and civil society regularly work for govt agencies for short periods to help them succeed. But Trump2 went further, installing partisan operatives to conduct projects to venerate the president. They're undermining the legitimacy of the agencies.

  wired.com

  Related

Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

• Let me stay away from personal remarks. As you kindly invited me to do so, I am happy to continue our exchange. Let me start by reproducing and then commenting on three remarks you make in your two recent tweets. “I know full well what justified the use of OATi in 1998, namely a lower interest rate since the investor takes on less risk. Except that today, with the international context and climate disruption making prices more volatile, the cost of these indexed bonds is rising.” My humble view: More volatile inflation makes inflation protected bonds more, not less attractive. “As such, I sta…
  Quoting@ericcoquerelPas de souci pour échanger des arguments avec vous @ojblanchard1 mais un tout petit peu moins de condescendance dans l’échange ne serait pas de trop 🔽. Le résultat des politiques économiques que vous avez soutenues depuis des années devrait, je pense, vous amener à un peu plus d’humilité. Je sais…

  inflationinterest ratesRelated

Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

• i was going to write something, but Quentin beat me to it... Let me put it another way, so that Chairman Coquerel @ericcoquerel understands and corrects his statement. When a state issues nominal bonds (bonds that pay in euros), the real value of interest payments varies with inflation, creating risk for investors. So they require a higher interest rate to compensate for the risk. In issuing inflation protected bonds, the state eliminates the risk and thus is able to get a lower rate. This decreases the burden of the debt. This is good. Always happy to help the Chair of the Finance Committee…
  Quoting@QuentinVandewe2Est-ce que LFI organise un concours Lépine pour la théorie du complot la plus idiote sur la dette ? Après la Banque de France qui revendrait la dette en secret, Mélenchon découvre que l'État « vient de proposer de nouveau des titres indexés sur le capital et des intérêts compensant l'inflation ». U…

  inflationinterest ratesRelated

Co-founder of Modem and a founding engineer at Sentry, where he went on to be VP of Engineering. Co-author of Third-party JavaScript, and co-host of the State of Agentic Coding podcast with Armin Ronacher.

• “the US must beat China to control AI for global safety” is deeply unconvincing abroad: - US models are the ones being caught doing bad things - the US govt has once already cut off foreign access to models - they also regularly threaten to annex and punitively tariff allies
  Quoting@mitsuhikoThis is the type of post I might regret later, but I really had an urge to rant about the current discourse around pacing the frontier.

  ChinaRelated

Co-founder and chief investment officer of Cambria Investment Management. He has written several books on quantitative asset allocation, blogs at Meb Faber Research and hosts The Meb Faber Show.

• 𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗡𝗮𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗲𝗼𝗻, 𝘁𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽 𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗸. 𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘁. My guest today is Robin Wigglesworth (@RobinWigg), editor of @FTAlphaville and author of A Fabulous Debt, a thousand-year history of the market that sets the price of everything else. We get into: • An Austrian 100 year bond that lost 80%, while a defaulting Argentina paid off better • Why T-bills feel safe but can lose you 50%+ in real terms after inflation • Is private credit the next systemic blowup? • Why the $12 trillion repo mar…

  inflationRelated

Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

• Good question, even if framed too aggressively. But the answer is no. During QE, given the zero lower bound that prevented further decreases in policy rates, the ECB bought long maturity national bonds, including those of France, so as to decrease long-term interest rates and help countries, including France. Now, as we are away from the lower bound, there are few reasons to keep as many of them. As these are sold (or not rolled over at maturity) through QT, this indeed likely increases long rates a bit and makes it harder for France to adjust. If selling these bonds turns out to be strongly…
  Quoting@RobianoAntoineLe raisonnement paraît juste mais - L'annulation de la dette détenue retirerait à la BCE l'une de ces nombreuses sources de pouvoir exorbitant, celui de revendre des titres de dette publique d'un Etat pour contraindre politiquement ce dernier ?

  interest ratesRelated

Investing columnist for The Wall Street Journal and editor of the revised edition of Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor.

• My latest @WSJ column: Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, can help investors in or near retirement to protect their nest egg

  wsj.com

  inflationRelated

Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.

• We now have: 7% mortgage rates 5% bond yields 3.5% inflation A roaring stock bull market A transformational tech innovation boom Good movies Angst among the younger generation This really is the 1990s all over again

  inflationRelated

Economist; Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at MIT Sloan, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, and co-author of 13 Bankers and Power and Progress.

