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19 September
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korrents.com
Banks cannot globalize like software companies because banking is tightly bound to national monetary sovereignty.Their words
banks can't globalize the way other firms can because the banking system is so close to a form of sovereignty: governments very carefully guard the privilege to create more money, and when they give it out, there are strings attached.
18 September
17 September
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Their words
The current problem with prices might be one part AI construction boom, but it is one part Trump's tariffs and one part Trump's war in Iran as well.
16 September
14 September
13 September
12 September
11 September
10 September
9 September
7 September
4 September
3 September
2 September
31 August
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korrents.com
Even well-informed AI insiders frequently develop something like "AI psychosis" from engaging with these ideas.Their words
Though be very, very careful when speaking with others, whether it be the less informed public or the more informed insiders who often come down with AI psychosis.
24 August
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Their words
But I also think that this is not mutually incompatible with the view that there's also overdiagnosis. And I think we need very careful ways of making diagnosis because the conventional way is you take a history from a person about what the problem is.
21 August
16 August
14 August
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korrents.com
The pace at which dangerous AI capabilities spread is set by the least cautious developer, not the most careful one.Their words
The capability diffusion is determined by the lowest common denominator.
10 August
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Their words
So this speaks of a very important fact that um AI learns from patterns. When the patterns are not abundant, then we have to be careful. We have to know how to use AI or how not to use AI.
7 August
4 August
3 August
1 August
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korrents.com
China's real exchange rate should appreciate through higher domestic inflation, not currency revaluation.Their words
My view is that an appreciation of China's REER is very much to be desired, but the real (haha) way to get there is through higher inflation domestically, and that means different macro policies.
10 July
7 July
30 June
28 June
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Their words
But now with Claude Code on my VPS in the last year, it just live edits on my production server, which sounds like it should go wrong but it just doesn't, it's very careful and only twice in 12 months messed up which meant my site didn't load for 10 seconds which is OK
25 June
21 June
10 June
3 June
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Their words
But the thing I was careful not to do was to change the lifestyle because I I watched people around me change the lifestyle so you can make a lot of money and still be broke.
29 May
15 May
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korrents.com
The Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates rather than cut them to bring down inflation.Their words
I will be surprised if there are any votes for rate cuts, even from Warsh himself. The Fed may need to hike rates this year to tame inflation.
23 April
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Their words
Construction costs tend to rise at, or above, the level of overall inflation, and it rarely (if ever) gets cheaper to build houses, offices, or other buildings.
1 April
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Their words
we have a very clear definition and expectation of what it is at the staff engineer level because we benchmark ourselves to all the great company out there Google, Facebook and all that
28 March
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Their words
The LLMs may elicit an opinion when asked but are extremely competent in arguing almost any direction. This is actually super useful as a tool for forming your own opinions, just make sure to ask different directions and be careful with the sycophancy.
20 March
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Their words
So, I think AI-type tools we really will will actually revolutionize the ex- the experimental side of math where where um you don't care so much about uh individual problems and and the process of solving them, but you you want to gather just large-scale data about about what things work, what things don't.
11 March
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Their words
There were booms and busts, and cumulative price inflation was zero, and the United States went from a new-world emerging backwater in the late 1700s to being the world's largest economy by the late 1800s.
9 March
4 February
18 January
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korrents.com
Careful step-by-step thinking is a property of the developer, not something a tool or framework can enforceTheir words
Notebooks don't force you to write clean code. AI tools don't force you to think carefully. Discipline comes from the developer, not the environment.
25 December 2025
16 December 2025
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Likedrcmnd.app
The Wide Wide SeaTheir words
The causes and meaning of those events have been debated ever since, and Sides delivers a careful, sympathetic and engaging account of the entirety of Cook's final expedition.
1 December 2025
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Their words
Utility protocols face heavy competition, and thus their value trends toward their marginal cost of operation.
10 October 2025
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inflationdata centersenergyAmerica
Their words
This is the first conclusion of my deep dive: Data centers have (so far) not affected national average household electricity bills.
29 July 2025
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korrents.com
Industrial policy that grows a poor country’s economy does not automatically reduce its poverty.Their words
But, peering past the hype around Morowali reminds us that we should be careful before assuming that industrial policy must be pro-poor.
6 July 2025
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Their words
If a new monetary network with its own unit (i.e. not pegged to an existing currency as a credit rail on top of it, but rather a fully parallel system to central banks) is going to bootstrap from zero to massive, it requires upward volatility.