• What is the Bond Market Saying? https://t.co/4U5yklL8mh via @YouTube it is telling the Fed to raise short-term interest rates, to bring inflation down… but the White House has a different (and entirely wrong) theory of the case

  inflationinterest ratesRelated

• Does the Fed Have Inflation Under Control? - Power and Consequences Epis... https://t.co/XFIu9fefNJ via @YouTube Don’t expect the Fed to raise short-term rates in September. The bond market on the other hand…

  inflationinterest ratesRelated

Economist at the Hoover Institution; wrote The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and blogs as The Grumpy Economist.

• More on lower rates

  This follows up my last post on lowering rates to lower inflation.

  inflationRelated

Director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Writes the A Wealth of Common Sense blog and co-hosts the Animal Spirits podcast with Michael Batnick.

• Some questions: Would inflation be even worse if we weren’t in a housing recession? Are private markets the perfect place to hide fraud? Are colleges screwed? Is NVDA the anti-bubble? How important is the wealth effect to the economy?

  inflationRelated

Economist; writes In My Tribe, and wrote The Three Languages of Politics.

• Economics Links, 9/3/2026

  The WSJ on mortgage defaults; A committee to advise the Fed on inflation; Andreas Steno Larsen on the rickety market for long-term U.S. bonds; Gad Levanon on unemployment among young college grads

  AI and jobsinflationRelated

British designer and technologist; co-founder of the design studio BERG, which made Little Printer, and writer of the blog Interconnected.

• llm naming inflation is out of control. Astra and Mythos pretty much maxing out in terms of scale, I mean where do you go from there

  LLMsinflationRelated

Founder and former CEO of Zynga, the social-games company behind FarmVille, Zynga Poker and Words with Friends; says he founded ten companies in all, and wrote Life at the Speed of Play.

• Hallelujah!! Cuban’s Ro argument was painful legitimizing of a corrupt socialist policy. Govt seizure isnt ever ok.
  Quoting@theobjectivistThis so-called defense of the founders by Cuban is worse than Ro Khanna's direct assault, because it is the assault's enabler, as their exchange below illustrates. Watch the sequence. Mark's first reply argued only mechanics. The founders are cash poor, the banks will not lend, capital will flee. N…

  Related

Monetary economist known for NGDP-level targeting. Wrote TheMoneyIllusion until it closed in 2024 and now writes The Pursuit of Happiness.

• Basil Halperin on sticky wage models

  Why wage inflation is what matters

  inflationRelated

Economics professor at George Mason University and author of The Myth of the Rational Voter, Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids, The Case Against Education and Open Borders. Writes Bet On It.

• I Stopped Being a Libertarian Because I Realized the Sky is Blue

  When a thinker publicly changes his mind on major questions, neutral observers normally interpret it as a sign of courage and maturity. Almost no one enjoys admitting they were wrong — and “I changed my mind” is tantamo…

  Related

Writer of the personal-finance blog Of Dollars And Data and author of Just Keep Buying and The Wealth Ladder. Chief Operating Officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

• x.comWhat if I told you that $100 at 25 is worth $500 at 65 even AFTER we adjust for inflation? My latest on why your money is worth a lot more when you're young:

  ofdollarsanddata.com

  inflationRelated

• BlogWhy $100 in Your 20s is Worth $500 in Your 60s

  What if I told you that $100 at 25 is worth $500 at 65, even after we adjust for inflation? Well...it is. There's an unspoken belief in personal finance that a dollar is always worth a dollar (putting inflation aside).…

  inflationRelated

Economist at the Hoover Institution; wrote The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and blogs as The Grumpy Economist.

• Raise rates? Warsh's conundrums

  Inflation is stubbornly high, and the Fed mulls whether to raise rates.

  inflationinterest ratesRelated

Monetary economist known for NGDP-level targeting. Wrote TheMoneyIllusion until it closed in 2024 and now writes The Pursuit of Happiness.

• Thoughts on inflation and monetary policy

  Be careful what you ask for

  inflationRelated

Economist at George Mason University. Writes Overcoming Bias on prediction markets, signalling and the far future, and wrote The Age of Em and The Elephant in the Brain.

• Our Likely Future Filter: World Govt

  The great filter (a term I coined) is all the things that block simple dead matter from evolving into an advanced civilization easily seen from far away.

  Related

British designer and technologist; co-founder of the design studio BERG, which made Little Printer, and writer of the blog Interconnected.