20 June 2025
19 February 2025
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Their words
Since signaling, not building human capital, is the main function of education, the main effect of government subsidies is credential inflation.
20 January 2025
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korrents.com
The inflation of the early 2020s was caused by government overspending and rising energy prices.Their words
The inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices, and that is why today I will also declare a national energy emergency.
19 January 2025
From one piece Jennifer Burns: Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, Economics, Capitalism, Freedom | Lex Fridman Podcast #457 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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inflationimmigrationgovernment
Their words
And so my argument is, that has now opened the door to the presidency of Donald Trump, which is potentially a deeply transformative moment that will change the size and shape of government, that may change our foreign policy profoundly, that may change our immigration policy, that may change the demographics of our country, all of that, and my thesis is that that's all been made possible by inflation.
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Their words
And so the great mistake of the past years was to forget how fundamental inflation was to the rise of the last political order and to profoundly underestimate how much inflation would change the current political order.
8 January 2025
From one piece Full Steam Ahead: All Aboard Fiscal Dominance 2 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
Since inflation is not primarily driven by private-sector lending in the current environment, making borrowing more expensive will not significantly cool the economy.
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Their words
Structural fiscal deficits have surpassed private sector lending and monetary policy as the primary drivers of economic activity and inflation, marking a fundamental shift in the economy's liquidity dynamics.
29 December 2024
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Their words
We ought to be especially careful in the cases where what we delegate to a device, app, agent, or system is an aspect of how we express care, cultivate skill, relate to one another, make moral judgments, or assume responsibility for our actions in the world
22 December 2024
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Their words
So, we could be fooled into thinking like, "Oh, technology's going to go on forever, we're always going to find new advances." As opposed to sometimes things just flatten out for a long time. So, you have to be careful about that bias that we have living in this time of great acceleration.
1 November 2024
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korrents.com
Japan's decades of stagnation were caused by its shrinking working-age population rather than by its monetary policy.Their words
The key difference wasn't policy - it was demographics. Japan's working-age population is shrinking.
20 August 2024
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Their words
We got inflation, but we did not get the devastation that would have been caused by price controls and rationing.
5 February 2024
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korrents.com
High-quality data collection depends more on careful human execution than on machine learning techniques alone.Their words
Lots of ML techniques in the post can help with data quality, but fundamentally human data collection involves attention to details and careful execution.
9 November 2023
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Their words
What I’m saying is that there is an argument that if you wish for no war, you should be careful what you wish for because what’s required in order for there to be no war might be worse than a little war.
6 November 2023
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Their words
It is fair to say that, while economists expected the short end of the yield curve to reflect the higher rates needed to win the fight against inflation, the sharply steeper long end of the yield curve in the last few months has come as a surprise. I shall freely admit that I did not predict it.
1 October 2023
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Their words
As it turns out, after Schumpeter wrote most recessions were caused by either the bursting of asset price bubbles, monetary policy mistakes (unnecessary deflations), or sharp increases in the price of oil.
30 April 2023
17 February 2023
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Their words
The biggest issue is probably that we don’t control neutral networks enough to be able to ensure AI doesn’t harm humans. We can’t even control AI to not reveal internal prompts.
14 January 2023
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Their words, before
The Fed needs PCE inflation to average 1.96% for the remainder of the decade in order to hit their AIT target.
Their words now
I assumed they intended inflation to average roughly 2% during the 2020s.
1 June 2022
From one piece Fiscal Policy under Low Interest Rates 4 beliefs, in the piece's order there
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Their words
In some dimensions, fiscal policy has an advantage over monetary policy in stabilizing output. The main example is indeed the operation of automatic stabilizers, which act faster than monetary policy can.
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inflationinterest ratesgovernment
Their words
Governments have not been bailed out by their central banks. As I discussed earlier, central bank intervention does not reduce the overall liabilities of the consolidated government, just their composition. And it does not automatically lead to more inflation: It increases the size of the balance sheet of the central bank, but it does not increase the size of the non-interest-paying money stock.
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Their words
Multipliers are likely to vary a lot over time and space, but the bulk of the evidence is that they are different from zero, positive for spending, negative for taxes, and that they are stronger when monetary policy does not or cannot react to fiscal policy.
+ 1 more
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Their words
If a fiscal expansion takes place when output is already at potential, monetary policy is likely to tighten, leading to higher interest rates and thus a smaller effect or even no effect of the fiscal expansion on output.
1 March 2022
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