• I need a macroeconomist to explain this to me: I don't get why the govt council house building programme is a "cost" that needs to be budgeted for cash is converted into an asset: housing. it's moving numbers around on the balance sheet. the govt still has the asset, can still borrow against it

  Related

British designer and technologist; co-founder of the design studio BERG, which made Little Printer, and writer of the blog Interconnected.

• Pleased that UK govt has scrapped the single digital ID scheme. IMO: illiberal and a single point of failure Instead: create a wallet of the various IDs we use — council tax per household, road tax per car, NHS per patient The only place they should connect is my private phone

  Related

Economist at the Hoover Institution; wrote The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and blogs as The Grumpy Economist.

• Sluggish expectations

  As part of a big revision of “Inflation”, a short book resulting from last year’s Brunner lecture, I wrote the following short section.

  inflationRelated

Economist; Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, and Chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017.

• This is the cut of the data that had people especially worried about inflation after this week's PCE infaltion release.

  inflationRelated

Economist; Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, and Chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017.

• PCE-based ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 3.5% in May. As most metrics are highly elevated.

  inflationRelated

• PCE inflation came in high. And the details were even more worrying than the headline as the risk of inflation mounting outside the tariff/Iran affected sectors. Core PCE annual rate: 1 month: 3.9% 3 months: 3.5% 6 months: 4.1% 12 months: 3.4%

  inflationRelated

Economist at the Hoover Institution; wrote The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and blogs as The Grumpy Economist.

• Shock Accounting.

  The lab-leak shock really caused inflation

  inflationRelated

Economist at the Hoover Institution; wrote The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and blogs as The Grumpy Economist.

• Supply Shocks and Nominal Anchors

  Updating “Inflation,” I took “supply” and “demand” shocks more seriously, in a FTPL framework.

  inflationRelated

Economist; Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, and Chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017.

• Looking at today's headlines on inflation I want to re-up this. Is a peculiarity that 100% of the jobs focus is 1-month while majority of inflation focus is 12-months. If May-25 jobs was 400K & May-26 was 300K the 12-month number would go down but no headline or even line in the article would be "job growth stalled in May".
  Quoting@jasonfurmanI mostly avoid media criticism because the reporters that write these stories 100% understand all the issues I'm raising and are consistent over time. But I wish the editorial choices would move away from a focus on 12-month changes, reversing headlines and subheads.

  inflationRelated

• Three things about today's inflation report: 1. 12-month inflation increased (because May-26 > May-25) 2. 1-month inflation slowed (because May-26 < Apr-26) 3. Inflation came in below expectations. Here is core.

  inflationRelated

Programmer and writer on computer architecture, performance, and software reliability. He has worked on CPU design at Centaur Technology and on software at Google and Microsoft, and writes long-form technical essays at danluu.com.

• In 10 years, will at least one of {Anthropic, OpenAI} be a public company valued at >= $1T in May 2026 dollars after adjusting for S&P 500 valuations (analogous to inflation adjustment, but using S&P 500 instead of CPI)?

  inflationAnthropicRelated

President of the United States, the 45th from 2017 to 2021 and, as of 2026, the 47th; before politics a New York property developer who ran the Trump Organization, and the host of The Apprentice from 2004 to 2015.

• Merry Christmas to all, including the Radical Left Scum that is doing everything possible to destroy our Country, but are failing badly. We no longer have Open Borders, Men in Women’s Sports, Transgender for Everyone, or Weak Law Enforcement. What we do have is a Record Stock Market and 401K’s, Lowest Crime numbers in decades, No Inflation, and yesterday, a 4.3 GDP, two points better than expected. Tariffs have given us Trillions of Dollars in Growth and Prosperity, and the strongest National Security we have ever had. We are respected again, perhaps like never before. God Bless America!!! Pr…

  inflationAmericaRelated

Founder of the toy manufacturer Viahart; writes about manufacturing, importing and why bringing production back to America is harder than it sounds.

• Amazon’s Pricing Policies Promote Inflation

  The state of California has sued Amazon in what may be the biggest antitrust case for 25 years, when 20 states joined the US Department of Justice to sue Microsoft. These cases revolve around whether consumers are harme…

  inflationRelated

Economist; Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, and Chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017.

• Why Did (Almost) No One See the Inflation Coming?

  To understand the possible trajectory of inflation in 2022 and beyond, it is helpful to understand why the United States and Europe had so much inflation in 2021.

  inflationEuropeRelated